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Buying Gold | Is Now The Time To Buy Gold? (IAU,GLD,GLL,PHYS) - Investopedia | News2Gold

Buying Gold | Is Now The Time To <b>Buy Gold</b>? (IAU,GLD,GLL,PHYS) - Investopedia | News2Gold


Is Now The Time To <b>Buy Gold</b>? (IAU,GLD,GLL,PHYS) - Investopedia

Posted: 14 May 2014 03:10 PM PDT

Is the recent rebound in gold too good to be true? After falling hard in 2013 – posting a decline of 28% – the precious metal managed to claw its way upwards to revisit $1,300 an ounce. Many analysts began to believe that the yellow metal was about to rally. As such, funds like the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE Arca:IAU) once again saw inflows.

But some big-name strategists are saying that investors shouldn't be buying into the bling just yet. There are more declines and better prices around the corner. And when they hit, investors should be buying all they can.

Down To $1,000 Per Ounce

First, according to technical analysts at Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC), gold's charts aren't telling a great story. Analyst MacNeil Curry expects gold bullion to be range bound before moving downwards to $1,215 per ounce. That echoes similar predictions from investment bank UBS Inc. (NYSE:UBS). The reason for the dour forecasts has to do with the strengthening U.S. and European economies. Additionally, higher interest rates and a strong greenback continue to weigh heavily on the metal. According to one stagiest, if it wasn't for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gold could fall to the $800 to $1,000 per ounce range.

Which is exactly where famed investor Jim Rogers says to begin buying.

Rogers, who has been a big supporter of gold and other commodities for years, believes that a big gold correction could come soon. The former hedge fund manager estimates that a 50% correction every three-to-five years is normal for any asset class, and gold is no exception. Gold peaked at just over $2,000 per ounce back in 2011. Rogers also says that dwindling demand from China will weigh heavily.

Rogers adds that many of the long term catalysts for higher gold prices are still in place. The various quantitative easing programs and money printing will end badly, resulting in the potential collapse of the euro and dollar as well as triggering higher commodity prices and inflationary pressures, he believes. Gold remains a good insurance policy any of that happens.

Getting Ready To Buy Gold

Investors with a longer term view or those who are worried about the return of inflation may soon be getting a gift in lower gold prices. They should be ready to pounce. The easiest way continues to be the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE Arca:GLD).

The $32 billion ETF is physically-backed and represents the share of gold bars stored in a vault on behalf of investors. The ETF features high liquidity and relatively low operating expenses at 0.40%. Likewise, the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (Nasdaq:SGOL) stores its bullion in neutral Switzerland, while the UBS E-TRACS CMCI Gold TR ETN (NYSE Arca:UBG) uses futures to get its gold exposure. Both SGOL and UBG are perfect substitutes for the GLD.

Another potential option for investors could be the various gold-backed closed-end funds or CEFs. Due to their structure and fixed number of shares, CEFs can trade at discounts to underlying values. That means investors can snag gold at even bigger discounts to market prices. The two most popular funds – the Central fund of Canada Limited (NYSE:CEF) and Sprott Physical Gold Trust (Nasdaq:PHYS) – can both be had for discounts of 4.92% and 0.50%, respectively.

Finally, for those investors not willing to just wait for lower gold prices, there is the option to short the metal before buying it. The ProShares UltraShort Gold (NYSE Arca:GLL) is designed to deliver twice the daily inverse return of gold bullion prices, while the PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE Arca:DGZ) can also be used- minus the leverage effect. Investors can ride these two funds down, before selling them and switching over t one of the long funds.

The Bottom Line

According to several strategists, gold could fall further this year. Does that make it the best buying opportunity in years? If so, is now the time to short the shiny stuff?

 

Jim Rogers <b>Buying Gold</b> Dips But Not U.S. Stocks | Seeking Alpha

Posted: 12 May 2014 04:13 PM PDT

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And The First Thing Ukraine Will <b>Buy</b> With IMF Money Is... | Zero <b>...</b>

Posted: 06 May 2014 05:49 AM PDT

A month ago, it was alleged, that Ukraine - under cover of night - loaded its gold reserves onto a plane and shipped them off (for safekeeping) in the US, as the potential price of 'liberation'. So how ironic that, given the massive gas debts that Ukraine owes to Russia (and prepayments pending), and sizable bond maturities pending, the first thing that Ukraine's National Bank governor will be buying with his freshly minted loan from the IMF is... buy a billion dollars of gold.

