Buying Gold | <b>Buying Gold</b> "A Bet Against the US Economy" | Gold News | News2Gold |
- <b>Buying Gold</b> "A Bet Against the US Economy" | Gold News
- China's <b>Gold Buying</b> "Make or Break" for 2014 Prices | <b>Gold</b> News
- Japan Sees Net <b>Gold Buying</b> for 1st Year in 10 | <b>Gold</b> News
- <b>Buying gold</b> and silver now makes more sense than chasing stocks <b>...</b>
- Exactly When You Should Consider <b>Buying Gold</b> Again | Bonner <b>...</b>
- People's Bank of China "<b>Buying Gold</b>, Supports Prices" | Gold News
| <b>Buying Gold</b> "A Bet Against the US Economy" | Gold News Posted: 15 Jan 2014 02:47 AM PST Buying gold losing urgency say analysts, as Goldman Sachs tips short sale... BUYING GOLD is essentially a bet against the US economy continuing to recover, says analysis from the head of commodities research at investment bank Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Currie. "Our view really is driven by the expectation of the US economy reaching escape velocity," he told CNBC on Monday, again recommending investors sell instead of buying gold. Because "when you think about a short [sale, profiting from lower prices] on gold, it's essentially just a bet on a substantial recovery in the US economy." Concurring with Currie's view at Goldman Sachs, HSBC Private Bank also said Tuesday that the US economic recovery is set to continue, weakening the case for buying gold in 2014. "Many of gold's supports gradually dissipated throughout [2013]," notes HSBC, pointing to more tapering of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program in 2014. "Indeed, growth and monetary policy divergences are like to materialize between the US and the rest of the world, supporting gradual US Dollar strength." While a higher Dollar would be an "added obstacle to higher gold prices," says HSBC, it would also make gold more expensive for consumer in emerging economies, potentially denting demand. French investment and bullion bank Natixis, in its latest 2014 outlook for commodities, says that "as the US economy gradually returns to normal, so US interest rates will continue to rise," reducing appetite for buying gold by worsening the loss of potential income from cash or fixed-income investments. Asked whether a US recovery won't stoke inflation, spurring a return to buying gold by investors. "We're still below trend and growing," says Goldman Sachs' Jeffrey Currie. "Once we get above trend, [only] then you start to get some scarcity in the economy, then you can create inflationary pressures."  |
| China's <b>Gold Buying</b> "Make or Break" for 2014 Prices | <b>Gold</b> News Posted: 13 Jan 2014 07:00 AM PST Buying gold at the same pace as 2013, China would drive 2014 prices higher says analyst... GOLD BUYING by private households and investors in China will prove "make or break" for prices in 2014, says the head of Commerzbank's commodity team. "Should Chinese demand continue to be around 100 tonnes per month [as in 2013]," said Eugen Weinberg to Bloomberg on Monday, "then we're likely to see a strong recovery in gold prices. "But should the Chinese buyers become fed up with the negative performance of gold...then we're likely to see further slide in the gold price." Only 12 years since buying gold for investment and trading was first deregulated by the Communist authorities in Beijing, annual demand in China overtook India as the world's No.1 for the first time in 2013. Of these various factors now playing on the gold price, "We believe strong emerging market demand has the most longevity," says a note from London market-making bullion bank HSBC. With the Chinese New Year starting on January 31st, "China's merchants may be well stocked ahead of the lunar New Year," HSBC's analysts said Monday, "and so near term demand from that source may ease. But this would likely be temporary." However, and also pointing to the risks of continued sales by Western fund managers using ETF trust funds, "Gold is unlikely to attract safe-haven bids," says fellow London market-maker Barclays. "Instead, the focus will shift to demand and physical demand from the East in particular. But when demand sets the price for gold, the trend tends to be lower or sideways." In tonnage terms, global demand for buying gold as jewelry peaked at the end of the 1990s, when prices hit the bottom of a 20-year bear market. China's gold imports in 2013 may have topped 1,000 tonnes, accounting for all of the ETF gold sold by trust funds in the West and more. But while "the surge in physical [gold buying] in the East is a bullish development," agrees ScotiaBank in its latest monthly report for clients, "it may be that the shift in gold from West to East continues to be observed, but ignored. "Until institutional investors get worried about the financial system again, gold may take a back seat." Against that, "What we haven't had before," counters Weinberg at Commerzbank, is this level of demand for buying gold amongst Chinese investors and consumers. Now forecasting a possible 12% rise in world prices in 2014, and noting that Hong Kong "[is] the trading hub" for China's flows, "This is likely to be make or break for this year," he concludes. |
