Gold price | The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20 |
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20
- Does the <b>Gold Price</b> reflect true gold Demand and Supply? :: The <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $14.6 or 1.1 Percent <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Have Posted Their Lows with Gold Closing at <b>...</b>
- <b>Gold Price</b> Holding Up Well But Next Catalyst Unclear | Gold Silver <b>...</b>
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20 Posted: 11 Apr 2014 05:21 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE backed down $1.40 (0.7%) today to $1,318.70, while that rascal silver gave up 14.5 cents (0.1$) to 1993.3. Gold's loss signifieth nothing, as it remains above its 200 ($1,298), 50 ($1,314), and 20 (1,311.25) day moving averages, as well as support/resistance at roughly $1,318. Every indicator I watch points higher, so why am I gnawing my nails? Gold's moving slowly and that scoundrel silver won't climb up high enough to confirm gold's move. Of course, that is easily explained by the weakness in stocks, but still . . . The GOLD PRICE weekly chart shows upward bias, too, and gold stands above its 18 week MA ($1,284.43) and 50 week MA ($1,312.79) and barely above its downtrend line from August 2011. All burners lit. The SILVER PRICE actually fell back from its 20 DMA (2007c) today and closed below it. 2015c keeps stopping it. In fact, silver needs to throw a leg over 2050c and run. Yes, yes, all the indicators point higher, but this is awfully slow and trying. Back off and review the last year. The gold price must better its $1,434 peak from last August, then climb over $1,550 where it was clobbered last April. Silver needs to beat its recent 2218c high, then its 2512c August high, and then 225c where it fell off a year ago. Until gainsaid, the double bottom in June and December says silver and gold prices won't drop any lower, and that they have begun their next leg up. Bull markets always climb a wall of worry, so y'all ought to expect that now. Meanwhile gold and silver's best friends remain the Federal Reserve, world central banks, and the yankee government since their policies are bound to send them higher. Wall Street bled and bled this week, and no bandaids are in sight, let alone tourniquets. US dollar index broke, too, while silver and gold held up and the white metals (platinum and palladium) also gained. Nothing normal about this situation, and a stock market rout always carries in its bosom the threat of contagion to other markets. 2008 was not so long ago. Stocks had their worst week since memory runneth not to the contrary, and today only opened more blood vessels. Technically the damage astounds me. Dow lost 385.96 points this week or 2.4%, 143.47 points today (0.89%) 7 closed at 16,026.75. That's 3.3% lower than the high close on 3 April. Damage doesn't stop there. Dow closed today beneath its 50 day moving average ((16,172) -- 20 DMA (16,331.25) was left behind yesterday. Recall that in November last year the Dow "threw over" its upper boundary line. Today it crossed beneath it again, and for good measure punched thru the bottom Bollinger Band. February's low was 15,340.89. The Dow could fall much, much further as Don't overlook the Nasdaq Composite. It's lost 8.3% since its downtrend began on 5 March. Since 2 April it has lost 6.5%. It, too, languisheth far below its 20 and 50 DMA, and treadeth not far from its 200 DMA (3,936.25). Then there's the S&P500. Down 2.6% this week, it lost 17.39 (0.9%) today to end at 1,815.69. 200 DMA stands at $1,761.43 and the last (February) low at 1,737.92. Why do I mention the 200 DMA? In a rising market the price spends most of its time ABOVE the 200 DMA. From time to time in large corrections it will re-visit its 200 DMA, and wide knowledge of this fact means that investors will wait to buy there, and thus support the market. A bfreak below the 200 DMA is very bad juju. This is a rout, like First Manassas. The blue army is running back to Washington and throwing away rifle and knapsack as they flee. Mark, however: it is not impossible for stocks to return and make one last high in May. Dow in Silver dropped 0.54% today (4.36 oz) to 802.94 oz (S$1,038.14 silver dollars) in what appears to be a downtrend renewed after the correction from March through 1 April. Dow in Gold has really tanked. Dropped another 0.91% today to 12.16 oz (G$251.37 gold dollars) and skidded to a stop smack atop the 200 DMA. Bottom of that correction was 11.62 oz (G$240.21) so the DiG has not far to travel to confirm unequivocally a new downleg. US dollar index experienced a Niagara week, and waterfalls don't flow up. Gained 10 basis points today to end at 79.57. Stinks. Sits below its 20 and 50 DMA, but won't confirm a new debacle until it closes below 79. Euro has been the chief beneficiary of the dollar's woes, but is now stuck below its last peak. Ended today flat at $1.3876. Yen has met its major downtrend line and top of its 2 month trading range. Must fish or cut bait or row back to the dock. Flat at 98.42 cents/Y100. Could escape skyward. I watch the Philadelphia Bank Stock index divided by Gold because that reveals which way the investing public's confidence is leaning. The spread is a fraction, with the bank stock index as the numerator and the gold price as denominator. Thus when gold is rising faster than the Bank Stock Index the denominator is growing faster than the numerator so the graph falls. Voilà, chart is here: http://bit.ly/1sOiOAy This spread peaked early in January, sank with the gold rally/stock correction into end-February, rose as stocks rallied and gold corrected, and since 1 April has cascaded down to close at its 200 DMA today. It has twice already reached this point in March, not a hopeful sign. This suggests investors appetite for risk and confidence in financial markets is dropping as they adopt the motto, "In gold we trust, not banks." Another measure of dropping confidence or panic, call it which you will, is the yield on the 10 year treasury note. It has also looked like Iguaçu Falls lately, and has even fallen below its uptrend line to 2.619%. Bear in mind that yields (interest rates) fall as bonds rise, and bonds rise because there is more demand for the safety they offer. Sizeable shift like this rolls snake-eyes for stocks. Y'all enjoy your weekend! - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Does the <b>Gold Price</b> reflect true gold Demand and Supply? :: The <b>...</b> Posted: 11 Apr 2014 10:50 AM PDT
