<b>Gold Price</b> Manipulation Reaches Mainstream Media | Gold Silver <b>...</b> |
- <b>Gold Price</b> Manipulation Reaches Mainstream Media | Gold Silver <b>...</b>
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Confirmed it's Reversal, Cutting Through it's
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Have Turned Up, Stop Waiting and Buy
- A Few Catalysts That Could Send <b>Gold Prices</b> Higher - Seeking Alpha
| <b>Gold Price</b> Manipulation Reaches Mainstream Media | Gold Silver <b>...</b> Posted: 06 May 2014 02:45 PM PDT If 2013 was the year of the big crash for gold, then 2014 could become the year of the truth for gold, evidenced by the attention that gold manipulation is getting in the mainstream media. Case in point: lawsuits against the Gold Fixing bullion banks started yesterday in New York. The NY Times reports the following:
As a reminder, five banks (i.e., Barclays, Scotiabank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Société Générale) are "agreeing" twice per day on a gold price, during the London Gold Fix. The banks are in a priviliged position to take advantage from the price they set (also via derivatives trading). Since the LIBOR scandal, the accusations have become more "accepted", while it was "unconventional" in the past. The NY Times continues:
As a reminder, we have reported extensively in the past, on a factual basis, that gold price manipulation was visible in the charts. Based on his statistical research, Dimitri Speck concluded that central banks started to influence systematically the price of gold as of August 1993. His conclusion comes in particular from his intraday statistics, where he observed several anomalies. First, since 1993, the price has been falling systematically during the trading session of COMEX in NY. Another trading anomaly is that during the PM fix the price systematically tends to drop significantly. The following chart is the result of some 16 years of recording intraday data. The sudden price drops are so sharp and systematic, that it can only point to intervention.
Besides, it appears that manipulation in the futures market (visible in the COT reports) comes on top of the revelations on the intraday charts. The point is that the interventionists increased significantly their activities in the futures gold markets in May 2001, what is visible in the COT report. Before that, the price was more suppressed through selling and leasing of gold. As soon as the futures markets got into play, an increasing number of price shocks have appeared with an increasing intensity. Obviously those price changes were mostly drops rather than increases. It becomes clear on the following chart. As of May 2001, the "climate has changed" because of the futures market, which is clearly an anomaly. The decline in the lower part of the chart, that started at that given point in time, shows the net positioning of commercials as a share of total positions. The line is significantly lower, proving that commercials are more on the short side.
So what's visible on the charts is that, since May 2001, the commercials have reinforced an ongoing trend that started in 1993. Our point is that the London Gold Fix is just the tip of the iceberg. It is the most obvious way of manipulation, but by digging a bit deeper, one can see, based on facts and figures, how manipulation is much more evident. Let's hope that justice finally takes place.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Confirmed it's Reversal, Cutting Through it's Posted: 05 May 2014 04:04 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE added $6.40 (0.5%) to close at $1,309. Silver gained a meager 2.8 cents (0.14%) to close at 1952c. Looking inside, gold behaved very well today. First, it cut through first resistance at $1,305. Next, it fended off an attempt to drive it below $1,300, where also now coincide its 200 day moving average (1,300.89) and 20 DMA ($1,300.84). All this makes Friday's strength, which mirrored sudden reversing strength on 24 April, confirm a reversal. Gold's MACD and RSI have turned up, and the rate of change has turned positive. How can we know the GOLD PRICE means it? A close tomorrow over the 50 DMA at 1,317.61 will help, but a close above $1,331 would help more. Any progress toward that number is positive. That gold closed higher today than its last high ($1,306.60) also adds weight to the case for a higher gold price. Like Gold, the SILVER PRICE dramatic reversal Friday confirms the reversal on 24 April. Closing above 1950c helps, but silver really needs a close above 1990c. 20 DMA stands at 1963, 50 at 2028c, 200 at 2085c. Bottom line? Silver and gold have doubled bottoms on a strong key reversal. That argues for higher prices. Y'all are sitting in the eye of a storm, surrounded by sunny complacency. Just wait till those hundred mile an hour winds whip through markets again. If the US dollar will oblige us by falling off its cliff, that would be a sufficient catalyst. At one point early in the day the Dow had fallen 136 points. It hit its 20 DMA (16,395) then turned and rose, ending the day up 17.66 (0.11%). S&P500 played the same game, but ended the day up 3.52 (0.19%) at 1884.66. "Juberous," as my grandmother would say, disapprovingly. However, both remain at or slightly above their downtrend lines. I am still expecting higher prices in May, but stocks are rolling over. Lo, count the days, for they are numbered. Mene, men, tekel upharsin. Dow in Silver fell 0.35% today, closing at 842.75 oz ($$1,089.62 silver dollars). It draweth speedily to a final peak. Dow in Gold is behaving a bit oddly. It fell today 0.57% to 12.62 oz (G$260.88 gold dollars). By the way, to give you an idea where you are in the world, in 1929 the Dow topped about $370 gold dollars, so in gold terms the Dow is lower today than its 1929 high. Anyhow, the DiG is moving sideways, unable so far to breach 12.92 oz (G$267.08). Could have topped, might make one more push up. