4 September 2014 - Ukraine crisis could propel action on economy |
- 4 September 2014 - Ukraine crisis could propel action on economy
- 4 September 2014 - Gold rebounds on heightened tensions over Ukraine
- 4 September 2014 - September Can Be Gold's Best Month -- Will Seasonal Trends Lend Support Again?
- 4 September 2014 - 金道贵金属：乌俄未达成停火协议给银价带来支撑
| 4 September 2014 - Ukraine crisis could propel action on economy Posted: 04 Sep 2014 03:33 AM PDT By James Saft New tensions in Ukraine, which has accused Russia of further incursions, may serve to light a fire under efforts to bring looser monetary and fiscal policies to the euro zone. While Russia has denied the allegations, Nato has said that well over 1,000 Russian troops were now inside Ukraine in what would represent a large increase. This makes more likely some interruption of Russian energy shipments this winter and will exacerbate the economic effects of sanctions both sides are imposing on one another. The net result is clearly not good for the Eurozone economy, which is already struggling with outbreaks of recession in Italy, dangerously low inflation and high rates of unemployment. "In August, economic sentiment in the Eurozone already dropped by the biggest margin since the heyday of the euro crisis in mid-2012. A further escalation would pose a serious risk of a renewed recession in the still-fragile economy," Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, wrote in a note to clients. "The likelihood that governments and the ECB would then react with stimulus programmes, including full-scale quantitative easing, is rising." Even before these developments, the Eurozone economy was in need of fiscal and monetary help, a case laid out by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last Friday in a speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He called for more stimulative government spending, though without being overly specific about by whom or under what circumstances. Draghi also acknowledged that market prices were demonstrating how very low inflation was quite possibly undermining future inflation expectations. That, rightly, has led markets to expect more from the ECB by way of extraordinary monetary policy, both in the form of buying up asset-backed bonds and possibly an eventual move to buy government bonds on secondary markets. Bond markets certainly are pricing in the risks of slow or negative growth, dangerously low inflation and economic fallout from Russia/Ukraine. The Eonia rate, a euro overnight index gauge of borrowing costs, fell to negative territory for the first time ever last Thursday, at minus 0.004 per cent. Meanwhile German two-year government bunds have a negative 0.02 per cent yield and 10-year German yields are at a record low 0.87 per cent. The problem, which the Russia/Ukraine situation may help to loosen, is that both main avenues for relief — monetary and fiscal policy — face substantial roadblocks. The asset-backed bond market which the ECB is exploring supporting is relatively small, and there are both political and legal issues which may complicate large-scale outright government bond QE. Those issues won't go away quickly, but it would not be at all surprising if the political atmosphere for ECB movement suddenly became a lot more supportive. The ECB meets to set policy next week, and while bond buying isn't likely, a cut in the refi and deposit rates is a possibility. I would also look to Draghi next week at the post-decision press conference to take note of the potential damage from Russia tensions and to make noises about being mindful of this in making policy. At the very least that will drive the euro lower, which is of some help. Similarly to QE, expansionary fiscal spending will be far from easy. The Stability and Growth Pact presents obstacles, as does the deteriorating budget situation in recessionary Italy and elsewhere. But remember, Russia/Ukraine is an unexpected and uncontrollable outside shock of the kind to which sensible governments make some economic response. It will be far easier today for Germany to do something stimulative to protect its good farmers and savers from suffering due to Russian aggression than it would have been three months ago, when it could have been portrayed as a sop to the supposedly feckless governments of southern Europe. All of this is a bit of a nonsense, in that 95 per cent of the issue has nothing to do with Russia. But, as is so often the case, nonsense often gets things done. To see the potential for movement on fiscal issues look at Germany's new-found willingness to countenance a loosening of French austerity. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble went out of his way to say he agreed with French President Francois Hollande that public and private investment is needed to stimulate growth. Europe's institutional arrangements are just as confining and difficult as they were a month ago, but Russia/Ukraine has probably made cutting the knot a bit more likely. |
