30 June 2014 - Silver the star performer in recent precious metals rally |
- 30 June 2014 - Silver the star performer in recent precious metals rally
- 30 June 2014 - 地缘政治角力 国际金价冲刺季度连涨
- 30 June 2014 - World’s Longest Bull Market Masks Malaysia Risks
- 30 June 2014 - Argentina at Brink of Default as $539 Million Payment Due
| 30 June 2014 - Silver the star performer in recent precious metals rally Posted: 30 Jun 2014 03:38 AM PDT From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=245883&sn=Detail Author: Lawrence Williams Posted: Friday , 27 Jun 2014 LONDON (MINEWEB) - Silver's performance in the recent precious metals rally has been quite spectacular rising around 13% in a matter of days, before drifting back a little along with gold as the initial momentum has left the market. Undoubtedly some of the cream will have been due to short covering, but the movement does suggest that should there be a significant upwards move in the gold price, as some technical analysts suggest, then the potential for a much more dramatic rise in silver is very much with us. Conversely, of course, should the gold price fall back drastically between now and the end of the year, silver investors could face some very sharp losses such is the metal's volatility in comparison with its yellow sibling. Indeed over the past year silver has seen some dramatic price movements – mostly adverse if one is a silver investor. As recently as last August silver was riding high just above $24, before falling back to around $18.70 at the beginning of this month. However this has changed recently and a measure of the extent by which silver has outperformed gold over the past two months is that the Gold:Silver ratio (GSR) has come down from a high point of close to 67 to under 63 ( 62.4 at the time of writing). The out and out silver bulls are looking for the GSR to fall to around 16:1 – the so-called historic level – but this kind of ratio has only been seen in recent years when the Hunt Brothers almost succeeded in cornering the silver market in 1980 and our view is that this kind of level is unlikely to be seen again unless some kind of similar pricing anomaly is repeated. And if anything, any silver-price market manipulation by the big money and high frequency traders has caused the GSR to move in the opposite direction over the past two to three years. If this type of manipulation is indeed the case we could yet see a reversal in the ratio should there be seen to be major profits in it but anything below perhaps around a GSR of 35 as seen when silver peaked at close to $50 an ounce in April 2011 seems to this observer to be highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The most likely positive this observer feels that the silver investor might hope for in the near future is a ratio of between 50 to 60 – which at the current gold price would suggest a silver price of between $26 and perhaps $22. It might not take much of a move to see the latter level, but barring a huge gold price escalation (which would likely see a GSR of well below 50 given silver's increased volatility) we don't see a silver price rise back to near $50 in the near future – but beyond that who knows? If anything the silver price is hugely difficult to forecast – more so perhaps than any other precious metal given its quasi-monetary attributes along with substantial industrial usage and ever continuing investment demand. On the supply side, most is mined as a by-product of lead/zinc or gold mines and while primary silver mines have seen something of an upturn in recent years it still makes silver output highly dependent on the production of other metals and thus on extraneous supply/demand economics. On the demand side there is still a major element of investment hoarding – particularly in terms of silver coins in the West and silver investment jewellery in Asia, but a dichotomy here is that the major silver analysts seem to treat investment silver as potential above-ground supply and thereby reckon that silver is in a major surplus position. These same analysts don't seem to treat gold in a similar manner. On the industrial front, photographic silver demand, which used to be its major usage, has been declining for years with the onset of digital photographic technology. But to set against this a good proportion of photographic silver was recycled, while many current, and growing, usages – particularly in the medical and biocide field – are often unrecoverable - or at least not economically so at present. There is considerable offtake in the electronics sector too, and again recycling is not strong. As to the decline in photographic silver this is subject to the law of diminishing returns and any continuing fall-off here is becoming relatively insignificant. So the future path of the silver price is tough to call. This observer sees it as virtually wholly dependent on gold price movement despite its industrial usage attributes which should see it benefiting from any economic upturn. However, for the gamblers among us it remains the most interesting of the precious metals. Should gold move sharply upwards, silver would likely soar, creating some big gains,although on the downside gold's possible percentage decline looks pretty limited, but silver's much less so due to its hugely higher volatility. Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=245883&sn=Detail |
| 30 June 2014 - 地缘政治角力 国际金价冲刺季度连涨 Posted: 30 Jun 2014 03:37 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-30/166149732.html 2014-06-30 00:38:00 来源：上海证券报 作者：王宙洁 ⊙记者 王宙洁 ○编辑 秦风 对于国际市场隐隐溢出的危机感，金价和美元通常都是嗅觉最灵敏的两大品种。 受伊拉克地缘政治风险依然高企及参差不齐的美国经济数据影响，纽约黄金期货在过去这个季度继续攀升，有望自三年来首次实现连涨两个季度的表现。相反，美元上周却跌至七周最低。 上周公布的美国经济数据显示，一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）终值按年率计算萎缩2.9%，是2009年一季度以来最差的季度表现。占美国经济总量七成的个人消费开支5月份环比增幅不及市场预期。但美国5月份旧房销量环比上涨4.9%，涨幅创2011年8月份以来最大。27日公布的美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数则为82.5，高于5月份的81.2。 喜忧参半的经济数据让美联储首次加息时间变得扑朔迷离。与此同时，伊拉克的地缘政治危机未现好转。而美联储在6月中旬的会议结束后表示，在可预见的将来都会把利率维持在最低点附近。 另一边，宽松的政策环境却让美元受困。上周，美元对一篮子主要对手货币跌至七周最低水平，追踪美元兑十大主要对手货币表现的彭博美元即期汇率指数在27日纽约交易时段尾盘下跌0.3%至1004.94点，为5月9日以来最低水平。美元对日元下跌0.3%至101.43日元。美元对欧元贬值0.3%至1.3648美元。 不过，这种环境对黄金而言实为利好。在27日的交易中，纽约商品交易所Comex分部交投最活跃的八月黄金期货结算价报每盎司1320美元，涨幅0.2%。全周上涨0.26%，这是纽约金价连续第四周取得涨幅。金价从月初低位到现在已累计上涨了6%，有望创出2011年以来的首次两个季度连涨。 当日美国股市则受到罗素投资对其基准指数进行年度调整影响，在最后一小时止跌回升，帮助标普500指数缩减上周的跌幅。 截至27日收盘，美股三大股指涨幅在0.03%至0.43%不等。从周线看，三大股指表现不一，其中道指和标普500指数上周分别下跌0.6%及0.1%。纳斯达克指数则上扬0.7%。标普500指数本季度以来已经累计上涨4.7%，有望取得连续六个季度上扬的成绩，或创造1998 年以来最长连涨纪录。 与此同时，市场密切关注伊拉克局势。伊拉克是石油输出国组织的第二大出口国。27日收盘时，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶105.74美元，跌幅0.1%。8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶113.3美元，涨幅0.1%。两者上周分别下跌1%及1.3%。 新的一周，美国即将公布的多项经济数据将成为重头戏，其中包括6月非农就业数据、供应管理协会（ISM）6月服务业数据以及5月贸易逆差等。 |
| 30 June 2014 - World’s Longest Bull Market Masks Malaysia Risks Posted: 30 Jun 2014 03:22 AM PDT By Choong En Han and Weiyi Lim Jun 30, 2014 5:32 PM GMT+0800 The world's longest-running equity rally is losing steam. Malaysia's benchmark stock index, one of the first to begin rebounding from the global financial crisis, capped its smallest first-half return since 2008. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (FBMKLCI) has gained just 0.8 percent this year, after rising 127 percent from its October 2008 low in the longest bull market among nations in the MSCI All-Country World Index. Record household debt, equity valuations that exceed the average level of the past five market peaks and slower earnings growth at companies from Petronas Dagangan Bhd. (PETD) to Maxis Bhd. (MAXIS) are taking the sheen off Southeast Asia's second-biggest stock market. While share purchases by the nation's 587 billion-ringgit ($182 billion) pension fund support prices, money managers at Samsung Asset Management Co. and BlackRock Inc. favor stocks in Thailand and China. "Valuations are too rich" in Malaysia, Alan Richardson, whose Samsung Asean Equity Fund outperformed 96 percent of peers tracked by Bloomberg during the past five years, said by phone from Hong Kong. "Growth prospects are constrained by high household debt levels." Malaysia's bull market, defined as a gain of at least 20 percent without a subsequent drop of the same magnitude from a recent high, has lasted 2,067 calendar days, almost five times as long as the average advance since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1977. That compares with 1,936 days for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX), which has climbed about 190 percent from its March 2009 nadir. Bull Market The KLCI's advance from its 2008 low is 37 percentage points bigger than the average 19 previous bull markets. The gauge's price-to-book ratio of 2.3 compares with a mean level of 2 at the last five rally peaks and a multiple