15 August 2014 - Global gold demand returning to positive long term trends |
- 15 August 2014 - Global gold demand returning to positive long term trends
- 15 August 2014 - Russia may become World No. 2 gold miner this year
- 15 August 2014 - 200 tonnes of smuggled gold to enter India this year: World Gold Council
- 15 August 2014 - 我们漫游到货币政策宇宙以外 而金价已稳健筑底
| 15 August 2014 - Global gold demand returning to positive long term trends Posted: 15 Aug 2014 01:40 AM PDT From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=250183&sn=Detail Author: Lawrence Williams LONDON (MINEWEB) The latest World Gold Council (WGC) quarterly Gold Demand Trends analysis as usual makes for some interesting reading. With stats prepared by Thomson Reuters GFMS it at least brings us a regular consistent snapshot of what is happening in global demand for the precious metal and this time around it sees the demand as 'recalibrating' towards the previous long term trend. Gold demand in 2013 was exceptionally strong – despite, or perhaps because of, the gold price crash - with an enormous surge, initially mostly at end Q1 and in Q2 from China and levels continued at a high rate for the remainder of the year too. Indian demand early on was also high ahead of the anticipated, and subsequently applied, import restrictions. Not surprisingly, the latest WGC figures show a sharp decline on those for a year ago with global demand put at 964 tonnes for Q2, down 16% on the same period of 2013. But overall demand remains strong and the WGC reckons that the latest figures show a return to the old longer term growth patterns in gold demand as consumers (again mostly in China) pulled back and consolidated their activity. As an aside analysts are quick to point out that Chinese demand appears to be heavily down year on year, but fail also to point out the truly exceptional nature of the 2013 figures, and compared with earlier years this Chinese demand is still very strong. Last year the supply to meet this exceptional demand arose out of sales out of the gold ETFs, which has largely dried up this year so in terms of the absolute supply/demand parameters not much has changed and supplies could yet be under pressure as the year continues. Marcus Grubb, the WGC's Managing Director of Investment Strategy, noted that Chinese demand will still likely total 900 to 1,000 tonnes and Indian demand 850-900 tonnes, depending on continuation, and levels, of ongoing import restrictions and the strength of the country's monsoon, Grubb. This demand from the world's two biggest gold consumers still thus remain at high historical levels, albeit down from the perhaps exceptional levels experienced in 2013. Commenting on this latest Gold Demand Trends report Grubb said: "In the context of an exceptional year last year where we saw record consumer buying and investor sell-offs, this quarter's demand continues to demonstrate a return to long-term trends, illustrating the uniquely balanced nature of the gold market. Jewellery consumers continued to digest the exceptional purchases of 2013 and investors also rebalanced, pulling back from the extremes we saw last year. Overall the gold market is stabilising following the extraordinary conditions we saw in 2013." On specifics, the WGC analysis notes that global jewellery demand remains strong with India and China a key element in this sector purchasing 154 tonnes and 143 tonnes respectively. In India in particular this is traditionally a quieter period anyway and the report suggests that consumers continued to digest opportunistic purchases made in 2013 and adopted a more "needs" based approach to their jewellery buying. Indian jewellery buying was also affected by high value purchases being restricted in the run up to the election and the continued impact of import restrictions on gold. It will be interesting to see how all this develops when the WGC publishes its next report for Q3, traditionally a much stronger period anyway for Indian jewellery consumption, but demand could still be muted given the new government there has not relaxed the very heavy gold import duties. But gold smuggling comes into the equation here and that is much more difficult to quantify, but is likely pretty significant in the overall Indian supply/demand balance. On the more positive front for gold. The WGC figures show that there were continued signs of recovery in some Western markets as jewellery demand in the U.S. rose by 15% to 26 tonnes and in the UK rose 21% to 4 tonnes as consumer confidence continued to grow in line with the economy and yellow gold came back into fashion. Another important area in gold demand over the past couple of years has been Central Bank demand and this has been continuing, notably with Russia in particular being a major buyer as it prepares itself for an economic confrontation with the West over Ukraine. The WGC notes that overall Central Banks bought 118 tonnes of gold in Q2 2014, a rise of 28% versus the same period a year ago. It was the 14th consecutive quarter in which central banks were net purchasers of gold driven by a number of factors, including a continued diversification away from the US dollar and the backdrop of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iraq and Ukraine. Net investment demand (investment in bars and coins combined with exchange-traded funds (ETF) investment) was up 4% to 235 tonnes. Investment in bars and coins stood at 275t for