When Will <b>Gold Price</b> Bottom? :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b> |
| When Will <b>Gold Price</b> Bottom? :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b> Posted: 03 Jun 2014 10:35 AM PDT
By: Ed_Carlson
Gold lost $46/oz. last week to close at $1,245.60 and, while it might not feel like it, gold is still up $43.70 for the year. My price forecasting model generates a target of 1,206 for this decline. Seasonally, gold tends to make a bottom of undetermined degree in the period from June to July. This year, inflation expectations have me wondering if gold might bottom earlier rather than later during the two-month period. In the chart below, inflation expectations (blue) show a large jump-up this spring and can be seen at the right. Inflation expectations are highly correlated to the price of gold and have a tendency to lead gold at bottoms. They've gotten a big lead this time (bigger than most instances) and I have to believe that the only thing holding gold down is waiting for seasonality to be right for a bottom. Another week like last week would get gold to my price target. I find two different Middle Sections pointing to lows on Friday June 13 and Monday June 16.
Want to know more about the work of George Lindsay? Order your own copy of the George Lindsay Training Course at SeattleTA. Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University. © 2014 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Rose with the <b>Gold Price</b> Closing at $1244.30 Posted: 03 Jun 2014 03:46 PM PDT
Be still, my beating heart! The GOLD PRICE rose sixty cents today (not fifty-nine, but sixty) while silver rose 2.3 cents, an amount no self-respecting person would bend over to pick up off the sidewalk if he saw it lying there. Gold ended at $1,244.30 and silver at 1873.2 cents. By the way, Commitment of Traders reports show that gold dropped last week not due to longs selling, but huge new short positions. Nothing new there. I expect that the GOLD PRICE will turn around either from here or between here and $1,230. The SILVER PRICE could re-visit its June 2013 lows. The last week has done a lot of damage to silver and gold prices, and delayed a rally further. Makes no difference how long this drags out, it won't be much longer now. Sometimes, it seems, things take longer than they do. Whenever things seem to work out illogically, I go back and check my premise, which is, INFLATION DRIVES GOLD and SILVER BULL MARKETS. Fed creates inflation for government spending and to keep the borrow-money-into- existence money system going. So if y'all are worried about silver and gold prices, get on the internet and look up the answers to these questions: 1. Has the US Federal Reserve been abolished? Are there any plans to abolish it? 2. Has the US government balanced its budget? Is there any plan to balance it? 3. Where does one-half of US GDP arise? Hint: Government spending. 4. Does any statesman appear anywhere with plan and resolve to abolish the Fed or curtail government spending, let alone restore sound money? 5. Can pigs fly? Once you've completed that research, you'll understand why I remain so bullish on silver and gold prices. Stock rally gets thinner and thinner, and so does the precious metals' plunge. But I reckon they can get thinner still. While I'm thinking about it, the euro, scrofulous spawn of centralizing central banks and bureaucrats, has been dropping since 8 May, nearly a month with ne'er a rally. More, everybody in the world expects the ECB criminals to announce more inflation one way or another. In other words, once the ECB news hits Thursday, the euro might undergo a "sell the rumor/buy the news" rally. The euro's trend against the dollar has turned down, but a rally would burn the shorts and send them running, which would boost the euro. It closed today up 0.21% to $1.3627, but that's still below its 200 day moving average. Can y'all even IMAGINE how much money, mind power, and productive capacity is wasted merely on currency exchange rates? If the world had only two monies, gold and silver, as it did for 6,000 years until 125 years ago, all of that ink, thought, and talk could be applied to some useful purpose, like indicting and trying central bankers. US Dollar index backed up 8 big basis points (0.1%) to 80.60 after yesterday's 80.73 high. Trading up one day and down two. It remains, however, above its moving averages (200 is at 80.47) and above the downtrend line, so lazy as it is, remains in an uptrend and should rise further. Japanese yen dropped 0.16% to 97.54. Broke down yesterday below its uptrend line, but remains in the same range that has imprisoned it since February. All stock indices fell today, but not decisively. Dow lost 21.29 or 0.13%, S&P500 eased off 0.73 to 1,924.24. Miss not that the bluer chip indices are rising faster than the others as risk appetite decreases and investors roll over to what they consider "safer" stocks. That does not foretell sharply higher prices. Dow measured in metals backed off today but 'tis all sound and fury, signifying nothing -- yet. Just be patient. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
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