Posted: 13 Aug 2014 03:57 PM PDT

13-Aug-14	Price	Change	% Change
Gold Price, $/oz	1,312.80	4.00	0.31%
Silver Price, $/oz	19.81	-0.06	-0.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio	66.320	0.402	0.61%
Silver/Gold Ratio	0.0151	-0.0001	-0.61%
Platinum Price	1,470.90	-2.30	-0.16%
Palladium Price	882.10	3.60	0.41%
S&P 500	1,946.72	12.97	0.67%
Dow	16,651.80	91.26	0.55%
Dow in GOLD $s	262.01	0.64	0.24%
Dow in GOLD oz	12.67	0.03	0.24%
Dow in SILVER oz	840.58	7.13	0.86%
US Dollar Index	81.68	0.11	0.13%

The GOLD PRICE climbed $4.00 (0.3%) to $1,312.80 but silver fell 6 cents to 1981c. Silver's relative weakness is beginning to bite.

Overnight the gold price traded flat until midnight, then started to climb. It fended off a seller's raid about 10:00 a.m., then rose to $1,316.40 before it closed at $1,312.80.

This places gold above that downtrend line from October 2012, but after a series of descending highs. Today was the second time in five days at that line that the gold price closed above the line.

The GOLD PRICE needs to master lateral resistance about $1,325, it seems, before it will advance. Silver is acting as a drag.

The SILVER PRICE tried twice to pierce 2008c, but failed and fell back, lower than yesterday, to 1970c. So far that 1975-ish support is holding, but the longer silver loiters here, the greater the chance it will fall through. First assignment for silver is to throw a leg over the 200 DMA at 2021c and commence running. While gold's indicators all point up, silver's point down.

Gold's course today makes it appear ready to climb higher, while silver's is weak and lazy. These contradictions don't last long.

Markets are sawing back and forth without any progress It's August. Europeans are off vacationing and nobody else much is watching.

The halfway point (50% correction) of the Dow's dive from the July high to the August low is 16,743. That would be a convenient place to turn down again.

Today the Dow rose 91.26 (0.55%) to 16,651.80. The S&P500 outdid the Dow, rising 12.97 (0.67%) to 1,946.72. 'Twill be interesting to observe how they behave at their 20 day moving averages (19,768 and 1,953). One more downleg is being prepared even now.

Dow in gold jigged up 0.24% today, but remains below its 200 DMA. Ended the day at 12.67 oz (G$261.91 gold dollars), still acting like a market looking for a trap door to fall through.

Dow in silver reflects silver's relative weakness right now. It rose 0.93% to 839.09 oz (S$1,084.88 silver dollars), above its 50 DMA at 825.98 oz (S$1,067.93)

US dollar index closed today at the top of its recent range, 81.68, up eleven basis points. It has remained in this range, oscillating around 81.50 resistance, for two weeks. It needs to close above 81.80 to break out of this range, or fall through 81.30 below. Odds favor higher prices.

Yen fell 0.17%to 97.63, a bad slide. Lower prices in the near future. Euro was flat today, down 0.02% at $1.3364. But that close doesn't reveal its attempt to climb up to the 20 DMA, and failure. Not great.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Price Marks Crash Anniversary by Rising to April '13 Low as ...

Posted: 11 Apr 2014 06:41 AM PDT

GOLD PRICES slipped again from near 3-week highs above $1324 per ounce in London trade Friday lunchtime, as world stock markets fell after yesterday's slump in US tech stocks.

Dropping $6 per ounce after spiking from $1314 as the US Dollar rose on the currency market, gold prices were heading for their 12th weekly gain in 15 so far in 2014.

Twelve months ago tomorrow, the gold began a 15% crash which took it through what analysts called strong support at $1535, bottoming on Monday 15 April at $1322.

"The gold price is continuing to find support from the unexpectedly dovish Fed minutes from mid-week," says Germany's Commerzbank, citing earlier Dollar weakness.

Sterling and Euro gold prices rose Friday, but held flat from last week's finish vs. the Dollar price's 1.2% gain.

