Gold price | Gold Silver Ratio is not Confirming Lower Prices in Gold and Silver

Gold Silver Ratio is not Confirming Lower Prices in Gold and Silver
Gold Model Projects Prices From 1971 to 2021 | Gold Silver Worlds
Gold's Price Plunge, U.S. Dollar and CCI :: The Market Oracle ...
The case for a September gold price surge | MINING.com
Silver and Gold Prices Have Both Reached Their Line in the Sand
Gold Price Seasonality Chart Points to Strong Gains Sept through ...

Gold Silver Ratio is not Confirming Lower Prices in Gold and Silver

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 04:36 PM PDT

3-Sep-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,268.90	5.20	0.41%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.11	0.04	0.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.407	0.144	0.22%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	-0.0000	-0.22%
Platinum Price	1,414.00	-16.30	-1.14%
Palladium Price	875.35	-26.05	-2.89%
S&P 500	2,000.72	-1.56	-0.08%
Dow	17,078.28	10.22	0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s	278.22	-0.98	-0.35%
Dow in GOLD oz	13.46	-0.05	-0.35%
Dow in SILVER oz	893.78	-1.20	-0.13%
US Dollar Index	82.87	-0.14	-0.17%

3 Day Gold Price Chart

30 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

30 Day Silver Price Chart

Silver and GOLD PRICES bounced today, but without making any meaningful progress. Gold clambered up $5.20 (0.4%) today to end Comex at $1,268.90 Silver rose 3.7 cents (0.2%) to 1910.8c.

All that can be said is, Well, they haven't busted down old support levels yet and sunk toward the earth's core.

The GOLD PRICE rose away from the lower line of the downtrending range, but not far enough to rise back above the uptrend line from the December low. I read that yesterday saw extra high volume at odd times, which leads to the conclusion the Nice Government Men or their egg-sucking dog lackeys were slamming gold again. But they are vultures, they prey on the sick, so if gold were more robust right here it could shake off that attack. We will see whether gold does or not. If not, it might once again visit $1,180.

The SILVER PRICE, at 1910.8 cents, doesn't excite anyone but those who recognize what a bargain it is here. Today's tiny rise changed nothing. Silver is still sliding down that downtrend line from the August 2013 high. Oddly enough, the MACD is trying to turn up.

1 Year Gold/Silver Ratio

Here is one other hint that silver and gold prices are not about to waterfall: the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has stayed roughly flat. Today it closed beneath the 20 DMA, that is, crossed the tripwire of a downturn. All its momentum indicators are also pointing down. Yet normally when silver and gold plunge, silver plunges faster, taking the ratio higher. So the ratio is not confirming lower prices in gold and silver.

So even though silver and gold look peaked, other indicators show some life.

Stocks were mixed. Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 dropped a leetle, S&P500 lost 1.56 (0.08%) to 2,000.72. Dow gained a nothing 10.72 (0.06%) to 17,078.28.

In fact, the S&P500 posted the first half of a key reversal today by reaching into new high ground but closing lower than yesterday. As always, that needs confirming a second day by a lower close.

Dow in gold backed off 0.24% to 13.44 oz (G$277.83 gold dollars). Dow in silver rose a tiny 0.04% to 890.00 oz (S$1,150.71 silver dollars, knocking at the June high, 892.99 oz (S$1,154.57).

US Dollar index fell 14 basis points (0.17%) to 82.87, giving up most of yesterday's gains. It remains overbought so does today make yesterday a mere fluke, a spike without follow-through? If I could answer that question with certainty I'd be sippin' wine on the Riviera. I'm going to guess that that overbought burden will bring it down, however.

Yen rose today 0.28% to 95.42. Chart pattern is a cascading fall with a gap, and island after the gap, and another gap down. That generally paints a completed pattern and reversal, so the yen is set up for a rally, at least to work off some of that overboughtness. Euro rose 0.13% to $1.3151 but still inspires no confidence. Like the yen, the overbought euro is inline for at least a little rally.

Ten year Treasury Note yield today tried to climb toward its 50 DMA but was slapped back. At hits high it reached 2.457%, but ended the day at 2.41%, down 0.37% from yesterday's close. All the same, it is trying to climb.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Model Projects Prices From 1971 to 2021 | Gold Silver Worlds

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 10:40 AM PDT

Gold persistently rallied from 2001 to August 2011. Since then it has fallen rather hard, down nearly 40% at one point, but it currently looks ready to rally for the balance of this decade.

WHY SHOULD WE EXPECT THAT GOLD WILL RALLY?

The answer, in my opinion, can be found in my gold pricing model that has accurately replicated AVERAGE gold prices after the noise of politics, news, high frequency trading, and day to day "management" have been removed by smoothing.