The Gold FixDespite the furore surrounding the Gold Fix [unfairly, we believe] it is a singularly determined attempt amongst commodities to set a twice daily price that does reflect demand and supply of gold, at those moments. To understand this we have to see what happens at the Fixing sessions. The five banks involved in fixing the morning and afternoon Fix of the gold price open a conference line to each other at 10.30a.m. and at 3.00p.m. in the afternoon. At the same time each bank opens their lines to contact their main clients, who could include mining companies, refiners of gold, jewellers, gold dealers and all the main professionals in the gold market. In turn these professional open their lines to their main clients which could also include central banks as well as wealthy individuals and other gold markets. These then react to a price put up by the Chairman of the Fix, representing his bank. This price is sent down the lines and each participant states the amount they are net buyers or sellers of. Each bank 'nets out' the demand and supply among his own clients before passing on the net order to the Fixing. At each price, orders down the line change and the price adjusted accordingly. Once the market is agreed upon a particular price all transactions are done at that price. Bulk of Gold contractedHowever, the amounts dealt do not include all the gold bought and sold in the market at that time. Many dealers, miners and jewellers refer to the Fixing price of gold and contract to deal at a price that reflects, usually, the afternoon Fix. This is deemed to be the most reflective of global demand and supply, at that particular moment, in time. But the fact that amounts of gold are dealt outside the market, with reference to the Fixing price, tells us that much of the world's gold and supply does not go through the London market. The claim that 90% of gold's demand and supply goes through the London market is therefore conjecture, not fact. It is impossible to say just how much gold is priced by reference to this Fix and not dealt in the market place, but it is substantial. Outside the main marketsFor instance, we believe that the bulk if not all of China's internal gold production does not pass through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, but is sold directly to the agency that buys gold for the People's Bank of China. This is around 430 tonnes per annum currently. These miners, it is thought are paid in the Yuan equivalent of the Gold Fixing price. Refiners selling directly to clients [who can be central banks dealing directly with them, banks taking stock, for delivery to markets elsewhere, large jewellers seeking a reliable, regular, source of gold, etc.] will follow the same practice. Most gold-backed U.S. exchange-traded funds use the London afternoon gold fix to calculate their net asset value, which in turn is used by ETF custodians to calculate their fees. The U.S. Mint and Royal Canadian Mint also price their products based on daily London p.m. gold fixes, or average weekly fixes. Many miners are active listeners to the fixing process as sellers. Reflecting Marginal Demand and Supply of GoldTherefore, as it the case with most commodity markets, the amount of gold actually bought and sold during the Fixing may well reflect the marginal demand and supply that falls outside the large contracts due to unforeseen changes in demand and supply. It is also where speculators who deal in physical gold buy and sell often to support their positions in the futures and Options markets on COMEX in the U.S. COMEX, while a huge financial gold market only sees around 5% of these contracts result in a physical movement of gold. That's after one party or the other gives notice that he wants physical delivery or supply. Such manipulation of gold prices is most frequently seen just ahead of the month end when contracts mature. Manipulated?Charges that insider trading goes on in the Fixing, we believe are false. What does happen is that clients accessing the Fixing process then deal in the gold market on COMEX on the basis of the process. Add to this high frequency trading and you can see where the profit opportunities are. But we believe that few of these operators would risk dealing in physical gold in the Fixing, as that may work against them, increasing their risks. More profit lies in dealing in Futures and Options, on the side, we feel. What is transparent to all involved in the Fixing [who have an interest in that price] are online in the Fixing, so see a very transparent process going on in which they can partake. Those not involved but with a need to reference the price in their dealings, usually do not deal at the Fixing, but wait for the price to be Fixed before finalizing prices. ConclusionHence the changing daily prices at the Fix, while not representing the total amount of gold bought and sold are the only reasonable reflection of the current gold price. We therefore expect that price to be treated as a reliable reflection of the current demand and supply of gold. Hold your gold in such a way that governments and banks can't seize it! Enquire @ admin@StockbridgeMgMt.com Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com
By Julian D. W. Phillips Copyright 2014 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved. What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market. Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.
