The <b>Gold Price</b> Dropped $2.60 Closing at $1295.10 |
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Dropped $2.60 Closing at $1295.10
- Silver Wheaton, Pan American Hammered by Low Silver and <b>Gold</b> <b>...</b>
- China Uncertainty "Driving <b>Gold Prices</b>" Says SocGen | Gold News
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Dropped $2.60 Closing at $1295.10 Posted: 19 Aug 2014 07:05 PM PDT
Nothing hit the gold price really hard. About 8:30 the US dollar, wino of fiat currencies, began to rise and about the same time the GOLD PRICE began to fall. It began the day poking as high as $1,303.70, but dropped and dropped until 1:00 p.m, down to $1,294.70. Closed a bare 40 cents above the low. Well, it didn't close below $1,295, but it's only a hair above the uptrend line from the June low. Should gold break that line it would drop toward the uptrend line from the December low, which tomorrow stands at $1,270. Reversing upward requires a gold close above $1,325. The SILVER PRICE barely crossed under that downtrend from the August 2013 high today, not really enough to call it a breakdown. Just below about 1925c stands lateral support, and beneath that 1860c. Stepping back from the chart, the last 14 months seem to paint a bottom on both silver and gold, but the next couple of days could be as much fun as a self-directed tooth extraction with wire pliers and a hammer. Durn! What in the world is wrong with me? Why can't I get with the 21st century? What can't I look at the news of markets hanging on Janet Yellum's next words at the meeting of Our Masters at (the appropriately- named) Jackson Hole and not feel that same warm enthusiasm that Winston Smith felt looking at Big Brother on the Telescreen? Why doesn't my heart melt with gratitude and why don't thankful tears run down my cheeks? Why do I continue in my stubborn, self-willed exile from the love of Big Brother? I reckon because it's all too durned silly, and I'm too much of a hick to recognize Our Masters, let alone respect them. Besides, if they really were Masters of The Universe, as they were touted, wouldn't they look better and smarter than Janet Yellum and all the rest? But look here at me! I hardly know how to scrape a hog, and here I am knocking my betters. I ought to be ashamed (but I ain't). Stock market's on another tear. Dow rose 80.85 (0.48%) to 16,919.59 while the S&P added9.86 (0.5%) to 1,981.60. It's the best of all possible worlds. Apparently these indices aim to put in a double top somewhere near or slightly above where they've been before. Dow today closed barely above that uptrend line from the March 2009 low. Recall it had fallen through that back at July's farewell. Stock strength and metal weakness today sent the Dow in Gold and Dow in silver soaring. Dow in silver rose 1.36% to 871.92 oz (S$1,127.33 silver dollars) and if it doesn't reverse soon will make a double top with the 1 June high at 892.99 (S$1,154.57). Rapidly approaching overbought on the RSI and full stochastic. Dow in Gold ended the day higher by 0.65%$ at 13.05 oz (G$269.77 gold dollars). This corrects a little over 50% of the fall from 9 June to 7 August, so this chart looks altogether different to the Dow in Silver. The 61.8% correction level is above at 13.12 oz. Buy the news, sell the rumor. We'll have to put up with this I reckon until Yellum speaks on Friday and nothing comes out of her mouth but hot air. Till then I just have to grin like a jackass eating sawbriars and bear it. Another thing not helping gold is the US dollar. It rose 31 basis points (0.38%) today to 81.93, finally breaking free of that consolidation either side of 81.50. Target is 82.75 at least. Euro today broke down from an even-sided triangle to make a new low for the move at $1.3321 (down 0.32%). Looks like the fun's just beginning for the Euro. Yen lost 0.33% to 97.18 and looks hopeless. Bond and note prices have been rising, anticipating that Big Mother will be announce low interest rates long into the future. We are now watching interest rates retrace the upward progress they made during 2013. Shoot, maybe the law of gravity is all wrong. Maybe it ain't no law a-tall. Maybe Our Masters really are alchemists who can turn paper into gold. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Wheaton, Pan American Hammered by Low Silver and <b>Gold</b> <b>...