WHY DO WE NEED A GOLD PRICING MODEL?

Most of us do not know if a current market price is "low," about right, or "high." A few of the difficulties are:

Major "Too-Big-To-Fail" banks are promoting paper, not gold, so they consistently issue bearish reports on the prospects for gold.

Rising gold prices are viewed by many as the "canary in the coal mine" regarding loss of faith in the currency and as an early warning sign of consumer price inflation. Hence the "powers that be" want gold prices suppressed.

Many well-known gold experts disagree about future prices – so much that some can't even agree as to whether gold prices will be higher or lower in three years.

It has been well documented that a massive quantity of gold has been shipped east to China, Russia, and India from the west in the past decade. It probably benefits both Western and Asian countries, in the short term, to encourage lower gold prices. This phase of selling western gold and shipping it east may be nearly finished.

Much of the official gold may have been "leased" or sold and many vaults, such as the Bank of England, NY Federal Reserve, and Fort Knox may be partially or nearly empty. With no transparency regarding gold in official vaults it is difficult to say conclusively what gold remains. But acknowledgement that central bank gold is "missing" could drive prices much higher.

More radical individuals believe gold prices can and will "go to the moon" any day. Similarly, others believe $250 per ounce is coming soon. Who and what should we believe regarding rational and defensible projections for the price of gold?

My empirical model (as detailed in my new book) accurately calculated all major trends in smoothed gold prices since 1971 based on several macro-economic variables. This model is, I believe, a good tool for projecting future prices.

MODEL RESULTS

The calculated Equilibrium Gold Price (EGP) had a statistical correlation of 0.98 with the smoothed gold price from 1971 – 2013.
The model was both simple and robust. It worked effectively, on average, during gold bull and bear markets, stock bull and bear markets, blow-off tops and crashes, volatile oil prices, Y2K and 9-11, QE, Operation Twist, ZIRP, various hot and cold wars, occasional peace, gold leasing, gold manipulations, and high frequency trading distortions in many markets.
In August of 2011 gold was priced about 30% ABOVE the EGP.
In contrast, the December of 2013 gold price was about 26% BELOW the EGP.

GRAPH NOTES

Smoothed gold prices (smoothed with two moving averages) are shown in a "gold" color. This is a long-term valuation model, not a trading model.
Calculated equilibrium gold prices (EGP) are shown in green.
The long-term trend from 1971 – 1981 was up, from 1981 – 2001 the trend was down, and from 2001 to 2012 the trend was up. (Actual gold market high price was August 2011.)
Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971, removed any semblance of gold backing for the dollar, and thereby enabled the creation of significantly more dollars into circulation. The various measures of "money" supply, official national debt, Dow Index, price of gold, many commodities, and most other prices increased exponentially between 1971 and 2013.

FUTURE PRICES FOR GOLD per the EGP Model

Assumptions:

Macro-economic variables continue to increase and decrease as they have for the past 42 years.
The U.S. economy continues along its typical path with government expenses growing more rapidly than revenues, as they have for decades. National debt rises inevitably.
Congress continues its multi-decade habit of borrowing and spending, talking about change, and changing little. The Fed supports the stock and bond markets and continues "liquidity injections" as it deems appropriate to benefit major banks and the financial and political elite.
Monetary, political, and fiscal policies will NOT be materially different from what they have been during the past 42 years.
The U.S. will NOT be subjected to global nuclear war, Weimar hyperinflation, or an economic collapse, while we will continue to be subjected to the same Keynesian economic nonsense that has created many of our current "challenges."

Given the above assumptions, a reasonable projection for the EGP (a "fair" price for gold) in 2017 is $2,400 – $2,900. Remembering that market prices can spike significantly above or crash below the EGP for many months, we are likely to see a spike high above $3,500 in 2016-2018. Extraordinary events such as a global war, dollar melt-down, or an economic crash and the resultant massive increase in QE from global central banks could push gold prices higher and sooner.

My book ("Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 – 2021") describes my gold price projection model in detail, and discusses many other topics such as QE, counter-party risk, gold cycles, price projections from other writers, price bubbles, ratios to the Dow and silver, and when to sell gold. My book is now available at my retail site and at Amazon in paperback and eBook.

Other Reading:

Gold Silver Worlds Jim Rickards: Target Gold Price
Casey Research 23 Reasons to Be Bullish on Gold
Eric Sprott Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left?

Gary Christenson | NEW: Check Gary Christenson's brand new book site at GEChristenson.com

Gold's Price Plunge, U.S. Dollar and CCI :: The Market Oracle ...

