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8 November 2013 - 张德熙：黄金处于牛市周期中段

Posted: 08 Nov 2013 03:31 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-11-08/159508108.html

金价由两年前高位每盎斯1920 美元跌至约1300 美元以下，调整幅度已达三成，然而；仍有不少投资者继续唱淡，认为黄金熊市已到。金价大好友、金银业贸易场理事长张德熙则仍然看好后市，认为黄金牛市周期未完。

　　说黄金牛市转了熊市，我不同意，现在金价只属调整，重新巩固，目前只是处于牛市周期中段。他表示，金价冲越1900 美元时，那水平很虚，最实的位是在1500 至1600 美元；按此计算，现价只不过下跌了约两成，还在牛市轨道上面。

　　张德熙相信，今浪只是技术性调整，每当跌至接近1200美元时，反弹力度很大，因此现阶段可视为牛市整固期，预料此整固期可能持续至今年底及明年初，估计要待明年初才出现突破；而这段期间，金价将继续在1300至1400美元徘徊。

　　其实1300美元水平相比于上世纪80年代楼价、债价、股价均属落后的，只追回约3倍，对比其他投资产品，同期升幅已达6、7倍。张德熙相信，早前部分资金可能由金市转往美国股市，或美国房地产，不排除重回金市，建议投资者每当金价跌至近1200美元，便要把握逐步吸纳的时机。

　　他预期，明年初金价将向上突破，估计明年全年至少可升至1600美元以上；若成功冲破1600美元，不排除有力挑战2000美元高位。

　　金价低位引发抢金潮

　　张德熙不改对金价的乐观看法，全球已意识到货币可以变，全球货币市场是可以出现问题。市场也意识到物业资产、债券、货币等都不足以提供保障，投资组合应加入贵金属产品，因此金价每当跌至低位时，便有人扑入市。再者，各央行如欧洲，尤其是中国，未来人民币国际化用什么支撑，其中一项是黄金，因此贵金属，尤其是黄金对货币支持将愈来愈强。

　　他认为，除散户、中国人民、亚洲人民对黄金有需求外，很多机构投资者亦不可撇除黄金作为投资组合的一部分，尤其是中央银行，目前黄金在储备占比非常小，相相信央行将继续吸纳黄金作为储备资产。

　　相信市场仍难忘今年4 月中的盲抢金场面，当时金价跌至1321美元低位引发抢金潮，内地客涌往金铺大手扫金。张德熙形容从事贵金属买卖多年，都没见过如此情景，相信是因为过去20 多年内地部分老百姓已变得富裕；第二是受内地房地产调控不稳定的影响；加上A股长期积弱，市民四出寻找其他投资工具，投资黄金是其中选择。当时入市的市民，到今日而言未必是错，目前金价仍维持在1300至1400美元左右上落。

　　牌价升至千万转手活跃

　　所谓物以罕为贵，金银业贸易场牌照价格多年来都是节节上升，金银业贸易场理事长张德熙表示，贸易场牌照具吸引力，在众多因素支持下，牌价曾升至1100万元以上，目前约在1000万元左右企稳。

　　他表示，牌价上升涉及多个原因，包括贸易场不再发出新牌照，全球金属市场畅旺，以及中国经济崛起；而多位前任理事长积极加强改革，提高贸易场透明度令生意额大增，以及早前金价攀升，均支持牌价升值。

　　金银业贸易场实施会员制度，现有171 间行员，由于不再发出新牌照，要成为行员，只能通过会籍转让方式。

　　对比上任理事长于2010 年2 月接受访问时透露，当时牌价约380 万元，即在三年半内已升值1.63倍。

　　张德熙表示，近几年转手情况活跃，每年约有8％至10％牌照转让，承接力也很强。

　　前两年进入市场的主要都是国内机构，现在则以本地机构为主。现时内地投资者占贸易场每日交易额约三成。

　　金银业贸易场于2011年推出人民币计价金条产品人民币公斤条。他指出，目前每日成交只有60亿元人民币，表现未及预期，金价下跌是原因之一，只要金价持续波动，相信成交可增加20％至30％。

　　金银占投资组合四成

　　金银业贸易场理事长张德熙从事黄金白银买卖30年，外界都想知道他的个人投资组合，所谓不熟不投资深深体现在张德熙个人身上。

　　他透露，在上世纪80年代，金银占他的投资组合比例达六成；90年代由于市场转趋淡静，金银投资比例已大减至15％；目前则采取中庸之道，金银占投资组合约三成，但早前金价大跌，已把金银的占比增至40％。

