The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20 |
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed at $1283.40 This is a Great Place to Buy
- <b>Gold Prices</b> 2014: What's Next After Tuesday's 2-Week High
- The case for higher US interest <b>rates</b> AND higher <b>gold</b> | MINING.com
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1303.20 Posted: 11 Apr 2014 05:21 PM PDT
The GOLD PRICE backed down $1.40 (0.7%) today to $1,318.70, while that rascal silver gave up 14.5 cents (0.1$) to 1993.3. Gold's loss signifieth nothing, as it remains above its 200 ($1,298), 50 ($1,314), and 20 (1,311.25) day moving averages, as well as support/resistance at roughly $1,318. Every indicator I watch points higher, so why am I gnawing my nails? Gold's moving slowly and that scoundrel silver won't climb up high enough to confirm gold's move. Of course, that is easily explained by the weakness in stocks, but still . . . The GOLD PRICE weekly chart shows upward bias, too, and gold stands above its 18 week MA ($1,284.43) and 50 week MA ($1,312.79) and barely above its downtrend line from August 2011. All burners lit. The SILVER PRICE actually fell back from its 20 DMA (2007c) today and closed below it. 2015c keeps stopping it. In fact, silver needs to throw a leg over 2050c and run. Yes, yes, all the indicators point higher, but this is awfully slow and trying. Back off and review the last year. The gold price must better its $1,434 peak from last August, then climb over $1,550 where it was clobbered last April. Silver needs to beat its recent 2218c high, then its 2512c August high, and then 225c where it fell off a year ago. Until gainsaid, the double bottom in June and December says silver and gold prices won't drop any lower, and that they have begun their next leg up. Bull markets always climb a wall of worry, so y'all ought to expect that now. Meanwhile gold and silver's best friends remain the Federal Reserve, world central banks, and the yankee government since their policies are bound to send them higher. Wall Street bled and bled this week, and no bandaids are in sight, let alone tourniquets. US dollar index broke, too, while silver and gold held up and the white metals (platinum and palladium) also gained. Nothing normal about this situation, and a stock market rout always carries in its bosom the threat of contagion to other markets. 2008 was not so long ago. Stocks had their worst week since memory runneth not to the contrary, and today only opened more blood vessels. Technically the damage astounds me. Dow lost 385.96 points this week or 2.4%, 143.47 points today (0.89%) 7 closed at 16,026.75. That's 3.3% lower than the high close on 3 April. Damage doesn't stop there. Dow closed today beneath its 50 day moving average ((16,172) -- 20 DMA (16,331.25) was left behind yesterday. Recall that in November last year the Dow "threw over" its upper boundary line. Today it crossed beneath it again, and for good measure punched thru the bottom Bollinger Band. February's low was 15,340.89. The Dow could fall much, much further as Don't overlook the Nasdaq Composite. It's lost 8.3% since its downtrend began on 5 March. Since 2 April it has lost 6.5%. It, too, languisheth far below its 20 and 50 DMA, and treadeth not far from its 200 DMA (3,936.25). Then there's the S&P500. Down 2.6% this week, it lost 17.39 (0.9%) today to end at 1,815.69. 200 DMA stands at $1,761.43 and the last (February) low at 1,737.92. Why do I mention the 200 DMA? In a rising market the price spends most of its time ABOVE the 200 DMA. From time to time in large corrections it will re-visit its 200 DMA, and wide knowledge of this fact means that investors will wait to buy there, and thus support the market. A bfreak below the 200 DMA is very bad juju. This is a rout, like First Manassas. The blue army is running back to Washington and throwing away rifle and knapsack as they flee. Mark, however: it is not impossible for stocks to return and make one last high in May. Dow in Silver dropped 0.54% today (4.36 oz) to 802.94 oz (S$1,038.14 silver dollars) in what appears to be a downtrend renewed after the correction from March through 1 April. Dow in Gold has really tanked. Dropped another 0.91% today to 12.16 oz (G$251.37 gold dollars) and skidded to a stop smack atop the 200 DMA. Bottom of that correction was 11.62 oz (G$240.21) so the DiG has not far to travel to confirm unequivocally a new downleg. US dollar index experienced a Niagara week, and waterfalls don't flow up. Gained 10 basis points today to end at 79.57. Stinks. Sits below its 20 and 50 DMA, but won't confirm a new debacle until it closes below 79. Euro has been the chief beneficiary of the dollar's