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 12:35 PM PDT

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Sep 03, 2014 - 09:35 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are now justified from the risk/reward perspective. However, day-traders might consider a small speculative long position in silver.

The precious metals sector moved sharply lower yesterday – in tune with its medium-term trend. The decline was to a large extent connected with the breakout in the USD Index. It seems that it is the U.S. dollar that will determine the short-term moves in PMs and miners in the coming days and in today's alert we focus on this relationship. The CCI Index seems to be in a particularly interesting position as well and this is something that gold & silver traders should be aware of.

Let's start with the USD Index chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

The USD Index moved higher once again – this time it managed to move above the Sep. 2013 high. The RSI indicator suggests an extremely overbought condition and the cyclical turning point is upon us. The combination of the above suggests that a corrective downswing has become very likely.

The breakout indeed materialized yesterday, but it has not been confirmed yet (only 1 daily close above the Sep. 2013 high and we would like to see 3 of them before saying that the move is confirmed), which means that this makes the situation only a little more bullish. The combination of these factors seems more important than the unconfirmed breakout, so it seems quite likely that we will see a move lower shortly.

In yesterday's Forex Trading Alert we commented on the possible reversal in the currency markets this week:

Please note that we will have a decision or at least more information regarding the European QE on Thursday - perhaps this will be the day when currencies reverse their direction for some time. We will keep our eyes open and report to you accordingly.

It could be the case that even if the decision that will be made on Thursday is bullish for the USD Index (big QE in Europe), we could see a "sell rumor but buy the fact" type of reaction. In other words, given the significantly overbought situation in the USD Index and the proximity of the turning point, we could see a reversal no matter what the officials say on Thursday.

The unconfirmed breakout in the USD Index translated into an unconfirmed breakdown in gold.

The decline in gold took place on huge volume which is a bearish factor, but, just as it was the case with the USD Index, until we see a confirmation of the breakdown, we shouldn't get too excited. Yes, in our opinion the medium-term trend remains down, so the surprises will be to the downside, but at this time it's not that certain that the decline has already begun. The breakdown (below the previous lows and the rising medium-term support line) is not confirmed at this time and gold hasn't moved below the declining support line (the upper of them, based on the daily closing prices).

In other words, if the USD Index corrects, then we will be likely to see gold move higher in the short term. If, given the correction, gold stays above the rising support/resistance line, we will have a good possibility that the next big downswing will already be underway and it will probably be a great time to enter a short position.

While we're at discussing the gold-USD link, we were asked if there [was] a chance that we could see a month long rally in gold with the likelihood of a falling dollar as we [were] at the cyclical turning point. In our opinion such possibility exists, but yesterday's big-volume decline made it more probable that we will see a rather limited upswing. If gold soars more than $100 or so and mining stocks also rally, then it could change the medium-term picture to bullish. At this time, however, the volume suggests something opposite – we have been seeing higher volume with lower prices and low volume with higher prices. We will be monitoring the markets for signs of significant strength and report to you if we see them. For now – we think the medium-term remains bearish.

Commenting yesterday's SLV chart we wrote that "we [could] expect the volatility to increase in the coming days based on silver's cyclical turning point" and we didn't have to wait long for this to become reality. However, the move lower might not be the thing that was likely to take place based on the turning point – since silver is still before it, we could actually see a sharp upswing based on it. In fact, it still seems quite likely given the situation in the USD Index. Also, please note that the RSI indicator is once again oversold, which has previously meant that we were at a local bottom or a very close to one.

Our yesterday's comments remain up-to-date:

The most interesting thing about the turning points in the USD and silver is that the one in silver is several days behind the one in the dollar. This paints a picture in which the USD Index declines first, causing silver and the rest of the precious metals sector to rally, perhaps sharply, but then silver's turning point "kicks in" and metals and miners reverse and start declining. Let's keep in mind that silver tends to outperform in the final part of a given upswing, so we could see a jump in the price of the white metal right before a downturn. Naturally, there are no guarantees that the above scenario will be realized, but it seems quite likely in our view.

What can we infer from the mining stocks chart?

Not much. The decline hasn't taken mining stocks below the declining support line, which means that there has been no breakdown. Therefore, the situation hasn't really changed based on yesterday's decline. We could still see some short-term strength, based mainly on the buy signal from the Stochastic Indicator. Similarly, to what we've seen in gold, the volume on which miners rallied last week was small, suggesting that this rally was just a temporary phenomenon.

Before summarizing, we would like to reply to another question that we have just received and we would like to provide you with one additional chart.