　　他表示，房地产占其投资组合颇大比例，达三成，包括物业及铺位，主要用作收租及自用。他认为，目前楼市要调整，政府积极推出措施稳定楼价是好事，因香港市民的各项支出中，租金占了一大部分，若楼价再持续上升会出现大问题，很多中小企业都因租金昂贵，不能租到铺位经营生意，香港经济是否只有大企业呢？

　　他认同政府要稳定楼价，认为双辣招不足以推冧楼市，一来政府并非想推冧楼市；另一方面，今天的香港地产市场稳定健康，因金管局早已限制银行借贷，与上一次八万五不同，当时出现很多负资产情况。他估计，今次楼市调整幅度约10％至20％。

　　至于股票，他直言兴趣不大。股票由董事会主导，而且上市公司又好似美元一样，可以不停印，好似发钞一样不停发。另外，最重要的是千多家上市公司，要拣哪只投资很麻烦。

　　投资黄金就不同，只看金价上落，好与不好已足够，较投资股票简单得多。而且投资股票有一大弊端，一旦遇上金融风暴，套现会有困难，黄金白银就不同，套现较容易。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-11-08/159508108.html

8 November 2013 - Gold could find a floor with China's economic reforms

Posted: 08 Nov 2013 03:15 AM PST

From:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101181781?

With China expected to unveil some of its biggest economic reforms for 35 years following a meeting of its ruling Communist Party, many analysts have speculated that the price of gold could benefit from this weekend's summit.

Spot gold sat at $1,309 an ounce Friday afternoon, after taking a hit Thursday after a better-than-expected U.S. growth figure. It's down over 21 percent so far this year and 31 percent lower for its peak in September 2011. The precious metal could be considered to be in a long-term bear market -- but analysts point to healthy Asian demand as reason for optimism.

"Meaningful reform will be painful and disruptive, and I suspect a lot of Chinese will seek the perceived safety and portability of gold," Patrick Chovanec, the managing director and chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management told CNBC.

(Read More: Five things you should know about China's Plenum)

"That will be particularly true if the bubble in China's property market pops. For the Chinese, buying and stockpiling empty properties serves much the same function as investing in gold, since they are both unproductive stores of value, so if real estate sees a major correction, many Chinese will turn to gold."

The Third Plenum of the Communist Party is expected to delve into issue of urbanization. Land ownership reforms are likely to be met with a surge in social housing but a property market tax is also being touted, hoping to reduce the chance of any housing bubbles.

"The expansion of the property tax may make people less willing to invest in property and gold would be an obvious alternative," Miranda Carr, head of China Research at North Square Blue Oak tod CNBC.

Adrian Ash, head of research at online gold exchange BullionVault told CNBC that if Beijing dares to prick house prices, gold sales going into the Chinese New Year could very well show how successful such moves are.

"Localized attempts to cool real estate prices certainly haven't hurt gold demand in the past," he said.

(Read more: China's big moment – here are the commodities set to benefit)

Traditionally used as an inflation hedge, the spot price for gold steadily rose during the economic crisis of the last five years. With extra liquidity from central banks - and subsequent fears of inflation - the price skyrocketed further.

This came to an end last year. Gold prices no longer reacted to policy announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and now with indications that this extra liquidity will now be "tapered" prices have fallen. For many analysts, the paper price - the cost of gold contracts - has now become decoupled from its actual physical price.

Martin Arnold, a senior analyst at ETF Securities is one of many gold-watchers that sees demand from Asia still holding up, with households across southeast Asia and India still seeing precious metals as the first choice as they start building discretionary savings for the first time.

"We expect the physical demand to remain robust as any uncertainty over the reform process from Chinese citizens (and a limited investment choice) is likely to be channeled back into gold, which is a traditional store of wealth in Asian countries," he told CNBC.

(Read more: As plenum looms, China's big challenge is a balancing act)

However, even if gold finds a friend in China in the coming months, then a much bigger reform could put downside pressure on it in the longer term. Announcements this weekend regarding the expansion and liberalization of China's capital markets will mean people will be able to diversify in the future.

"If there are any problems in China, people take money and invest it overseas rather than just putting it in gold," Carr told CNBC.

China's finance industry remains under-developed, according to BullionVault's Ash. Exchange controls also make gold, like real estate, a stand-out escape from cash deposit accounts paying less than inflation, he said.

"While no-one expects sudden freedoms to invest overseas, broader deregulation may, over time, give savers more options," he said.

Source:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101181781?