Sell gold | <b>Gold</b> Vulnerable To Manipulative <b>Sell</b> Off In June – Bargain Hunters <b>...</b> |
| <b>Gold</b> Vulnerable To Manipulative <b>Sell</b> Off In June – Bargain Hunters <b>...</b> Posted: 30 May 2014 05:09 AM PDT June is seasonally a poor month for gold and technical damage means gold could be manipulated lower again before half year end … As one astute commentator said on Twitter this week, being able to acquire cheaper gold given the state of the world today is "like being given discounts on life-rafts on the Titanic … " Today's AM fix was USD 1,254.00, EUR 921.04 and GBP 749.33 per ounce. Gold fell $2.85 or 0.2% yesterday to $1,255.29/oz. Silver slipped 0.03 cents or 0.2% to $18.99/oz. Gold suffered its fourth straight losing session yesterday leading to a 4% fall for the week.
Gold bullion in Singapore traded sideways around the $1,258/oz level prior to a bout of concentrated selling at the open in London (0800 BST) saw gold quickly fall from $1,257/oz to $1,253/oz. The move lower this week would appear to be technically driven as there was no negative headline data, obvious reasons for price falls or indeed evidence of physical gold selling. Indeed, the mood music for gold is quite positive – especially the worsening situation in Ukraine and attendant geopolitical risk. One plausible factor for gold's weakness is the ever increasing, "irrationally exuberant" appetite for risk globally which may be impacting gold. Yesterday, the poor U.S. GDP number, which was much worse than analysts had forecast, did not lead to the bounce in gold that one would have expected. Nor did it lead to weakness in permanently levitating stock markets which continued on their merry way higher. The simplistic view that the U.S. economy's poor performance in the first quarter is purely weather related remains prevalent. This is despite increasing evidence that the U.S. consumer is struggling and close to being tapped out. The latter scenario is likely the case which will prove bullish for gold in the long term. Gold premiums in India almost halved this week on the belief the new government will ease restrictions on imports of the precious metal thereby increasing demand. Indian premiums fell to $30-$40 an ounce over the global benchmark, from $80-$90 last week, dealers told Reuters. In China, gold premiums ticked slightly higher this week but remain at around $3 per ounce. Chinese premiums have remained depressed this week, which suggests demand in China has not yet picked up on this week's price weakness. Special Notice Regarding Reduction In Premiums: Gold Bars Reduced To 1.6% Premium – Click Here Technically, gold is vulnerable to a further fall to test what appears to be a double bottom between $1,180/oz and $1,200/oz. This is particularly the case in the very short term, in other words, today and early next week. It is worth considering seasonal trends and June is traditionally one of the weakest months for gold (see heatmap). Gold's 5 year and 10 year average performance in June is negative.
It is also worth considering last year's performance. Gold saw massive concentrated selling in April and further weakness in May – from $1,476/oz to $1,386/oz. Then June saw gold fall again, from $1,386/oz to the $1,200/oz level at the end of June which marked the end of the 2nd quarter, 2013. This is a time when traders, investors and the media take stock and evaluate the relative performance of various assets. If one were attempting to paint the tape through price manipulation, one would aim to have gold lower at mid year and year end. This is exactly what happened. This had the effect of greatly reducing "animal spirits" in the gold market and snuffing out the potential for rallies given the very significant global demand that was occurring, especially in China. Gold then bounced sharply in July and August prior to giving up some of those gains in September, trading sideways in October and then trading lower in November and December prior to the what appears to be the second bottom – exactly at year end 2013 (see chart below).