of 1.5 for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. "If you haven't taken a position in Malaysia, you are a little bit late for the party," Sam Le Cornu, who helps oversee about $1 billion at Macquarie Investment Management and has an underweight position in the country, said by phone from Hong Kong on June 24. "We are not finding a lot of value." The KLCI closed 0.1 percent higher in the final 10 minutes of trade, reversing earlier losses of as much as 0.2 percent. Rising debt levels and a planned consumption tax may put pressure on Malaysian consumers. The country's household debt rose to a record 86.8 percent of gross domestic product at the end of last year, from 57 percent in 2002, according to the central bank's 2013 annual report. Debt Burden The government introduced a goods and services tax of 6 percent, which takes effect in April 2015, to boost revenue after running a fiscal deficit since 1998. A gauge of consumer sentiment compiled by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research dropped to the lowest level since March 2009 in the quarter ended Dec. 31. Malaysia is the most vulnerable country in Asia to external and financial shocks, Oxford Economics Ltd. said in a June 2 report. At 54.6 percent, the Malaysian government's debt-to-GDP ratio is jointly ranked with Pakistan's as the second highest among 13 emerging Asian markets after Sri Lanka, data compiled by Bloomberg show. "The Malaysian market will be sluggish," said Chua Hak Bin, a Singapore-based economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. High debt levels will "weigh on the property market and consumer spending." Malaysian stocks get support from a steady stream of purchases by Employees Provident Fund, the nation's biggest state pension fund, according to Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn. Pension Buying The EPF said last month that investment income surged 58 percent to 8.83 billion ringgit in the first quarter from a year earlier, driven mainly by returns from equity investments. About 43 percent of its funds were invested in equities, it said in a statement. "There's a lot of liquidity in Malaysia, and with the age profile of the country and contribution to permanent savings schemes like the Employees Provident Fund, a chunk of these funds finds its way into the equity market," said Gerald Ambrose, a managing director of Aberdeen Asset in Kuala Lumpur. "So it's perceived as a sort of a support." The nation's economic expansion has so far been resilient to higher debt levels. GDP rose 6.2 percent in the first three months of 2014, the fastest pace in five quarters, as a revival in global growth boosted exports. The economy may expand between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2014, the central bank said in March, versus 4.7 percent last year. Earnings Outlook Malaysia's earnings growth is still projected to lag behind emerging-market peers. Profits in the KLCI index will climb 5 percent in the next 12 months, versus 18 percent for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Malaysian gauge trades at 16 times estimated earnings, versus 11 times for the developing-nation measure. "My concern is that we are being asked to buy stocks now at price-earnings multiples and price-to-book values significantly higher than the levels of, say, 18 months ago," Ambrose said. "Yet there hasn't been any increase in the earnings outlook." Malaysian stocks were downgraded to underweight from neutral on June 19 by JPMorgan Chase & Co., which reduced its 2014 and 2015 earnings growth forecast and said it's less positive on consumption-driven sectors. IHH Healthcare Bhd. (IHH), Asia's biggest hospital operator, is trading at 42 times projected 12-month earnings, close to its highest level in seven months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Thailand's Bumrungrad Hospital Pcl has a multiple of 30, while India's Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. trades at 33. Market Laggards Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd. (ASTRO), Malaysia's largest pay-TV operator and the best performer on the KLCI this year, has a multiple of 30, compared with 17 for BEC World Pcl, Thailand's biggest publicly traded broadcaster. For BlackRock's Andrew Swan, this year's advance in developing-nation stocks, which sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to a 4.8 percent gain, is another reason Malaysian shares are losing their appeal. He says investors tend to view the country as a "defensive" bet that holds up well in market downturns while lagging behind in rallies. The world's largest money manager doesn't have "a lot of exposure" in Malaysia, Swan, the Hong Kong-based head of Asian equities at BlackRock, which oversees about $4.1 trillion, said on June 24 in Hong Kong. "When Asian markets and emerging markets are rising, Malaysia tends to underperform, which is what's happening again this year." |
