Buying Gold | <b>Buying Gold</b> This Akshaya Tritiya? - Maps of India | News2Gold |
- <b>Buying Gold</b> This Akshaya Tritiya? - Maps of India
- <b>Gold</b> Investors Weekly Review – May 2nd | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds
- China Controls The <b>Gold</b> Price :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b>
| <b>Buying Gold</b> This Akshaya Tritiya? - Maps of India Posted: 01 May 2014 07:27 AM PDT May 1, 2014  Buying Gold This Akshaya Tritiya The third day of the Vaishaka month in the Hindu calendar is called Akshaya Tritiya. Akshaya Tritiya and Dhanteras have been the two days that Indians traditionally buy gold for religious purposes. Well, in all fairness, Indians need no excuse to buy gold. Akshaya Tritiya provides the perfect moral sanction to splurge on gold jewelry, bricks, and coins. In the Mahabharata, the Lord Sri Krishna handed the Akshaya Patra to the Pandavas with a promise that their wealth would never diminish and that their coffers would forever remain full. The gold bought on this day will increase manifold, it is believed, and gold has been India's traditional symbol of wealth and plentitude. This year Akshaya Tritiya falls on May 2, Friday. This is considered all the more auspicious since Friday is all the more suited to buying the metal. This year, however, the sheen seems to have worn off the precious metal and the usual discounts, offers, and other hoopla are conspicuously absent. Gold Trends Gold has always been India's favorite investment option. This explains why India was the world's largest importer of gold till 2012. In 2012, India imported a whopping 860 tonnes of gold but 2013 was not a good year for the metal. A burgeoning trade deficit and weak rupee has spurred serious curbs in the import of gold by traders and merchants causing a sharp drop in the import levels. The prices too seem to be floundering on global cues. The first quarter of 2014 has seen a weak trend, and short-selling of the bullion. While admittedly in India, gold is not a mere investment option. Gold is bought compulsively for a variety of reasons and not merely for its returns. This means that the spot prices are likely to be higher than futures prices and gold buyers often end up paying a premium amount to receive physical delivery of the metal. And yet prices are unlikely to see any major hike soon.
What Are My Options? The country's national obsession is the yellow metal – we buy gold for investment purposes, for social reasons, for ritual purposes, as adornments, gifts, and keepsakes. Gold may now be bought in different forms – as jewelry, coins or bars, as Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) or as gold fund of funds (FoFs). ETFs and FOFs are recent developments in the Indian markets and have clear advantages for the serious investor. The security of the gold is way higher in ETFs and FOFs since physical gold is liable to damage and loss including theft. The purity and quality of gold are not worries that an electronic investor needs to concern himself with but in a country like India where physical buyers tend to believe, rather blindly, the neighborhood jeweler, the guarantee of purity on physical gold is rather low. In case of ETFs and FoFs the investor may recover almost the entire amount at the time of sale but not in the case of physical gold. Also, in some cases physical gold attracts wealth tax but not electronically traded gold. One clear advantage for those buying physical gold is that they will be eligible for a capital gains tax of 10% only if the holding is beyond three years while those holding ETFs for over a year will need to pay the tax on profits made over a year. Now with a plethora of options, let us look at the Akshaya Tritiya forecasts.