We were asked about our best approximation of the HUI Index if Dow was at 17,000 and gold at $1,100. Of course, there are no guarantees, but our best bet at this time is 150. The 17,000 assumption about the Dow doesn't change much, as the HUI to gold ratio managed to slide in the past 2 years despite the rally in the former (despite short-term upswings, that is). It seems quite likely to us that when the precious metals sector finally bottoms, the HUI to gold ratio will move to its 2000 and 2009 lows – close to the 0.13 level. Multiplying this by 1,100 leaves us with 143 and 150 is the strong support that is closest to this level.

The CCI Index (proxy for the commodity sector) has just moved to the major, long-term support and stopped the decline at this level. That's the upper part of our target area for this index – the one that we featured weeks ago. The commodity sector is likely to at least take a breather before declining once again, and this is a short-term bullish sign for gold as well.

Summing up, while the medium-term has been down, the short-term outlook for the precious metals sector seems rather favorable based on the extremely overbought situation in the USD Index. The latter is likely to correct sooner rather than later based i.a. on its cyclical turning point and it's quite likely that it will cause a move higher in PMs and miners.

To summarize:

Trading capital (our opinion): No positions Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position

You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As always, we'll keep our subscribers updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send them our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional ones whenever appropriate. If you'd like to receive them, please subscribe today.

Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com
Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment - SunshineProfits.DE

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About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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The case for a September gold price surge | MINING.com

Posted: 01 Sep 2014 12:50 PM PDT

July, August and September are typically gold's strongest performing months.

But gold dropped 2.7% in July, and barely managed a gain in August.

Gold futures inched higher on Monday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia, after fighting intensified over the weekend.

Gold for December delivery rose slightly to $1,288 on Monday and historically holding gold going into September reaps investors a more than 3% return.

In this video Bloomberg's John Dawson explains that the September move up comes as buying from Asia – particularly due to upcoming festivals in India – increases.

That pushes up premiums paid for gold. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums improved to above $7 an ounce last week, but that's still a long way away from the $37 surcharge when gold was trading around $1,200 last year.

While gold traders in India are now asking for $13 an ounce over the London price, premiums inside the country rose to a whopping $170 an ounce a year ago at the height of the country's gold import restrictions and ahead of the all-important festival and wedding season.

Not everyone is convinced that this year the gold price will follow the same pattern in September.

A recent note from investment bank analysts at UBS argues September 2014 may turn out to be a particularly weak period for the gold price:

"Barring a move to $1200, physical demand from China is likely to remain quite subdued in the months ahead. This means that gold is lacking physical support from its biggest physical market, implying that the seasonality trade for September – gold's best performing month historically – is unlikely to follow its long-term trend."

Image by Edson Walker

Silver and Gold Prices Have Both Reached Their Line in the Sand

Posted: 02 Sep 2014 06:10 PM PDT

2-Sep-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,263.70	-22.10	-1.72%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.07	-0.33	-1.69%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.263	-0.022	-0.03%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	0.0000	0.03%
Platinum Price	1,410.40	-16.30	-1.14%
Palladium Price	882.60	-26.05	-2.87%
S&P 500	2,002.28	-1.09	-0.05%
Dow	17,067.56	-30.89	-0.18%
Dow in GOLD $s	279.19	4.30	1.57%
Dow in GOLD oz	13.51	0.21	1.57%
Dow in SILVER oz	894.95	13.49	1.53%
US Dollar Index	83.01	0.29	0.35%

3 Day Gold Price Chart

30 Day Gold Price Chart

3 Day Silver Price Chart

30 Day Silver Price Chart

Oh, my! The GOLD PRICE lost 22.10 (1.72%) today to end at $1,263.70 while silver lost 32.7 cents (1.69%) to 1907.10.

Whether these are one-day spikes or not we shall see tomorrow. Gold's close takes it under the uptrend line from the December low, but on the other hand merely to the lower line of the current trading channel.

For a long time I've had marked on my gold chart a potential upside down head and shoulders formation. If there's anything to that, gold today is completing the bottom of the right shoulder. Bottom of the left came at $1,268.40.

Course, all that's pie in the sky if gold keeps falling tomorrow. You can see what I'm looking at here:

The SILVER PRICE closed down on that downtrend line from the August 2013 low. If it breaks that line, it's 1860c. See chart:

Silver and GOLD PRICES have both reached their line in the sand. If they fall much further, gravity will take hold and pull gold toward $1,200 and silver toward 1860c.

Markets hit me over the head with a club today. Might as well take the licking.

Silver and gold both plunged while the US dollar index, gainsaying my expectation, rose. Let's see how this mess sorts out.

