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Bitcoin an Almost Exact Fit to Gold's Historical Chart - Visual Capitalist

Bitcoin an Almost Exact Fit to <b>Gold&#39;s</b> Historical <b>Chart</b> - Visual Capitalist


Bitcoin an Almost Exact Fit to <b>Gold&#39;s</b> Historical <b>Chart</b> - Visual Capitalist

Posted: 11 Dec 2013 08:45 AM PST

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Bitcoin an Almost Exact Fit to Gold's Historical Chart

It is often said that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Bitcoin, in just nine months, has done something absolutely tremendous in that respect. While increasing in parabolic fashion, it also managed to match up exactly with the 40 year gold chart – even to the most recent correction.

Putting the two charts side by side is simply eerie:

Bitcoin price vs. historical gold chart

In 1980, the gold price peaked at $850 USD during an inflationary environment where the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, the Soviets intervened in Afghanistan, and the Iranian revolution was taking place. In March 2013, Bitcoin began to rally because of the Cyprus bank holiday and subsequent haircut of depositors.

Bitcoin and gold would both come back down to earth, and then start their biggest moves. Starting in 2000, gold had 12 years of consecutive gains. Bitcoin, in November 2013, was stimulated by Ben Bernanke's comments to create the most significant price rally yet. At an interday high of the rally, one bitcoin was even momentarily equal to one ounce of gold in price.

Subsequently, they would pull back: gold corrected this year 25%. In early December 2013, China barred financial institutions from accepting bitcoin transactions. This prompted a correction as well.

Much has been said about the many similarities between bitcoin and gold. This goes even as far as to include supply, of which even those curves are almost of the exact proportions:

Bitcoin and gold supply stock

The main difference so far between bitcoin's last nine months and gold's historical chart: after bitcoin's latest drop, it has now almost already recovered.

Meanwhile, gold has been consolidating for months – will it be next?

11
DEC

3 <b>Charts</b> Point To An Upcoming Decline In <b>Price</b> Of <b>Gold</b> - Minyanville

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 08:50 AM PST

This week was full of action for precious metals investors and traders. Gold, mining stocks, and (especially) silver rallied in the first days of the week only to disappoint on Wednesday and Thursday. No wonder; the rally didn't have strong legs, as gold's strength was meager compared to that seen in the euro – another USD alternative.
 
In today's essay, I will provide you with three gold-related charts (courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). Each will tell a different story about gold's performance, but ultimately, they will all point in the same direction – the direction of another move lower in the price of gold.
 
Let's start off by taking a look at the chart featuring gold priced in the British pound.
 

 
As far as gold priced in the British pound is concerned, we saw a verification of the breakdown below the previous 2013 low, nothing more. The outlook remains bearish.
 
Even though we saw a rally in USD terms, and it looked quite bullish at first sight, keeping an eye on gold priced in other currencies warned that not everything about that rally was so bullish. It was not a true rally, but rather a verification of a breakdown.
 
We can say an analogous thing about the Dow (INDEXDJX:.DJI)-to-gold ratio. In this case, we had previously seen a breakout, and this week we simply saw verification thereof.
 

 
Last week I wrote the following:
 

That's one of the most important and useful ratios there is, as far as long- and medium-term trends are concerned. In particular, the big price moves can be detected before they happen (note the breakout in the first months of the year that heralded declines in gold).
 
I saw a breakout above the 12.5 level two weeks ago, and shortly thereafter, I wrote that with the ratio even higher today, we have a good possibility that the breakout will be confirmed and that we will see a big drop in the price of gold in the coming weeks or months.
 
The ratio moved even higher last week and this week, and it's already at 13.03. However, given the sharpness of the most recent move up, I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction to the previously broken 12.50 level before the upswing continues.

 
The Dow-to-gold ratio moved slightly lower earlier this week, which didn't change anything as it remained above the previously broken 12.50 level. The bearish implications remain in place.
 
The True Seasonal patterns have given us a hint that this week's rally was likely a temporary move before another significant decline. In the second "Market Alert" that my website posted on December 10, I wrote the following:
 

Additionally, the True Seasonal patterns suggest a final move higher between December 8 and December 11, after which gold usually declines well below the previous December low.

 
Here's why I wrote it.


