12 June 2014 - P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Slightly Up on Short Covering and Mild Safe-Haven Buying |
- 12 June 2014 - P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Slightly Up on Short Covering and Mild Safe-Haven Buying
- 12 June 2014 - 世界黄金协会：实物需求支撑金价 黄金5年内或再创新高
- 11 June 2014 - 欧银宽松提供绝秒拐点 黄金重返1640美元不是梦
- 11 June 2014 - Gold At A Turning Point After ECB's Unprecedented Action - CMC Markets
- 10 June 2014 - 金价连跌啥时才涨？分析称当前是入市好机会
- 9 June 2014 - China Looking To Dominate Gold Market With International Shanghai Gold Exchange
- 9 June 2014 - 经济学家：供需面将支撑金价 下半年表现将逆转
- 6 June 2014 - 美元或引爆世界经济大战 购买黄金白银有备无患
- 5 June 2014 - 数据：实物买家不惧金价暴跌 5月末积极加仓
- 5 June 2014 - Indexology®: The Gold War of India’s Policy vs. U.S. Economy
| 12 June 2014 - P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Slightly Up on Short Covering and Mild Safe-Haven Buying Posted: 12 Jun 2014 03:12 AM PDT Wednesday June 11, 2014 2:16 PM (Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session slightly higher Wednesday and hit a two-week high. More short covering and bargain hunting were featured, along with a bit of safe-haven demand. The gold bulls are also gaining some near-term technical momentum. August Comex gold was last up $1.00 at $1,261.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $1.00 at $1,261.40. July Comex silver last traded up $0.027 at $19.195 an ounce. A sell off in the U.S. stock market Wednesday was somewhat beneficial for the gold and silver markets. Escalating violence and instability in Iraq were also mentioned in the market place. Both of these elements provided some mild safe-haven demand for gold. But of the sell off in this very mature bull market run in stocks continues, and if the situation in Iraq deteriorates further, gold will see better safe-haven buying interest. In overnight news, the World Bank cut its annual world economic growth forecast to 2.8% from its last forecast of up 3.2%, in January. This news was also bullish for the gold market as it hints the world's major central banks can keep their easy-money policies in place at least a while longer. A feature in the market place recently has been the sinking value of the Euro currency and the rising value of the U.S. dollar. Last week's new monetary stimulus measures from the European Central Bank were a bearish underlying development for the Euro currency, as it hovers near a four-month low. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is trading near a four-month high. This currency price action has historically been bearish for the raw commodity sector, including gold. However, the gold market has just recently rebounded from lower price levels and Nymex crude oil futures prices are at contract highs around $105.00 a barrel. The London P.M. gold fix was $1,262.00 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,259.50. Technically, August gold futures prices closed near mid-range and hit another two-week high Wednesday. Gold market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are making a modest move. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,268.50. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,240.20. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $1,265.50 and then at $1,268.50. