30 December 2013 - Cheaper gold brings new customers to Dubai in droves |
- 30 December 2013 - Cheaper gold brings new customers to Dubai in droves
- 30 December 2013 - Early 2014 the best time to buy gold
- 30 December 2013 - 2014年金价将迎转机
- Aura Emas & Perak menjamin masa depan yang cerah - Fadillah Normi Binti Muhamad
| 30 December 2013 - Cheaper gold brings new customers to Dubai in droves Posted: 30 Dec 2013 02:18 AM PST From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=222800&sn=Detail MUMBAI (MINEWEB) - The recent falls in US gold prices helped by the Fed's announcement that it will begin to taper its quantitative easing programme, has a flip side to it for consumers in Dubai and for gold jewellery exporters in India. Lower gold prices are driving massive sales in the Gulf region, with new, younger customers getting in on the act. More than 40% of the gold jewellery from India is exported to Dubai and other Gulf countries. With the price of gold diving nearly 28% this year, from $1,700 an ounce in January to nearly $1,200 this month, Indian jewellers operating in the Gulf region have never had it so good. ``Gold has fallen 36% since the record high in 2011, largely due to heavy selling by institutional investors. Given the high demand at our 25 odd stores across the Gulf region, we often tend to sell and then buy on the same day,'' said Manishbhai Patel, an official of Manubhai Zaveri Jewellers in India. Patel, who participated in the four day Dubai International Jewellery Week at the start of the month, said scores of young customers had lined up to buy from the over 360 exhibitors at the show. Among the highlights at the event was an intricate one of a kind headpiece, launched by Lucky Stone, an Indian jeweller, which represents `A bird's eye view of Palm Jumeirah.' Chinese customers were also reportedly swarming the show in droves. Amit Dhamani, CEO of Dhamani Diamond said he was forced to employ Chinese staff in a bid to serve his Chinese buyers better, given that they formed the largest percentage of his clients. According to customs data out on Friday, Dubai's non-oil foreign trade crossed hit Dhs 1.009 trillion ($274.9bn) for the first nine months of 2013, compared to Dhs 918 billion ($250bn)for the same period in 2012. Of this, gold represented the largest share of Dubai's imports. LOWER PRICES A senior manager at Joyalukkas Jewellery in Doha stated that there was a clear advantage in lower gold prices. He pointed out that the local market gained between April and June, when the price of gold dropped from $1,600 to $1,400 an ounce. The manager noted that jewellery sales across the nation registered an appreciable increase in October and November due to the Eid festival. Incidentally, Joyalukkas is an Indian company, with over 90 retail outlets in 10 countries. The jeweller entered the Gulf in 1987 to open the family's first overseas jewellery business, and the stores now dot the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, among other nations. Today, Joy Alukkas' name appears on the Forbes list of India's 100 richest people. The volatility in gold prices and the Indian government's decision to put a check on the precious metal's imports have not affected Joyalukkas' business. Stating that India is a gold loving country and that retailers in his home country would not experience a drop in demand in a big way, an official pointed out that the senior patriarch has decided to stay put in Kerala, in South India, while his son John Paul Alukkas, now sits in Dubai, and looks after the growing overseas businesses. He pointed out that the current softness in gold prices has proven to be a windfall for Dubai's jewellery business and new shoppers. For the first time since 2006-07, the Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group is reportedly offering one kilo of gold each day as a raffle prize over the month long Dubai Shopping Festival, as against the 500 grams that was on offer for the festival last year. The festival starts from January 2. Gold retailers hope the higher stakes plus the softening in gold price could bring on more shoppers who would be able to buy to their hearts content. Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=222800&sn=Detail | ||||||||||||||||||