| Japan Sees Net <b>Gold Buying</b> for 1st Year in 10 | <b>Gold</b> News Posted: 23 Jan 2014 07:44 AM PST Gold buying through No.1 retailer exceeds consumer sales, grows by two-thirds... TANAKA KIKINZOKU, which operates the largest gold retail chain in Japan, said this week that gold buying through its stores in 2013 exceeded customer selling for the first time since 2004. Gold trading on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange also rose last year, again bucking a long trend of falling volumes. Tocom gold trading peaked by weight in 2003, shortly after the price for buying gold in Japanese Yen turned higher from multi-decade lows. The Yen price of gold bullion has since trebled, hitting 30-year highs in the winter of 2012-2013. Japan's consumer price inflation rose to 1.2% by the end of last year, having been flat or falling for almost two decades. Economists point to the so-called Abenomics policies of new prime minister Shinzo Abe, plus aggressive quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan. It plans to double Japan's base-money supply by 2015, killing deflation and driving annual inflation up to 2.0%. "Investors have become concerned as Abenomics weakens the Yen," says brokerage Fujitomi's analyst Kazuhiko Saito, commenting to Bloomberg on the Tanaka data. Record Yen gold prices at the start of 2013 dented demand to buy gold, and "encouraged further dishoarding", says the new Gold Survey 2013 Update from metals consultancy GFMS, part of the Thomson Reuters group. But the nation's gold buying "returned to net demand, the first time since 2008," as prices then fell in line with global quotes amid the sharp sell-off by Western fund managers. Furthermore, says GFMS, Japan's private gold buying "may have also [been] encouraged" in late 2013 by the coming sales-tax hike, set for April 2014 and taking the levy on new purchases from 5% to 8% by value. Overall, Japanese gold jewelry demand rose 8% last year from 2012. So-called "scrap" sales in contrast, meaning old or unwanted items sold back by households to raise cash, plus metal reclaimed from waste electronics, fell by almost one-eighth. |
| <b>Buying gold</b> and silver now makes more sense than chasing stocks <b>...</b> Posted: 09 Aug 2014 12:28 AM PDT Posted on 09 August 2014 with no comments from readers Gold and silver have outperformed stocks so far this year and have a lot further to go as equities hit a wall of fast deteriorating geopolitics and weakening economies as we progress into the autumn. Do you buy high and sell low? No. So why would you buy stocks close to all-time highs when you can still pick up gold and silver at a respective discount of 30 and 60 per cent off their 2011 highs? Bargain prices Would you rather not buy low and then be able to sell high later? It's a fairly simple logic but then markets are no more than scales weighing supply against demand. What will encourage demand for gold and silver to pick up again? Real assets like precious metals are a safe haven in times of trouble with no third party involved or the central banks. They are money that central banks cannot print, and what do you think they will do if financial markets tumble? Why should they fall from current near record heights? Apart from gravitational forces you have something called economic fundamentals, i.e. oil prices. We saw what happened when oil hit $147 a barrel in 2008. It brought the whole house of cards down. Overvalued financial markets and associated assets are in the same position again today. Don't believe the nonsense about the Islamic State now growing like a cancer inside Iraq. It is not benign. It's malignant and Baghdad is the next target and then the southern oil fields are a doozy. Where we go to then is anybody's guess. The Islamic State could attack Kuwait like Saddam Hussein as another easy target, or it could become embroiled in a second Iraq-Iran War. Eventually the US and its allies will have to put boots back on the ground. Trade war Meanwhile, the trade war developing over the Ukraine and a possible imminent invasion by Russian 'peacekeepers' is also bad for energy prices and global business. It's destabilizing and reminiscent of the breakdown of global trade in the 1930s before the Second World War. Global financial markets have become excessively complacent after such a long run up without a correction. Things have been going so well that they can't possibly fail can they? Anybody who knows anything about market cycles must recognize such over-confidence as pride coming before a fall. Buying gold and silver today makes sense because by prices will soar as this geopolitical conflagration plays out and prices are cheap now. Equities will go in the other direction. |