woes, but is now stuck below its last peak. Ended today flat at $1.3876. Yen has met its major downtrend line and top of its 2 month trading range. Must fish or cut bait or row back to the dock. Flat at 98.42 cents/Y100. Could escape skyward. I watch the Philadelphia Bank Stock index divided by Gold because that reveals which way the investing public's confidence is leaning. The spread is a fraction, with the bank stock index as the numerator and the gold price as denominator. Thus when gold is rising faster than the Bank Stock Index the denominator is growing faster than the numerator so the graph falls. Voilà, chart is here: http://bit.ly/1sOiOAy This spread peaked early in January, sank with the gold rally/stock correction into end-February, rose as stocks rallied and gold corrected, and since 1 April has cascaded down to close at its 200 DMA today. It has twice already reached this point in March, not a hopeful sign. This suggests investors appetite for risk and confidence in financial markets is dropping as they adopt the motto, "In gold we trust, not banks." Another measure of dropping confidence or panic, call it which you will, is the yield on the 10 year treasury note. It has also looked like Iguaçu Falls lately, and has even fallen below its uptrend line to 2.619%. Bear in mind that yields (interest rates) fall as bonds rise, and bonds rise because there is more demand for the safety they offer. Sizeable shift like this rolls snake-eyes for stocks. Y'all enjoy your weekend! - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Closed at $1283.40 This is a Great Place to Buy Posted: 31 Mar 2014 04:48 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1283.40 Change : -10.40 or -0.80% Silver Price Close Today : 19.734 Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.035 Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01538 Platinum Price Close Today : 1418.50 Palladium Price Close Today : 777.50 S&P 500 : 1,872.34 Dow In GOLD$ : $265.08 Dow in GOLD oz : 12.823 Dow in SILVER oz : 833.97 Dow Industrial : 16,457.66 US Dollar Index : 80.240 Mercy! I hope y'all are listening to me, because silver and GOLD PRICES look prettier than a new puppy here. What! Have you lost what little mind you ever had, you nacheral born durn fool from Tennessee? Maybe, but maybe I ain't that big a fool after all. The GOLD PRICE lost $10.40 (0.8%) today to $1,283.40 but the SILVER PRICE only lost 3.8 cents (0.2%) to end at 1973.4. This disagreement shows up in the GOLD/SILVER PRICE, which fell from 65.436 on Friday to 65.035 today. Now I don't know nothin', not a durned thing, but I can look at a chart and report. The gold price has fallen back a little more than 50% of its December-March rise, right back to the running together of the 200 and 50 day moving averages, back to lateral support around $1,300 - $1,295. Stay with me now. From November through February gold traced out an upside-down head and shoulders reversal pattern. The neckline of that pattern strikes gold's price graph today about $1,283. So what? So after a breakout from that pattern, the market often trades BACK to that neckline for one final kiss good-bye, then turns around and races out the door. Other indicators are more oversold than government lies and propaganda. AND gold is skidding along, sliding down its lower Bollinger band. What about silver? For the first time today I looked at both silver and gold and saw a similarity in the charts. If you call silver's reversal range from November through February an upside down HandS, and you have to look very hard to see it, a line drawn across the shoulders (not the neckline) stands about 1950c. So, too, the downtrend line from April hits there, the line silver broke through and above in April, so right now it is kissing back to that line -- WHOOPS, which just happens to coincide with the 75% correction point. Put it on the razor's edge. Neither silver nor gold can fall much further than this without asking to fall a lot further. They will either stop and turn here or within a few points, or fall much further. I believe they'll turn. I believe this is a great spot to buy. I have to get out of here. I love y'all, but we have a Hereford sow that gave birth to 10 piglets over the weekend, I haven't seen them yet, and the sun is about to go down. Shucks, I forgot to tell y'all one more thing: Platinum and Palladium rose strongly today after falling hard last week. One more good sign. Mother Janet today made a speech in which she tried to un-say her mistake at the last FOMC press conference. Y'all may remember -- or y'all may have already purposely forgotten it as an item too silly and disgusting to bother cluttering your cerebellum with -- that Mother Janet made the false step of alluding to letting interest rates rise in six months. Mercy! It was like giving bad whiskeyand downers to a depressive -- stock market swooned at the prospect. So today she tried to correct that by speechifying that the Fed would have to keep interest rates low to help the job market. Stocks went manic. All this sounds a bit like Louis XIV worrying how all his illegitimate children are going to make a living. Why does that concern you NOW? Isn't it a little late for that? Besides, what does an academic and long time banking apparatchik like Yellen know what it means to strap on a tin bill and peck in the dust with the chickens? When did she ever meet a payroll? Or work two jobs just to keep food on the table? Or survive on unemployment? Ahh, yes, the little pee-puhl! Before you talk about 'em, you ought to know at least one, maybe two. Our nobility is just as arrogant as aristocrats of the French Ancien Régime, but not nearly as classy or good looking. In the end they are just nouveau riche Lumpenproletariat who've been to college, or Jeeter Lester enriched by usury. So Mother Janet's speech goosed stocks, but not enough. Harken, I will elucidate. Dow climbed 134.6 (0.28%) to 16,457.66 while the S&P500 leapt 14.72 (0.8%) to 1,872.34. That sounds like hearty progress, 'cept it did no more than propel both indices to the top of that even-sided triangle and stop. Now maybe they jump through tomorrow, but they're needing larger and larger clouds of Fed hot-gas to inflate them. 'Tain't progress. But with a drop in metals, today's Yellen-spellin' was enough to drive the Dow in metals up further. Dow in gold rose 1.7% to 12.82 oz (G$265.01 gold dollars). This corrects a little better than 50% of the fall from End December to mid-March. Garden variety correction. Dow in silver rose 0.12% to 833.21 oz (S$1,077.28 silver dollars), correcting about 75% of the December - February fall. Both indicators have stretched way up into overbought territory, which hints they will unstretch soon. The fabulous US dollar index, robber of widows and orphans, despoiler of nations, global parasite, betrayed its fans again today. It broke out upside from the little consolidation or flag it had formed, ran through its 50 DMA above with an 80.57 high, then sank like your glasses fallen out of your shirt pocket when you looked over the edge of the bass boat. Closed lower by 10 basis points (0.12%) -- puking sick weak action. Next move ought to be down. And this one was thanks to Mother Janet, too, since interest rates figure large in determining exchange rates, and Mama Janet said she intends to keep 'em low a long time. Hard not to conclude that the establishment WANTS the dollar to fall largely. Euro poked up its head 0.16% to $1.3770, but remains in its trajectory off the cliff. No big comeback there. Yen fell 0.3% to 96.88 c/Y100, trying to break out of its trading range to the downside. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Prices</b> 2014: What's Next After Tuesday's 2-Week High Posted: 09 Apr 2014 11:22 AM PDT Gold Prices 2014: Gold prices per ounce broke through $1,300 on Tuesday, ending the session at their highest level in two weeks. loading chart... Price: 126.93 | Ch: -0.08 (-0.1%)June gold finished the day up $10.60 at $1,308.90 an ounce. Spot gold ended the session on a favorable note as well, up $12 at $1,309.50. The yellow metal is up 1.1% in April, and up 8% year to date. Stoking yellow metal gains Tuesday was a weaker dollar and troubling headlines out of politically unstable Ukraine. Gold, a safe-haven investment, moves when market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions increase. Senior Kitco.com analyst Jim Wyckoff confirmed with MarketWatch that gold is indeed "getting a boost from some safe-haven buying interest and by solid losses in the U.S. dollar index. The Russia-Ukraine matter is back on the front burner of the marketplace Tuesday." The situation in Ukraine is growing grave. Tuesday, Russia's foreign ministry issued a warning that any use of force by Ukrainian authorities to extradite pro-Kremlin separatists could thrust the country into civil war. The separatists managed to gain control of government buildings in three eastern cities in Ukraine so far. Contradictorily, bullion prices have pulled back sharply from the $1,400 level they reached in mid-March. However, those prices reflect the dated news of decreasing geopolitical tensions, when Russia stated it has no intention of invading other parts of Ukraine outside of Crimea. Expect bullion to charge higher on the more recent developments to the east. Gold prices in 2014 gained additional momentum amid weakness in equity markets, and a March jobs report that was ho-hum at best. The yellow metal's gains this year are tiring out bearish sentiment - investors are waking up to the opportunity in gold's rise... The Bears Are Getting Tired, Boosting Gold Prices in 2014
