Posted: 21 Nov 2013 03:58 AM PST

From:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-gold-is-poised-for-a-comeback-2013-11-21?pagenumber=1

Gold has fallen off a cliff in the last year, going from highs of nearly $1,790 in October 2012 to about $1,280 currently — a drop of about 28%.

But judging by recent trends, it's possible that gold has found a floor and that now is a decent time to buy.

Admittedly, there are still some big challenges for the precious metal — especially in the last week or so when prices have been steadily rolling back again. But even if investors are a bit early as they turn to gold, fears of overbought domestic stocks may make even an uncertain bet in gold a preferable alternative to some right now.

There's risk no matter where you put your money right now. So here are some reasons the rewards from a buy into gold may outweigh those risks:

Demand for gold bars, coins and jewelry hit a record in the third quarter, according to the World Gold Council.

This is in large part driven by strong baseline demand from China and India — which collectively represent about 60% of gold demand, according to some calculations.

Furthermore, central bank demand continues to tick higher. Russia, for instance, now holds the second largest reserves in the world with over 400 million ounces of gold in its coffers.

It's fair to say that U.S. demand for gold hasn't been that great, thanks in large part to redemptions in gold-backed ETFs (more on this in a minute) but global demand is still strong and providing a floor on gold prices.

And as some goldbugs would ask, if folks around the world from China and Russia think it's a good idea to accumulate gold right now… shouldn't you?

An added boost: we are entering a time of seasonal strength for consumer gold purchases, across the Christmas holidays in the U.S. and Europe, the Lunar New Year in Asia, and then Valentine's Day again in the U.S. That should shore up demand even more.

Regarding Western demand, obviously gold appetite has been driven in recent years by gold-backed funds. When investors were buying these instruments like the SPDR Gold Trust GLD +0.27% , demand was high… and when they weren't, demand plummeted.

But the pace of outflows from gold funds was dramatically lower in the third quarter — down to 119 metric tons of the precious metal vs. roughly 400 tons in outflows in the second quarter.

And it's important to remember that while overall demand is down 21% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2012, gold prices peaked for the year at the end of the third quarter last year so it's unsurprising to see a greater than 20% drop in demand when prices themselves are down more than 20% in the last 12 months. Going forward, the year-over-year comparisons regarding demand will be in favor of the gold bugs since most of the selling from speculators has already been recorded.

For the record, I'm not convinced there is a difference between gold bars and "paper gold" funds. After all, if you own the PowerShares QQQ Trust QQQ +0.18% you do indeed own Apple AAPL +0.28% stock — not "paper" Apple shares, but actual stock through this ETF's constituent holdings.

I'm more concerned with trends, and a look at recent outflows clearly indicates that sellers are losing steam and the bottom may be in. And more importantly, that we will soon be back into inflow territory as we stop comparing gold investing with prices over $1,700 to the gold market now.

Recently, prospective Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has made no bones about the importance of keeping the pedal down on loose monetary policy under her watch. See "Easy money winners and losers."

That coupled, with Ben Bernanke backing off his hints of a "taper" a few months back, has helped tamp down gold's strength since summer.

But the fact remains that quantitative easing bond buying can't carry on forever. Or as Yellen said in her confirmation hearing, "I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy."

I read that not as a sign that the Fed wants to keep quantitative easing in place forever, but that the Fed very much wants to return to "normal" policy.

Keep in mind that gold rallied from a low of under $1,200 at the end of June to $1,400 in August on the expectation that tighter monetary policy was on the way.

A move like that may be likely again for gold prices in early 2014.

Now, the hyperinflation crowd that has beating the drum about rising prices hasn't had much luck with its arguments since the financial crisis. But there's a difference between a swing trade in gold and a belief that America is bound for the same fate as Zimbabwe — and the former strategy can pay off if you time it right.