Q2 2014, a fall of 56%, following unprecedented levels of buying during the same period last year, but last year this was countered by big outflows from the gold ETFs. In Q2 2014, many investors were uncertain about the direction and momentum of the gold price, while traders in price sensitive markets were far less active due to low volatility. The quarter did see an improvement in investor sentiment towards ETFs compared to last year. Outflows stood at 40 tonnes for the quarter, a tenth of the redemptions seen in the same quarter a year ago. The bulk of these outflows occurred at the beginning of the quarter, turning to marginal inflows by the end. In value terms, the WGC saw gold demand in Q2 2014 as being US$40bn, down 24% compared to Q2 2013. The average gold price of US$1,288/oz was down 9% on the average Q2 2013 price. The WGC notes that the key findings from the report are as follows: · Jewellery remains the biggest component of gold demand, representing more than half of all demand at 510 tonnes. Although it is down 30% year on year, jewellery has been extending the broad upward trend from the base established in early 2009. · Central banks increased purchasing by 28% to 118 tonnes compared with the same period last year, as they continued to use gold as a hedge against risk and diversify away from the US dollar. · Total investment demand (combined investment in bars and coins and ETFs) was up 4% to 235 tonnes. However, there was a 56% decrease in bar and coin demand from 628 tonnes in Q2 2013 to 275 tonnes in Q2 2014 following unprecedented levels of demand last year. ETF outflows were 40 tonnes, a tenth of the outflows seen in the same period last year · Taken together, these factors show that gold demand is reverting to long term trends after an extraordinary 2013. · Total supply for the quarter was up 10% year on year solely due to the growth in mine supply. · H1 recycling is the lowest since 2007 although the figures for Q2 2014 are up 1% to 263 tonnes compared to last year - a relatively low figure compared to the historical average. · Total supply increased by 10% to 1,078 tonnes with some big new projects coming on stream and some miners working higher grades to counter unit cost rises. The WGC expects supply to peak in 2014 and plateau over the next 4-6 quarters. Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=250183&sn=Detail |
| 15 August 2014 - Russia may become World No. 2 gold miner this year Posted: 15 Aug 2014 01:27 AM PDT From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=250258&sn=Detail Author: Lawrence Williams LONDON (MINEWEB) Not content with its Central Bank being this year's world's largest gold purchaser, Russia looks like it might be moving into second place in the World gold mine production table and overtaking Australia which currently holds this position. Last year Russia mined just under 8 million ounces of gold – around 248.5 tonnes – as opposed to Australia's 8.53 million ounces – 265.3 tonnes. But Russian gold output is reported as rising 26.6% in the first half of the year and if this level increase continues in H2 Russian full year output could total 10.1 million ounces – or 314.6 tonnes, although with normally far higher output in the second half of the year this kind of annual percentage increase may not be achievable. Thus industry sources in Russia estimate full year production at a rather more conservative 8.84 million ounces - 275 tonnes – a rise of only just over 10% but one suspects they may be erring on the side of caution, particularly as previous 2014 Russian production estimates had suggested mined gold output could fall back 5% this year.
Even should Russia see a 20% plus expansion in its gold output this year it will still have a long way to go to challenge China's lead. But it is perhaps significant that the two nations which are likely to top the gold production table this year are also believed to be the two biggest hoarders of new gold into their official reserves. Russia is presumed to be more transparent in this in reporting its gold reserve figures to the IMF while China's official reserve figure has remained at 1054 tonnes for over 5 years now, but it is widely believed to be considerably higher than this – perhaps two to three times the official figure – maybe more. China is expected to announce a major gold reserve increase at a time it feels is politically expedient to do so. Some Western observers feel it is holding back in doing this to not create waves in the gold price. This would enable it to buy more at today's lower prices rather than see the price shoot up, which it likely would should it make any really substantial gold reserve increase announcement Both these nations are believed to be buying in gold, whether openly or surreptitiously, in order to reduce their dependence on U.S. dollars and the two nations together, which are already making bilateral agreements to trade in their own currencies and by pass the dollar, are the most likely to challenge dollar hegemony in world trade, although this may not materialise for some years yet. It is also notable that of the world Top 5 country official reported gold holdings, Russia and China hold the smallest proportions of their total foreign currency reserves in gold and they may feel that some catch-up is necessary, particularly if they are going to play a significant role in some form of future reserve currency role in world trade.