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of $1,257.90 and then at $1,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0 July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and did hit another two-week high early on. Tepid short covering was featured. The silver bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, the silver bulls are also making a modest move. Prices are still in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $18.615. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $19.33 and then at $19.50. Next support is seen at this week's low of $18.97 and then at $18.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5. July N.Y. copper closed down 125 points at 304.05 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 312.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 305.00 cents and then at Wednesday's high of 307.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 301.85 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. |
| 12 June 2014 - 世界黄金协会：实物需求支撑金价 黄金5年内或再创新高 Posted: 12 Jun 2014 03:08 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-12/165623520.html 2014-06-12 08:35:00 来源：华尔街见闻 世界黄金协会认为，未来金价将更依赖实物消费而不是投资，金价有望在未来五年内创新高。 世界黄金协会投资策略总经理Marcus Grubb，中国仍然是全球最大黄金消费国，同时一旦进口关税下调，印度的黄金需求就将出现反弹，这可能会发生在9月或10月。 今年一季度全球金饰需求达到571吨，为2005年以来同期最高。投资需求稳定，金条和金币需求降低，但由ETF黄金外流几乎已停止。 世界黄金协会指出，全球央行仍然是黄金的净买家，不过未来数年买需步伐可能会放缓。 世界黄金协会投资策略总经理Marcus Grubb指出，2013年全球央行黄金的买需为409吨，预计今年央行将购买将降低至300吨黄金。 世界黄金协会此前公布数据显示，一季度珠宝类黄金需求增长了3%。受益于金价下跌和春节，今年中国一季度珠宝首饰黄金购买量创下历史最高纪录。 一季度黄金ETF净流出量为零，而去年同期净流出177吨。而金币金条投资出乎意料的下跌了39%。 |
| 11 June 2014 - 欧银宽松提供绝秒拐点 黄金重返1640美元不是梦 Posted: 11 Jun 2014 03:21 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-11/165579582.html 2014-06-11 07:02:34 来源：FX168 CMC Markets高级市场分析师Colin Cieszynski周二(6月10日)研究报告中称，上周欧洲央行(ECB)颁布了"史无前例"的超级宽松货币政策，包括降息、新一轮LTRO以及可能的欧版QE，而这或许意味着黄金市场正面临一个绝佳的拐点，长期有望重返1555-1640美元/盎司。 上周四(6月5日)欧洲央行(ECB)宣布下调指标再融资利率10个基点至0.15%，预期为0.10%，这也是自2013年11月以来，央行再度降息。同时，央行还宣布下调存款利率至-0.1%，行长德拉基随后也表示欧洲央行将会执行一系列的长期操作，包括新一轮4000亿欧元的LTRO(长期再融资操作)，以及实施ABS(资产支持证券)购买。 Cieszynski指出，"2013年国际金价大跌的不光是因为美联储(FED)在6月暗示将逐步缩减QE，欧洲方面的动作也不可小觑。过去18个月来欧洲的银行一直在向欧洲央行偿还首次LTRO(长期再融资操作)的贷款，帮助欧银的资产负债表削减了约1万亿欧元，而这事实上就是在"隐秘地"收紧流动性。" 另一方面，根据最新的研究成果，Cieszynski意识到过去几个月影响金价的主要因素正逐渐从美元转向欧元。他强调当初美联储在实施第三套量化宽松政策(QE3)后，不少人都预期金价将升穿2000美元/盎司，但事实证明后来并未没有，反而在2013年录得28%的大跌。 下图显示，尽管和历史数据对比并不明显，但过去几个月黄金价格与欧洲央行资产负债表的关联性远高于美联储。可以看到每次欧洲央行资产负债表收缩，金价也相应地会出现下跌。 至于为何欧洲与金价的联系越来越紧密，Cieszynski表示背后的主要原因是欧洲各个地区的互联性。他强调，"在欧元区成立之前，希腊的问题可能只归希腊自己考虑，但随着欧元区的建立以及欧元的普及，希腊的问题自然也会引起法国和德国投资者的担忧情绪。除此之外，相对于北美国家，欧洲更将黄金视作一种财富的重要储存方式，因此一旦欧洲再次爆发危机，欧洲人有更大概率选择黄金来保值。" 2010年欧洲正经历金融危机爆发以来最艰难的时刻，当时黄金正充当着优异的避险资产。而截至2014年为止，欧元区依然没有走出通缩的阴影，这也是为何上周欧洲央行要用如此"大手笔"的宽松货币政策来刺激通胀上涨。Cieszynski预计此次宽松将使得欧洲央行的资产负债表再次扩张5650亿欧元，差不多过去18个月削减总量(1万亿欧元)的56%。 对于黄金方面，Cieszynski指出，在上周四欧洲央行公布利率决议后，金价大涨超过20美元，这或许正暗示在经历三年的下跌趋势后，黄金市场正面临一个主要的转折点。如果未来金价延续与欧洲央行资产负债表的关联性，或许意味着有望在未来数个月收复此前56%的跌幅。而目前金价从历史高位1920.50美元/盎司下跌至1250美元/盎司的50%-62%回撤水平正位于1555-1640美元区域。 |