Momentum is a powerful force and the short term trend is down and therefore further weakness in the coming days and in June is quite possible. However, gold's 14-day relative-strength index fell to 31.2 yesterday. The RSI is an important tool in a traders arsenal. These are the lowest levels since December and being near the 30 level indicates we are due a bounce soon. Gold frequently sees weakness and bottoms soon after options expiration which took place Tuesday. Also, $1,200 should remain support as the $1,200 level is the average cost to produce an ounce of gold globally. The fundamentals are continuing and heightened geopolitical risk and robust global demand as seen in the recent World Gold Council data. Chinese demand has fallen somewhat in recent weeks but there is now the possibility of the return of Indian gold demand with the newly elected Modi government in India. While gold is vulnerable technically to further weakness, its fundamentals remain sound. Some of the important gold related stories and developments this week which could yet propel gold higher include Putin's declaration that Russia and China need to secure their gold and foreign exchange reserves and China's plans to launch a physical 'Global Gold Exchange'. Overnight, ANZ Bank confirmed the story that it is seeking participation in the new international gold exchange in Shanghai. ANZ China CEO was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying "we are very keen to play a role in such a setup." Currency wars are heating up again and some of the key developments in recent days and weeks are gold bullish. In recent weeks, Russia dumped a record amount of US treasuries and Russia's central bank buys 28 metric tonnes of gold worth $1.4 billion in April alone. Last week Russia and China announced a landmark economic agreement which includes a natural gas deal worth $400 billion and increasing use of their own currencies in bilateral trade. This week Putin said Russia and China need to secure their gold and currency reserves and Russia set up the Eurasian Economic Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Armenia are to join within a month and Kyrgyzstan within a year. This comes against a backdrop of China openly calling for a de-Americanization of the world in recent months and China, Russia, Iran and 21 other countries signing an agreement bolstering cooperation to promote peace, security and stability in Asia. China is buying natural resources and hard assets globally and investing in infrastructure in Africa and West Asia in order to extract these natural resources. China is importing unprecedented amounts of physical gold and senior Chinese policy makers and officials have gone on record regarding how they view gold as in important strategic and monetary asset. Thus, while gold is vulnerable to weakness in the short term, the smart money is again accumulating and will use this latest bout of selling to acquire gold at what will in time be seen as bargain prices. All fiat currencies including the dollar, euro and pound are vulnerable to devaluations. As one astute commentator said on Twitter this week, being able to acquire cheaper gold given the state of the world today is "like being given discounts on life-rafts on the Titanic …" Special Notice Regarding Reduction In Premiums: Gold Bars Reduced To 1.6% Premium – Click Here  |
| Will the Swiss <b>Gold</b> Initiative Start a Revolution In Europe? | FS Staff <b>...</b> Posted: 10 Jun 2014 12:00 AM PDT Luzi Stamm, a member of Swiss Parliament, and a growing number of Swiss citizens are attempting to force the Swiss central bank to halt all sales of current gold reserves, repatriate all gold back home, and to back any further money printing with 20% of gold purchases. In a recent interview with Financial Sense Newshour (FSN), Luzi believes that if Switzerland passes this initiative and takes the lead in backing their currency this will lead to a chain reaction in the central banks of other European nations, like Germany and Austria, to do the same. Here's part of the interview from this weekend's show (click here for full audio): FSN: Luzi, tell us a little bit about the Swiss Gold Initiative. I know that in the beginning of the last decade Switzerland sold off a considerable amount of its gold, which was rather surprising, because I can remember the last gold bull market in the 70s when we were looking at hard currencies, Switzerland was certainly considered one of them. That's no longer the case today. Stamm: Everything you've said is totally correct. And Switzerland, from the political system, has the advantage that the population can start a movement. We call it direct democracy. We call it the Swiss initiative. And a small group of politicians and a group of the population launched this initiative to say, "Stop selling gold and keep it in Switzerland," and we try to force our central bank to keep a certain percentage of the assets in gold. FSN: Let me ask you this: Switzerland for a long time was known for its banking system, its solid currency, its gold—what prompted Switzerland to sell a considerable amount of its gold almost at the bottom of the market? Stamm: The question of why did Switzerland start selling the gold is a long story. I see that in the 90s, Switzerland suddenly was under pressure: you made some historical mistakes under the Second World War. And there was international pressure on us to sell gold suddenly. And the Swiss central bank had always promised we will not sell gold and suddenly within two or three years this whole attitude changed and, to my surprise, the Swiss National Bank started to sell the gold. FSN: And this was something that was done without the permission of the people. In other words, they had the ability to do this? Stamm: That is totally correct. It was not even a political decision in the sense the parliament had a discussion and decided to sell. And certainly the population never said it's okay if you sell gold. So a very small group of people, it was just as we call it national bank, the Swiss central bank, who suddenly decided, okay we are going to sell. FSN: And, as you know, as Switzerland was selling gold so was the Bank of England. So there was a lot of pressure brought on the gold market had you just waited a couple of years, there would have been substantial gains instead of losses. I want to talk about this initiative and there's three parts of it and, correct me if I'm wrong, the first is that further sales of gold reserves are prohibited—that's number one. Number two, the gold must be stored in Switzerland because part of it is in England and Canada right now. Three, the national bank must store a part of its reserves in gold. In other words, 20% of your currency must be backed with gold reserves. Let me start with number three: if 20% of your currency is backed with gold reserves, would that entail the central bank going into the market and buying more gold? Stamm: Yes, that would be the result...as the situation is presented today. The third point, which is stressed now is the most complicated one and it is the attempt to force the central bank, if you are printing money like crazy like as, by the way, the Americans do, as the central bank of Europe does, if you print money like crazy, then you are at the same time forced to buy a certain percentage of gold. FSN: So, this would really negate some of the purposes of quantitative easing. If you are trying to debase your currency by printing extra money as our Fed is doing and as the ECB is doing and you have to buy gold to back it up, aren't you really defeating the purpose? Stamm: No, I don't think so at all. I think forcing the central bank to back up the paper money to a certain percentage with gold, this would be very important and perhaps Switzerland in a certain way could serve as an example to others. Because...if we would do so...we would have a reaction from Germany, from Austria, because their...populations would start to complain also: "Why do our countries not do the same?" To hear this full Financial Sense Newshour broadcast, subscribe to our iTunes podcast, or leave a comment, please use the following links below: Audio Link | Other Expert Interviews | iTunes Podcast | Comments or Inquiries |
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