11 June 2014 - 欧银宽松提供绝秒拐点 黄金重返1640美元不是梦 |
| 11 June 2014 - 欧银宽松提供绝秒拐点 黄金重返1640美元不是梦 Posted: 11 Jun 2014 03:21 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-11/165579582.html 2014-06-11 07:02:34 来源：FX168 CMC Markets高级市场分析师Colin Cieszynski周二(6月10日)研究报告中称，上周欧洲央行(ECB)颁布了"史无前例"的超级宽松货币政策，包括降息、新一轮LTRO以及可能的欧版QE，而这或许意味着黄金市场正面临一个绝佳的拐点，长期有望重返1555-1640美元/盎司。 上周四(6月5日)欧洲央行(ECB)宣布下调指标再融资利率10个基点至0.15%，预期为0.10%，这也是自2013年11月以来，央行再度降息。同时，央行还宣布下调存款利率至-0.1%，行长德拉基随后也表示欧洲央行将会执行一系列的长期操作，包括新一轮4000亿欧元的LTRO(长期再融资操作)，以及实施ABS(资产支持证券)购买。 Cieszynski指出，"2013年国际金价大跌的不光是因为美联储(FED)在6月暗示将逐步缩减QE，欧洲方面的动作也不可小觑。过去18个月来欧洲的银行一直在向欧洲央行偿还首次LTRO(长期再融资操作)的贷款，帮助欧银的资产负债表削减了约1万亿欧元，而这事实上就是在"隐秘地"收紧流动性。" 另一方面，根据最新的研究成果，Cieszynski意识到过去几个月影响金价的主要因素正逐渐从美元转向欧元。他强调当初美联储在实施第三套量化宽松政策(QE3)后，不少人都预期金价将升穿2000美元/盎司，但事实证明后来并未没有，反而在2013年录得28%的大跌。 下图显示，尽管和历史数据对比并不明显，但过去几个月黄金价格与欧洲央行资产负债表的关联性远高于美联储。可以看到每次欧洲央行资产负债表收缩，金价也相应地会出现下跌。 至于为何欧洲与金价的联系越来越紧密，Cieszynski表示背后的主要原因是欧洲各个地区的互联性。他强调，"在欧元区成立之前，希腊的问题可能只归希腊自己考虑，但随着欧元区的建立以及欧元的普及，希腊的问题自然也会引起法国和德国投资者的担忧情绪。除此之外，相对于北美国家，欧洲更将黄金视作一种财富的重要储存方式，因此一旦欧洲再次爆发危机，欧洲人有更大概率选择黄金来保值。" 2010年欧洲正经历金融危机爆发以来最艰难的时刻，当时黄金正充当着优异的避险资产。而截至2014年为止，欧元区依然没有走出通缩的阴影，这也是为何上周欧洲央行要用如此"大手笔"的宽松货币政策来刺激通胀上涨。Cieszynski预计此次宽松将使得欧洲央行的资产负债表再次扩张5650亿欧元，差不多过去18个月削减总量(1万亿欧元)的56%。 对于黄金方面，Cieszynski指出，在上周四欧洲央行公布利率决议后，金价大涨超过20美元，这或许正暗示在经历三年的下跌趋势后，黄金市场正面临一个主要的转折点。如果未来金价延续与欧洲央行资产负债表的关联性，或许意味着有望在未来数个月收复此前56%的跌幅。而目前金价从历史高位1920.50美元/盎司下跌至1250美元/盎司的50%-62%回撤水平正位于1555-1640美元区域。 |
| 11 June 2014 - Gold At A Turning Point After ECB's Unprecedented Action - CMC Markets Posted: 11 Jun 2014 03:07 AM PDT (Kitco News) – The European Central Bank's unprecedented monetary policy announcement last week could be the turning point the gold market needs to generate long-term momentum, said a market analyst. Colin Cieszynski, market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a research report released Tuesday that in the last few months he has noticed gold's primary influence has shifted to the euro from the U.S. dollar. He said one major factor behind gold's lackluster performance is European banks' repayment of the central bank's loans from its first Long-Term Refinancing Operation during the last 18 months. This repayment process allowed the ECB to embark on "stealth tapering," as it reduced its balance sheet by about a trillion euros, he said. During the same time period, the Federal Reserve embarked on its third round of quantitative easing program. "You would have thought that with all that money the U.S. was printing that gold would have shot through $2,000, but it didn't," he said in an interview with Kitco News. He added that this scenario demonstrates that gold is reacting more to the ECB's balance sheet than to the Federal Reserve's. Cieszynski admitted the link between gold and the ECB isn't obvious, but the trend has become made clearer over the last few years. The chart from CMC Markets shows how gold has tracked the ECB's shrinking balance sheet more than the Federal Reserve's expanding balance sheet. A major factor behind Europe's growing influence over gold is the interconnectedness within the region, he said. "Before the eurozone was created if Greece had a problem it was considered only their problem. Now because of the currency and the growth of the European Union, a problem in Greece causes concerns for investors in Germany and France," he said. "Europeans also see gold as an important store of wealth, more than North Americans, so if they become nervous they are more likely to buy gold to protect themselves." Since 2010, during the height of the European financial crisis, gold acted as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical and financial instability. However, Cieszynski added the ECB's shift in monetary policy could cause the yellow metal to revert back to its traditional function as a hedge against inflation. To stimulate growth and boost inflation, the ECB opened the flood gates: cutting interest rates, announcing a new EUR400 billion LTRO program, ending its weekly sterilization program and introducing the possibility of outright asset-backed purchases, Cieszynski explained. "This means that we could see the ECB restore (EUR565) billion of the (EUR1) trillionish it took away or about a 56% restoration," he said. He added that gold's immediate rally following the ECB monetary-policy meeting "may have signaled a major turning point for the yellow metal after nearly three years of declines." "If gold continues to follow its recent trend of tracking the size of the ECB balance sheet, it could potentially stage a 56% retracement of its losses over the last few years in the coming months. A 50% to 62% retracement of the previous downtrend suggests the $1,555 to $1,640 zone could potentially be probed," he said. |
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