30 April 2014 - Good To Hold Some Gold With Real Negative Interest Rates - Rosenberg |
| 30 April 2014 - Good To Hold Some Gold With Real Negative Interest Rates - Rosenberg Posted: 30 Apr 2014 03:53 AM PDT By Neils Christensen of Kitco News Tuesday April 29, 2014 (Kitco News) - It is appropriate to have some gold in your portfolio as inflation is expecting to push higher in the near-future, said the chief economist and strategist at one of Canada's pre-eminent wealth management firms. In an interview with Kitco News, Dave Rosenberg, from Gluskin Sheff and Associates, said that he is expecting inflation to rise as central banks around the world are no longer pursuing policies of price stability. Instead, central banks like the Federal Reserve are comfortable letting inflation rise to support an economy that is still in recovery mode. "Gold… as an inflation hedge does well during periods when policy rates are being held in negative territory in real terms, which (Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen seems to be foreshadowing," he said. "You want to be careful about how much gold exposure you want to have, but you certainly want to have some as a buffer." Rosenberg's inflation expectations come at a time when most of the focus has been on supporting the U.S. economy and the employment sector. On April 15, the U.S. Labor Department said its core consumer price index saw an annual increase of 1.7% in March and remains below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0%. Rosenberg explained that although the CPI data currently shows that inflation is not a concern, it is a backwards looking indictor. Higher commodity costs, a trend of higher hourly wages, rising rental costs and an increase in health care costs are all pointing to higher inflation down the road, he said. Although inflation and interest rates are not expected to hit double digits, Rosenberg said that there are signs that price pressures have bottomed and are now on the rise. He added that investors should try to go against central banks as they are maintaining policies to promote growth, and stave off deflation. "We're not talking about a return to the 1970s. I'm not saying we are going back to listen to disco music … or double digit inflation but I think you should put down the bet that the central bank will be successful in creating a moderately higher inflationary environment," he said. Rosenberg added that the expansion of the global marketplace and changing demographics don't support a drive towards inflation seen in the 1970. "There are a lot of structural forces that will impede the type of inflation we had in the 1970," he said. "I think the Fed would move aggressively against a return to perniciously high inflation rates. However, instead of at least preparing for higher price pressures, he explained that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are still trying to fight deflation with its "overt monetary accommodations" and balance sheet. "If central bankers are good at one thing, it is fighting the last battle," he said. Along with holding some gold, in the current environment of loose monetary policy, Rosenberg said he likes most of the commodity market, in particular the energy sector as other investment opportunities. The one area that Rosenberg would stay away from as an investment is the bond market. "Why would anyone want to own a 10-year U.S. treasury note at 2.70% when the Fed has been telling you that clearly they are more comfortable with inflation at 2.5% than 1 or 1.5%," he said. Although Rosenberg is expecting gold to do well as short-term interest rates remain in negative territory, he also warned that he is expecting the decade long-bull market to end when the Fed starts to shift its focus back to fighting inflation. |
| 30 April 2014 - 买实物金不是羊群效应 合理投资行为可取 Posted: 30 Apr 2014 03:51 AM PDT From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/04/30100417136227.shtml 2014年04月30日 10:04 来源： 中国证券报 因伴随着乌克兰局势的暂时缓和、美国经济摆脱极寒天气影响逐步走强、美联储缩减量化宽松（QE）规模步伐不变，以及市场对美联储或将提前加息的预期成为炒作话题等因素，国际现货黄金价格在今年第二季度进入了下行通道。同时，全球实物黄金市场也迎来了不温不火的销售淡季。 近期，金价走弱的话题再次让"中国大妈"成为了不少媒体的版面噱头。有媒体指出，从2013年4月12日至今，国际金价累计每盎司下跌180美元，而国内基础金价每克下跌46元。若按2013年4月国内黄金总销量100吨计算，当月购入的黄金至今合计亏损46亿元，抄底金饰品的"中国大妈"则跌得更多。 谈及去年的实物黄金市场销售热潮，不少专家和评论人士将"中国大妈"的行为归结为羊群效应，即从众心理。然而，回顾去年国际现货黄金价格大跌之初时的国内实物黄金市场销售情况不难看出，多个城市的实物黄金市场抢购热潮几乎是同时爆发，无法说清谁才是"领头羊"。 此外，长达一年之久的实物黄金销售热潮也并非是"中国大妈"们的专利。世界黄金协会在2013年第三季度《黄金需求趋势报告》中指出，在金饰需求方面，中国市场需求格外强劲，同比增长29%。 与此同时，中东和土耳其金饰需求也健康增长，而东南亚地区的增长势头尤为明显。在历经了8年的滑坡后，美国金饰市场连续第三个季度出现增长。 除中国外，东南亚地区金饰消费也十分强劲。2013年第三季度，中国香港、越南、泰国和印度尼西亚金饰消费需求分别同比增长 28%、14%、57%和19%。 不难看出，无论是"中国大妈"还是"外国大妈"，投资者们购买实物黄金的行为都是自发投资行为和理财方式，并非市场所谓的羊群效应。那么，是什么因素使得投资者们在去年不约而同的选择了进入实物黄金市场？ 首先，国际现货黄金价格在此前12年牛市行情中的表现，令不少投资者和消费者看到了黄金内在价值上升的潜力与稳定性。然而，不断攀升的黄金价格使得持有观望心态的普通消费者迟迟未能找到入手黄金的最佳时机。因此，金价大跌给普通消费者和投资者们提供了入手实物黄金的时机。 其次，"中国大妈"们认为自己的行为就是在进行投资。虽然在不少专业的投资者和市场人士眼中，"中国大妈"们购买实物黄金的行为与所谓的投资行为不能挂钩。但中国人传统观念中对于黄金的热情和"藏金于民"的理念根植，让"中国大妈"们更多看重的是黄金的内在价值，而不是外在价格。 世界黄金协会在近日发布的《中国黄金市场：进展与前景》报告中认为，"纯金"首饰在中国实物黄金消费市场中的地位非常牢固，因为"纯金"首饰是在售的唯一被认为是一种具有投资功能的珠宝首饰。 今年进入二季度以来，国际现货黄金价格的疲软未能让实物黄金销售市场再现去年的火爆场景。从媒体方面来看，"中国大妈"们出手与不出手都会被"嚼舌头"。 但投资本无对错，只要是合理的投资行为都是可取的，或许没有多少"中国大妈"在购买实物黄金的时候就想着何时把它卖了。 |
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