21 August 2014 - Gold Fields earnings rise as low-cost mines boost output

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• 21 August 2014 - Gold Fields earnings rise as low-cost mines boost output
• 21 August 2014 - Gold Refiner Predicts Curbs by India May Be Permanent
• 21 August 2014 - Fading volatility promises long period of gold stagnation
• 21 August 2014 - 俄罗斯连续四个月增持黄金储备 总量升至20多年高位

21 August 2014 - Gold Fields earnings rise as low-cost mines boost output Posted: 21 Aug 2014 03:33 AM PDT From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=250775&sn=Detail JOHANNESBURG (REUTERS) - South African bullion producer Gold Fields reported a 20 percent rise in quarterly profit on Thursday despite a fall in prices and production as output increased at its lower-cost mines. But the company also reported fresh setbacks at its flagship South Deep project, its last mine in South Africa, where production has been curtailed by maintenance and a safety review. Delays at South Deep, a mechanised operation where a team of Australian engineers has been brought in to iron out problems, has been a source of annoyance to investors. But Gold Fields said the review "will make the mine safer and position the mine for an improved performance in 2015". Gold Fields' adjusted headline earnings increased to 24.6 cents per share in the quarter to the end of June from 20.5 cents in the previous quarter and versus a loss of 36 cents for the same quarter a year earlier. Production fell by 2 percent to 548,000 ounces compared to the March quarter and the gold price also slipped to an average of $1,288 an ounce from $1,293. But the company's lower-cost mines boosted output and earnings. Output at the Granny Smith mine in Australia rose to 85,000 ounces from 65,000 ounces while all-in costs fell to $692 per ounce from $910. (Reporting by Ed Stoddard; editing by Jason Neely) Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=250775&sn=Detail

21 August 2014 - Gold Refiner Predicts Curbs by India May Be Permanent Posted: 21 Aug 2014 03:19 AM PDT From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-21/gold-refiner-predicts-curbs-by-india-may-be-permanent.html By Prabhudatta Mishra Controls on gold imports by India will probably be permanent as the world's largest consumer after China seeks to sustain a reduction in the current account deficit, according to the country's biggest refiner. The government may keep a rule that requires importers to supply 20 percent of their cargo to jewelers for re-export or introduce a system of quotas or licenses, said Rajesh Khosla, managing director at MMTC-PAMP India Pvt. The industry has to recognize there will be a "quantitative restriction" whatever policy is in place, he said in an interview in New Delhi. India represented 25 percent of global demand last year and overseas purchases fell 43 percent in the first half of 2014 because of the curbs, World Gold Council data showed Aug. 14. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley kept the limits in his budget in July as he sought to narrow the deficit and support the rupee. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking to boost growth from near the lowest in a decade and may have other priorities. The Rise and Fall of Gold "The government has more important issues like infrastructure, manufacturing and agriculture to address," said Himanshu Gupta, a precious metals analyst with Religare Commodities Ltd. in Noida, near New Delhi. "In the second or third year, the government may address issues like gold, but not in the immediate future," he said by phone on Aug. 19. Gold for immediate delivery advanced 6.7 percent in 2014 on increasing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East and traded at $1,281.67 an ounce in Singapore today. Futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India declined 1.5 percent this year to 27,995 rupees per 10 grams. Increased Smuggling The curbs helped cut the deficit to a five-year low of $32.4 billion in the year ended March 31 from a record $87.8 billion, the central bank estimates. The rupee rallied about 13 percent from a record low in August last year. That may prompt the government to reduce the import duty from 10 percent, while maintaining the re-export rule, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director with the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. Unofficial imports almost doubled to 200 tons in 2013 as official flows fell 4 percent to 825 tons, the London-based council estimates. India buys almost all its gold from overseas and the country increased the import tax three times last year. The controls will stay as the government may want to keep dollars for imports of oil and machinery for infrastructure than for non-productive gold, Khosla said on Aug. 19. Economic Priority "Continuation of the quantitative restriction is going to be a permanent feature," said Khosla, who in April correctly predicted that the new government would persist with the controls. "Gold is the least priority for the government because it is not seen as a productive asset." Official imports by India fell to 351 tons in the first half from 620 tons a year earlier, WGC said in a report on Aug. 14. Demand in the second quarter fell 39 percent to 204.1 tons. Overseas purchases may total 750 tons in the financial year that began on April 1 as traders boost shipments to meet festival demand starting next month, said Rajan Venkatesh, managing director for bullion at ScotiaMocatta India, a unit Bank of Nova Scotia. Imports were 670.4 tons in 2013-2014, the Commerce Ministry estimates. The restrictions will cause a shortfall of about 300 tons in supplies this year which may be met through smuggling, Khosla said. The country could meet the gap with aggressive promotion of a gold monetization plan to tap citizens' holdings, estimated by the WGC at about 25,000 tons, he said. Gold Mobilization "If the gold monetization policy fails, the gap will continue to be filled by smuggling, as is happening now," Khosla said. "The need is to make the gold deposit scheme user-friendly. This is the only long-term solution and will give you the ability one day to turn around and say India has stopped importing gold." A mobilization plan by banks has not been effective as owners need to deposit a minimum of 500 grams, Khosla said. The plan should be modified to allow owners to place as little as 20 grams, he said. A national network of purity verification centers would help increase use of the plan, he said. MMTC-PAMP's plant located 35 kilometers (22 miles) from New Delhi airport has increased capacity to 150 tons of gold annually. The refinery, owned 72 percent by Switzerland's MKS Holdings and 28 percent by MMTC Ltd. (MMTC), will probably produce 80 tons of gold in the year ending March 31 from about 40 tons a year earlier, Khosla said. Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-21/gold-refiner-predicts-curbs-by-india-may-be-permanent.html