"Precious metals prices have proven resilient," says London market-maker Deutsche Bank, again pointing to Dollar weakness and Wednesday's release of US Federal Reserve meeting notes.

The Fed "indicated unease with overly hawkish interpretations" of last month's statements on raising rates in 2015, says Deutsche, warning that a Dollar rally is likely this quarter.

"Without the dovish [Fed] minutes," says Swiss bullion bank UBS, "we expect that gold would have traded lower. But gold has been wrong-footing many this week."

The Chinese Yuan meantime fell to a 1-week low today, while the Shanghai stock market bucked the global trend to end 3.7% higher from last Friday.

Tracking US biotech stocks drop, however, "the average fall for Asian internet stocks in the past month has now topped 20%," reports the Financial Times.

Despite the falling Yuan, the Shanghai gold price – typically at a premium to world benchmarks – reduced its discount to $2.50 per ounce below London quotes by the close of Chinese trade.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange said Friday it will launch "a rudimentary version" of the gold lending contracts used in London, heart of the world's physical gold market.

Gold borrowing costs rose again in London again Friday, as lower GOFO rates reduced the incentive offered to would-be borrowers, who must pay storage and lose cash interest for the period of a gold loan.

Two-month GOFO today went negative for the first time since late February, meaning that lenders are asking for payment on top of the interest they earn during a gold-cash swap.

One-month GOFO has now been negative, albeit at 0.05% annualized at the most, for 38 of 72 gold trading days in London so far in 2014.

That suggests what analysts have called some "tightness" in London's wholesale market, contrasted with the plentiful supply in Shanghai suggested by its discount to world prices.

Gold Price "Bullish", Unmoved by Strongest US Jobs Data Since ...

Posted: 02 Jul 2014 06:00 AM PDT

GOLD PRICE gains of $5 per ounce were erased Wednesday lunchtime in London, as new US data showed a surprise jump in June employment and the Dollar rose on the currency market.

Silver followed the gold price, spiking lower only to recover the tight range of the morning session around $21.05 per ounce.

The private-sector ADP Payrolls report said the US added 281,000 jobs last month, the strongest rise since late 2012 and well ahead of Wall Street economists' consensus of 200,000.

Peaking at $1329 just before the ADP jobs Report, the gold price eased back to $1324 – a two-day low some 0.6% higher for the week so far.

The Euro currency fell harder, buoying the gold price for Eurozone investors above €970 per ounce, a 3-month high when first reached in late June.

Sterling also dropped back vs. the Dollar after the ADP jobs data – widely seen signalling the US government's official Non-Farm Payrolls report due Thursday – but held near new 6-year highs after strong UK house price and manufacturing figures.

The gold price for UK investors held above £772 per ounce, a level first reached in May 2010.

"It's the first year in several," says Bloomberg, quoting Moody's Analytics director Marisa Di Natale, "where we haven't had some kind of manufactured fiscal showdown in Washington, which weighs on business confidence and consumer confidence."

"If you have a desire," the newswire quotes one small-company boss, "and can write your name and will go out and work hard, you can get a job here today."

Ukraine's armed forces and National Guard meantime continued what Kiev's parliamentary speaker called their "offensive on terrorists and criminals" in the country's pro-Russian separatist east.

Crude oil prices slipped however, reaching 3-week lows on the Brent contract as a key Libyan port was re-opened.

ISIS extremists in Iraq today ordered other Sunni groups to swear allegiance, meaning "our revolution has been hijacked" according to one militia leader.

"The recent strength in the gold price," one Asian dealing desk said Wednesday morning, "continues to put downward pressure on premiums in India and China."

Shanghai gold prices again ended the day at a $1.40 discount to London quotes.

"Trending and momentum indicators are bullish," says the technical analysis team at Swiss investment and bullion bank UBS, looking at gold price charts.

Silver prices, in contrast, have "failed to push higher with gold," says Australia's ANZ Bank in its daily commodities note, "struggling to overcome $21.20 despite numerous tests."

Gold price | Silver and Gold Prices: The Gold Price Climbed $4.00 to $1,312.80

Gold price | Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: The <b>Gold Price</b> Climbed $4.00 to $1,312.80

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