3 June 2014 - Physical Shortage Of Gold And Silver, Manipulation, Economy

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3 June 2014 - Physical Shortage Of Gold And Silver, Manipulation, Economy Posted: 04 Jun 2014 03:14 AM PDT From:http://goldsilverworlds.com/investing/physical-shortage-of-gold-and-silver-manipulation-economy/ Gold Silver Worlds | June 3, 2014 | Category: Investing In this month's Markets at a Glance, Eric Sprott presents a collection of thoughts on why he thinks precious metals is a compelling investment right now. He looks at three major topics: physical shortage in gold and silver, manipulation of precious metals prices, and the dire state of the economy. All this points to the same conclusion, i.e. the fundamental strength of precious metals investments. On physical demand and the shortage of precious metals: The Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO) remains very low, with extended periods of time in negative territory (Chart 1). Why is Germany's repatriation of their 674 tonnes of gold taking so long? As of March 2014, only 69 tonnes had made their way back, a pace of less than 5 tonnes a month. If there is no shortage of gold, why are the U.S. and U.K. exporting so much gold to Switzerland? (which itself exports most of it to China). According to some estimates, China consumed over 4,800 tonnes of gold in 2013, implying that about 3,600 tonnes were drawn from global stocks (i.e. western vaults) to satisfy demand. All this Chinese buying is reflected in the monstrous amounts of gold deliveries on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Dubai is building a new gold refinery capable of handling 1,400 tonnes, and current global gold refining capacity is about 6,000 tonnes (world mine production is less than 3,000 tonnes a year). Why would they need so much refining capacity if physical demand was not buoyant? As the major gold miners cut back on exploration, future mine supply will remain constrained. Another "temporary source of supply" (900 tonnes) has been ETFs, which have been raided for most of 2013. However, as Chart 2 shows, they have now stabilized. Other things being equal in demand, where will that 900 tonnes of supply come from in 2014? Interestingly, the Silver Institute, in its 2014 World Silver Survey, noted that there was a 96 million ounces shortfall in 2013 due to strong physical demand. On manipulation: The CME Group might introduce daily limits on gold and silver price moves to limit the extreme volatility we have seen in recent years (i.e. to prevent, going forward, any large spikes up in price). Investigations into the gold fixing mechanism by the German financial regulator BaFin and the subsequent withdrawal of Deutsche Bank from the gold fixing suggest something is wrong. More recently, Barclays got fined 26 million pounds because one of its traders manipulated the gold fix to avoid paying on a gold derivative. Some market participants are suing the banks responsible for the gold fix over alleged manipulation. The company that ran the Silver fix "suddenly" decided to stop running the process. As argued in the January 2014 Markets at a Glance, we find it strange that in 2013, gold ETFs were raided, whereas silver, which experienced the same price declines, stayed in the ETF's vaults (Chart 2). This suggests that the ETF's gold was needed to satisfy physical demand. On the macroeconomic environment:  The real level of inflation is high and much higher than official figures (Chart 3). Precious metals have historically hedged against inflation. Speaking of inflation, the large amount of money printing and the bloating of U.S. Central Bank's balance sheet will most likely end badly. According to Jürgen Stark, former European Central Bank board member, central banks have lost all ability to control the economic situation. In other words, we live in a fictional sense of security. Vladimir Putin thinks that "China and Russia need to ensure their gold and other currency reserves are secure". At the same time, the Russian Central Bank continues to be a large buyer of gold and a seller of U.S. Treasuries. To conclude, we believe that any rational investor considering this collection of facts would consider, like us, that gold prices are long overdue for a re-rate. As we all well know, almost all markets are manipulated; and the recent Barclays settlement is one example vindicating our views (more to come?). Source:http://goldsilverworlds.com/investing/physical-shortage-of-gold-and-silver-manipulation-economy/

3 June 2014 - 专家：金价还在长期牛市中 低价是买入机会 Posted: 04 Jun 2014 03:12 AM PDT From:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/20140602/182919292646.shtml 2014年06月02日 18:29 FX168 上周，黄金(1245.70, 1.20, 0.10%)终于跌破了维持数周的三角震荡区间，市场呈现一片悲观景象，大量预测金价会继续走低。 Opulenta Limited的交易主管Tiho Brkan认为，金价会最终会跌破1200美元/盎司的支撑水平，但仍然处在长期的牛市中。 目前，黄金熊市较历史价格基础来看，还没有到极端超卖的程度。只比2009年的修正略低。而1975年1976年的熊市、1983年1985年的熊市和1996年1999年的熊市都有更大的下跌幅度，尤其1980年泡沫后的下跌较今天的价格比都是更大的下跌幅度。 然而，熊市并不只以价格计，也同样以时间计。如果目前黄金仍处在熊市中，并且跌1200后，那将是40年来持续时间最长的熊市。目前的熊市和1996年1999年的抛售非常相似。如果真的以当年的走势来看，将会有更多稳固，并且最终会有更低的底部出现。 不过Brkan仍坚持认为目前处在一个长期的牛市中，并且是买入机会。 Source:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/20140602/182919292646.shtml

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