Gold Trend April 30th 2014 |
| Posted: 29 Apr 2014 09:44 PM PDT Follow The Raw Follow The Raw & Let Your Dreams Come True I_ Open Real Account ( Standard ) & Get Free €50 ( No Deposit Bonus ) --> http://tinyurl.com/qh8mxc7 This exclusive offer is available between 25/03/2014 and 25/06/2014 Join us now What You Waiting For?  Gold Trend April 30th 2014 Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Medium Term ~ Neutral – Need a close above 1292 in April to maintain neutral trend. A close below 1272 bearish. Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– 1265-1272 downside target met, now need close above 1312 for neutral reading and 1322 for bullish. Short Term ~ Neutral– The next cycle turn is due April 29th (plus or minus 72 hours) this week. Last week's low at 1268 met target 1265-1272. Need close above 1312 for bullish reading. Initial Resistance 1300-1307 2nd tier 1312-1317 Initial Support 1282-1293 and 2nd tier 1267-1277 The last update listed resistance at 1303-1307 and the high was 1302. Support was listed at 1282-1293 and the low was 1286. Note-- there are a few comments on GDX near the end of the report you might keep a look out for. IT'S THE LAST DAY OF APRIL AND GOLD IS RIGHT AT THE MEDIUM TERM MOVING AVERAGES (1292-1296) AND BELOW THE 200 DAY AVERAGE. MONTHLY CLOSES ARE VERY IMPORTANT PRICE CONFIRMERS. We need to close above these numbers on Wednesday and Friday of this week. Wednesday will be a big day on the macro calendar. The FOMC winds up its two-day meeting and will likely continue with its gradual QE taper - but there will be more interest in whether we see a change in the tone of the policy statement after the hawkish surprise from the March meeting. We note that the S&P500 and 10yr UST yields are both broadly unchanged since the March 19th FOMC. It will also be interesting to see the Fed's take on the recent positive US economic data surprises. The Fed is not the only G3 central bank meeting on Wednesday with the BoJ finishing its second April meeting on the same day. Though the market expects the central bank to stay put for the time being in terms of policy as the effects of recent sales hikes wash through the economy, there will be some focus on its updated semi-annual outlook including GDP and inflation forecasts from 2014 to 2016. Wednesday's data docket is pretty full. The US will print its advanced Q1 GDP – consensus is for growth of 1.2% on an annualized q/q basis in what was a weather-affected quarter. The ADP employment report will give us a preview of what to expect for Friday's payrolls. The Chicago PMI for April will be released, as will German and Italian unemployment data. Amid all the recent talk about the possibility of ECB easing, Wednesday's Euro area CPI report for April takes on additional significance. Consensus expects headline CPI of 0.5%, the lowest in four years. The US treasury will announce its quarterly refunding plans. The 1265-1272 target was reached last Thursday but it would have been much cleaner if the drop was inside the short term cycle window which is now in play until Friday. We discussed support was 1282-1292 for Monday and the low was 1292.10. Tuesday's support at the purple channel lines is the 1282-1288 area watch that Green 200 hour moving average near 1292 as it gave us support on Monday. Resistance is 1303-1308 and 1312-1316 at the dual gold lines. From a trend line perspective we don't show additional resistance until 1340-1347 but the 1322-1331 area should also be a consideration. 1322 has been a major number since it made the crash low on April 15,2013 and is a weekly reversal number. The 1331 area is where price would be above February and into March territory in price and is also the April high.  The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday. Any pullbacks to the purple channel line MIGHT be considered potential short term trade to buy. The problem that exists is the NON FARM PAYROLL is on FRIDAY. That is yet another obstacle in front of us if we choose a long trade in gold. That is usually the most volatile day for gold and it is the last day for the Short term cycle turn window. So it is not out of the question to test 1272-1282. It's also important that the short term trend does not turn up until the dual gold channel lines become support. So there is a lot of consideration as to the risk of entering at the moment. The consideration for a long entry might therefore be better to wait and see if the 1272-1282 area is tested or perhaps lowering buy intentions there. There is nothing to say that the control boyz cant challenge that Fib support area at 1265 or more. One look at the hourly chart still shows a downtrend. The only clue we have of a potential low in place is the FLUSHOUT that occurred on Thursday. We do have to admit that the move there does hold a high potential that a low was made. At minimum we would need to be above that dual blue downtrend line to say that the trend has turned up. Even the HUI has pulled back to just below the moving averages on Monday. So there's a lot of uncertainty that still engulfs gold at the moment. What Next? There really is a lot of apprehension in the charts as the short term ones go back and forth between the moving averages. On Monday night, the HUI, NUGT, GLD and GDX were slightly below the averages and on Tuesday night, slightly above. The hourly gold chart has not broken the downtrend channel (neither has silver). The daily chart shows the 1272-1277 area as a good support point and with last week's low at 1268 we could still pullback to that area without breaching last week's low. A BREAK ABOVE and CLOSE ABOVE 1307 is the first signal that the upside is gaining favor. Either way---gold still has to get by FOMC on Wednesday, and NFP on Friday. We looked at the seasonal and May is one of the strongest months of the year, but only when gold is in a bullish trend. 