It's fair to write off the bullish case for gold as stubbornness. After all, some traders have been convinced gold "has" to go higher in this environment… and have been painfully wrong across the last 12 to 18 months.

But not all gold bulls are the hysterical type. Hedge fund manager John Paulson, despite cutting his gold holdings in half, remains heavily invested in the precious metal. And investing icon George Soros revealed in his hedge fund's latest filing that he has moved back into gold funds recently — and is decidedly bearish on equities.

There are a host of emotional arguments about gold — that it is "real" money as opposed to fiat currency, that "paper gold" investors are manipulating the market — but the presence of real buyers with a lot of cash to deploy is a real case for gold.

This doesn't mean that gold can't move lower. Though the bunker crowd would like to believe otherwise, gold is a decidedly speculative commodity investment and volatility is the name of the game.

Furthermore, a lot of misinformation and spin exists out there — chief among them the idea that gold cannot fall below its "extraction cost," and that megaminers like Barrick Gold Corp. ABX +0.12% can simply go dark for a few months until prices stabilize. And in a sentiment-driven asset class, sometimes the narrative matters as much as hard data.

But now that gold has been stuck between about $1,400 and $1,260 since the end of August, it may be worth considering a bargain buy now that gold prices are once again at the bottom of that range.

Gold can always go lower, yes. But so can domestic equities, emerging market stocks or other asset classes.

The key question, then, is whether you want to keep chasing the S&P 500 SPX -0.36% or you want to start considering other assets.

Me, I'm starting to take a good look at gold.

Source:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-gold-is-poised-for-a-comeback-2013-11-21?pagenumber=1

21 November 2013 - 世界黄金市场跟着中国走

Posted: 21 Nov 2013 03:56 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-11-21/159892970.html

近日在灵宝举办的"2013中国黄金产业与市场发展峰会"上,专家们针对黄金价格、黄金产业发展现状及黄金首饰市场发展趋势等进行了分析和判断,并对黄金市场未来发展持乐观态度。

　　金价波动原因多多

　　世界黄金协会远东区董事郑良豪说:"黄金是个金融产品,有很多衍生的产品,每生产1盎司的黄金投到市场,就会衍生更大的力量。这就使得黄金储量虽少,全球黄金市场却非常活跃。"

　　近10年来,全球黄金市场一直处于持续发展阶段,行业的利润增长率和企业的平均销售利润都非常高。但是,2008年～2009年这段时间,由于受全球金融危机的影响,黄金行业的利润增长率有所下滑,但整体上依然呈现出良好的发展态势。

　　2012年10月,国际黄金价格出现转折,整个行业利润开始下滑。2013年4月12日,1盎司的黄金猛跌100多美元,跌幅之大出乎业内人士预料,是30多年来从没有出现过的情况。2013年6月21日,国际金价又出现大幅下滑。两次下跌,使黄金企业陷入恐慌,甚至失去了对金价走势的理性判断。虽然今年下半年以来,国际金价有小幅回调,但仍处于波动状态。

　　黄金价格到底由什么来决定呢?投资需求和央行黄金储备是支撑黄金价格的重要因素。

　　但除了购买首饰、个人投资和央行储备在影响黄金价格外,对冲基金对黄金价格的影响也不容忽视。

　　一批人进入黄金市场后大量购买黄金,从而把黄金价格推高,当赚取利益后又大量出售黄金。这就造成了黄金价格的大幅波动。

　　黄金矿企的战略选择

　　针对黄金矿山企业的战略选择,北京黄金经济发展研究中心专家委员会秘书长刘山恩表示,促进黄金消费量的增长是黄金矿业拉动金价上涨的有力手段,而黄金首饰市场是当今最大的黄金消费市场,因而黄金矿山企业关注、介入并积极参与黄金首饰市场的拓展和营销活动,乃至直接进入黄金首饰市场并推动其发展,不失为明智的选择。