Reign It In The glint of the much coveted yellow metal seems to have dulled in the past months. The bull cycle that gold saw about 3 years ago now looks like a distant memory. Those who invested in the metal last year on Akshaya Tritiya have seen an appreciation about 12.3% but financial experts are warning against any serious gold purchases as investment in the current market scenario. If you are an individual buying gold coins in small quantities or investing in ETFs or FOFs (also in small quantities) seems to be the best bet. Predictions are that gold prices are likely to fall further with a strengthening Rupee, once the new government comes to power. Bullion sentiments are weak and are unlikely to show any sharp spurt in the next year or two. It is also quite likely that gold prices may go in for a sharp drop following a bit of a rally due to the Ukraine crisis, experts predict. This Akshaya Tritiya, instead of investing in gold you may want to donate to bona fide charitable causes – the risks are few and the gains unparalleled. An Indian. A thinker. A mother. A writer. An incurable romantic. An experimenter. A socializer. A dreamer. A revolutionist. An idealist. A nomad.  | |
| <b>Gold</b> Investors Weekly Review – May 2nd | <b>Gold</b> Silver Worlds Posted: 04 May 2014 07:37 AM PDT In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. Gold closed the week at $1,300.62, down $2.58 per ounce (0.20%). The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index fell 0.28% on the week. This was the gold investors review of past week. Gold Market StrengthsGlobal demand for silver jewelry exports from India soared 59 percent over the past year as industry officials expect further growth in exports this year. Trade organization officials expect exports to rise in the 2014-15 season as jewelers try to meet rapidly rising demand from China, Russia, and the U.S. The CPM group, a commodities consultant, has reported silver demand for jewelry rose to 266.5 million ounces in 2013, the highest level in at least 10 years, increasing its share of the declining global supply of silver, which only reached 971 million ounces in 2013. Gold jewelers in India, the world's second-largest consumer, are expecting a surge in demand at the country's bullion buying festival this week. The anticipation for the Akshaya Tritiya festival, which is considered by the nation's more than 900 million Hindus as an auspicious day to buy precious metals, has driven jewelers to buy gold from importing banks at premiums as high as $110 per ounce over the London fix price. Gold Market WeaknessesA U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging staff report "conservatively estimates that more than 10,000 Americans have been victimized through [precious metals] schemes, with losses around $300 million." Seniors, looking for a safe haven for their life savings, have been led into buying leveraged gold, silver, platinum, or palladium bets under the impression that they are participating in safe investments. The sellers scam seniors with multiple fees and interest costs that benefit scammers, while leaving the seniors' principal to bear all the risk of the leveraged bets. Gold fell $2.58 per ounce for the week, as positive data in the U.S. lowered demand for the precious metal. The Fed meeting appeared to be a non-event as the cut of an additional $10 billion in asset buying matched economists' predictions. Hong Kong gold exports to China offered a relief, as net imports reached 80.6 tonnes in March, down from 111.4 tons in February. Silver, which fell 0.99 percent for the week, is being undermined by its association with gold despite nine-year-high buying by makers of jewelry and solar panels. Gold Market OpportunitiesThe latest Platinum and Palladium Survey by GFMS, the leading independent precious metals consultancy, shows the impact on platinum by South African strikes has been muted; however, palladium has begun to move strongly. The highly successful launch of two South African palladium ETFs, together with supply constraints arising from the events between Russia and Ukraine are further emphasizing the market deficit for the precious metal. As such, GFMS believes palladium has bottomed out already and expects the robust fundamentals to propel the price towards a test of $930 per ounce before year-end.  palladium outlook in 2014 Gold Market ThreatsMorgan Stanley bank analysts almost "outbear" Goldman Sachs analysts on gold price, according to Mineweb's Lawrence Williams. Morgan Stanley's analysts suggest gold will trade down to $1,168 in the second half of the year, and will continue trending down to $1,138 in 2015. The main driver, according to the analysts, is the fall-off in Chinese demand caused by a weakening economy and depreciating currency. However, Chinese gold import demand has continued to show resiliency, even as the currency depreciation makes gold more expensive in local terms. February and March import data from Hong Kong show imports of over 190 tonnes, roughly in line with the pace of imports in the fourth quarter of 2013. ABN-AMRO, the largest Dutch bank by assets, revised its gold forecast price down to $1,235 per ounce as it expects the U.S. economy to accelerate, and U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar to move higher. The bank released its outlook to coincide with the Fed's announcement of a further $10 billion monthly taper. Important macroeconomic indicators to follow next week are U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM, Chinese CPI and PPI data, and the Japanese Leading Index, which is expected to show further deceleration. | |
| China Controls The <b>Gold</b> Price :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b> Posted: 30 Apr 2014 11:49 AM PDT