| 11 June 2014 - Gold At A Turning Point After ECB's Unprecedented Action - CMC Markets Posted: 11 Jun 2014 03:07 AM PDT (Kitco News) – The European Central Bank's unprecedented monetary policy announcement last week could be the turning point the gold market needs to generate long-term momentum, said a market analyst. Colin Cieszynski, market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a research report released Tuesday that in the last few months he has noticed gold's primary influence has shifted to the euro from the U.S. dollar. He said one major factor behind gold's lackluster performance is European banks' repayment of the central bank's loans from its first Long-Term Refinancing Operation during the last 18 months. This repayment process allowed the ECB to embark on "stealth tapering," as it reduced its balance sheet by about a trillion euros, he said. During the same time period, the Federal Reserve embarked on its third round of quantitative easing program. "You would have thought that with all that money the U.S. was printing that gold would have shot through $2,000, but it didn't," he said in an interview with Kitco News. He added that this scenario demonstrates that gold is reacting more to the ECB's balance sheet than to the Federal Reserve's. Cieszynski admitted the link between gold and the ECB isn't obvious, but the trend has become made clearer over the last few years. The chart from CMC Markets shows how gold has tracked the ECB's shrinking balance sheet more than the Federal Reserve's expanding balance sheet. A major factor behind Europe's growing influence over gold is the interconnectedness within the region, he said. "Before the eurozone was created if Greece had a problem it was considered only their problem. Now because of the currency and the growth of the European Union, a problem in Greece causes concerns for investors in Germany and France," he said. "Europeans also see gold as an important store of wealth, more than North Americans, so if they become nervous they are more likely to buy gold to protect themselves." Since 2010, during the height of the European financial crisis, gold acted as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical and financial instability. However, Cieszynski added the ECB's shift in monetary policy could cause the yellow metal to revert back to its traditional function as a hedge against inflation. To stimulate growth and boost inflation, the ECB opened the flood gates: cutting interest rates, announcing a new EUR400 billion LTRO program, ending its weekly sterilization program and introducing the possibility of outright asset-backed purchases, Cieszynski explained. "This means that we could see the ECB restore (EUR565) billion of the (EUR1) trillionish it took away or about a 56% restoration," he said. He added that gold's immediate rally following the ECB monetary-policy meeting "may have signaled a major turning point for the yellow metal after nearly three years of declines." "If gold continues to follow its recent trend of tracking the size of the ECB balance sheet, it could potentially stage a 56% retracement of its losses over the last few years in the coming months. A 50% to 62% retracement of the previous downtrend suggests the $1,555 to $1,640 zone could potentially be probed," he said. |
| 10 June 2014 - 金价连跌啥时才涨？分析称当前是入市好机会 Posted: 10 Jun 2014 03:46 AM PDT From:http://hi.people.com.cn/n/2014/0609/c231185-21377075.html 2014年06月09日10:09 金价连番跌啥时才会涨？ 有分析师表示，8、9月份金价可能重新走高，1200美元以下可以买入 羊城晚报记者 艾修煜 摄 从5月开始的金价连续下跌，已经搅得投资者心神不宁。据统计，5月底开始金价连续7个交易日下跌，创下自去年11月以来最长连续下跌纪录。不少之前购买黄金的大妈全面处于亏损阶段。截至记者昨日发稿时止，国际现货金价约在1254美元/盎司。不过，有分析师表示，当前是好的入市时机，金价在1200美元以下都是买入机会，年底金价有上涨可能。 市场 投资金首饰金齐动销 去年国际金价大幅下跌曾引起一阵"中国大妈抢购风"，现在的大妈们则被深度套牢。不过，记者在采访广州黄金市场时，并没有发现大妈出手卖金的情况，不少大妈甚至表示，实物金本来就是留给子女的，十年后的金价谁也说不准。 记者昨日从广州东山百货获悉，投资金价格为251元/克，足金297元/克，千足金298元/克。