| Exactly When You Should Consider <b>Buying Gold</b> Again | Bonner <b>...</b> Posted: 11 Feb 2014 07:41 AM PST A quick note after a long drive… US stocks were more or less steady on Monday. Gold was up $11… apparently on its way back to $1,300 an ounce. (See more below from Chris on where gold is going and when to buy…) We spent yesterday driving from Baltimore down to Aiken. So we didn't have much time to think about what was going on in the markets. Aiken is supposed to be warmer than Baltimore. Today, it's about 10 degrees warmer. But it's hardly balmy. And the cleaning lady at the hotel warned us: "I know you came down here to get away from the snow. But I've got bad news for you. It's going to snow here on Wednesday. Not much. But it will be exciting. We're not really very used to snow. Should be pretty, though." The cold has been a subject of conversation all up and down the East Coast of the USA. On Sunday, we gave our advice to a young couple who had just bought an old house in rural Maryland. "You need to build a big fireplace. Maryland has plenty of trees. Firewood is no problem. So, you put a big fireplace in your kitchen. Then you don't really care how cold the rest of the house is. You just make a roaring fire in the kitchen. Everybody congregates in front of the fire. And then spring comes." More tomorrow… Regards, Bill Market Insight: Gold Shines in 2014 As Wall Street veteran and former Merrill Lynch technical analyst Bob Farrell put it in his "10 Market Rules to Remember":
This is certainly the case with gold, which had up until recently been left for dead by the mainstream. As you can see from the chart below, gold has managed to climb above resistance at its 50-day moving average (blue line). And its 200-day moving average (red line), at $1,313 an ounce, is now in sight. As we've been telling members of Bill's family wealth advisory, Bonner & Partners Family Office, during the recent correction gold has been moving from "weak hands" to "strong hands." In other words, often-leveraged speculators and hedge funds in the West – "weak hands" – have been selling out of their mainly paper gold bets. And individual buyers in the East – "strong hands" – have been gobbling up mainly physical gold at nice discounts to recent peaks. Recent reports, for example, reveal that gold bullion buying by individual Chinese investors rose 40% in 2013… probably pushing China ahead of India as the largest consumer of gold. If you're looking to build a position in gold, there looks like significant price support at about $1,200 an ounce. And if gold breaks above it's 200-day moving average… and that break is sustained… it would be a good time to buy. The consensus is that the secular bull market in gold is over. Something else is likely to happen… |
| People's Bank of China "<b>Buying Gold</b>, Supports Prices" | Gold News Posted: 07 Nov 2013 05:15 AM PST China's central bank seen as a big gold buyer in 2013 by leading analyst... GOLD BUYING by the People's Bank of China may have totaled 300 tonnes so far in 2013, helping "support prices" during the worst drop in 30 years according to a leading precious metals analyst. "We've seen tremendous amounts of gold go into Hong Kong for onward shipment to mainland China," says Philip Klapwijk, formerly of Thomson Reuters GFMS, in his first public report as CEO of new consultancy Precious Metals Insights. Domestic mine output, already the world's No.1 since 2007, has also risen this year. But gold buying data from China's jewelry, industrial and investment sector "do not seem to account fully for this surge in supply," says Klapwijk. To explain the gap, "anecdotal information" should be used to supplement official and reported data, says Klapwijk. Because not all aspects of the global or Chinese gold markets are transparent for precise analysis. And what Klapwijk calls "a growing contribution" to China's demand would seem to come thanks to the People's Bank. "China needs to import a substantial amount of gold to meet its soaring local demand," the report says. But reviewing the available data, supply to meet China's demand for buying gold "comfortably exceeded" 1,000 tonnes in the first half of 2013 alone, Precious Metals Insights goes on. The discrepancy "clearly implies that the Chinese authorities have been acquiring gold," says Klapwijk, with a chart showing perhaps 300 tonnes of gold buying by the central bank in the first half of 2013, when gold prices slumped. The People's Bank of China last updated the world on its state gold bullion reserves in 2009, reporting a sharp rise to 1054 tonnes. Other analysts have recently pointed to the gap between China's reported private demand and supply (meaning imports and mine output), again concluding the "suspicion" that the People's Bank was buying gold, as Joyce Liu at Phillip Futures in Singapore put it to the Wall Street Journal last month. "Undoubtedly," says Philip Klapwijk, quoted separately by Bloomberg News in Singapore on Thursday, the fact that the central bank has been buying gold in 2013 "has provided support for prices, which could have been weaker" without it. |
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