23 July 2014 - Safe-haven bids provide support for gold

23 July 2014 - Safe-haven bids provide support for gold
23 July 2014 - Gold, Silver Rise On Yet Another Source Of Safe Haven Demand
23 July 2014 - 世元金行：地缘局势远未平息黄金原油料将续涨

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 06:04 PM PDT

From:http://www.bdlive.co.za/markets/2014/07/23/safe-haven-bids-provide-support-for-gold?

BY A ANANTHALAKSHMI, JULY 23 2014

SINGAPORE — Gold held steady on Wednesday in Asia after dipping overnight, and looked likely to hold above $1,300/oz in the near term as geopolitical tension from crises in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip brought safe-haven bids.

But sluggish physical demand in Asia in the seasonally quiet summer period could weaken support for any price rally and even fail to provide a floor if prices were to decline.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,307.69/oz by 2.38am GMT, after losing 0.4% in the previous session, pressured by firmer equities. US gold edged up slightly to $1,308.40.

"We continue to expect gold to come under pressure this year, while keeping in mind the near-term potential for further safe-haven demand," ANZ analyst Victor Thianpiriya said in a note.

"Physical demand for gold continues to remain lacklustre. A significant fall in prices is required to spark renewed interest."

A Reuters poll on Tuesday showed that analysts and traders expected gold prices to average $1,277 for the full year, as US monetary policy returns to normal and Asian demand is weak.

Demand in Asia, home to major buyers China and India, has fallen off sharply after strong purchases last year, when gold prices slumped 28%. Other than seasonality and above-normal purchases in 2013, the possibility of a further drop in prices was also keeping buyers away, dealers said.

Bullion, though, is currently getting good support from geopolitical tension around the world. The metal is seen as an alternative investment to riskier assets such as equities.

Gold trimmed last week's losses after the downing of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine, killing all 298 on board. US officials say pro-Russian separatists most likely shot down the jet by mistake, not realising it was a civilian passenger flight. Tension eased on Tuesday after a train carrying the remains of some of the victims arrived in Ukrainian government territory and separatist leaders gave Malaysian authorities the aircraft's flight recorders.

In the Middle East, the situation remained tense with Israel pounding targets across the Gaza Strip, saying no ceasefire was near as top US and United Nations diplomats pursued talks on halting the fighting that has claimed more than 600 lives.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 1.5 tonnes to 804.84 tonnes on Tuesday on safe-haven demand.

Source:http://www.bdlive.co.za/markets/2014/07/23/safe-haven-bids-provide-support-for-gold?

23 July 2014 - Gold, Silver Rise On Yet Another Source Of Safe Haven Demand

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 05:56 PM PDT

From:http://seekingalpha.com/article/2312185-gold-silver-rise-on-yet-another-source-of-safe-haven-demand

Tim Iacono Jul. 13, 2014

Summary

Yet one more source of safe haven demand for gold has emerged with the banking troubles in Portugal.

This helped to send precious metals prices to their highest levels since March.

Physical demand in Asia remains weak, but renewed interest in mining stocks has helped boost gold and silver prices.

Gold and silver prices dipped early last week after broad stock market indexes had reached record highs, but then the metals advanced sharply and ended higher as equity markets faltered amid new credit market fears, this time concerning the health of Portugal's biggest bank. This marked the sixth straight week of gains for precious metals that are now at 3.5 month highs despite recent sharp declines for most other commodity prices.

Though safe haven demand from a number of different sources (a list that seems to grow every week) has been the key driver behind rising gold and silver futures market buying, the big gains turned in by mining stocks so far this year are also being credited for some of the metals' strength. The silver rally has been particularly impressive as the "poor man's gold" has risen 15 percent in just the last six weeks.

India and China remain non-factors for metals markets this summer and this is likely to continue over the near-term as the new Indian government chose not to reduce gold import duties and inquiries into commodity financing deals cast doubt over China's gold demand. But quickly approaching seasonally strong periods of the year for both of the world's top two gold buyers should prompt physical buying in Asia.

For the week, the gold price rose 1.4 percent, from $1,320.50 an ounce to $1,338.80, and silver gained 1.4 percent, from $21.15 an ounce to $21.44. Gold is now up 11.1 percent so far this year, still 30 percent below its record high of over $1,920 an ounce nearly three years ago and silver improved to a gain of 10.3 percent in 2014, now 57 percent below its all-time high near $50 an ounce reached in early 2011.

After surging in February and then faltering in the spring, precious metals are now again in strong short-term uptrends, seemingly determined to test resistance levels that were established months ago. For gold, this would be somewhere above $1,350 an ounce and, for silver, just under $22 an ounce. In thin futures market trading over the summer, anything is possible, however there are a number of different forces pulling metals markets in opposite directions at the moment, making the outcome anything but certain.

To be sure, there are no shortages of drivers for safe haven demand these days as concerns over financial stability in Europe displaced renewed fighting in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from atop the financial news. Previously, developments in the Gaza strip had made investors stop worrying about growing instability in Iraq due to the march of ISIS toward Baghdad and, here in July, almost no one is talking about Ukraine anymore.

Summary

Yet one more source of safe haven demand for gold has emerged with the banking troubles in Portugal.

This helped to send precious metals prices to their highest levels since March.

Physical demand in Asia remains weak, but renewed interest in mining stocks has helped boost gold and silver prices.

Remarkably, all of this has come at a time when stock market indexes around the world are making new record highs but, when these markets falter, renewed buying of precious metals is seen.

Last week was a good example of this as investors sold stocks at mid-week and the gold price surged.