据东山百货经理戴崇业介绍，近几个月，东山百货投资金全规格销量抬头。端午小长假期间，投资金的销售占总体销售的六成左右，成为支撑销量的核心。小规格的福字投资金条今年尤为走俏。"很多人十几二十几条地买。"同时，也不乏豪掷数十万元购买大规格金条者。"就在前两天，我们花地湾分店有客人买了1000克的金条，500克的也有人买。" 戴崇业表示。 与投资金不同，戴崇业认为首饰金是一种"刚性需求"。国际金价的低迷着实给首饰金添了一把火。随着下半年婚嫁高峰的到来，戴崇业估计首饰金的高销量还会持续。 "去年金价曾经一度下跌到每克236元、237元，所以现在仍有相当一部分人在观望，期待金价能够进一步下跌然后买进。"戴崇业表示。 分析 金价下跌原因在哪？ 对于近期金价下跌，卓创资讯贵金属高级分析师周姣认为有以下几个方面的原因：首先，俄乌局势转危为安，无法再刺激黄金的避险需求，支撑金价的强大因素或就此陨落；其次，除去一季度因极寒天气导致的经济数据出现下滑以外，二季度以来，美国经济数据均表现抢眼，表明美国经济正稳步复苏，美元指数也趁机崛起，呈现单边上扬的态势，令金价承压。 最后，黄金消费疲软迹象显现，以全球最大的黄金消费国中国为例，一季度黄金需求下降18%，至263.2吨，其中金饰需求上升10%，但金币和金条需求大降55%，是全球黄金需求总量减少40%的主因。 金价还会继续下跌吗？ 对于金价的走势，广东南方黄金市场研究院高级分析师何伟锋表示，"今年上半年，国内实物黄金的需求有所下降，金价低位没有出现大量买盘，但在国际黄金市场上，我们发现全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR在5月底至今，开始重新购入黄金并已超过10吨，逢低买入的信号若隐若现。" "现在已经是6月份，金价跌势将至尾声。"何伟锋判断，"金价下跌至6月底若出现低位，7月和8月会有低位买盘出现，至9月、10月后的传统黄金消费旺季，在刚需的推动下，有望带出一波中线反弹的行情。加之，今年秋季美联储将完全退出QE，届时市场消化该利空后，将出现利好。因此，我个人的观点是第三季度金价就会出现反弹。" 而广东黄金协会副会长朱志刚虽然认为金价继续下跌的可能性仍然很大。"但此次金价继续下跌的空间可能没有此前的空间大，若未来跌破1200美元位置，很多买盘可能会重新买入，导致金价再度上涨。预计整个6月金价将震荡下行，反弹的可能性极小，八九月份金价可能重新走高。" 建议 当前是入市好机会 随着金价连续大跌，黄金投资者此前举棋不定的观望状态似乎迎来了转机：新一轮下跌之后，黄金市场投资机会是否已显露？ 朱志刚建议，由于金价继续下跌空间不大，当前价位是一个入市的好机会，建议投资者抓住下跌行情，根据自己的实际情况，分配自己的五分之一到四分之一的资金量去购买黄金。 何伟锋则表示，无论是已持有还是没有实物黄金的投资者，可考虑在7月或8月金价低位在1200美元下方时，逢低买入实物黄金。若低位下跌至1180美元附近，则有机会反弹至1300美元上方。 "如果投资形式不限于实物金的话，可逢低购入纸黄金，因其变现费用低。"周姣特别指出。 Source:http://hi.people.com.cn/n/2014/0609/c231185-21377075.html |
| 9 June 2014 - China Looking To Dominate Gold Market With International Shanghai Gold Exchange Posted: 09 Jun 2014 03:41 AM PDT INVESTING | 5/27/2014 @ 11:40AM (Kitco News) – Not only is China the world's top gold-producing and consumer nation but according to media reports, the country now has plans to become a major player in market pricing. According to reports, the People's Bank of China has given the Shanghai Gold Exchange permission to build an international gold-trading platform in Shanghai. The exchange has already contacted foreign banks including HSBC, ANZ, Standard Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and the Bank of Nova Scotia and invited them participate in a new international board. China's announcement to create an international price platform comes during a time of intense scrutiny of gold benchmarks. On Friday, the British regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, fined Barclays Bank Plc GBP26 million for failing to adequately manage conflicts of interest between itself and customers, as well as "systems and controls failings," connected to the London gold fixing. Jessica Fung, commodity analyst from BMO Capital Markets, said that this move by the Chinese central bank appears to be extremely opportunistic. "It is quite clear that the East is trying to dominate the market," she said. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, agreed China is trying to capitalize on the turmoil in the London gold cash market as a result of the problems with the London gold fix. Although the timing is opportunistic, Fung added that this is part of the Chinese government's commitment to open up their markets. She pointed out that the Hong Kong exchange's purchase of the London Metals Exchange last year is another example of how the country is slowly embracing international markets. In August 2013, China surprised markets by giving approval to Australian bank ANZ and HSBC to trade gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Fung