</b> Posted: 14 Aug 2014 04:24 AM PDT Silver futures traded at around $19.85 on Wednesday afternoon, down from their 52-week high of $25.11 and not much above the 52-week low of $18.65. Low prices coupled with still-high costs typically mean lower operating profits — and that is what we saw from two silver companies. Silver streamer Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) posted earnings per share (EPS) after markets closed on Wednesday of $0.18 on revenues of $148.57 million. The company was expected to post EPS of $0.24 on revenues of $185.96 million. In the same quarter a year ago, the company posted EPS of $0.20 on revenues of $166.89 million. Silver Wheaton reported cash costs of $4.72 per silver equivalent ounce, down from $4.77 in the second quarter a year ago. The silver equivalent realized price fell from $23.05 per ounce a year ago to $19.83 this year. Gold sales accounted for about 30% of Silver Wheaton's sales, and the company's realized gold price of $1,295 per ounce was included in a 14% drop in the silver equivalent price. Shares closed at $27.18 on Wednesday and were trading down 1.8% at $26.69 in Thursday's pre-market session. The stock's 52-week range is $19.23 to $29.17 Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) said it posted adjusted EPS of $0.01 per share on revenues of $200.8 million. In the second quarter a year ago, the company posted a loss of $0.07 per share on sales of $175.58 million. The consensus estimates called for EPS of $0.03 on revenues of $195.91 million. Including a $10 million charge to inventory values and "abnormally high" income tax expense, Pan American posted a net loss of $0.04 per share. The company's consolidated cash costs per ounce of silver came to $12.06 and the company's average realized price for silver during the second quarter was $19.58 per ounce, down from $22.68 in the year ago quarter. Gold, which accounts for about 25% of Pan American's sales, also suffered from tumbling prices. A year ago, gold fetched $1,423 per ounce compared with $1,289 in the second quarter this year. Pan American's shares closed at $15.11 Wednesday night and are trading down about 0.7% Thursday morning at $15.00. The stock's 52-week range is $9.78 to $15.97. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| China Uncertainty "Driving <b>Gold Prices</b>" Says SocGen | Gold News Posted: 12 Feb 2014 10:54 AM PST Gold prices likely to spike, fall back, if China hits "hard landing"... GOLD PRICES are being increasingly led by uncertainty over China's economic growth and stability, according to research from French investment and London bullion bank, Societe Generale. Summarizing gold-price analysis first published last month in his team's 2014 outlook, Dr.Michael Haigh, head of commodities research, writes that the relationship between China uncertainty – as measured by an index of relevant articles in the South China Morning Post – and US Dollar gold prices "became significant in the summer of 2011. "In August 2013, the relationship rose to levels never seen before." Barron's magazine, noting last year's sharp rise in Chinese gold consumption to new record levels, adds that "China's demand for gold suggests a desire for a reliable store of value, not just as a hedge against a decline in the Renminbi, but also because of internal credit problems. "Wealthy Chinese are trying to get their money out of the troubled domestic economy, and are increasingly investing in gold." SocGen's research also surveys 100 investment clients of the bank, and contrasts their outlook for gold prices and other assets if China uncertainty leads to a "hard landing" against the same survey's results from January 2013. Whereas 12 months ago, before the 2013 crash in gold prices, respondents thought gold could drop 5% if China's economic growth slowed to a stall, now the outlook would be for flat prices overall, but within "a possible range of gold +29% to -30%." Dr.Haigh agrees with that direction for prices, saying gold "would first rise on a flight to quality, and then fall as Chinese demand flagged." Doubts over Beijing's policy response to a hard landing, however, could "underpin" gold prices in line with the uncertainty research above. "A 20% increase in uncertainty could drive gold prices 3% higher," SocGen concludes. |
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