　　黄金首饰加工和营销属于黄金产业链中的下游环节,加工环节可以使黄金增值3%～5%;营销流通环节大约可以增值10%左右,无论是3%～5%还是10%的增值,都提高了黄金矿业资本的盈利性,是其进入下游加工业的优势所在。

　　品牌是黄金矿山企业的重要无形资产,是黄金矿山企业拓展黄金首饰市场的重要途径。在市场经济环境中,社会资源是流动的,黄金矿业发展所需的资源要通过企业间的竞争获得,而品牌的创建可以增加企业的美誉度和可信度,成为其社会资源的吸引力,使品牌企业获得较多的竞争优势。

　　黄金首饰市场前景广阔

　　刘恩山认为,黄金作为重要的全球性战略资源和国际金融储备体系的基石,维护国家经济安全和金融安全的特殊战略价值令世人瞩目。

　　新中国成立64年来,其中53年为黄金管制期,严格限制黄金民用,主要集中用于国家的外汇储备,在上世纪60年代甚至取消了黄金首饰供应,金饰市场进入了一个发展空白期。

　　1982年,为抑制通货膨胀,加快货币回笼,我国恢复了黄金首饰供应,黄金市场得以起步发展。虽然发展很快,但起点很低,当年国家仅投放了0.7吨黄金,定点金首饰生产企业仅有10家;1990年,我国黄金首饰加工企业达96家,产值17亿元,实现销售收入14亿元,以当时的金价计算,黄金首饰消费量为20吨左右。

　　伴随着我国居民收入的逐步提高,其消费能力的提升使黄金首饰消费迅速达到一个新水平。上世纪90年代,我国黄金首饰需求量由数十吨上升到数百吨,这是一个井喷式的数量级增长。一时间,市场出现了金店比米店多的繁荣景象。但这是一个低质量的粗放型发展期,规模扩张并没有带动产品和企业运行质量的同步提高。1997年,我国黄金首饰消费量达到340吨的高峰以后,便转头向下进入一个发展的调整期。因黄金首饰市场优势被后起的铂金首饰取代,黄金首饰需求大幅下降,造成市场萎缩,企业开工不足,黄金首饰加工与销售企业纷纷倒闭转产,开始了一次重新洗牌的过程。

　　2002年10月30日,上海黄金交易所开业,黄金管制解除,我国黄金首饰业进入了全面市场化时期。优胜劣汰机制使黄金首饰市场进入一个发展提高期。

　　这一时期黄金首饰市场的基本特征:一是黄金首饰产品呈现多样化,产品质量有了很大提高,产品文化内涵日益丰富,重新赢得了消费者的青睐,黄金首饰再度成为市场的宠儿;二是市场规模进一步扩大,2008年黄金首饰消费量再创历史新高;2012年,黄金首饰消费量达502.75吨,比2011年增长10.09%　,并从2007年开始超过美国,成为仅次于印度的全球第二大黄金消费国;三是行业规模经营有了突破性发展,很多由手工业小作坊起步的黄金首饰生产加工企业,通过市场优胜劣汰,进行了重新调整和洗牌,使黄金资源迅速向优势企业集中,出现了以大型生产企业主导的黄金产业格局。

　　目前,我国是全球最大的黄金生产国和第二大黄金首饰消费国。一家美国企业的报告称,未来市场怎么走,要看中国市场怎么走;中国市场怎么走,要看中国矿业企业怎么走;中国矿业企业怎么走,全世界就会怎么走。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-11-21/159892970.html

20 November 2013 - Dressed to the Nines with Gold

Posted: 20 Nov 2013 04:50 PM PST

From:http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1384890864.php?

While paper gold is getting the cold shoulder in the West, the Love Trade buyers in the East are wrapping their arms around all the physical gold they can get their hands on.