recently visited China and said the perception of domestic traders is changing and they are getting more comfortable and confident about the idea of trading in international markets. She added that the country has major credit risk problems that they have to deal with and the only way to resolve them is by looking outside their borders. "One of the reasons for the property bubble in China is because nobody knows where to put their money," she said. "The government has to allow investors to move aboard and spread the risk." However, the question on a lot of analysts' minds is whether an international Shanghai exchange will be able to dominate the market? The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest gold exchange in the world; however, it currently provides a platform for domestic financial institutions, mining companies and retailers. Hansen said because of the problems in the cash market, the SGE could dominate London; however, it would take a significant change in the market for China to dominate the futures market in North America. "The investment flows are still bigger than the physical demand," he said. "The liquidity is still on North America." Fung agreed that as long as there are still controls on Chinese markets and the yuan remains tightly regulated, an international Shanghai won't be the global standard. |
| 9 June 2014 - 经济学家：供需面将支撑金价 下半年表现将逆转 Posted: 09 Jun 2014 03:28 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-09/165506109.html 2014-06-09 08:45:27 来源：FX168 在上周大跌后，金价本周大部分时间都位于1240美元/盎司上方波动，在周四欧洲央行会议后，金价重新回到了1250上方。不过黄金市场仍然是偏悲观，尤其夏季本来就是黄金表现比较平淡的时期。 不过American Precious Metals的贵金属经济学家兼总经理Jeff Nichols认为，黄金的基本面有所改善，短期内将有反弹，在今年晚些时候则会有较大的上涨。 Nichols对长期美国和全球经济持悲观态度，但他同时认为，即使全球经济真的在好转，这对金价的上涨也是没有影响的。 Nichols指出供需面的因素，尤其是中国和印度的大量黄金需求。 另外，今年前五个月SPDR黄金ETF流出量仅为9吨，和去年全年的550吨比有大幅下降。去年黄金ETF的巨大流出量被认为是金价下跌的一大原因。目前ETF 流出量将是比较有限的，而像去年4月份那样的金价暴跌也是不太可能重演的。不过ETF的流出仍然显现出市场的负面情绪。 Nichols认为，莫迪上任后印度对黄金政策的改变会带来需求增长，这可能是扭转市场情绪的潜在因素。另外乌克兰局势则是另一个支撑，虽然近期似乎已不再是关注焦点，但Nichols认为，一旦牵涉进俄罗斯的军事行动，并且俄罗斯被支撑都会带来避险需求。 中国和印度对黄金的需求量几乎将全球所有新开采的黄金都覆盖掉，因此，Nichols认为，在这样的情况下，尤其在黄金ETF的流出放缓的情况下，金价走势必然会逆转。 此外，Nichols认为就全球宏观经济面来看，西方国家的商品和服务需求仍然不足，很多关键国家推行紧缩措施，他认为这是不合适的，削减政府支出并不能推动私人支出。 Nichols认为，美联储认为经济回到了2008年之前的增长水平，因此开始缩减宽松政策，但如果真正的经济增长并没有回来，那么将快速逆转黄金市场的情绪。他对今年下半年黄金的表现有非常积极的信心。 |
| 6 June 2014 - 美元或引爆世界经济大战 购买黄金白银有备无患 Posted: 06 Jun 2014 03:34 AM PDT From:http://finance.china.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/20140606/2450967.shtml 发布时间：2014-06-06 07:22:00 来源：中国经济网 作者：佚名 责任编辑：孙朋浩 Sharpspixley专栏作家Patrick A. Heller最近撰文称，近年来，中国以及俄罗斯在国际政治经济体系中日渐崛起，美元霸主地位受到挑战。同时，鉴于各种政治经济较量，"去美元化"愈演愈烈，美元受到挑战。加之对美国经济复苏或是伪繁荣的质疑，美元稳定性受到一定程度削弱。美元或引爆第三次世界经济战争，建议多购买黄金白银等硬通货，做到"有备无患"。 今年5月，长达十年的中俄两国天然气供应谈判终于破冰，中俄两国签订了30年期4000亿美元天然气供应协议。始于2004年的中俄天然气谈判"马拉松"终于结束。除了上述重大事件以外，美国还面临来自美元及美国经济的其他挑战。美元战争或将引爆第三次世界经济大战。 5月16日，中央国家机关政府采购中心发布通知称：所有计算机类产品不允许安装Windows8操作系统。21世纪经济报道记者第一时间联系微软中国相关负责人，她在电话中称：不太清楚具体情况，目前正与法务部与市场部核实情况。中央国家机关拒绝采购Windows8，这对于美国微软公司不啻于当头一棒。 此外，美国思科公司证实近期一月，该公司没有收到来自中国的新订单。有相关外媒报道称，中国政府正在呼吁国内银行停止使用IBM公司的高端服务器，转用本国品牌。 中国最近一年以来，开始逐渐减持美元货币储备及美国国债。 据外媒5月22日报道，上周美国财政部国际资本流动报告(TIC)所进行分析显示，在"比利时"史无前例地大规模增持美国国债同时，俄罗斯正在以前所未有的速度减持美国国债，仅仅在3月就出售创记录的260亿美元，相当于总持有量的20%。同时，中俄两国与德国、沙特阿拉伯、非洲以及南美部分国家正在逐渐加强联系与合作。 但是，大国之间的经济博弈，美国人民并不十分知悉。他们听到更多的是关于美国自由民主以及美联储关于经济复苏的大量吹嘘。 上述经济战争导火索并不是事发偶然。中国和俄罗斯在世界政治经济体系中低位逐步增强，而美国国际影响力逐渐下降。世界各大主要经济体正在等待时机。去年美国国家安全局(NSA)监控国内电话和电子邮件及"斯诺登事件"就引发了一波政治经济较量。 商品期货投资大鳄罗杰斯(James Rogers)在最近接受采访时称，十年前，中国政府掌控80%经济体，只有20%经济是由市场自由运行的。现今，美国政府操控经济比例由先前的20%上升到了40%。中国政治逐渐趋于民主化，经济实力也日渐壮大。因此，中国经济在增长而美国经济发展缓慢也在情理之中。 美国是世界上最大债务国，美国政府每年面临巨额财政赤字负担。鉴于此，一旦第三次世界经济大战爆发，美国政府很难左右经济态势。唯一有效的措施或是美国政府放松对私营企业监管。 美国政府很难向从前独霸世界政坛，对世界经济的话语权或受到削弱。若经济战争爆发，美元即使不会崩溃，也将受到重创。鉴于此，建议普通大众多购买黄金白银等硬通货来规避风险。 Source:http://finance.china.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/20140606/2450967.shtml |
