26 December 2013 - 凯投宏观：金价2014年至少升至1400美元 |
- 26 December 2013 - 凯投宏观：金价2014年至少升至1400美元
- Menggarap Kekayaan Dengan Emas Dan Perak Public Gold - Che Rohana Ibrahim
- 26 December 2013 - Contrarian view: Why gold will recover in 2014
| 26 December 2013 - 凯投宏观：金价2014年至少升至1400美元 Posted: 26 Dec 2013 03:07 AM PST From:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-12-26/160919176.html 黄金今年已经下跌了近30%，这是30多年来黄金表现最为糟糕的一年，但著名研究机构凯投宏观（Capital Economics）称黄金明年会恢复上涨，至少会升至1400水平。 美联储(FED)上周四（12月19日）决定缩减刺激规模，黄金一度刷新六个月低点1185.10，接近6月份创造的年内低点1180水平。现在似乎没有看涨金价的理由，黄金面临不少阻力，光明面不多。但是一些分析师认为，明年黄金可能意外上涨。 最坏的情况已经过去 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）研究主管Julian Jessop表示，"机构一致预期，来自美国宽松货币政策的支持逐步弱化，金价在2014年将走低。向比之下，投资者情绪已经极为低落，我们坚定地认为明年金价会上涨。" Jessop认为，尽管2013年整体上是黄金糟糕的一年，但下半年的情况没有上半年那么糟，这意味着最坏的情况可能结束了。其实，金价在上半年由1675美元跌至1200下方，下半年黄金部分恢复，在跌至1200水平附近前，曾升至1400美元。Jessop指出，"我们预期黄金明年的表现会好很多。事实上，对黄金不利的事情都发生了，这些已经成为过去。"他进一步指出，明年欧元区的不稳定状况会重现，投资者再次转向避险资产，这将推高金价。而且，通货紧缩的担忧可能使欧洲脆弱的经济面临债务恶化，欧洲央行将进一步放松货币政策，这将提振金价。 美联储及其他主要央行仍在维持宽松政策 凯投宏观认为，美联储的购债还在继续，这是支撑黄金的另一因素。凯投宏观分析师认为，虽然美联储已经宣布小幅缩减刺激，但它还在继续购债。Jessop认为，"美国货币扩张政策即使不会贯穿2014年，也会持续大部分时间。美国的利率在相当长的时间内保持低位，全球主要央行也将保持宽松政策，日本央行甚至可能进一步宽松。" 新兴市场黄金需求强劲 新兴市场对黄金的需求持续强劲。从中国到迪拜，黄金需求热潮没有减退的迹象。Jessop表示，今年比特币价格快速上升，这加深了对泡沫的担忧，中国投资者黄金需求可能会进一步提高。印度黄金进口量因政府禁令大幅下滑，印度政府可能在明年取消限制，这成为金价反弹的一个催化剂。 Jessop最后表示，"我们发现，黄金2014年有很多反弹的理由。金价2013年大幅下跌，与包括股票在内的其他风险资产相比，现在颇具吸引力。我们重申，金价2014年至少将上探1400美元，可能走得更高。 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Menggarap Kekayaan Dengan Emas Dan Perak Public Gold - Che Rohana Ibrahim Posted: 25 Dec 2013 06:13 PM PST
Bimbingan Ekslusif - Che Rohana Ibrahim
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| 26 December 2013 - Contrarian view: Why gold will recover in 2014 Posted: 25 Dec 2013 04:57 PM PST From:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101294626 As gold closes in on what looks to be its worst annual performance in over three decades, research house Capital Economics argues the precious metal could come back into favor in 2014. The Federal Reserve's tapering announcement last week pushed gold prices close to their 2013 low of around $1,180 seen in late June, when the central bank first hinted at plans to trim its $85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program, prompting a 24 percent plunge. Gold has been left with few friends as a result, while a plethora of headwinds have made it difficult to find gold's bright side. Yet, some analysts think this is exactly why prices could surprise to the upside next year. "The consensus is that the price of gold will grind lower in 2014, at best, as the support from loose U.S. monetary policy gradually weakens," said Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at the firm. "In contrast, with investor sentiment already so heavily negative, our view is that the risks for the coming year are firmly skewed to the upside." (Read More: I wouldn't buy gold with my worst enemy's cash: Strategist) According to Jessop, although 2013 is broadly agreed to have been a terrible year for gold, the fact that the latter half of 2013 was less catastrophic for gold than the first half, suggests the worst of the slump may be over. Indeed, gold prices dived from $1,675 per ounce to less than $1,200 in the first six months of the year, while in the second half of the year gold staged a partial recovery, rising to $1,400 before dropping back to current levels around $1,198. In addition, a number of looming headwinds, which Capital Economics admitted it had previously thought would come to the fore this year, are now more likely to gain traction in 2014. "Admittedly, we had expected a much better performance. In the event, pretty much everything that could go wrong for gold, did go wrong," said Jessop. Jessop added that that next year, a re-emergence of euro zone instability, could work to boost gold prices, as investors turn to safe havens once again. Furthermore, worries over the threat of deflation could see higher gold prices. Although perceived by many as a negative for gold such worries could exacerbate the debt problems of weaker euro zone economies and force the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy further, boosting gold prices. (Read More: Will Asia's gold bugs come to the metal's rescue?) Another supporting factor for gold will be the Fed's continued asset purchase program, said Capital Economics. Although the central bank has announced a small taper, it will still be pumping large amounts of stimulus into the economy, which should be supportive for gold, the analysts pointed out. (Read More: Look out below if gold fails this technical test) "U.S. monetary expansion is still likely to continue through most, if not all, of 2014. U.S. interest rates are set to remain low for significantly longer. Other globally-important central banks will also keep policy loose, or even ease further, led by the Bank of Japan," he said. And the final supportive factor will be the recovery in gold demand from emerging economies, Jessop said. India, for example, where a government clampdown on gold imports has quashed demand, could see some relief of these restrictions in 2014, proving a catalyst for a rebound in gold prices. He added that the rapid spike in prices seen in the virtual currency bitcoin this year, which has prompted fears of a bubble, could also make gold more appealing to Chinese investors. "Overall we see plenty of scope for gold to bounce back in 2014," said Jessop. "Indeed, the poor performance in 2013 has left the precious metal looking attractive again compared to other assets, including equities." "We are happy to reiterate our view that the price of gold will revisit $1,400, at least, in 2014, and probably go higher," he added. — By CNBC's Katie Holliday |
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