| 30 June 2014 - Argentina at Brink of Default as $539 Million Payment Due Posted: 30 Jun 2014 03:20 AM PDT By Camila Russo Jun 30, 2014 7:10 AM GMT+0800 Argentina is poised to miss a bond payment today, putting the country on the brink of its second default in 13 years, after a U.S. court blocked the cash from being distributed until the government settles with creditors from the previous debt debacle. The nation has a 30-day grace period after missing the $539 million debt payment to seek an accord with a group of defaulted bondholders led by billionaire Paul Singer's NML Capital Ltd. and prevent a default on its $28.7 billion of performing global dollar bonds. Both Argentina and NML have said that they're open to talks. A decade-long battle between Argentina and holdout creditors from the country's $95 billion default in 2001 is coming to a head. The U.S. Supreme Court on June 16 left intact a ruling requiring the country pay about $1.5 billion to holders of defaulted debt at the same time it makes payments on restructured bonds. Argentina last week transferred funds to its bond trustee to pay the restructured notes, only to have U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Griesa order the payment sent back while the parties negotiate. The judge's decision "closes Argentina's options to finally force it to negotiate," said Jorge Mariscal, the chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Wealth Management, which oversees $1 trillion. "Argentina should now stop using these delay tactics and get serious." Argentina took out a full-page advertisement in yesterday's New York Times saying that Griesa favored the holdout creditors and was trying to push Argentina into default. The ruling "is merely a sophisticated way of of trying to bring us down to our knees before global usurers," Argentina said. "But he will not achieve his goal for quite a simple reason: The Argentine Republic will meet its obligations, pay off its debts and honor its commitments." Wasting Time Economy Minister Axel Kicillof has said the nation was complying with its obligations to bondholders when it sent the money to bond trustee Bank of New York Mellon Corp. Argentina probably knew the payment was going to be blocked, according to Carlos Abadi, the chief executive officer of New York-based investment bank ACGM Inc. "What is not so obvious is why they would put up such a show and waste precious time," Abadi said. "It's going to be incredibly complex to reach a comprehensive deal by July 30th, and this sideshow makes the goal even harder." After the Supreme Court's decision, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's government had initially said that the country would skirt the ruling by swapping its bonds, which were issued under New York law, into new securities outside of U.S. jurisdiction. Officials later said they'd seek a negotiated settlement with the holdouts. Not Welcome In an e-mailed statement, the Economy Ministry said Griesa is abusing his power and acting outside of his jurisdiction as the restructured bonds are not part of the holdouts' case. "A judge is trying to impede a debtor from carrying out its obligations and creditors from getting paid," the ministry said. The price on Argentine's 2033 bonds fell 1.55 cent to 83.69 cents on the dollar June 27, when the judge blocked the bond payment, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. Argentina's next international bond payment is scheduled for Sept. 30, for securities due in 2038. Carmine Boccuzzi, a lawyer for Argentina, told Griesa at the June 27 hearing that the country still hopes for a negotiated settlement. Jay Newman, a money manager at Elliott's NML Capital, said in an interview, "We are hoping to have the opportunity to negotiate with Argentina." |
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