| 5 June 2014 - 数据：实物买家不惧金价暴跌 5月末积极加仓 Posted: 05 Jun 2014 03:32 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-05/165402127.html 2014-06-05 07:20:31 来源：FX168 全球最大实物黄金在线交易商BullionVault的5月投资者情绪指数为52.4，表明投资者更加倾向买入。而进一步数据显示，五分之一的净买家，出现在月末金价破位下跌之后。 金价在持续数周的三角震荡区间后，在5月最后一周大幅下跌，黄金市场弥漫一片悲观情绪。 然而，全球最大在线实物黄金交易商BullionVault的用户却对此不以为然。该机构5月黄金投资者情绪指数为52.4。指数高于50，表明倾向买入的投资者大于倾向卖出的投资者。 BullionVault拥有超过5.2万名用户，这些用户总共持有黄金加13亿美元。 BullionVault数据显示，5月净买家中有五分之一是在当月最后四天中有所动作的，正是这些买盘将该指数推高 。在此之前，该指数在解决2年最低水平附近。 而在5月的最后几天中，金价大幅下跌约50美元/盎司。很显然，投资者们都在利用低价买盘 不过，实物买盘对于金价的直接影响有限。短期国际金价技术面依然有很大的下跌风险。 下图显示的是过去三年间该指数的走势。在2010年2月，指数曾一度跌至48.8的低点，而在2011年9月则涨至71.7的最高点。 |
| 5 June 2014 - Indexology®: The Gold War of India’s Policy vs. U.S. Economy Posted: 05 Jun 2014 03:28 AM PDT From:http://www.etftrends.com/2014/06/indexology-the-gold-war-of-indias-policy-vs-u-s-economy/ June 3rd at 6:00am by Indexology Blog By SP Dow Jones Indices This questions whether gold can recover after its biggest historical drop since 1981. According to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is strengthening, labor market conditions are improving and inflation has been low in the expanding economy. According to Yellen, "looking ahead, I expect that economic activity will expand at a somewhat faster pace this year than it did last year, that the unemployment rate will continue to decline gradually, and that inflation will begin to move up toward 2 percent." These comments don't fare well for gold so India's import policy may be its only hope for price recovery. Below is a summary of questions from a recent interview about the driving forces of gold. Gold prices have cooled off in recent weeks and are hovering at around $1280-1290 an oz. The price is much below the year-before when levels of about $1380-1400 was seen in May 2013. What according to you is causing weakness in gold prices? The idea of gold as a safe haven means investors have used gold as a store of value. As the Fed tapers, the risk-off environment is subsiding with a potentially improving U.S. economy and stronger dollar, so the demand for gold as a safe haven has declined putting pressure on the price. What are the factors that can help gold prices recover from these levels? Do you see that happening any sooner? A crisis might drive up demand for gold, which we have seen in mini waves as compared with the sizable global financial crisis. Recently spikes occurred from the tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Other supporting factors could be if Indian imports improve from lesser restrictions or if the Chinese local premiums increased to about double their current $3 levels over the global benchmark. India has been a major gold consumer globally. The Indian government had taken measures to restrict gold imports to bring current account deficit under control. Are these measures hurting the gold market globally? How do you