In the third quarter, gold jewelry demand was at the highest level since 2010. Buying out of love in the East was significantly higher during the first nine months of the year compared to demand the same time last year, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). As the chart shows, buyers in Hong Kong and China went on a shopping spree for gold jewelry, as demand rose 40 percent and 35 percent, respectively, on a year-to-date basis in 2013 compared to the same period last year.

Another way to look at the strong demand coming from the East is to compare it to Western demand. As you can see below, so far in 2013, the East purchased 5 times more gold bars, coins and jewelry than the West. Together, Chindia purchased a whopping 1,500 tonnes in physical gold in nine months.

It's important to note that despite the government's efforts to stop Indians from buying gold, jewelry demand in India was still about 12 percent higher in the first nine months of 2013 compared to same time frame last year. The buying continued despite the fact that premiums were above the international price of gold.

Indian gold demand did weaken in the third quarter, as consumers were discouraged from loading up on the yellow metal through official channels. Residents faced a depreciation of the rupee, the tight restrictions, and confusing regulation, as gold bullion imports were tied to a fixed level of exports, says the WGC.

An emphasis should be placed on gold demand recorded by "official channels," as "gold entering the country unofficially through India's porous borders helped to meet pent-up demand," according to the WGC.

While traveling in India, I'm anticipating that I'll gain tacit knowledge on this topic. I'm eager to learn how locals think the government will contain its current account deficit that has weighed on the economy. It seems the slowdown in GDP per capita has created a short-term setback for gold, but when the economy picks up, there should be ready buyers lined up outside the gold shops.

Dressed to the Nines in Gold

What's interesting about gold demand today is that more and more investors around the world are buying higher-end, more expensive gold. Specifically in China, 24-karat gold jewelry and 'four nines' gold gained market share in the third quarter, says the WGC.

'Four nines' is named for the almost pure gold content of 99.99 percent; in comparison, 24-carat jewelry has a purity of 99.95 percent. According to the WGC, 'four nines' gold is "unique to China and has proved to be most popular with consumers in lower tier markets and rural areas, again reflecting the investment qualities offered by such jewelry," says the WGC.

I point this out because investors should take note of the emerging trend for luxury goods as a result of growing incomes in emerging markets around the world.

Take the buying of high-end products such as Chanel and Louis Vuitton bags, Rolex watches, and Chow Tai Fook jewelry in China, for example. From 2009 to 2012, the luxury-goods sector grew by 41 percent, due primarily to "lavish spending by rich Chinese and aggressive gift giving," according to research from CLSA. Looking over the next five years from 2013 though 2018, the middle class in China will increasingly be participating in this boom, as "income levels pass critical inflection points for spending on luxury items," says CLSA.

Jewelry is only one of many luxury items that has been seeing significant growth year after year. CLSA finds that from 2009 to 2012, jewelry sales increased 115 percent in Hong Kong and 172 percent in China.

So even as hearts beat fast for gold in the East, the yellow metal continued to lose its luster in the West. According to Bloomberg's precious metal mining team, gold ETF holdings have fallen nearly 30 percent since the all-time peak earlier this year. It's no surprise that the selling has been a big contributor to the decline in gold prices in 2013.

The good news is that gold ETF redemptions are no longer the main driver of gold prices. You can see below how the selling out of gold ETFs holdings has been slowing, but the metal has not followed the same path. Instead, gold has moved sideways over the past few months, with the price "supported at about $1,200 to $1,300 an ounce," says Bloomberg. We believe this shift provides an opportune time to buy, especially with the tremendous physical demand continuing to emanate from the East.

Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal asked several "gold enthusiasts" and me about our case for gold investing. Reporter Lindsay Gellman highlighted many of gold's important attributes, including inflation protection and diversification, and discussed one of the most important points I often make about gold: Make sure you allocate only 5 to 10 percent of your portfolio to gold and gold stocks, and have the discipline to take profits.

Source:http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1384890864.php?

21 November 2013 - 4 reasons gold is poised for a comeback

21 November 2013 - 4 reasons gold is poised for a comeback

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