21 August 2014 - Fading volatility promises long period of gold stagnation Posted: 21 Aug 2014 03:05 AM PDT From:http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/21/gold-volatility-idINKBN0GL0JL20140821 BY JAN HARVEY AND CLARA DENINA (Reuters) - Ultra-calm trading conditions in gold are becoming self-perpetuating as a persistent lack of volatility frustrates investors seeking a return, pushing them further away from a market that analysts say could be becalmed for years. Gold, which saw a dramatic reversal last year after a 12-year bull run took prices to record highs in 2011, has seen the spread between its daily price highs and lows narrow to just $15 an ounce this year on average, from nearly $25 in 2013. Implied volatility, an estimation of an asset's future volatility, has dropped in gold to around 12 percent this month from an average of 19 percent in August last year, and from highs of nearly 60 percent in mid-2008. With the dollar strengthening, equities showing a better return, and signs of inflation still notably absent from most developed economies, the metal has run out of reasons to rise. "We are pretty unexcited by the outlook of gold," Charles Morris, head of absolute return at HSBC Global Asset Management, said. "It could stay in this range for another five years. "If inflation is under control for a long period of time, then gold will be under control for a long period of time, and because you don't get a yield, it is a waste of money to have a large position in gold." Gold is not the only market to be losing momentum. Volatility in the global foreign exchange market approached historic lows in July, while average daily volumes dropped by almost 14 percent, data from FX settlement system CLS showed. "What the central banks have done to provide liquidity has pushed down volatility in the commodity market, and interest rates market, and indeed equities," Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall said. "They all feed through to every part of the traded economy, so it is a problem for FX traders, it is a problem for interest rates traders, it's a problem across everything." As an asset in its own right, gold does not lack price drivers at the moment. The problem is, they are working against each other. Federal Reserve policy is slowly normalising after years of ultra-loose conditions, which had fed into rising gold prices. The U.S. central bank has signalled that it is ready to start thinking about raising interest rates, probably next year. That should be pushing prices lower, as should a rise in the dollar index this year. But working against that is uncertainty over the long-term inflationary effects of the monetary stimulus measures that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Gold has also taken support from outbreaks of violence in Ukraine and the Middle East, which some fear may destabilise a fledgling recovery in the European Union and push up oil prices. The fact that this unrest has not done more to push prices is adding to investors' caution over gold. "There has been very little and short-lived correlation between the Middle East problems, Russia and Ukraine with gold itself," Adam Laird, investment manager at Hargreaves Lansdown, said. "There is a lot of concern among smaller investors that the market has not been able to react to wider political events." STORE OF VALUE Not all buyers are seeking price volatility. Those who buy metal as a store of value, for instance, prefer a stable market. This has particularly been true in India, historically the world's biggest gold consumer, where buying dried up during the violent price moves that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But supply to Indian consumers has been constrained by restrictions on gold imports as the government tries to get its current account deficit under control, meaning its response to a more appealing price environment has been limited. Meanwhile buyers in China, which has recently overtaken India as the world's number one gold consumer, appear much less happy with price stability. Consumer demand is not in any event going to lead to a repeat of gold's scorching price rise of the last decade. The doubling in gold prices in the three years to September 2011 was overwhelmingly due to investment flows, as funds piled into the metal as a haven from financial market risk. What would turn gold around would be a significant rise in inflation, which few economists see happening any time soon. Until another clear driver emerges, investors prefer to stay on the sidelines. "Essentially, you have plenty of supply, (and) demand is likely to fall because of low volatility, rising interest rates and a strong dollar," HSBC's Morris said. "You put all this together and you think: 'why are people going to come running'?" Source:http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/21/gold-volatility-idINKBN0GL0JL20140821