think Indian policies with regard to gold play a role in global price determination? Anytime an outside force interferes with the supply and demand equilibrium, there is an impact. India's restriction on gold imports has had an adverse effect on the price of gold by fundamentally enlarging the supply pool in circulation – or in other words – restricting demand from the world's second largest consumer. What are your views about the industrial metals' demand and supply scenario for the rest of the year? Do you think Chinese demand and inventory built-up would continue this year for copper and other metals? With low inventories across the commodity complex, industrials are more susceptible to supply shocks than demand drops. Opposite from the impact on gold price from India's import restriction is the positive price impact of the Indonesian export ban of nickel on nickel price, which is up 38.1% in the S&P GSCI in 2014. What kind of movement in demand and prices do you expect in overall commodities market during this year? The Chinese demand is having less of an impact on prices than the supply shocks since the inventories are low. The storage situations turned to shortages with diminished cushions to soften the blows of the shocks. This is a favourable environment for commodities from the combination of possible inflation and interest rate rises in conjunction with low inventories driving down correlations and up returns, again from supply shocks. We also may be at a turning point in the equity/commodity cycle that can be reflected through higher commodity performance than equity performance for the first time after six years. How much importance does Indian commodities market hold in global markets? Is the new government formation in India going to affect commodities market globally? How? India is an important consumer of commodities, though the futures market is not yet developed enough to have contracts included from local exchanges in major indices. If the new government creates growth that may help the economically sensitive commodities like energy and industrial metals, but if there is turmoil, then gold may get a boost. Several foreign investors and trade participants have shown lack of confidence in India's commodity exchanges, as the largest exchange in India, Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) is facing legal issues with its promoter getting arrested for allegations of financial scam. Has it affected the confidence of market participants and investors overseas? The market impact of investor confidence is difficult to attribute to isolated factors, especially on less developed exchanges. Again, generally, if investors feel fear, they may flee to gold as a safe haven rather than economically sensitive commodities. This article was written by Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities, S&P Dow Jones Indices. © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2013. Indexology® is a trademark of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI). S&P® is a trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, and those marks have been licensed to SPDJI. This material is reproduced with the prior written consent of SPDJI. Source:http://www.etftrends.com/2014/06/indexology-the-gold-war-of-indias-policy-vs-u-s-economy/ |
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