We presume Gazprom still gets its payment and bondholders get paid off - because that seriously impair 'investor confidence' which is, as they note below, is what is crucial to stabilize the nation's economy... but it seems the Central bank has other priorities...

As ITAR-TASS reports,

Kiev will use the first portion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan for augmenting its gold and currency reserves in order to stabilize the financial situation in the country, National Bank Chairman Stepan Kubiv said on Monday, May 5.

"Over $1 billion from the first portion of the loan will go into the gold and currency reserves of Ukraine, which will strengthen the financial system of the country. The remainder will go to the budget to stabilize the macroeconomic and financial situation in Ukraine," he said.

Kubiv believes that the IMF loan "will send a positive signal to foreign investors and domestic entrepreneurs, improve the investment climate in the country and stabilize the hryvnia".

On April 30, the IMF Board of Governors approved a two-year standby credit facility of $17 billion for Ukraine. The first portion will amount to around $3.2 billion.

What is odd is that Ukraine's gold reserves have been soaring in recent years - so it's hardly been a confidence-inspiring move for Ukrainian entrepreneurs and foreign investors so far?

So the big question we are left wondering is - whether all the IMF is doing is "giving" Ukraine money so it can buy gold as proxy for the NY Fed...
with that next batch of gold also set to be confiscated by the Fed and shipped off to Germany (and maybe even Switzerland) to cover their growing repatriation demands.

One wonders if this news has anything to do with the fact that since the approval of the IMF "loan" gold has had its best 2 days in 4 months...

Your rating: None Average: 5 (28 votes)

Jim Rogers <b>Buying Gold</b> Dips But Not US Stocks

Posted: 05 May 2014 12:00 AM PDT

Jim Rogers Buying Gold Dips But Not US Stocks
Written by Sumit Roy  |
May 05, 2014

Investment guru gives his view on the markets.

When Jim Rogers talks, investors listen. Rogers may be the world's best-known commodity investor, with his Rogers International Commodity Index and best-selling books, including "Hot Commodities." HAI Managing Editor Sumit Roy recently spoke with Rogers from his home in Singapore about a wide range of market topics.

HardAssetsInvestor: After dropping 29 percent in 2013, gold has rebounded a bit this year. Is the bottom in, and if so, where do you see prices going?

Jim Rogers: I'm very bad at market timing. I'm a very bad short-term trader, so I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. I do own gold, but I have hedged some of my gold. I expect there will be another opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next year or two.

If that means gold is under $1,000, I hope I'm smart enough to buy. If it means gold is $1,600 because America and Iran end up going to war, I hope I'm smart enough to buy it. In my view, it's more likely there will be another chance to buy gold lower than now, and that's why I've hedged some of my gold, but I'm not selling.

HAI: What do you think about the situation between Russia and Ukraine? Is it something that commodity investors should be paying attention to?

Rogers: Absolutely, if for no other reason than the fact that both Russia and Ukraine are huge commodity producers. Ukraine especially is a large agricultural commodity producer and has been for centuries, and it's been awfully good at it for centuries. I don't know if this is going to disrupt production or not, but if it does, that is just that much less supply on the market.

HAI: I'm curious as to your thoughts on Federal Reserve monetary policy. We saw another tapering of the Fed's QE program last week. Do you think they did the right thing with all this quantitative easing, and do you think there will be repercussions now that they're ending it?

Rogers: It's a disaster for all of us, for the whole world. They never should have done it in the first place. Because they are bureaucrats and academics, they didn't know what else to do. It's going to be terrible. Never in the history of the world has debasing of currency been good in the long term or the medium term. Sometimes it has helped in the short term, but it's certainly not going to be good for us in the long term.

And this is the first time in recorded history when you've had all major central banks printing money at the same time, so when this ends, it's going to be a disaster for the whole world.

Commodities tomorrow: <b>Gold</b> safe haven <b>buying</b> - CNBC

Posted: 05 May 2014 01:00 PM PDT

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