| 4 September 2014 - Gold rebounds on heightened tensions over Ukraine Posted: 04 Sep 2014 03:27 AM PDT NEW YORK/LONDON: Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, as lingering tensions over Ukraine and a dollar drop prompted bargain hunting and short-covering after bullion prices fell to an earlier 2-1/2 month low. The yellow metal was under pressure earlier after Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday a deal to end fighting in eastern Ukraine could be reached this week. However, Ukraine's prime minister later rejected Putin's proposals, saying they were an attempt to deceive the West on the eve of a NATO summit. Muted response from physical buyers despite Tuesday's 1.7 per cent drop and heightened geopolitical tensions suggested gold's upside could be limited, analysts said. "We believe the lack of physical demand makes gold more vulnerable to the downside should U.S. employment data surprise on the upside this Friday," said Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS. Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $1,268.36 an ounce by 12:14 PM EDT (1614 GMT), having earlier hit $1,261.19, its lowest since June 17. U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery were up $4.40 an ounce at $1,269.40. Gains in gold on Wednesday were capped by more encouraging U.S. economic news as rising new orders for factory goods and strong automobile sales offered further signs of strength in the manufacturing sector. Physical demand in Asia was muted on Wednesday, despite the previous session's price drop, traders said, which would usually be expected to tempt price-sensitive buyers. Bullion trader and refiner MKS said in a note that light physical buying was evident around $1,265, but the potential for a further sell-off later in the week may keep buyers on the sidelines. Investment interest in gold has been soft of late. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund and a measure of investor sentiment, said its holdings fell 1.8 tonnes to 793.20 tonnes on Tuesday. Among other metals, palladium was down 0.8 per cent at $871.50 an ounce. The stand-off between major producer Russia and Ukraine helped push prices to their highest since early 2002 earlier this week at $910 an ounce. Silver edged up 0.2 per cent to $19.13 an ounce, and platinum climbed 0.1 per cent to $1,406.59 an ounce. |
| 4 September 2014 - September Can Be Gold's Best Month -- Will Seasonal Trends Lend Support Again? Posted: 04 Sep 2014 03:25 AM PDT (Kitco News) – September can be a shiny month for gold, as historically this month is when the yellow metal performs the strongest. There are several fundamental reasons behind the strong seasonal up pattern gold exhibits in September. Jewelry manufacturers often buy gold to prepare for coming holiday seasons, including India's Diwali in October, Christmas in December and Chinese New Year in late January/early February. Equities often slump at this time of year, which can cause a little bit of safe-haven buying, analysts said. Because of the influence of jewelry demand on gold, "the market runs up in September, into early October, and then it tends to correct back into mid-late October, and goes higher into the end of the year. That's a typical year for gold," said Jerry Toepke, editor, Moore Research. Toepke said for instance, for 14 out of 15 years, December Comex gold futures have closed higher on Sept. 30 versus than where it closed on Sept. 15, with the average rise of $8.50 an ounce. December gold futures have also closed higher on Oct. 8 than Sept. 15 in 12 out of 15 years. History may be on gold's side, but market watchers said current trends are not. Gold prices are up about 7% on the year, but the metal squeaked by August with only a 0.6% gain and it started the month of September on a down note. When combining the recent price weakness and lack of physical demand this year, gold may not hew to its traditional seasonal upswing, analysts said. Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group, closely follows the seasonal trends. He said gold should have started bottoming in mid-August if the seasonal trend of higher prices was to develop as it usually does. What's weighed on gold this year is the U.S. dollar strength, he said. Additionally, gold has not been able to build any sustainable gains on geopolitical concerns, whether it's fighting in the Middle East or in Russia/Ukraine, he said, nor are there any signs of inflation. Instead, money is chasing a rising stock market, Epstein said. John Person, president, NationalFutures.com, agreed the dollar strength is weighing on gold, as are the technical chart patterns. "Technicals don't favor the seasonal outlook. As far as the daily and weekly charts show, they don't support a strong seasonal uptrend this year, which means when we turn into October for the traditional seasonal downturn (losses) could be a bit greater," Person said. The analysts said this week is critical if gold is going to move into its seasonal uptrend. "We still have time for the seasonal to work. It's always a tough one, to figure out when a seasonal is not working. Is it late, or is it going to be a true counter-seasonal," Toepke asked rhetorically. Person said even if gold is going to rally on a seasonal trend, the move will likely be muted at best, with the metal's upside likely kept to the $1,320s. If gold can break out, the gains are still likely to be limited to the $1,340s, he added. "We're anticipating the Fed (Federal Reserve) to move eventually on rates. The outlook for the EU economy (isn't good), more people are pouring money in equities and people will be less exposed to gold right now… The way the market has been trending for the last year, with a tight, narrow range and light volume, little market participation, and with the background of potential rate hikes, who wants to be in gold right now," Person also questioned rhetorically. Epstein said unless something can turn gold around, this may end up being a year where gold sinks into the fourth quarter and ends 2014 in the red. Between 1975 and 2013, gold ended lower on the year 11 times, he said, and if Monday's break lasts through the week, "it's certainly going to destroy the bull ideas that this market is going to run (higher). What's going to cause it to run? That's what I keep looking for. I think gold is going into a bear seasonal." Person said if someone still wants to take a chance on seasonal factors working, he suggested a few short-term trades. "I'm actually long in some GLD (SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund) call spreads for October, looking for the seasonality to work a bit in September…. Buying in-the-money calls spreads and taking a small move up will give you a better risk-reward if you wanted to play the gold strategy. Gold miners are another option, such as the GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF), Newmont may hold a little better than gold prices, which can fluctuate in the futures pretty widely," he said. |
| 4 September 2014 - 金道贵金属：乌俄未达成停火协议给银价带来支撑 Posted: 04 Sep 2014 03:22 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-09-04/168182536.html 【白银市场回顾】 上个交易日现货白银价格在低位窄幅震荡，暂时企稳跌势，最终在现货白银日线图中以小阴线收盘。隔夜美国公布的经济数据表现不佳，提振市场多头情绪，支撑白银价格在低位企稳。 截止至收盘，现货白银价格走势报19.14美元/盎司，最高报19.25美元/盎司，最低报19.08美元/盎司，较上个交易日下跌0.02美元。 【现货白银行情基本面分析】 昨日乌克兰方面宣布，乌克兰总统波罗申科已与普京就在乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区永久停火达成协议。该消息一度令市场避险情绪回落，给银价构成打压。但此后乌克兰总统波罗申科表示，乌克兰撤回此前发表的与俄罗斯达成"停火协议"的声明。且克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯总统普京与乌克兰总统波罗申科并未达成所谓的停火协议。由此再度推升市场避险情绪，给白银价格带来支撑。 另外昨日美国公布的经济数据表现不佳，这给美指上行带来压力，利好银价企稳反弹。数据显示，美国8月ISM纽约联储企业活动指数57.1，不及前值68.1；美国7月工厂订单月率增长10.5% ，不及预期值增长11.0%。 此外在昨日欧元区公布的7月零售销售月率下跌0.4%，预期下跌0.3%，前值增长0.3%。近期欧洲公布的经济数据普遍不佳，这推升投资者对欧洲经济的担忧。在日内欧洲央行将召开议息会议，投资者可注意关注该央行会否释放宽松政策，以刺激欧洲经济。如果欧央行释放宽松政策，则市场流动性增强，将利好白银价格反弹。 【日关注焦点】 北京时间14:00，德国将公布的7月季调后制造业订单月率，市场影响中等； 北京时间19:45，欧洲央行将公布的利率决定，市场影响较高； 北京时间20:15，美国将公布的8月ADP就业人数，市场影响较高； 北京时间20:30，美国将公布的第二季度非农生产力终值，市场影响中等； 北京时间20:30，美国将公布的7月贸易帐，市场影响较高，市场影响较高； 北京时间20:30，美国将公布的8月30日当周初请失业金人数，市场影响较高； 北京时间21:45，美国将公布的8月Markit服务业PMI终值，市场影响较高； 北京时间22:00，美国将公布的8月ISM非制造业PMI，市场影响中等； 【白银走势技术面分析】 上个交易日现货白银价格在低位调整，在现货白银日线图中以小阴线收盘。Boll轨延续下行，白银价格调整在boll下轨线附近。均线方面，5日均线向下运行，银价运行在5日均线下方。指标方面，MACD指标水平运行，空头能量柱基本持稳；stoch指标双线在低位粘合。 综合来看，虽隔夜现货白银价格在低位有所调整，但市场整体维持下行趋势。此时仍建议投资者维持空头思路，逢高沽空入市。 现货白银日线图： |
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