9 June 2014 - China Looking To Dominate Gold Market With International Shanghai Gold Exchange |
| 9 June 2014 - China Looking To Dominate Gold Market With International Shanghai Gold Exchange Posted: 09 Jun 2014 03:41 AM PDT INVESTING | 5/27/2014 @ 11:40AM (Kitco News) – Not only is China the world's top gold-producing and consumer nation but according to media reports, the country now has plans to become a major player in market pricing. According to reports, the People's Bank of China has given the Shanghai Gold Exchange permission to build an international gold-trading platform in Shanghai. The exchange has already contacted foreign banks including HSBC, ANZ, Standard Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and the Bank of Nova Scotia and invited them participate in a new international board. China's announcement to create an international price platform comes during a time of intense scrutiny of gold benchmarks. On Friday, the British regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, fined Barclays Bank Plc GBP26 million for failing to adequately manage conflicts of interest between itself and customers, as well as "systems and controls failings," connected to the London gold fixing. Jessica Fung, commodity analyst from BMO Capital Markets, said that this move by the Chinese central bank appears to be extremely opportunistic. "It is quite clear that the East is trying to dominate the market," she said. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, agreed China is trying to capitalize on the turmoil in the London gold cash market as a result of the problems with the London gold fix. Although the timing is opportunistic, Fung added that this is part of the Chinese government's commitment to open up their markets. She pointed out that the Hong Kong exchange's purchase of the London Metals Exchange last year is another example of how the country is slowly embracing international markets. In August 2013, China surprised markets by giving approval to Australian bank ANZ and HSBC to trade gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Fung recently visited China and said the perception of domestic traders is changing and they are getting more comfortable and confident about the idea of trading in international markets. She added that the country has major credit risk problems that they have to deal with and the only way to resolve them is by looking outside their borders. "One of the reasons for the property bubble in China is because nobody knows where to put their money," she said. "The government has to allow investors to move aboard and spread the risk." However, the question on a lot of analysts' minds is whether an international Shanghai exchange will be able to dominate the market? The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest gold exchange in the world; however, it currently provides a platform for domestic financial institutions, mining companies and retailers. Hansen said because of the problems in the cash market, the SGE could dominate London; however, it would take a significant change in the market for China to dominate the futures market in North America. "The investment flows are still bigger than the physical demand," he said. "The liquidity is still on North America." Fung agreed that as long as there are still controls on Chinese markets and the yuan remains tightly regulated, an international Shanghai won't be the global standard. |
| 9 June 2014 - 经济学家：供需面将支撑金价 下半年表现将逆转 Posted: 09 Jun 2014 03:28 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-09/165506109.html 2014-06-09 08:45:27 来源：FX168 在上周大跌后，金价本周大部分时间都位于1240美元/盎司上方波动，在周四欧洲央行会议后，金价重新回到了1250上方。不过黄金市场仍然是偏悲观，尤其夏季本来就是黄金表现比较平淡的时期。 不过American Precious Metals的贵金属经济学家兼总经理Jeff Nichols认为，黄金的基本面有所改善，短期内将有反弹，在今年晚些时候则会有较大的上涨。 Nichols对长期美国和全球经济持悲观态度，但他同时认为，即使全球经济真的在好转，这对金价的上涨也是没有影响的。 Nichols指出供需面的因素，尤其是中国和印度的大量黄金需求。 另外，今年前五个月SPDR黄金ETF流出量仅为9吨，和去年全年的550吨比有大幅下降。去年黄金ETF的巨大流出量被认为是金价下跌的一大原因。目前ETF 流出量将是比较有限的，而像去年4月份那样的金价暴跌也是不太可能重演的。不过ETF的流出仍然显现出市场的负面情绪。 Nichols认为，莫迪上任后印度对黄金政策的改变会带来需求增长，这可能是扭转市场情绪的潜在因素。另外乌克兰局势则是另一个支撑，虽然近期似乎已不再是关注焦点，但Nichols认为，一旦牵涉进俄罗斯的军事行动，并且俄罗斯被支撑都会带来避险需求。 中国和印度对黄金的需求量几乎将全球所有新开采的黄金都覆盖掉，因此，Nichols认为，在这样的情况下，尤其在黄金ETF的流出放缓的情况下，金价走势必然会逆转。 此外，Nichols认为就全球宏观经济面来看，西方国家的商品和服务需求仍然不足，很多关键国家推行紧缩措施，他认为这是不合适的，削减政府支出并不能推动私人支出。 Nichols认为，美联储认为经济回到了2008年之前的增长水平，因此开始缩减宽松政策，但如果真正的经济增长并没有回来，那么将快速逆转黄金市场的情绪。他对今年下半年黄金的表现有非常积极的信心。 |
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