| 30 December 2013 - Early 2014 the best time to buy gold Posted: 30 Dec 2013 02:16 AM PST From:http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1392755/early-2014-best-time-buy-gold? Investors and consumers looking to take advantage of lower gold prices are advised to buy next quarter, with some analysts tipping prices to recover later, although they are set to post this year the biggest loss since 1981. But some doubt the attractiveness of gold as a medium-term investment, saying its function as a hedge against inflation is likely to wane as interest rates increase after the US Federal Reserve starts its gradual withdrawal of ultra-stimulative monetary policies that resulted in near-zero interest rates. Low interest rates encouraged gold buying as negative real interest rates - gross interest rates minus inflation - saw investors trim bank deposits and seek alternative investments to hedge wealth erosion by inflation. This year, the price of gold was on track to record its first decline in 13 years on an annual average basis, said a research report by Germany's Commerzbank. It has fallen about 27 per cent this year as investors, mostly Western ones, redeemed exchange-traded funds backed by more than 800 tonnes of gold in anticipation of the Fed's tapering of quantitative easing. The extra supply was absorbed primarily by Asians buying jewellery and investing in bars and coins, attracted by the lower prices. Hong Kong is a key conduit for the import of gold into the mainland, and a sharp fall in gold price in the second quarter saw a buying frenzy by mainland tourists at Hong Kong's gold shops, which helped support a brief rebound. Gold also lost its lustre this year as stock markets in developed nations soared to record levels amid low interest rates while inflation remained tame despite fears over ultra-low rates. Prices dropped briefly below US$1,200 an ounce after the Fed announced on December 18 that it would cut its monthly bond purchases by US$10 billion to US$75 billion from January as the economy in the United States improved. Commerzbank analysts forecast the price of gold would average US$1,300 next year, while those at Australia's ANZ tipped US$1,269 and Bank of America Merrill Lynch US$1,294. UBS and Standard Chartered's calls are a less optimistic US$1,200. The year-to-date average is US$1,413. Gold price hovered below US$1,300 for most of the fourth quarter after falling to US$1,326 in the third from US$1,632 in the first. Some expect it to recover some ground later next year, although room for more downside is seen in the first quarter. Commerzbank analysts expected the price to rise to US$1,400 by the end of next year, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch tipped US$1,350. ANZ forecast a rebound to US$1,450 after dipping to US$1,150 in the first quarter. Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management, sees more downside near term. He said it would be difficult to absorb 300 to 500 tonnes of new supply - 7 to 11 per cent of annual demand - from gold sales related to exchange-traded funds, futures and options next year, even at current low prices. "Only a fall in the price of gold to marginal cash production costs of US$1,050 to US$1,150 would balance supply and demand," he wrote in a note. Expectations of a recovery in prices later next year by Commerzbank and ANZ are based on the assumption that the redemption of exchange-traded funds will ease as the Fed gives more guidance on its policies, coupled with resilient Asian demand. Commerzbank tipped the mainland's gold demand next year would roughly match this year's 1,000 tonnes, with the country overtaking India as the world's largest consumer due to high income and few investment alternatives. It also expected consumer demand to recover in India next year after a 23 per cent year-on-year decline in the third quarter of this year following three duty increases to curb imports and rein in the country's large trade deficit. Source:http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1392755/early-2014-best-time-buy-gold? | ||||||||||||||||||
| 30 December 2013 - 2014年金价将迎转机 Posted: 30 Dec 2013 02:09 AM PST From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/12/30113616415523.shtml 2013年是金价元气大伤的一年，但2014年金价有望在多重利好因素推动下王者归来，中国大妈成功解套也许就在不远的将来。 2013年金价下跌的主要动力是市场持续炒作美联储量化宽松政策退出的预期，而最近一次利率决议显示，美联储已着手缩减宽松政策。2014年美联储新主席耶伦上台，量化宽松政策将逐步退出，压制在黄金身上的最大桎梏解除，黄金有望逐渐摆脱颓势，迎来重生。 根据芝加哥商业交易所的数据，摩根大通的公司账户自11月来一直处于买进黄金的状态。在今年6月和7月，摩根大通就曾大举囤积黄金，随后的八九月金价上涨超过150美元，一度达到1433美元的高点，而此次摩根大通再次低位吸纳，不禁引人遐想。 美国经济复苏状态良好，美联储的量化宽松并没有带来通胀压力，这也是为何不直接退出量化宽松的原因之一，但这仅仅是暂时的。当前美国的通胀率维持在1.2%，但华尔街对2014年该数据的预测远高于当前，达到2.2%。若通胀压力显现，将为金价上涨提供契机。 尽管市场对于黄金开采成本没有标准说法，但1200美元已接近金价的开采成本是市场共识。如果价格继续下跌，意味着矿商无利可图，开采意愿降低，必将导致供应量下降，因此合理的金价应在1300美元以上，而该价格对于中国大妈而言，解套足矣。 2013年中国正式成为全球黄金消费及生产的双料冠军，甚至通过进口黄金来满足国内需求。相信2014年中国市场的投资需求和实物需求将有增无减，这会给金价带来一定的推动力。此外，印度的实物需求已经被压制了足足两年（印度政府持续提高黄金进口税），如果2014年需求爆发有可能助推金价。 美国债务问题将在明年重燃战火，经历过2013年的停摆，相信国会两党会尽量避免此事件再次发生，因此双方将会有所妥协，而上调债务上限对金价是中长期利好。 2012年下半年以来，造成全球宏观经济运行的三个系统性风险因素，美国经济衰退、欧债危机、中国经济硬着陆已全部消除，避险资金陆续撤离黄金市场，这是金价2013年下跌的宏观因素。全球最大的黄金ETF持仓水平回到2008年的水平，从近期机构持仓调整来看，机构已逐步改变思路，2014年资金有望重回贵金属市场。 日本政府和私人养老金规模达3.36万亿美元，由于日本首相安培晋三开始了激进的"无限宽松"措施，且承诺将该计划至少维持两年，实现2%的通胀目标，这使得日元购买力下降。为应对即将到来的通胀，日本养老基金有望在2014年增加黄金持有量。美国的量化宽松政策曾让金价走出波澜壮阔的牛市，全世界第三大经济体日本的量化宽松政策给金价带来的推动有望在2014年逐渐体现。 来源：中国证券报 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Aura Emas & Perak menjamin masa depan yang cerah - Fadillah Normi Binti Muhamad Posted: 29 Dec 2013 05:51 PM PST
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