Spot Chart | <b>CHART</b>: $1,200 <b>gold</b> price the new normal? | MINING.com | News2Gold |
- <b>CHART</b>: $1,200 <b>gold</b> price the new normal? | MINING.com
- ETF <b>Chart</b> of the Day: Going for the <b>Gold</b> | ETF Trends
- <b>CHART</b>: Hedge funds won't put money on 2015 <b>gold</b> slide | MINING <b>...</b>
- Trader Dan's Market Views: HUI / <b>Gold</b> Ratio hits lowest level ever <b>...</b>
| <b>CHART</b>: $1,200 <b>gold</b> price the new normal? | MINING.com Posted: 28 Dec 2014 03:59 PM PST  Lion Chrome Smelter in South Africa. Source: Glencore But the metal failed to consolidate gains during the summer doldrums, falling to a near four-year low November 6 at $1,143. The recovery from there was swift and gold is heading into the final week of 2014 basically where it started the year. Gold 2014's highs and lows were 20% or $237 apart, making it the quietest year since 2008. Last year it was 40% or $488 – gold's most volatile 12 months since crazy 1980. The subdued trading in gold came despite potential market shocks including the slide in oil, the rampant dollar and a variety of geopolitical shocks during 2014. And cost of supply may now be providing that elusive price floor gold bulls have been looking for since 2011's record high above $1,900. As this chart by metals consultancy GFMS and Thomson Reuters shows towards the $1,100 mark, 60% of the industry would be loss-making on an all-in basis. Gold miners' problems are only exacerbated say the authors by falling by-product credits, such as silver and copper which are down roughly one third and 10% respectively from the 2013 average. Average costs in the industry sits around $1,200 and is falling as miners shelve projects, reduce exploration expenditure, defer or cut back on sustaining capital. A strong dollar helps to contain costs outside the US and the tanking oil price reduces a major input cost. While the price may well fall to $1,100 in the year ahead, multiple quarters of prices at these levels would force loss-making miners out of business and reduce supply, helping prices to recover.
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| ETF <b>Chart</b> of the Day: Going for the <b>Gold</b> | ETF Trends Posted: 30 Dec 2014 09:00 AM PST  Trading in the Precious Metals space continues to interest us heading into year end with Gold notably gapping higher this morning, with GLD (SPDR Gold Trust, Expense Ratio 0.40%) rising above its 50 day MA for the first time in two weeks. The fund has seen more than $3 billion leave in 2014, leaving it an asset base of approximately $27 billion, more than 4 times the size of the second largest ETF in the segment IAU (iShares Gold Trust, Expense Ratio 0.25%) which has $6.1 billion in AUM. The next biggest ETF in the category in terms of asset size is SLV (iShares Silver Trust, Expense Ratio 0.50%) which has had a prosperous year in terms of attracting new assets (+>$250 million), and has grown to $5.2 billion fund. Silver and Platinum also appear to be rallying substantially in sympathy with Gold this morning, so our eyes are also on PPLT (ETFS Physical Platinum Shares, Expense Ratio 0.60%). With metals on the move higher this morning UGL (ProShares Ultra Gold, Expense Ratio 0.95%) and GLL (ProShares UltraShort Gold, Expense Ratio 0.95%) will likely be in heavy focus, as well as AGQ (ProShares Ultra Silver, Expense Ratio 0.95%) and ZSL (ProShares UltraShort Silver, Expense Ratio 0.95%). In fact, AGQ is actually the third largest Leveraged Commodity ETF in the U.S. listed landscape currently with more than $286 million in AUM, larger than either the Bull or Bear leveraged Gold strategies. Several other niche oriented or leveraged options in the Precious Metals space that may see larger than normal activity also include several offerings from VelocityShares, specifically USLV (VelocityShares 3X Long Silver ETN, Expense Ratio 1.65%) and DSLV (VelocityShares 3X Inverse Silver ETN, Expense Ratio 1.65%), as well as UGLD (VelocityShares 3X Long Gold ETN, Expense Ratio 1.35%) and DGLD (VelocityShares 3X Inverse Gold ETN, Expense Ratio 1.35%) which remain somewhat small in terms of overall asset sizes but seem to creeping onto more institutional/trading radars slowly but surely. SPDR Gold Shares
For more information on Street One ETF research and ETF trade execution/liquidity services, contact Paul Weisbruch at pweisbruch@streetonefinancial.com Street One Financial is an educational/research firm utilizing the Broker Dealer services of Precision Securities, a FINRA registered Broker/Dealer. |
| <b>CHART</b>: Hedge funds won't put money on 2015 <b>gold</b> slide | MINING <b>...</b> Posted: 18 Dec 2014 02:56 PM PST Compared to December 2013, bullish bets by large speculators in gold futures are three times higher going into 2015
 That figure was within shouting distance of the more than 7-year high above 80,000 lots or more than 8 million ounces reached the week before according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Those bearish bets turned out to have been misplaced. After closing 2013 at $1,205 the price of gold jumped out of the starting gate, rising consistently to reach a high of $1,380 in March. "This time around the bearish exposure is currently only 3.8 million ounces and if we add the gross longs we find that the net position in the market is currently 10.5 million ounces long. "Bullish bets in other words are three times greater than at this time last year which indicates a certain hesitancy in throwing the kitchen sink after a potential bearish conviction."  Source: Saxo Bank, Bloomberg, CFTC Image by Anthony Catalano |