21 August 2014 - 俄罗斯连续四个月增持黄金储备 总量升至20多年高位 Posted: 21 Aug 2014 03:01 AM PDT From:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140821/082720077050.shtml 生意社08月21日讯 据俄罗斯央行[微博]周三(8月20日)表示，2014年7月俄罗斯共增持9.4公吨黄金(1281.10, -14.10, -1.09%)储备，总价值约4亿美元，这也是该央行连续第四个月增持黄金储备，目前总量以上升至20多年来高位 俄罗斯央行官网最新数据显示，7月俄罗斯总黄金储备增加至1104公吨(约合3550万盎司)。而根据国际货币基金组织[微博](IMF[微博])的数据，作为全球第五大黄金储备国，目前俄罗斯总黄金储备至少是1993年来的最高水平。 俄罗斯连续四个月增持黄金储备总量升至20多年高位 (俄罗斯黄总量金储备变化单位：百万盎司来源：彭博社) IMF数据还显示，由于不断增持黄金，今年俄罗斯黄金储备总量已超过瑞士和中国，同时相比2005年末增加了几乎两倍。 由于俄罗斯在今年3月吞并克里米亚，导致该国与西方的关系陷入冷战以来最糟糕的时期，6月欧美曾纷纷对俄罗斯实施制裁，这也导致卢比兑美元在该月暴跌约6.3%。 自乌克兰危机爆发以来，已经有超过2000多人死于冲突，欧美方面将这次危机的根源归咎于俄罗斯总统普京私下支持东部分裂分子，尽管其从未承认。不过，这样的地缘政治紧张局势也刺激金价在今年反弹7.7%，7月国际黄金均价为1311.82美元/盎司，根据这个价格，俄罗斯7月黄金储备总价值在3.98亿美元。 德国商业银行(Commerzbank)首席商品研究员Eugen Weinberg对此表示，"俄罗斯是今年最大的黄金储备买家，这可能是为达到分散外汇储备的长期策略的一部分。" Weinberg还强调，"如果未来俄罗斯与西方继续僵持不下，并把战略定位转移至东方，则将导致欧元兑美元及人民币汇价进一步下跌，可能对金价提供支撑。" 据世界黄金协会(WGC)上周四(8月14日)公布的数据显示，2014年全球央行可能增持500公吨黄金储备。2013年该数字为409公吨，2012年为544公吨。 另外，据GFMS数据显示，2013年俄罗斯黄金总产量共计248.8公吨，为全球第三大产金国。 Source:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140821/082720077050.shtml

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