2012 and 2013 did not play out on the seasonal. We need to CLOSE APRIL ABOVE 1292-1296 to maintain Neutral readings and not bearish ones. Thus we can't rule out another May surprise to the downside at the moment. This is what price is giving us to work with. Recall March, where price dropped over 100 dollars the last two weeks to avoid a bullish medium term signal. There is a short term cycle low due between now and Friday. But the FOMC and the NFP payroll is also between now and Friday. Those are the two most important monthly events that rank as high as options expiration on the big contract months. And on top of all that we don't have an UPTREND as we enter Friday on the hourly chart. We keep hitting the line but have not conquered it. It's best to let it happen and the try to find an entry. If we do get a spike to supports, ok then try and catch it with a reasonable stop. Anyone who tells you what is definitely going to happen these next few days is guessing. It can go either way here. The ONLY evidence of a low is that FLUSHOUT from last Thursday at 1268. If we get a pullback near 1277 ---- ok then a reasonable stop below it might be worth a trade attempt. Just keep in mind that there is no guarantee. Patience and limiting risk is utmost. The markets will be here for the rest of our lives. We don't have to take risk bigger than necessary. And yes, that is so hard to do. So is making money in markets like this. Once this correction is really over ---anyone who has money left will be able to expand that capital. This will not always last like this and TRENDS like 2010 and 2011 will return at the TIME GOLD decides. Remember, it's the last day of the month and it's a crucial time.Samer Al Reifae support5002@vantagefx.com  Get the newly designed trading tools package that can enhance your trading and assist you in achieving your trading goals. Maximize returns and discover new trading opportunities with this wide range of seriously advanced tools. What is the SmartTrader Tools Package? Nine unique and powerful trading tools completely designed for MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and available in one user-friendly, easy-to-install package. The package includes:  Sentiment Trader At a quick glance, see what the general sentiment is and trade directly within the same window  Correlation Trader Determine correlation patterns between pairs in one app with key figures & notes  Session Map A visual world sessions map synced to your local time-zone with calendar events  Trade Terminal Advanced trade execution and analysis tool for quick, precision trading  Excel RTD Link The bridging tool for Excel pros allowing you trade from Excel based trading rules  Alarm Manager Go beyond just receiving alerts. Automatically trigger orders or close trades based on your pre-set rules.  Correlation Matrix A flexible and comprehensive matrix grid. See at a glance correlation scores and the strength of patterns.  Market Manager Customise and create a Market Watch window with different layout options  Connect Panel Your personal pick of news feeds and Binary Options trading direct from MT4 How do you get the package free? Visit our SmartTrader Tools webpage for more information on each tool and how to register. Why Vantage FX? Trade with Winners Australian financial service providers, Vantage FX, have received a multitude of awards over the years including those from IB Times, Deal Makers, The World Finance Foreign Exchange Awards, Smart Investor and many more. Vantage FX have Award-winning Execution Speeds Competitive spreads from 0.0 pips 24/5 Premium Customer Support  The Gold Price & Trend Predictions blog made for gold traders to find good news and to provide the traders with daily price predictions and to learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in my blog. Welcome to my blog where you can learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.The material is all created by myself and not copied from anywhere. There is a lot yet to come since there is a lot that you need to learn, and there is a lot that I need to share with you! So please just be patient – it will be worth it.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you . So just go now and start learning! Below is a quick guide of how this website is structured, so you can find what you are looking for fast. Remember that I update the pages every day so either check back often. In this section you will find quite a long article of what Forex is all about. If you are a beginner, this is a must read. It explains in detail what is required to start trading, what you should do and not, typical traps to avoid as a beginner and a lot of valuable information which you as a beginner must digest and learn prior opening any Forex account with real money. In this section you will find your road map on how to become a real successful trader couple of months as from today. In this section you will know the 3 major areas – Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Trading Physcology. In this section you will find a gold mine of information about the technicalities of Forex. We will start from the very basics covering all the Forex jargon words which you will be hearing every day and we will be taking you up to the level required to finally learn to trade like a pro – technical analysis, also found in this section. In this section you will see the tips that will help you stay away from crap forex products, which unfortunately the Forex market is invaded with. This section has a very detailed article on how to avoid being scammed in this ruthless world of Forex. I will explain in detail six tips that you need to look for prior purchasing any products. Even though most of the time you may claim your money back,the time wasted is never returned. You should have used that time to learn how to trade! Read it!    YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. Do your own due diligence. No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. King Regards |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Australia's Award-winning Forex Provider / Vantage FX To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
0 Comment for "Gold Trend April 30th 2014"