5 May 2014 - 李生论金：金银逆袭而上今天将延续上涨 |
| 5 May 2014 - 李生论金：金银逆袭而上今天将延续上涨 Posted: 05 May 2014 03:36 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-05/164484387.html 2014年05月05日09:22 来源：和讯网 和讯特约 判断了非农的下跌,错过了逆转的拉升,其实这次非农我并不觉得可惜或者后悔什么,可能有的人看多被损了大涨,有的人看跌没有及时离场最后笑脸变眼泪,其实市场就是一个击鼓传花的游戏,做自己能把握到的就行。周五非农公布之前我说了非农将要暴跌,事实证明我的判断是正确的,1286上方的空单1275离场,后面的大涨不在我的判断之中,所以我选择了观望,有人骂我水平有限,没有做到多,市场多空不可能拿尺子去量,我也不是桥上算命的,天下何人无人骂?天下何人不骂人?做空赚钱还想着做多翻倍,非农数据远高于前值和预期,所以非农的下跌才是我真正要把握的利润,而且也成功抓住了。 回头一看,万众瞩目的非农大戏已落下帷幕,但数据对金融市场的影响却耐人寻味。此次非农数据可谓是异常强劲,金价也因此受到打压。不过随后金价的大幅反弹却令投资者摸不着头脑,究其原因,或许是市场在仔细研读非农数据发现一些数据并不如人意,使得投资者对美就业市场的信心受到削弱,从而提振金价。 另外,俄乌局势一直从未离开投资者的视野,近期两国政治局势不断升温,尤其是周五乌克兰政府军与亲俄势力发生了交火,市场避险情绪也明显升温,这也有助于此轮金价反弹。 而这些……仅仅是那些没有抓住行情的学员们找到的唯一可以安慰自己的借口,我都觉得有些牵强,行情涨了就说乌克兰局势影响,行情跌了就说缩减QE,但翻开帐面一看,烂的像小时候上学时候的书角一样,蘸点酱都可以吃了!!!在这个市场中,有些学员喜欢玩极限运行,有些则喜欢稳扎稳打,永远不要为市场的波动去找理由,因这次非农刚好在五一假期间,五一的时候我休息,在非农晚上找到酒店,给大家给出1286空单,于1275获利离场,至于后面大涨根本不在我的思路当中,所以我只做了自己有把握的单子而已。由于面临五一假期,国内金银市场于周四、周五休市,因此国内金银价格只是追随本周前半段国际金银价格的走势。 简单回顾一下上周五的行情,在强劲非农数据公布后上演过山车行情,先是急挫10美元,不多久以后又开始急速拉伸,上升幅度超过20美元,日低和日高只在数小时内完成反转。非农公布后的金价下跌应属正常现象,因非农新增就业人口大大超过预期,美国4月非农就业人数增加28.8万人 失业率降至6.3%,就业创2012年1月以来最大增加人数。同时4月失业率降至6.3%,创2008年9月来的新低。美联储在经历两天的会议后决定将每月资产购买规模进一步缩减100亿美元至450亿美元,一如市场预期。由于此前市场已经将该举动计入,因此汇市和金市变动较小。此外,美联储还将联邦基金利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变。整体市场波动在预期当中。 我认为唯一能保持金价上涨的因素是乌克兰的新闻,这个国家有一些骚乱,市场正在予以密切关注。告别了非农等重磅事件,投资者本周面临的基本面事件也可谓摩肩接踵。英国央行、欧洲央行、澳洲联储均将公布货币政策决议,中国还将公布重要通胀数据。与此同时,市场呼吁央行将会采取削减利率或者实施量化宽松政策(QE)的呼吁正在加强。近期市场月、周线开始走强,多空双方各执一词,后市将需要时间和空间上的确认。 金融的水很深的,学会游泳就行,未必都想当运动员,尤其在面对经济数据方面的不确定性上,永远不要试想着为某一个数据代言,为每一次结局当裁判,前面我在博中讲过了,投机就是站对队伍,跟对胜利的一方即可。我做的再好,也还是有人指指点点,有人即便一塌糊涂,也还是有人唱赞歌,所以永远不要掉进他人的眼神,你需要讨好的,仅仅是你自己而已。 以目前的技术盘而言：早间开盘之后维持横盘震荡走势。月线5、10日均线开始收口即将形成金叉,附图指标MACD绿柱开始缩减,预视着后期将暂时以1270-1275为支撑点,形成一波反弹行情。同时周线两续两周下探至1275-1270区域之后快速反抽,都未能有实质性的下破,这将为后期反弹奠定了一定的基础。但短线压力主要位于5日均线1302-1304美元/盎司,突破之后将有望向1316美元/盎司运行。 日线上周五V型反转成功这破5、10及BOLL中轨压力,收于中轨上方,今天早间开盘之后在中轨位置徘徊不定。那么短线支撑将上移至1294-1295美元/盎司。今天盘中操作以此为支撑点回撤介入多单即可,上方关注1304压力位的突破。4小时大阳之后横盘震荡,只有回踩确认才能走的更远,亚欧盘关注1294-1304区间内的突破。综上所述：日内大方向预计将延续上周五非农逆转之势,再次震荡上行,回撤最佳介入点位于1294规下方,盘中操作以回撤做多为主,上方遇阻再择机做空即可。 操作建议： 1：回撤1294多,止损1289,目标1300-1304. 2：突破1304回撤1302多,止损1298.目标1310. 中色银：上周五白银方面照样也是探底回抽,晚间最终受压于日线30日均线位置夭折,回落收于10日均线上方。同时也是日线BOLL中轨位置。MACD在0轴下方成功金叉向上,向上3880是今天多头关键博弈的点位。下方支撑3835、3800两个位置,今天银子方面我认为难有大的异动,大区间3800-3885之间震荡,现在多空处于一个整理重新选择阶段,虽然上周五强势上涨,但始终未能突破一直受压的30日是均线位置,今天回撤在3810-3800可考虑入场多单,上方目标看至3865-3885附近。同时由于中色银与其他如天通银、粤贵银之间有报价误差,所以盘中操作切记算好偏差。 操作建议： 1：回撤3810-3800多,止损3780,目标3865-3885. 2：首次见3880-3885空,止损3905,目标3850-3840. 作者观点不代表和讯网立场 |
| 5 May 2014 - Gold bullion coins buying peace of mind Posted: 05 May 2014 03:33 AM PDT Will Deener wwrdeener@aol.com Published: 04 May 2014 08:23 PM Updated: 04 May 2014 08:28 PM Gold prices have been in free fall for the better part of a year after the so-called smart money folks abandoned this once-sizzling asset class for stocks. After topping out at almost $2,000 an ounce in September 2011, gold today trades in the $1,300 range — a 35 percent shellacking. Throughout all of last year, hedge funds and institutional traders withdrew money from the once-popular SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund. They also obliterated gold mining stocks, like Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrack Gold, which have lost half of their value. Typically, small investors would cower like mice from this kind of carnage, but an interesting trend is developing in one corner of the gold market. Throughout 2013, as the big boys were jettisoning their gold holdings, the little guys were increasingly buying gold bullion coins, specifically the American Eagle. The number of these coins sold increased from 1.1 million in 2012 to almost 1.5 million in 2013, according to the U.S. Mint's website. And so far this year about a half million of these coins have been sold, so if the current trend continues, it will be another good year for sales of