Gold price | The <b>Gold Price</b> Lost $19.70 or 1.51 Percent to Close at $1288.60 |
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Lost $19.70 or 1.51 Percent to Close at $1288.60
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Held its Own Today, Down $1.20 at $1287.70
- Do 2 Year Treasury Rates Guide the <b>Gold Price</b>? | InvestmentWatch
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Lost $19.70 or 1.51 Percent to Close at $1288.60 Posted: 07 May 2014 04:47 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE lost $19.70 (1.51%) to $1,288.60 while silver lost 30 cents (1.53%) to close Comex at 1929.8c. Before I say anything else, I will face the riddle in silver and gold prices. After those dramatically strong reversals, they ought to have proceeded higher, but today they didn't. That might mean lower prices ahead, some lurking spike, but I am going to interpret by the other fork. Until we see lows below April's lows, I'm going to assume both are headed higher. Should you draw a trend line from the March $1,392.60 high through the April $1,331.40 high, you'd also catch the other April high at $1,306.50. Last Friday's rally burst through that downtrend line (a "breakout"), carried to the 50 DMA, then backed off. Today carried gold below its 20 and 200 DMAs, but stopped short of that downtrend line -- could be classed as that "final kiss good-bye" after a breakout. Must hold $1,285 or gainsay that call. Don't put that ruler up! Draw another trendline across recent silver tops. Start with February's 2218c, ignore March's 21.795, but connect to April's 2040 and 1995. Over THAT downtrend line the SILVER PRICE broke out on Friday, and now has traded back to it. Must hold 1930c or contradict. In Greek tragedy they had a cheap trick to get the actors out of an impasse in the script: the deus ex machina. When the characters are painted into a corner, a crane backstage ("machina") would lower down a character ("deus", a god) who with a wave of his hand would overcome all difficulties. So deus ex machina or god from the machine is not great writing, just a contrived device to overcome a poorly planned plot. In the same way, I could every day explain market movements by pointing to the Nice Government Men. More, a matter of notorious fact and law and government policy the US Treasury intervenes in markets through the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (Plunge Protection Team, primarily for stock markets) and in the silver and gold markets (Exchange Stabilization Fund, Gold Reserve Act of 1934, etc.). Thus it is not conjecture but hard fact that your yankee government intervenes in markets. But not every day. More, because markets are so huge, they can only manipulate at the margin, and never successfully long term against a primary trend, witness their "suppression" from $4.01 silver price and $252 GOLD PRICE to $20 and $1,290 today. If that "success" ain't the hallmark of a government job, I don't know what is. Yet although they don't manipulate every market every day, sometimes they do, especially when they want to skew public perception. To convict of a crime, you must show that the criminal had Motive, Means, and Opportunity. Do the NGM have Motive lately to manipulate gold? Well, with a war brewing and the dollar tanking and $3+ trillion of newly printed money waiting to hit consumer prices, I'd say so. Nor do they want folks to see stocks tanking and gold rising. Even as great a nincompoop as Alan Greenspan knew that the public views gold's price as the barometer of US dollar's health. Do they have the means to Manipulate? Go visit www.GATA.org if you need proof, but they've been intervening in markets for over 80 years that I know of. And the opportunity arises whenever they take it up. All this is my sideways explanation of why gold and silver MAY have dropped today: the NGM simply couldn't stand to leave gold alone while the dollar is tanking and gold offers a safe haven from potential war. (I do not, by the way, put much credence into "safe haven premiums" on gold. They vanish as quickly as they appear.) On the other hand, gold and silver may be signaling some as yet unresolved weakness, some lingering doubt over both metals that requires time and lower prices to resolve. By the way, the NGM let down a DEA magna et crassa ex machina today when Mother Janet Yellen spoke to congress. This assuaged all those panicky stock investors and pumped up the stock market, and apparently bopped gold on the noggin. Looking deeper, where she said anything in the blizzard of persiflage, she said they would keep interest rates low for a long time. That of course is GOOD for gold, because it lowers the opportunity cost suffered by receiving no interest while you hold gold. Never mind. To the details: Dow gained back 117.52 (0.72%) to 16,518.54 after losing 129.53 yesterday. S&P500 added 10.49 (0.46%) to 1,878.21, after losing 6.94 yesterday. That seems awfully volatile and indecisive. Outcome will probably spikes to new highs soon, but stocks might also suddenly tank. Odds are against vastly higher prices. Dow in gold is simply sawing up and down sideways without any resolution. Rose 2.19% today to 12.82 oz (G$265.01 gold dollars). Dow in Silver jumped up 1.96% to 854.02 oz (S$1,104.19 silver dollars). Bounced up off the 20 DMA. Should rise further. US dollar index rose 11 basis points, a bound that would make any dead cat proud, to 79.26. The euro backed up 0.11% to $1.3913, but solidly broke out yesterday for a trip to $1.4000 or higher. Yen fell 0.23% to 98.54 cents/100 yen. Dollars stands on parlous slick ground, slicker than otter snot. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Held its Own Today, Down $1.20 at $1287.70 Posted: 08 May 2014 05:05 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE held its own today, down $1.20 at $1,287.70 while the SILVER PRICE lost 20.4 cents to end at 1909.4c. Both are calm and subdued today, but the pressure is on. They must stand fast here or suffer another downward spike. I have to drive up to Paris (Tennessee, not France) to speak at 6:45 to the Volunteers for Freedom Tea Party meeting at the Paris Civic Center, 650 Volunteer Drive on "Reviving Local Economies." The premiums on US $20 gold pieces have collapsed in the past two months. (Premium is the amount you pay over the coin's melt or gold value.) Usually I strongly DISrecommend these coins, because their premiums are too high and fated to disappear as the bull market progresses. Charts of the last 12 years plainly witness this long term premium decline. With the gold price at $1,290 the $20 Liberty (minted before 1908) in Extremely Fine grade would cost $1,402.50, a 12.4% premium over its 0.9675 troy oz gold content. At the same GOLD PRICE, the $20 St. Gaudens type (minted 1908-1934) in About Uncirculated grade would cost $1,423.25 or 14% over melt. These prices include a 3.5% commission over wholesale, so if you are entitled to a lower commission from us, they would cost even less. I am not pushing these coins since even at these premiums they are a bit pricier than I like, but if you ever want to own U.S. $20 golds, this would be the time to buy them while their premiums are low. After heart surgeries in 2008 and 2012, my wife Susan is again having heart problems. In the past y'all have been kind and generous enough to pray for her, and I find myself a beggar again. Would y'all please pray for Susan's healing? I will be most grateful. And I almost forgot: she also has to have a cataract removed (second time) tomorrow morning. Please add that to your prayers, too. God willing, I will return tomorrow. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Do 2 Year Treasury Rates Guide the <b>Gold Price</b>? | InvestmentWatch Posted: 08 May 2014 05:37 AM PDT by GoldCore Today's AM fix was USD 1,291.25, EUR 926.03 and GBP 761.13 per ounce. Gold fell $18.40 or 1.41% yesterday to $1,289.40/oz. Silver slipped $0.25 or 1.28% to $19.31/oz. After rising to near its highest level in three weeks early yesterday at $1,315/oz, gold experienced its biggest intraday price fall in three weeks yesterday, falling to $1,290/oz by close of New York trading. Silver likewise retreated from the $19.70/oz level to the $19.20/oz range. The price weakness in the precious metals was attributed to apparent de-escalation of tensions in the Ukraine conflict after Russia promised that military exercises near the eastern Ukrainian border would be scaled back, and Putin called for separatists in the south-east of Ukraine to postpone an independence referendum planned for May 11th. Gold and silver prices were also undermined by remarks from Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair, who appeared yesterday before the U.S. Congress in testimony about the U.S. economic outlook. While Yellen didn't say anything unexpected and reiterated that short-term interest rates would remain near zero, her confirmation that the U.S. economy would still be supported was interpreted as a positive for risk assets. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank meets today in Brussels to decide whether to alter their closely watched benchmark and deposit rates. Consensus economist estimates indicate no changes, with the benchmark rate expected to stay at 0.25% and the deposit rate to stay at zero. Gold is now trading again in a very narrow trading range below $1,300/oz, and the market does not seem to want to commit to push the gold price significantly in any one direction, with investors appearing to be waiting on the sidelines. Global Macro 360
With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) down near a 2 year low and 10 year bond yields touching 2.6%, McWilliams highlights that on previous occasions when the USD has touched these levels, gold investors have got burnt, since their expectation that the USD would weaken further, and that the gold price would rally, did not materialise. Likewise, there is no real conviction that 10 year yields will fall below 2.6%. Indeed, economic polls suggest that the 10 year yield is expected to rise for the remainder of this year, as is the shorter 2 year yield. Last time short-term rates spiked, the gold price fell through $1200. This fear of rate hikes is likely to be keeping bullish gold sentiment on the sidelines.
Note: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies. GoldCore has partnered with Global Macro 360 to offer GoldCore readers a discounted 6 month or yearly subscription membership to David McWilliam's daily market insights. Follow Global Macro 360 for more in depth economic analysis on the global macro economy, including the gold price. Click Here for your discounted subscription to Global Macro 360 |
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