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Have Turned Up, Stop Waiting and Buy Posted: 06 May 2014 05:35 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE lost 70 cents today to close Comex at $1,308.30. Silver added 7.8 cents to end Comex at 1959.8c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell slightly to 66.757 to one. (Perfect time to swap gold for silver. Call us.) (Y'all don't miss my special offer today at the bottom -- it's a good one.) That gold price action stinks, but I'm not sure whether it smells of sardines or government mackerel. US dollar index falls 0.5% and gold FALLS seventy cents? Oh, yes, and the check is in the mail. Either that indicates gold is awfully weak, an interpretation gainsaid by Friday's strong reversal close and key reversal, or the invisible hand of the Nice Government Men is acting to stem a panic out of the dollar thanks to a war in Ukraine and fear in the stock market. That fear is certainly present in the bond market. 10 Year yield has broken down (yields fall when bonds rise and vice versa). 30 year bond yield has also fallen out of bed and is bumping on the cold floor. When things don't add up, there's usually a NGM finger on the scale. But then, I am only a nacheral born durn fool from Tennessee and always suspicious of the yankee government, especially when they say they aim to he'p me. Let that be, since today didn't damage gold's rosy outlook, just roused raw suspicions. The GOLD PRICE remains above its 200 DMA (1,300.95) and 20 DMA ($1,301.38). Just above stands the 50 DMA ($1,317.00), which gold has a fair chance of climbing over tomorrow. Urgent that it cross $1,317 soon. With a high today at 1975 cents and a close at 1959.8c, silver is playing footsie with its 20 DMA at 1962c. Key reversal from Friday confirmed on Monday remains in place. Now silver: get up there over 2000c. Y'all ought to recall that when the SILVER PRICE pulls on its seven league books it can leap breathtaking distances. Don't judge silver by the stagnation of these last 5 weeks. Key reversals in silver and gold prices last Friday argue that silver and gold should move higher smartly. Gold and silver have turned up. Stop waiting to buy. As I was observing yesterday, it doesn't happen in nature that the US dollar index closes within one point for four days. Today the deception gave way and the US dollar index fell 40 large basis points (0.5%) to 79.15. That whispers rather loudly that the Dollar Index will smash through 79. The October low was 79.06, and that's the last sky-hook the dollar can grab hold of -- possible, but doubtful. Like drawing to an inside straight. Lest y'all forget, a falling dollar helps gold and silver Euro finally broke out with conviction and rose 0.38% today to $1.3928, above the upper channel line which defeated it in March. Once close over $1.3958 (last high) sends it sprinting for $1.4000 - $1.4300. Yen must be catching a safe-haven bid thanks to the turmoil in Ukraine. It broke out over the downtrend line from June 2013. Rose 0.45% to 98.36. If it clears 99.5 it could reach 103.5 cents/Y100. All this supposedly happened on good euro zone economic statistics, but since we know the euro government lies as facilely and continuously as our own, that's not much of an excuse. Recall that stalled markets often only appear to be dead, while under that mask they hide momentarily balanced fierce opposing forces. When one blinks, the other flashes a right hook. Owch. Stocks felt that right hook today. Nasdaq composite closed below its 20 DMA, Dow touched and S&P500 neared. Dow tumbled 0.78% (129.53) to 16,401.02. S&P 500 fell 0.9% (6.94) to 1,867.72. Today's reverses carry both indices back below the downtrend lines they broke above five days ago, and make that breakout look like a fakeout. Closes below the 20 DMA would secure that interpretation. Since early May hath not historically been a happy time for stocks, this might mark their turndown. Stocks have run out of wriggle room: must rise or die. Dow in silver has seemed the key indicator to me. After hitting a recovery high at 869.46 oz (S$1,124.15 silver dollars) on 1 May, it closed today down another 0.61% at 837.64 oz (S$1,038.01). A break this quickly is not what I expected, but never argue with a chart. MACD turned down yesterday, and other indicators have rolled over earthward as well. All this happens on stock weakness alone. What will happen when silver strength is added? Dow in gold lost 0.65% to 12.64 oz. (G$261.29 gold dollars). Closed below its 20 DMA (12.43 oz). Not far above its 200 DMA (12.20 oz). All needles pointing down. What will happen next? More gravity. QUICK SPECIAL OFFER I found some US $5 commemorative gold coins right close to their spot gold value, so I'm offering them to you. These United States gold coins commemorate various events and are minted to the ancient gold standard at 0.2419 troy ounces. I have only one (1) of the $10 commemoratives, so the first one to mention that will receive the one $10 (0.4838 oz) commemorative in lieu of two $5 commems. This price is based on spot gold at $1,308.3 and spot silver at $19.60. THE OFFER One lot of SIX (6) each US commemorative gold $5 coins at $338.00 each for a total of $2,028.00 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,063.00. That's a premium of 6.5% over melt value. NOTE: I will charge shipping only once per order no matter how many lots you buy. Special Conditions: First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail. Send email to offers@the-moneychanger.com Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee or outside the United States. All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order Three lots but if not available will take One lot." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS: 1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to THIS email, because it will not reach me timely. Please include your name, shipping address, and phone number in your email. Surprising as it is, we cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee. Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We will read your mind, but will have to charge you three times the price. Cheaper if you just supply your information so I don't have to read your mind. 2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down. If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you. 3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted. 4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail. 5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled. 6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. 7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. 8. Mention goldprice.org in your email. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A Few Catalysts That Could Send <b>Gold Prices</b> Higher - Seeking Alpha Posted: 05 May 2014 02:49 AM PDT
