9 May 2014 - 重视增储黄金的重要性

Posted: 08 May 2014 09:28 PM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-08/164580541.html

2014年05月08日03:35 来源：光明日报

黄金是世界上唯一的非负债货币资产，也是唯一能够跨越国家、语言、种族、宗教、文化的全球公认的货币资产。黄金是国家经济安全的最后一道防波堤，黄金储备能够保证国家在发生危机时拥有更大的自主权，关系到国家经济安全。

当前，黄金仍将在抵御经济风险、维护国家金融安全方面发挥更加重要的作用。特别是未来货币战争很可能愈演愈烈，这就要求各国更加重视黄金的独特作用，防止金融风险的发生。尽管当前国际形势总体上是和平的，但也不排除个别时候、局部地区发生冲突，一旦面临封锁和局部战争的危险，唯一的支付手段很可能只有黄金。

我国已经是世界第二大经济体，但是离经济强国还有相当长的路要走，我国在国际金融及货币体系中的话语权还不够，最显著的标志是人民币尚未实现国际化。而黄金是超越国家主权的货币资产，具有强大的最后清偿能力，恰恰是一国货币走向国际的基础和保障。英镑、美元在成为国际货币时，其国家黄金储备分别占世界的50%、60%以上；欧元在创设时，欧元区国家的黄金储备合计1万余吨，超过了美国的黄金储备。人民币若要实现国际化，必须具有普遍接受性和价值稳定性，因此，除了国家信誉担保之外，非常重要的一点就是必须有足够的黄金储备作为基础，提高人民币的含金量和信誉度。

从我国目前黄金储备的实际情况来看，无论是黄金储备绝对量还是其占国家官方储备的比例都很低。从绝对量来看，目前全球官方黄金储备总量为3万余吨，其中美国有8133.5吨，占全球官方总储量的26%，一直保持全球第一；德国有3387.1吨；意大利、法国均为2400吨以上；我国是1054.1吨，列全球第6位，仅占全球总储量的3.4%。从黄金储备占国家官方储备的比例来看，美国黄金储备占国家总储备资产的71.7%，欧洲主要国家一般为40%～70%的水平，世界平均水平为10%左右，而我国仅为1%。

因此，要想使黄金在我国真正承担起其战略使命，有必要在国家储备资产中大幅增加黄金的比重，有计划地增储黄金。如何实现黄金储备的增长？除了人民银行直接从市场上购买以外，还应综合运用多重有效途径。

2013年我国黄金消费量达1176.4吨，和国内生产量426吨相比，缺口约750吨。解决这个缺口，目前主要是由具有黄金进出口权的12家商业银行通过进口标准金来弥补。然而由于商业银行缺乏检验手段和精炼能力，只能进口标准金，而把大量国外非标准金拒之门外，使我国本可以掌握和利用的国际资源白白流失。针对这一情况，可以适当放宽黄金进口管制，允许相关企业进口非标准金，然后运用自身技术和精炼能力加工成标准金，满足国内黄金市场的需求。

同时，建议设立相关国家黄金增储基金，针对境外各类黄金资源进行市场化投资，用于开发黄金资源、收购金矿及非标准金等。另外，也可探索设立专业的黄金银行，开展包括黄金定制、黄金融资租赁、黄金担保支付、黄金存储、黄金借贷、黄金产业链融资、纸黄金发行和交易以及黄金投融资等业务在内的多项业务，进一步增强我国对黄金市场的控制力。

（作者系中国黄金协会会长）

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-08/164580541.html

9 May 2014 - Kevin Kerr: Not buying gold now is ‘somewhat foolish’

Posted: 08 May 2014 09:26 PM PDT

From:http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/06/kevin-kerr-not-buying-gold-now-is-somewhat-foolish/

May 6, 2014

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is only one of many reasons behind higher prices for gold, according to a post by ITrustGold Editor Kevin Kerr that appeared in its 2014 Gold SuperCycle Report.

"Prospects for gold in 2014 have increased significantly in the face of fast moving Ukrainian developments," he wrote.

Prices for the metal GCM4 +0.28% have been very volatile in the short term, but the downside risk, especially when gold's decline last year is factored in, is "very limited," said Kerr, who's also editor of CommodityConfidential.com. Gold futures prices dropped 28% last year.

"Not taking a long position in gold is somewhat foolish at this stage," he said. (A long position is essentially a bet that prices will go higher.)

Kerr's comments are contrary to those of Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, who said in a recent note that gains in gold on the back of the turmoil in Ukraine represent a "sucker's rally." The best time to buy gold is during "post-crisis corrections, and not during the crisis-fueled rallied," he said. Read: Gold's gain is a 'sucker's rally', says Brien Lundin.

According to Kerr, other catalysts for gold gains include: The economic debacle and non-stop money-printing has "run amuck," and with resources getting tighter and tighter, there is going to be more "fiat (paper) currency sloshing around."

So consumers will need more of that paper money to buy more real things, he said, referring to the situation as hyperinflation.

One solution to hyperinflation is to switch to a non-fiat form of money, and one of the oldest currencies in the world is gold, Kerr said.

At the same time, the Chinese "cherish gold as the premier symbol of wealth and store of value," and they're buying the metal "hand over fist."

"If you're worried about the U.S. economy, we suggest you buy gold," said Kerr. "And if you're not worried about the Chinese economy, buy gold."

He admits that gold will have a "volatile time" climbing over $2,000 an ounce and beyond, but "it'll happen much quicker than most 'experts' think as demand picks up."

–Myra Saefong

Source:http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/06/kevin-kerr-not-buying-gold-now-is-somewhat-foolish/

9 May 2014 - 重视增储黄金的重要性

9 May 2014 - 重视增储黄金的重要性

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