What has come through the pages of this and other reports on the gold market there is that China is not only the main force in the global gold market, but they control the gold market. With the acquisition of so much gold in the last year and an ongoing persistent demand in the future, they have effective control of the gold price and the market. They play their control very cleverly so that it is not apparent. You may be asking, so why isn't the gold price at $2,000 or much, much, higher? It's because they have found a way to buy gold without pushing up the gold price. If we are to believe the numbers being put out by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, plus local gold production, government and local buyers absorbed just 400 tonnes short of the entire world's newly mined gold. This leaves just scrap [a diminishing number at these prices] and all disinvestment [including the 880 tonnes from U.S. gold ETFs plus the 400 tonnes of physical gold sold by Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase and both their clients, in 2013] left for the rest of the world. 2014 will be a different matter because the 1,280 tonnes sold out of the U.S. last year has gone and we do not expect it to return. This has reduced supply back to slightly more than 4,000 tonnes. Just this alone creates a demand bottleneck, which has to shrink if the gold price is to remain at current levels. If, of course, India eases gold import restrictions, then demand will expand by another 500 tonnes, thereafter. That supply is not available at current prices! If the World Gold Council's number of 1,132 tonnes of gold imported into China is correct, the gold price is likely to trade higher because of the loss of U.S. supply. If we are to believe the numbers delivered by the Shanghai Gold Exchange then the gold price cannot remain at current levels and 2014 will prove a watershed year for gold! As well as being inscrutable, the Chinese are canny buyers. There have been no reports of Chinese central bank buying, because the People's Bank of China does not buy gold directly. It uses agents who, when the P.B.O.C. decides it is in the national interests to revise their gold reserves, deliver the gold, bought on their behalf, through S.A.F.E., the agency buying for them. We are certain China, through their selected bullion banks, are buyers of gold both for the retail market and for the 'official' in both London and New York 'on the dips'. This ensures they are only seen by their bankers, when their dealers have stock to sell. We do not believe that China chases prices. As a result, the bullion banks, licensed to import gold into China, are not visible as Chinese buyers, but just as another professional acting for unknown clients, leaving China's presence in the market almost unnoticed. To ensure prices stay low, the gold they buy comes mainly from 'off-market' sources. And this is the key to getting volume at the right price. As you noted in our last article, the gold price is not an accurate reflection of demand and supply. If China can source gold directly from refiners, gold miners and other markets and use a 'reference' price to price that gold, then there is no danger that the sheer volume of gold they buy will disturb the markets where gold is priced. Many gold miners and refiners use the p.m. Gold Fix as a price used for contracts. It is no strange matter for this to happen. It by-passes markets and lowers costs. More importantly there are no on-market rumors inciting professionals to ramp up prices to make it difficult for the Chinese to buy. China has been a buyer of gold mines across the world. The gold mined there will follow the direct route to China. What this pattern of buying does is to draw in a huge volume of gold, taking stock out of the market and away from traditional buyers. A vital point that we need to make regarding China is;
If this is best achieved by lower prices, then China will act to ensure lower prices. If higher prices are what it takes they will act accordingly. The only word of caution here is that low prices enable the available discretionary savings of consumers in the retail market to buy a greater volume of gold than higher prices would. While the leading U.S. banks believe they control the gold price and that it will move in the opposite direction to the state of the U.S. economy, the reality is that if China decides to lift prices because it can access more gold, it can easily do so. If it prefers lower gold prices it can engineer the situation to leave them low. They have full control in this regard. Neither U.S. banks, nor High Frequency Trading has the power to lower their control. Indeed it appears that the Chinese are taking full advantage of those in the U.S. who want to see lower gold prices and making room for them. What these market players are doing is ensuring that gold in the developed world is moving from west to east ahead of a time coming, in the near future, that will require as much gold as possible to be accessible to nations in a changing, turbulent, financial world. Hold your gold in such a way that governments and banks can't seize it! Enquire @ admin@StockbridgeMgMt.com Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com
By Julian D. W. Phillips Copyright 2014 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved. What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market. Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.
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In addition to the latest excellent study of the Chinese gold market by the World Gold Council, we have received other reports on the Chinese gold market that differ with the conclusions drawn by the World Gold Council. But we shouldn't be surprised by this, not only because of the opaque nature of the Chinese gold market and the dearth of accurate statistics that are accessible. Which ones are right is critical for the conclusions each draw paint very different pictures of the future of the gold price.
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