The Moscow times quotes head of the Russian gold producers' lobby, Sergei Kashuba, as saying "They are increasing production to compensate for a gold price decline," Total gold production was reported by the newspaper as rising by 26.6 percent year-on-year to 116.7 tonnes in January-June, including output from mines, from gold as a by-product of other metals, refined from scrap, and gold containing concentrate. Typically Russian output picks up strongly in the second half with the early months of the year being hit by the harsh Russian winter. Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=250258&sn=Detail |
| 15 August 2014 - 200 tonnes of smuggled gold to enter India this year: World Gold Council Posted: 15 Aug 2014 01:14 AM PDT KOLKATA: Smuggled gold in the country will be around 200 tonnes this year, according to World Gold Council (WGC). The demand for the yellow metal in the current year has been pegged at 850 -950 tonnes, and the major offtake of more than 500 tonnes is expected between July and December. Talking to ET, Somasundaram PR, managing director, India, WGC, said, "With the upcoming wedding season and favourable monsoon, it's likely that the demand in the second half of the year will be normal. We expect annual demand to be 850-950 tonnes." On lowering of import duty on gold which is as high as 10 per cent, the WGC chief said, "We don't think that the new government will take any short-term measure and then again come up with measures to curb import."
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| 15 August 2014 - 我们漫游到货币政策宇宙以外 而金价已稳健筑底 Posted: 15 Aug 2014 01:06 AM PDT From:http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20140814/12926184_0.shtml
"我们目前已漫游到货币（政策）宇宙以外了（译者注：货币政策效果已不明显）。我们认为，目前正在进行中的货币试验都会产生很多意想不到的后果，其影响程度是今天很难估量的。与纸币不同，黄金，这一无需支撑的货币，仍然是对冲价格上涨型通货膨胀，或者对冲最坏情况发生风险的一个好工具。" 导读：6月24日，Incrementum AG资产管理公司发布了对黄金的年度分析报告《我们相信黄金，2014》In Gold we Trust 2014 report,从金价与通胀、全球零利率政策、欧洲经济危机、黄金资产组合等各个方面全面深入分析了黄金目前的阶段以及预期了其对未来金价的走势。凤凰黄金在此仅对数要点做简要描述，并附上原版PDF供有兴趣的读者参读。 货币政策的作用不像一把手术刀，而是像一把大锤。债务清偿引发的通缩和政治因素引发的价格上涨的拔河比赛，在当下也健在。去年，我们提出了"金融构造"（"monetary tectonics" ）的概念，用以描述了这些强大的势力之间的战斗。 在我们看来，通胀力量并不一定将赢得比赛。然而，社会经济激励和高负债等因素清楚地表明，如有需要，较高的通胀率将是不能不容忍的。一旦通胀趋势逆转，对通货膨胀敏感的资产，如金银以及矿产股，就将迎来绝佳机会。 在去年的价格崩溃的过程中，造成很多技术性损伤。过去数月，黄金市场投机活性显著减弱。大多数多头似乎已经认输。大部分人认为黄金牛市已终结，这是好事。黄金现在是一个逆向投资。 黄金需求从西向东流仍在继续。随着中国、印度人民富裕起来，对黄金需求也会继续增长。 目前，黄金股明显表现出高度不对称的风险回报。 在纠偏之后，矿业公司已经重新设定其优先事项——盈利能力、资本支出纪律和股东价值已经取代了生产最大化。此外，没有任何其他机构让投资者对该部门报以同样明显的怀疑眼光。
从技术角度来看，我们认为，黄金价格漫长盘整期已接近结束。 显著积极的CoT（期货头寸报告）数据和黄金矿业股的近期复苏都偏看多后市。因此，我们相信，技术面已经修复，一个稳定的底部已经形成。 我们认为12月份的目标价格为1,500美元水平。 长期来看，仍然有机会期待金价加速上涨。如果这样的情况到来，我们认为长期目标价在2,300美元，也将是本轮周期期末价位。
通膨和通紧之间的相互作用的一个很好的指标是黄金/白银价格比。人们也可以参考金银价格比作为"通缩/通膨"的比例。 以下插图的通胀矩阵解释了当下经济状况，说明了可能的发展路径。基于不同的增长速度和通胀水平，它展示了未来可能的情况。
图释：图中纵坐标表示经济增速，横坐标表示通胀。目前的经济从左下角的衰退中修复到中间的位水平，而自然状态（经济健康常态）应该在左上角。而接下来经济有三种可能的发展路径：人为刺激会将经济带到右上角；经济也可能滑落回衰退，也有可能进入高通胀低增长的滞涨状态 |
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