US dollar index has been highly overbought off and on since July, and persistently so for the last two weeks, yet it rose 29 basis points today (0.34%) to 83.01. That might be the last thrust to this leg up, but that's not too likely. Overbought can always get overboughter, and the dollar index faces little resistance between 83.50 and 84.15. One suspects that fear is driving European money into the dollar, now that the Europeans have joined Obama in sticking their tongues out at Russia.

The Euro barely moved today, down 0.02% to $1.3133 but still looks sick as a dog that's been eating bad meat. It was the Yen that fell over the cliff. Yen has been contained since last February by 96 cents/Y100 on the range bottom, and 99-ish on the top. Today it closed at 95.16, down 0.96%, leaving behind a gap from 96.08 to 95.3, and falling to its lowest price since 2008. And as the US dollar is overbought, so is the yen oversold.

I keep fussing with that overbought oversold business for this reason: those conditions can last a while, but when they move to seldom seen levels, they are powerfully arguing for a change of direction, even if only temporary to swing the price pendulum back to the other side.

Ten year treasury note yield today rose 3.24% to 2.419%, and closed above its 20 day moving average. It make a big gap up, which probably means that investors are buying in anticipation of the Fed raising interest rates soon. 10 year yield needs to close over 2.500% to change its trend, however.

Stocks dipped today, back to support. Dow's low today touched the uptrend line from the March 2009 low. That's the big one, the line that defines the trend.

Dow lost 30.89 (0.18%) to 17,067.56. S&P peeled off a tiny 1.09 (0.05%) to wind up at 2,002.28. Volume rose with today's drops. I continue to await the inevitable plunge, and I am learning patience.

Dow in metals reached the hour of decision today. Dow in gold closed up 1.51% at 13.48 oz (G$278.66). That is dead on the downtrend line from the December 2013 high at 13.80 oz (G$285.27 gold dollars). This catches your eye more firmly when you note that all the trading this year, all of it, has been bounded in an even sided triangle between that downtrend line I just mentioned and the uptrend line from the June 2013 low. See the chart:

Clearly the even-sided triangle foretells a break, but sayeth naught of which direction. Unless the Dow in Gold means to extend this rally and climb above the old high, it must turn down at once.

Dow in silver closed today up 1.51% at 889.63 oz (S$1,150.23 silver dollars). That's mighty close to a double top with the June high at 892.99 oz (S$1,154.57). What makes this troublesome to parse is this: Dow in silver spent 12 months tracing out a rising wedge, a pattern that presages a downward resolution. In June it resolved downward indeed, out of the wedge, but now has climbed again almost to that last peak -- to make a double top? Lo, how overbought it is! See the chart:

Several months ago I worked out a maximum target for the Dow in Silver at 912 ounces (S$1,179.15) That would be about where the top line of that wedge now stands.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Price Seasonality Chart Points to Strong Gains Sept through ...

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 03:55 AM PDT

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Sep 03, 2014 - 10:55 AM GMT

By: Jason_Hamlin

The month of September has historically been the strongest for precious metals. Since the start of the current bull market, gold has averaged a gain of 2.6% during the month of September. This is typically followed by a smaller gain of 0.8% in October and then a few more strong months in November, January and February. Taken together, we are exiting the weakest seasonal period for gold (Spring-Summer) and entering into the strongest seasonal period (Fall-Winter).

The following chart has been updated to include data through September of 2014:

Of course, seasonality is just an average and not a guarantee that past performance will repeat. However, physical buying typically increases during the back half of the year as India's festival and wedding seasons kick in. Chinese purchases also tend to increase toward year-end. Traders take cues from these seasonal numbers and create additional buying momentum.

I believe it is wise to hold physical precious metals in your possession, especially as the geopolitical instability spikes and de-dollarization accelerates. This may be an opportune time to buy before gold and silver move into their strongest seasonal months. Despite the lack of action over the past few years, gold's fundamentals remain strong and signal plenty of upside ahead.

In addition to holding physical bullion in your possession, you may also want to consider holding a few of the best-in-breed junior mining stocks. The greatest gains during uplegs can be found in this very volatile sector which is currently undervalued. In fact, mining stocks are offering some of the best entry points (relative to the metals) that we have seen during this entire gold bull market.

Follow our views on the gold market and track which stocks we hold in our portfolio by becoming a premium member.

By Jason Hamlin

http://www.goldstockbull.com/

Jason Hamlin is the founder of Gold Stock Bull and publishes a monthly contrarian newsletter that contains in-depth research into the markets with a focus on finding undervalued gold and silver mining companies. The Premium Membership includes the newsletter, real-time access to the model portfolio and email trade alerts whenever Jason is buying or selling. You can try it for just $35/month by clicking here.

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.