| Trader Dan's Market Views: HUI / <b>Gold</b> Ratio hits lowest level ever <b>...</b> Posted: 31 Oct 2014 07:43 PM PDT I have been detailing this ratio chart quick often of late as I am of the opinion that the gold shares still lead the price of the metal. My concern for the outright price of gold has been noted as this plunging ratio has been a very good indicator for the future direction of the gold price thus far. Much is made by the same culprits as usual about big sell orders on the Comex, takedown of this, takedown of that, the usual, blah, blah and more blah, as an attempt to buttress the notion that this fall in the price of gold has been orchestrated by the powers that be to discredit the metal. The problem with this theory in this environment is that the MINING SHARES have been LEADING the metal lower. Gold is merely following what the miners have been very effectively signaling now for some time since this ratio began declining. I cannot tell you how disconcerting it is to read the same discredited individuals ( who will not do us all a favor and simply go away) pedaling yet another "special insider claim" that they are privy to the origin of the sellers that "have hit gold with big sell orders eating through all the bids". What else is to be expected when large speculators are entering a market on the sell side or bailing out from off the long side, as their positions grow increasingly underwater? Tiny offers? Small lot sell orders? That is not the nature of today's computer-driven markets and anyone who trades for a living knows this quite well. Those who continually attempt to make some sort of big deal about big sell orders as IF they are coming from the powers that be are nothing but pompous windbags spouting hot air that deludes only the unsuspecting and naïve. Also, are we to assume that some nefarious evil agent has been working over the share of each and every mining company PRIOR to then going in and "taking down the gold price"? If the mining shares lead the way down in gold, then to be consistent with the latest gold perma-bull spin, someone would, by necessity, have had to first orchestrate a takedown of the mining companies that comprise all of the gold stock indices, not to mention have been selling all of that gold that has been withdrawn from GLD. Here is the simple truth - the Dollar has been surging against its competitors; Central Banks have signaled their intention to either keep interest rates low or to provide stimulus or both; and commodity prices in general are falling. In that environment, one in which inflation is not a concern, stocks remain the GO TO asset class. Until that changes, gold is not going to attract sufficient capital flows from serious money managers and hedge funds to keep it levitated. Since the path of least resistance in the metal is therefore lower, that is exactly where it is going. There is no mystery whatsoever to any of this nor is there any conspiracy to force the price lower. Specs simply are not interested in an asset that pays no yield and which requires an overall economic environment in which its price is more likely to head higher. Along this line, take a look at the HUI/Gold ratio chart once again. the only reason I note it once more is because something historic occurred with it today; it hit the lowest recorded level in the history of the HUI.  Again, this is HISTORIC. As such it signals either more losses lie ahead for gold or an abrupt turnaround for the mining shares. Since both the HUI and especially the GDXJ closed near their weekly lows, that does not look too likely at the moment. In closing, let me say this... gold's downside breach of $1180 has as much technical significance as its breach of major chart support near the $1530-$1525 level in April of 2013. That too was a TRIPLE BOTTOM that failed.  Note that gold spent 18-19 months moving sideways in a broad range between roughly $1800 on the top and $1530-$1525 on the bottom. When it broke down below that range at the TRIPLE BOTTOM it proceeded to fall another $345 before bottoming out and forming the base of a new 16-17 month long sideways trade above what proved to be another TRIPLE BOTTOM at $1180 that failed today. The question now becomes will gold do what the pattern calls for, namely eventually leg down somewhere between $300 and $345 before bottoming and carving out yet another base? That could put the metal down as far as $835 - $880 before reaching a new bottom once more. Of course that seems inconceivable to many but back when gold was trading in the range between $1800 and $1525, it seemed inconceivable at that time that it could ever fall as low as below the $1200 level! Please note that this is not a prediction; it is merely an observation based upon an analysis of former price action which extrapolates POTENTIAL. Much of course depends on the overall direction of the US economy and whether or not Central Bank activity proves to be insufficient to deal with the deflationary headwinds buffeting it. One thing that inclines me to not rule out a move this low is that HUI to Gold ratio charted and commented upon above. That is so far off the mean that some sort of reversion seems as if it is necessary to correct it and bring it back more within the norm. As stated before, it can do so either by the mining shares gaining on the price of gold or the price of gold falling faster than the overall price of the shares. One last look at the LONG TERM CHART shows some Fibonacci retracement levels sketched in to provide some shorter term targets if the selling intensifies.  The downside is now open first to near the $1150 level. Failure there targets that $1100-$1090 level..... |
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1 Comment for "Spot Chart | CHART: $1,200 gold price the new normal? | MINING.com | News2Gold"
At the MCX, Gold futures for February 2015 contract closed at Rs 27,977 per 10 gram, down by 0.38 per cent after opening at Rs 28,049, against the previous closing price of Rs 28,085.