The price of gold has slumped for the past two years, leading some traders and investors to wonder if gold's best days are behind us. I believe this view is incorrect and I think gold's best days are yet to come! After the recent ten-year bull run in gold, it's not surprising that some traders and investors are having doubts about gold's future prospects. However, current geopolitical events in Ukraine, reallocation of non-Western central bank reserves, and gold market expansion could all be powerful catalysts for the next run higher in gold prices. Geopolitical events between Russia and Ukraine will fundamentally alter the way sovereign countries view and invest in gold and precious metals in the coming years. As some Western governments have begun imposing sanctions on Russia due to the current situation in Ukraine, some Russian assets held in the West or in Western accounts have been seized. Western governments' ability to seize Russian assets has increased the amount of leverage over Russian authorities. This has made the Russian government more vulnerable. Indeed, as the crisis in Ukraine began unfolding, there was a significant reduction in US Treasury securities held in a custodial account at the NY Fed, leading to speculation that Russia quickly withdrew their US Treasury assets several weeks ago, fearing potential US sanctions. As a result, Russia will be reluctant to add to their US Treasury holdings going forward. They are already the 12th largest holder of US Treasury securities at approximately $126B. In fact, Russia would be wise to diversify financial holdings away from US securities and invest a larger amount of reserves in gold and precious metals, which can be stored in Russian vaults safely out of reach from the US and other Western governments. Similar arguments can be made for China. The Chinese likely realize that the risk of future disagreement between China and the US on foreign policy prerogatives could one day lead to the US threatening to seize Chinese assets. In the future, I believe non-Western governments will find gold more attractive relative to other safe haven, low interest bearing assets like US government securities, as the reduced risk of losing gold assets to seizure outweighs the storage costs. In terms of opportunity costs, this argument is even more compelling if the global economy continues to remain in the grip of low inflation and negative real interest rates. Governments will increasingly engage in acts of financial warfare as we head further into 21st century and that will make physical gold a relatively attractive asset. If trust erodes among sovereign nations and future tensions rise, governments will be more likely to hold a higher level of reserves in gold rather than foreign currencies. For example, suppose Russia decided to respond to US sanctions using financial warfare methods of their own; they might swap the ratio of US Treasury securities relative to gold held as reserves at their central bank. Over a period of time, Russia could sell roughly $100B in US Treasury securities and use the proceeds to buy gold and other precious metals. That would have a large effect on supply and demand dynamics in the gold market. With current spot gold prices around $1,300 per oz. and 2013 annual production levels at 2,700 tons, shifting $100B of their $493B in reserves from US Treasury securities into gold would buy ~75% of 2013 annual gold mining production! That would have a big impact on the price of gold even if buying were spread out over a couple of years. Furthermore, if other countries such as China began a similar process of reducing US dollar holdings and allocating a portion to gold, that would push gold prices significantly higher over a period of several years. Gold prices today would be much higher if annual production increased greatly and the size of the gold market expanded. It seems like a paradox, as investors rightly believe most goods and asset prices decline as supply increases. However, the fact that the gold market is so small relative to global central bank reserves, means central banks are likely hesitant to significantly expand current gold reserve holdings. For example, if Russia allocated $100B into gold, it would take a significant amount of time to build the position, as a faster pace of buying would move gold prices against them. I don't believe China and Russia hold small amounts of gold relative to foreign currency reserves because they believe fiat currencies are more attractive and fundamentally sound; they do it because the current gold market is too illiquid. As the gold market expands in coming years, more gold will trade on a daily basis and increase liquidity. This will increase gold's attractiveness as a reserve holding. I recommend building a position in GLD as a long term investment. Admittedly, gold investors have become fatigued over the past few years given gold price declines and waning retail investor demand. However, sound investment decisions are not made on the basis of today's price action, but rather on an asset's future prospects. Given future geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar outlook, low interest rates and money printing, today's gold prices also offer a relatively cheap source of diversification and protection from central bank policy errors. Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Want more from this author? 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