But things are looking much brighter for gold - and gold investors - this year. "Gold has rebounded from late December into mid-March, tacking on about $200 an ounce, or nearly 17%," Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth said. "To a large extent, I think the bears were exhausted, and most (if not all) sellers had finally sold. So, gold was coming off a technical low and sentiment extreme around the $1,190 price range." Alongside bullion, gold stocks and gold exchange-traded funds took a beating last year. The bleeding, however, appears to have subsided. "The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), the largest physical gold ETF, sold off 42% of its metal between its record high in December 2012 and January 2014, or 564 tons of gold," Krauth explained. "That selling looks to have bottomed in mid-January and GLD holdings have started to grow again since then, a major trend reversal." Industry experts believe consumers in Asia are picking up the outflows. "Buying in that area has been exceedingly strong, with China's consumers buying up 41%, setting a new record of 1,065.8 tons and beating out perennial leader India at 974.8 tons," Krauth continued. There's another factor behind rising gold prices in 2014 - massive buying (by the hundreds-of-tons) from these institutions... Central Banks Will Keep Bulking Up Gold StoresIraq's central bank said Tuesday it might boost its gold position in the next several months. It's already purchased some 60 tons of the yellow metal over the past two months. In March, Iraq bought 36 tons of gold valued at $1.6 billion. It's now the 43rd largest holder of gold reserves globally. The move was aimed at stabilizing the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies. Turning a portion of oil revenues into gold reserves is one strategy recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for developing resource-rich countries. The Middle East country is also likely taking advantage of gold's "cheap" price. "Central banks took advantage of 2013's low gold prices to stocks up," Krauth said. "They bought 368.9 tons above the five-year average of 282.6 tons. And, China's central bank is thought to have loaded up since it last reported its official gold holdings in 2009 at 1,054 tons. I believe China's central bank has probably accumulated about 4,000 tons by now. But we'll have to wait for their next official announcement, which could come soon, to know for sure." What we do know right now is that the flight to the safe-haven metal is indeed back on, and investors can strengthen their portfolios - and nab significant profits - from this upswing of gold prices in 2014. Related Articles | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The case for higher US interest <b>rates</b> AND higher <b>gold</b> | MINING.com Posted: 09 Apr 2014 05:19 PM PDT A number of gold market analysts have made the case that the one major factor influencing the price of gold is US inflation-adjusted interest rates. Some analysts go so far as to say that the correlation is so strong that the gold price can be used as a predictor of interest rates, serving as an early warning system of both the direction and magnitude of the move in rates. In a new research note Julian Jessop Head of Commodities Research at Capital Economics published a graph showing just how strong the inverse correlation is between US 10-year real yields (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS) and the price of gold: The underlying reason for the relationship is that as yields rise – as is expected in the US – the opportunity costs of holding gold increases because the metal is not income producing. Higher rates also boost the value of the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price. The independent macro-economic research house notes that "taking this first chart entirely at face value, the eventual return of US real yields to more normal levels of around 2% would be consistent with the gold price falling back below $1,000 per ounce." That said, Capital Economics argues that there are a sufficient number of other factors at play in the gold market that improves the outlook for gold:
"The upshot is," writes Jessop, "we are sticking with our end-2014 forecast of $1,450."
Image by artemuestra |
Last year was an excruciating year for gold bugs. The precious metal took a shellacking, ending 2013 down a steep 28%.
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