 
Please note that while the average price that we are to expect after December 11 decreases, the quality of projection increases. This means that while the shape of the preceding rally is less clear, it's more certain that there will be a decline of some sort. This may also mean that the decline could be much greater than indicated by the pattern.
 
Summing up, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish and it seems that we might see another sizable downswing shortly. This week's initial strength was quickly invalidated.
 
I would like to emphasize that I continue to think that gold is likely to move much higher in the coming years. Gold is a system hedge, and with practically all monetary authorities trying to print and inflate their way out of their problems, the systemic risk will continue to increase.
 
However, markets are logical only in the very long run. In the medium and short term, they are emotional and vulnerable to multiple psychological traits that humans (who ultimately create markets) exhibit. Consequently, every bull market will also have temporary downturns without any good, logical reason – and it seems that this is where we are right now. The good news about temporary downturns is that they allow informed investors to take advantage of these emotional price swings and increase their profits. This means that instead of hating these corrections one might be better off by taking advantage of them.

For the full version of this essay and more, visit Sunshine Profits' website.

Twitter: @SunshineProfits

No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

<b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- Dec. 10, 2013 - DailyForex.com

Posted: 10 Dec 2013 01:43 AM PST

Start Trading Gold Now!

By: DailyForex.com

Gold continued to gain ground against the American dollar yesterday but remained within the last five days trading range. Comments from Fed policy makers showed that they would like to begin to wind down the quantitative easing program sooner rather than later but the market's reaction was somehow limited. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said "Based on labor-market data alone, the probability of a reduction in the pace of asset purchases has increased. A small taper might recognize labor-market improvement while still providing the committee the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014". I think yesterday's move was a reflection of the uncertainty in the market and continued short-covering.

Investors are well aware of the fact that a few strong jobs numbers don't make a trend and the Federal reserve will probably not want to push the button before the Democrats and Republicans strike a deal to fund the government. Meanwhile, gold charts paint a mixed technical picture. Prices are below the Ichimoku clouds on the weekly and daily time frames but the short term charts are turning positive.

XAUUSD Daily 121013

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and we also have a bullish Tenkan-sen (nine-period moving average, red line) - Kijun-sen (twenty six-day moving average, green line) cross. With that in mind, I won't be shorting gold until the bears take over and drag prices below the 1225 support at least. In order to confirm a stronger move, look for prices to close below the 1213 support level. In that case, I think the bears will be aiming for the 1200 level next. If the bulls manage to hold the XAU/USD pair above the Ichimoku clouds on the 4-hour chart, we could see the market climbing towards the 1252 level. Only a daily close above that resistance level might provide the bulls the extra power they need to tackle the 1268 level.

XAUUSD H4 121013

Kiwis buy bargain <b>price gold</b> - money - business | Stuff.co.nz

Posted: 15 Dec 2013 12:00 AM PST

Kiwis are snapping up gold after the price of the precious metal sank to one of its lowest levels in three years last week.

Spot gold prices dropped by US$30 to US$1224.90 an ounce on Thursday night on jitters that the United States Federal Reserve would finally end quantitative easing.

That sent the phones ringing at one of the country's biggest gold bullion merchants, NZ Mint.

Chief executive Simon Harding said gold was seen as a hedge against inflation so the prospect of rising interest rates meant the precious metal lost some of its allure.

There had been strong activity from both buyers and sellers, with investors divided about the US economy.

"It's really a dichotomous view of the market. For every person who thinks no, the Fed's going to ease tapering and gold's going to lose its shine, there's somebody else who thinks, this is a bargain, I'm going to climb in now."

At another major merchant, New Zealand Gold Hunters, it was all about the buyers.

Trader John Hunter said that had been a trend since April, when the gold price dropped US$200 to US$1611 overnight, the biggest slump in 30 years.

Demand was strong. "We are seeing a large number of significant purchases of gold - over $100,000."

It was a far cry from when gold peaked at US$1900 in 2011 and Hunter blamed investors on the gold futures market for dumping their stock.

"When they discovered they couldn't make the money they thought they could, they just kept on dumping it.

"I see this price continuing through till February, maybe March. The reasons for the price of gold climbing to its highs in 2011 haven't changed. The American dollar is still in deep trouble."

The gold price was still volatile on Friday but the New Zealand dollar was strong which meant Kiwis were getting more for their money, Hunter said.

On Sunday the price of gold had bounced back to US$1236.50. Fairfax NZ

- © Fairfax NZ News

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