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| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $14.6 or 1.1 Percent <b>...</b> Posted: 10 Apr 2014 03:24 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE is behaving as it should, climbing today through the next resistance level, about $1,318. The SILVER PRICE, frankly, stank. It rose to 2040c (above the magic 2015c) and poked its head through the downtrend line, then fell back to close below the 20 DMA (2015c). What giveth? MACD just shouted "BUY!" for both today. Proving once again there the world holds even BIGGER fools than a nacheral born durned fool from Tennessee, the Greek government's bond auction today raised about $4 billion, $500 more than the original target, and bids for $23.6 billion were received. I reckon they sold it at the 5.3% they wanted to pay, but didn't see that reported. Buying these bonds nearly equals, but is not nearly as good as, loaning a clubhouse full of drunks money to buy cases of whiskey. Blood flowed on Wall Street today, spurting in bright red arterial bursts. Russell 2000 plunged 2.78%, Nasdaq tumbled 3.1%, Nasdaq-100 sank 3.13%, Dow dropped 1.62% and S&P500 lost 2.1%. Dow closed at 16,170.22, 266.96 points lighter than yesterday and turning decisively down. Not up, down. S&P500 lost 39.1, a massive 2.1%. This is moving past puking in the wastebasket and on to contemplating diving out a window. Dow closed a gnat's whisker above the 50 DMA (16,168.79) and not far from the long term uptrend line it threw over in November. S&P500 closed below its 50 DMA (1,843.34). This could easily reach 1,800. Dow measured in precious metals today resumed its downward plunge. Closing at 12.25 oz (G$253.23 gold dollars), the Dow in Gold capsized beneath its 20 and 50 DMAs (12.43 and 12.32 oz), locking in its downtrend. Ending at 804.85 oz (S$1,040.21 silver dollars), the Dow in Silver tripped its 20 DMA (811.21 oz). Both have signaled SELL in their MACDs. The US dollar index has gushed over the cliff with a five (5) day cascade. Closed today down another 0.14% to 79.47. A close below 79 sends it much lower. Dollar's weakness most likely comes from the market's apprehension interest rates will stay low. Euro has shot back nearly to its last peak ($1.3958), and today closed up another 0.25% at $1.3888. Shows you don't have to be healthy at all to be rented if you're the only horse in the livery stable able to stand. Yen continues to gain, up another 0.45% today to 98.52 c/Y100, but needs to gain a tadge more to break out upside Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Have Posted Their Lows with Gold Closing at <b>...</b> Posted: 09 Apr 2014 04:27 PM PDT
Yes, yes, markets and the FOMC conspired to leave me with egg all over my face. Or did they? Silver fell 28.7 cents to 1975.5c while the GOLD PRICE lost $3.20 to $1,305.50. But isn't that the durndest thing: gold's now trading in the aftermarket at $1,314.10 (as I expected) and silver at 1991c. Can anybody spell paint-the-tape? How did it play out? About New York opening somebody sold lots of gold, driving the price down form $1,308 to $1,301. Traded sideways from 9:00 to 3:00 p.m, gapped down from $1,305 for an instant, then gapped above $1,306 and shot clean to $1,315. Then it backed off but held above $1,310. SILVER PRICE? Ditto. GOLD/SILVER RATIO today rose to 66.085, not a helpful sign, and silver persists in lagging behind and not closing above 2015c. Ahh, but today silver's low at 1960c painted a double bottom for the move with an earlier low at 1958c. In fact, silver has four times defended this level. That could be good OR bad. Still I am persuaded that silver and GOLD PRICES have posted their lows and, once silver gets into gear, will rise. Closes below $1,277 or $1,960 would gainsay that interpretation and open the door to lower prices. On the remote chance I might be right, y'all ought to buy a little silver and gold. Today near Pittsburgh a high school student with two kitchen knives stabbed 20 other kids before the principal tackled him. This brings to mind a number of questions: How long before the Obama administration acts to outlaw kitchen knives and end tragic incidents like this forever? Why do people need those assault-style butcher knives in their kitchens anyway, since an ordinary dull table knife will cut everything but meat? Why do people need more than one sharp knife to run a kitchen? Why do knife-nuts need so many knives? Are serrated knives EVER safe? It also raises another line of questioning: Were there no chairs in that high school that someone could pick up and throw at the knifer? Were the students so trained to call 911 that nobody knew how to protect himself? Was the principal the only person trained to tackle knifers? Finally the third set of questions, along the "Is it real or Memorex?" line. Did this really happen? If it did really happen, what sort of psychotropic drugs was the knifer taking? What other important thing happening in the world did this event distract our attention from? If all this weren't crazy enough, ponder this: Greece, yes, the Greek government which is bankrupt from now