2 January 2014 - Gold rebounds with silver

Posted: 02 Jan 2014 03:09 AM PST

From:http://www.iol.co.za/business/markets/commodities/gold-rebounds-with-silver-1.1627964?#.UsVBt9IW2Jo

Singapore - Gold rallied from its worst year in more than three decades as a decline to a six-month low was seen spurring physical purchases, potentially prompting some investors to reverse bets on lower prices.

Silver jumped.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose 1.5 percent to $1,224.11 at 3:25 p.m. in Singapore from the $1,205.65 close on December 31, when prices sank to $1,182.27, the lowest since June 28.

The metal ended at $1,200.90 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Silver gained 2.7 percent since December 31.

Gold slumped 28 percent in 2013 for the biggest annual loss since 1981, halting a 12-year bull run as assets in bullion-backed exchange-traded products shrank for the first time since the first product was introduced in 2003.

US data on December 31 showed consumer sentiment and home prices climbed, underscoring the confidence expressed by the Federal Reserve when it said it will slow bond purchases this month amid an improving economy.

"The Fed is out, that's cleared, so with no incremental news flow on the monetary-policy front and shorts remaining elevated, we see some of that being squared and giving gold some temporary support," said Dominic Schnider, head of commodities research at UBS AG's wealth-management unit in Singapore.

"It's been technically difficult to break below $1,200, so it seems there is some genuine interest on the physical side."

While holdings in the 14 biggest bullion-backed ETPs tracked by Bloomberg contracted 33 percent in 2013, the US Mint sold 14 percent more American Eagle gold coins last year and sales at the Perth Mint in Australia increased 41 percent.

China Premium

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the volume for bullion of 99.99 percent purity climbed to a one-week high of 13,144 kilograms on December 30 as the premium to take immediate delivery in China rose to $29.63 an ounce that day from an average of $18.71 last year.

"The market has been holding well above $1,200 and that's driven by physical demand," said Wallace Ng, a trader at Gensha Metals Ltd. in Shanghai.

"We saw very good physical demand from China in December, which is likely to continue as we head into the Lunar New Year."

The Lunar New Year begins January 31.

Gold may extend gains by 3 percent in January as momentum studies turned bullish, according to Bloomberg foreign-exchange strategist Mark Cranfield.

Gold climbed above the 10- and 21-day moving averages and the next target is the 55-day average at $1,262.75, wrote Cranfield, whose observations are his own.

Fed Tapering

Fed officials said on December 18 that they will trim the bank's monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion.

The central bank will probably reduce the purchases in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg on December 19.

Gold for February delivery climbed 1.7 percent to $1,222.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York in trading volume that was 86 percent above the 100-day average for this time, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

Short gold holdings expanded 1.1 percent to a three-week high of 76,052 futures and options in the week ended December 24, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

Short positions refer to bets on lower prices.

Silver for immediate delivery traded at $20.0010 an ounce from $19.4717 on December 31, when prices fell to $18.8266, the lowest level since July 8.

Silver sank 36 percent last year, also the biggest annual loss since 1981.

Platinum traded at $1,392.63 an ounce from $1,371 on December 31, when prices capped an 11 percent annual decline.

Palladium was at $723 an ounce from $716.38 on December 31, extending a second yearly increase. - Bloomberg News

Source:http://www.iol.co.za/business/markets/commodities/gold-rebounds-with-silver-1.1627964?#.UsVBt9IW2Jo

2 January 2014 - 利率上升将令2014成为灾难唯有黄金才是机会

Posted: 02 Jan 2014 03:05 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-02/161089711.html

2013年即将过去，2014年即将到来。美联储终于开启削减QE规模，基准美债收益率重返3%，黄金价格在1200关口附近沉沦。对于广大投资者来说，新的一年是新的机遇，亦或是市场动荡的转折点？

　　美国经济是"药罐子"

　　GoldMoney基金创始人和主席、《纸币的泡沫》作者James Turk周二（12月31日）接受采访时媒体采访时表示，"试想一下，当美联储宣布削减100亿美元/月的购债规模时，美债收益率将扶摇直上。"

　　Turk指出，"公平地讲，因为美元资产的风险加大，美债收益率确实需要提高，才能吸引投资者。在过去10年中，美国经济早已是一个依赖市场干预和央行救助的'药罐子'。但是利率上升，对美国经济来说，依然是不治之症。"

　　美国经济已经过度依赖负债，即使是目前低迷的利率水平，也无法让经济复苏顺畅。现在美国经济对于负债的依赖，已经超过2008年次贷危机时水平，因此利率上升将会扼杀经济活力。

　　1970年，美国GDP规模在1万亿美元，信贷市场规模在1.6万亿美元，比值为1.6。到2000年，美国GDP规模增长值10万亿美元，而信贷市场规模暴增至28.1万亿美元，比值跳升至2.81。次贷危机爆发时，美国GDP规模在14.4万亿美元，而信贷市场已经到达臃肿的53.6万亿美元，比值为3.7。

　　滞涨会卷土重来

　　还记得沃克尔时期的美联储吗？当时天价的利率水平确实拯救了美元，但代价是1981-82年经济衰退。这也是在2008年次贷危机爆发前，美国自二战以来最严重的衰退。

　　Turk警告称，"美联储在9月份阻止（意外未开启削减QE）了基准美债收益率上3%，但我强烈怀疑这一次美联储能否阻止。利率上升将成为全球市场在2014年的最大难题，将导致灾难性的后果。投资者正在卖出长期美债，并且预期通胀将会走高。"

　　由上图观察可得，当10年期美债收益率年率变化接近2%水平时，美国经济极有可能出现新一轮衰退周期。Turk的警告并非危言耸听。

　　真相永远是真相

　　在这一系列的影响之下，唯一能够独善其身的，或许只有黄金。正如摩根大通（JPM）在1912年国会证词时说的，"只有黄金才是'货币'。"

　　对此，Turk表示，"真相永远都是真相，只是预期的价格会与时俱进。黄金在2014年可能会重新走高，一雪2013年前耻。"

　　当问及2014年黄金可能触及什么价位时，Turk声称，"我认为最终金价将会站上2000美元/盎司。"

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-02/161089711.html

2 January 2014 - Gold rebounds with silver

2 January 2014 - Gold rebounds with silver

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