Safe haven buying was likely behind the rise in the holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) as this fund added to its holdings for the third straight week with an increase of 3.7 tonnes.

This wiped out the net year-to-date decline that had persisted through mid-year as shown below and, once again, served as a reminder to traders that, unlike last year, there is no ready source of physical gold to satisfy demand in Asia.

The silver surge since the beginning of June has been even more impressive than gold and, though the holdings of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) were little changed at 10,038 tonnes last week, interest in the metal is clearly rising.

As noted here recently, the premiums investors have been willing to pay for the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) are as good an indicator as any for silver market sentiment and, per the Sprott Asset Management website, they reached a two-year high of 5.8 percent on Friday.

Interestingly, surging gold and silver prices come at a time when other commodities are tumbling. While some analysts might see this as a positive sign in that precious metals are "de-coupling" from falling energy and crop prices (that now sport losses for the year), others see this as weakness that will soon spread. It is certainly true that different commodity sectors can move in opposite directions over long stretches of time, but it is also true that, over the years, precious metals have seen their biggest gains when overall commodity markets are also rising.

The surge in gold and silver mining stocks over the last six weeks is credited with bolstering demand for the metals and a key question now is whether gold stocks will continue to rise if the broad equity market falters. Last Thursday was instructive in that the miners followed the metal higher as major U.S. stock indexes plunged on word that the euro zone banking troubles may have returned.

Recall that mining stocks sometimes follow broad equity markets and, at other times, they follow precious metals. Last year they seemed to follow whichever one was going down, whereas, this year they seem to follow whichever one is going up, leading to year-to-date gains of from 20 to 40 percent or more for gold stock indexes and funds in what is clearly a bullish development for precious metals markets as a whole.

Lastly, gold market demand from India and China has about reached its summer low with the fall festival season buying in India about to get underway along with renewed buying in China in advance of year-end holidays. To the surprise of the jewelry industry, the Indian government decided to leave gold import duties at their present 10 percent level and to leave other import curbs in place. While this will likely help keep their trade deficit lower, it will also probably lead to even more illegal imports in a country where gold smuggling has reached its highest level in decades.

In China, now the world's number one gold buyer, officially reported demand remains relatively weak as gold has been selling at par or at a discount to global prices while regulators investigate fraudulent commodity financing deals involving the metal. More and more gold is being imported via routes other than Hong Kong (where trade data is reported monthly) and this will make it even more difficult for analysts to determine how much gold is being consumed in the Middle Kingdom after a year of record demand in 2013.

Overall, it's been a pretty exciting summer so far for precious metals investors, thanks in large part to Ukraine, Iraq, Israel, and now Portugal.

Source:http://seekingalpha.com/article/2312185-gold-silver-rise-on-yet-another-source-of-safe-haven-demand

23 July 2014 - 世元金行：地缘局势远未平息黄金原油料将续涨

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 05:54 PM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-07-23/166892423.html

2014-07-23 09:38:57 来源：和讯网

和讯特约

上周贵金属市场行情整体下行，马航事件搅动金融市场，再度成为全球关注的焦点。事件发生后，避险品种盘中再度暴涨，金价大涨1.3%，油价大涨2%。后市仍需重点关注马航事件和乌俄地缘政治局势。整体而言，黄金后市仍存上涨动能。

美经济复苏有待证实

美国联邦储备委员会主席耶伦16日在国会众议院再次发布半年度证词，表示美国的政策制定仍然是以美国整体的就业情况和经济复苏进程为参考依据，在目前逐渐向好的经济数据面前，不排除继续坚持实行适度的量化宽松，耶伦打太极的角色市场已经习以为常，任何的说辞都是为了平息市场的波动。但笔者认为，耶伦一向保守的言论深层次预示着美国经济并不如表象中的健康，一旦美联储开始实行加息，市场资金受趋紧的负面效应，料将面临新一轮的难题。受此影响，投资者对市场再度引发担忧，避险情绪再次涌入金市和大宗商品市场，金价与油价借力于市场风险偏好再度发威。

地缘政治局势动荡支撑黄金原油

原油作为一种战略资源商品，更多的体现的是大国之间的政治博弈，此次剑拔弩张的马航事件，已经不是简单的坠机事件，其牵涉的是俄罗斯与乌克兰的局势进一步升级，是恐怖势力的蓄意为之，在这些问题未解决之前，加之之前出现的伊朗地缘政治危机，都将对油价起到提振作用。而俄罗斯的石油出口一直是支撑俄罗斯经济的重要武器，此次的马航事件导致美国和欧盟国家加紧对俄罗斯的制裁，这将对俄造成沉重的打击。更深层次考虑，俄罗斯为了争夺石油定价权和话语权就一直与西方国家矛盾不断，此次的马航事件，料将成为改变全球石油格局的导火索，地缘政治的风险将持续引发市场的恐慌，笔者预计短期地缘政治的因素将成为再度支撑金价、油价上涨的主角色。

全球石油需求不断增加

鉴于全球经济逐渐复苏，国际能源署（IEA）预期2014年全球石油需求平均为9276万桶/天，比2013年5月的预期高96万桶。同时，明年需求将增长142万桶/天，高于2014年的132万桶。从需求来看，全球石油需求的绝对增长依然十分强劲，特别是来自新兴国家的石油需求。而与石油有着80%高度正相关的黄金也将受惠于原油需求的增加，出现强势上涨势头。

综上，未来若基本面不出现重大利空变化，黄金原油将持续振荡上行。短线建议投资者关注黄金在1300附近的支撑情况；原油连续反弹，密切关注107.00美元/桶的关键阻力。

作者观点不代表和讯网立场

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-07-23/166892423.html