American Eagle coins. They contain an ounce of gold and are typically priced about 5 percent above the market price of gold. A confluence of factors is attracting small investors to gold coins. For starters, they have grown increasingly skeptical of the stock market after two horrendous bear markets since 2000. And they have endured the calamitous trifecta of collapses of the Internet bubble, the housing bubble and the near collapse of the global financial system in 2008. Further, with U.S. government debt at $17 trillion and rising, many coin investors are hedging against the U.S. dollar tanking. "They want to have something tangible and a safe haven in case they ever need it," said Robert Burnside, director of precious metals trading at Dallas Gold & Silver Exchange. "They want something tucked away that they can use to barter for food or to trade during a bad economic situation." Also, geopolitical tensions, such as Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine or the banking crisis in Cyprus, always trigger an uptick in gold coin purchases. There was a run on Cyprus banks early last year. "Our sales have increased in the last few months," Burnside said. "We see more buying when we see people in Cyprus who can't get their money out of the banks." Historically, gold bugs have been easy targets for ridicule as they are sometimes portrayed as anti-government nut jobs nervously awaiting financial Armageddon. However, since the financial crisis, an increasing number of average investors allocate a small portion of their portfolios to gold — just in case. And even the most ardent stock-oriented investment managers now advocate holding a little gold. Stacy Hail, a 41-year-old Park Cities physician, said she and her husband, an attorney, have been buying gold and silver coins from Dallas Gold & Silver for about four years. She is aware how some people might view her gold purchases, but she believes gold is an important piece of their investment portfolio. "We are not two crazy folks holed up in a shack in the mountains trying to escape the world and the government," she said. "I am a practicing physician and my husband is a practicing attorney, and we live in the Park Cities." She voices the concern of many people when she says a wicked spurt of inflation awaits the U.S. because of the massive national debt and the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve. Both undermine the value of the dollar. Secondly, owning some gold coins might come in handy if we ever had a cyberattack on our banks or some other national disaster that forced banks to close. "I don't think most people understand that if you put a dollar in the bank, it can loan out $10," Hail said. "If you walk into a bank and try to take out $9,000, the bank may or may not have the money to give you." She and her husband also have a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds, but she owns gold coins "because I need to have in my possession something tangible." Interestingly, she's not that concerned when gold prices drop, because she's not buying it as an investment. She told me she has worked her entire life as a physician and she simply wants to keep what she has. "I am not trying to turn $10,000 into $20,000," she said. "I'm trying to keep my $10,000 from turning into nothing." Those interested in buying gold coins can contact the U.S. Mint directly or one of the many precious metal dealers throughout Dallas. With most of the major traders, hedge funds and institutions curbing their gold purchases, prices aren't expected to rise much, but as Hail said, that's not the goal anyway. "Most Americans are walking around with $5 in their wallet and a credit card," she said. "Go ahead and make fun of the gold people, but in a crisis you have to ask yourself, 'What if everything you put your hands on vaporized?'" |
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