until, oh, about a.d. 2255, is about to re-enter the bond market to sell 2.5 billion Euros worth of bonds. Top that: they are looking for an interest rate of 5.3% or less. Mean as I sound, I have to say it: any loony who buys those bonds deserves what he will get, which will be another default. The market is not benevolent. Minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released today and showed that all the members agreed to jettison any objective standards for action. That is, they would keep on tapering and suppressing interest rates until, well, I reckon until it FEELS good. Why this should make stock investors more optimistic -- to learn that the pilot has no idea where he is going and won't know to land when he gets there -- I could not say, but stocks did rise today, although they may have risen for propitious astrological signs, for all I know. Listen, I know that a 1.1% increase in the Dow (up 181.04 to 16,437.18) and the S&P500 (up 20.22 to 1,872.18 makes everybody feel rich, but today hasn't changed the charts. I'm not saying they won't change and turn up, but this alone didn't do it. It did close both above their 20 DMAs, but still below relevant resistance and coming off a downward key reversal. Dow in Silver jumped up 2.6% to 831.42 (S$1,074.97). Remains above the 20 DMA but the MACD has signaled sell. Dow in gold rose 1.28% to 12.59 oz (G$260.26 gold dollars). Trying to roll over downward. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Holding Up Well But Next Catalyst Unclear | Gold Silver <b>...</b> Posted: 10 Apr 2014 01:51 PM PDT Gold has shown strength in today's trading session. Last week, the yellow metal was trading near $1280, a huge support zone and key inflection point which has held very well. Now, it seems that $1300 is holding as well, a sign of strength, at least short term. Dan Norcini discusses the technical picture in more detail. He explains the current state of the gold price based on the charts and his expectations going forward. Yesterday's FOMC minutes continue to put pressure on the US Dollar, but even more importantly, acted to depress US interest rates. That is the key driver for gold in my view at this time. Gold seems to struggle when interest rates here in the US rise as investors see little threat of inflation and seek out assets that will throw off some sort of yield rather than the yellow metal which only provides gains if it continues to rise in price. In a benign inflation environment, many do not believe gold will continue to rise. From a chart perspective, gold continues to remain within the broad trading range outlined for some time now. It will need a catalyst of some sort to kick it higher or send it lower. What that might be remains unclear to me. The chart shows that gold has run into some selling near the resistance level noted near the $1320 region. Above that, resistance is layered in approximately $20 increments, first near $1340 and then again near $1360. Downside support comes in near and just above $1300 followed by our old friend near $1280.
On the ADX, which indicates a trendless market, the bulls have regained the short term advantage. Stochastics are rising as price moves up in the range showing the near term friendly picture. How this market handles this $1320 level today and tomorrow, will be a key as to how to approach it. The trading range is pretty broad (up near $1400 on the top and $1280 on the bottom). I cannot see what would cause this market to break out of its current range at this time. The Dollar would either have to drop off sharply breaking down below 79 on the USDX or interest rates would have to plummet sharply here in the US, along with perhaps a larger selloff in the broader equity markets to take it up out of the top end of the range. On the downside, we would need to see a sharp rally higher in the US Dollar and a surge in interest rates above the 3% level in the Ten Year to take it down below $1280 in my view. Take a look at Eurogold. Notice how it too is essentially rangebound. The ADX reveals the lack of a clearly defined trend. The top of the range is up near the 1000 euro region; the bottom down near 880 – 860. If gold could clear the 1000 euro level, we might finally have something to write about. If the ECB were to actually proceed with their chatter about their own version of QE and forcing banks to pay interest on reserves held there at the ECB, then we might finally see the Euro weaken sharply enough to send gold higher and through that 1000 level.
Apparently Europe is having the same problems over there as we are over here – a lack of inflation and in their case, an excessively strong currency, which no one over there wants. The gold mining shares are providing little if any support to gold judging from their mediocre performance today. One gets the impression that they do not know whether to follow the broader market lower or the metal higher. Either way, it is not exactly a ringing endorsement of further strong gains in the actual metal. |
In short, no it doesn't! We will look at why not, in this article.
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