14 August 2014 - The Daily Market Report: Gold May Rise as Confidence in Central Banks Wanes |
- 14 August 2014 - The Daily Market Report: Gold May Rise as Confidence in Central Banks Wanes
- 14 August 2014 - Gold import rules likely to stay until next year: WGC
- 14 August 2014 - Gold beats oil on safe haven demand
- 14 August 2014 - 专家：货币充裕的世界中 需要黄金作为对冲品
| 14 August 2014 - The Daily Market Report: Gold May Rise as Confidence in Central Banks Wanes Posted: 14 Aug 2014 03:05 AM PDT From:http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2014/08/13/the-daily-market-report-421/ 13-Aug (USAGOLD) — Gold remains range bound above $1300. The yellow metal firmed on today's U.S. retail sales miss, but was unable to sustain these intraday gains. U.S. retail sales were flat in July, below expectations of +0.3%, vs +0.2% in June; ex-auto +0.1%, on expectations of +0.4%. This was the third consecutive monthly miss and the lowest since January. In our consumer driven economy, retail sales are a critical component for growth. We've already seen a number of negative revisions to both Q2 and Q3 GDP expectations this morning. But low and behold, stocks are up on the bad news amid heightened expectations that the Fed will push back that first rate hike deeper into 2015. Yields on the 10-year note fell back toward 2.40%. On Monday, I posted a Bloomberg piece by Barry Ritholtz entitled: Celebrating Greenspan's Legacy of Failure. The premise of the article was based on Greenspan's seemingly dichotomous belief in free markets and his incessant interventions in those markets, which according to Ritholtz led to disastrous results. I pondered whether the tenures of Greenspan's successors would be judged similarly. After all, Ben Bernanke continued down the über-accommodative trail blazed by Greenspan, marked by bubbles and busts. Janet Yellen is on the same path as well, and new bubbles may indeed be inflating. Perhaps the absence of the 'free market' hypocrisy will cast a slightly more favorable light… But why not extend that examination to Messrs Trichet and Draghi in Europe? With the ECB's refi rate hovering just above the zero-bound at a record low 0.15% and other accommodative policies in place, the European economy remains in shambles and perhaps on the verge of another recession. The ECB may still engage in full-on QE, but what do they hope to gain, beyond perhaps a forestalling of the inevitable? The Japanese have been at this longer than anyone. Can the 'legacy of failure' be extended to BoJ governors past and present: Messrs Mieno, Matsushita, Hayami, Fukui, Shirakawa and Kuroda? Today Japan reported a 6.8% decline in annualized GDP for Q2. It wasn't quite as bad as the -7.0% median forecast, but was far worse than most were expecting when the new consumption tax took affect back in April. As we noted in yesterday's DMR the efficacy of Abenomics is already being challenged on a number of fronts. Nonetheless, the likely response of the BoJ to mounting growth risks will be more of the same policies that have failed Japan for decades. The same can be said with regard to growth risks in Europe and the U.S. Look for the respective central banks to respond with ever-more policy easing. And let's not forget the 'legacy of failure' at numerous central banks during the various emerging market crises and sovereign defaults over the last twenty-years or so: Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, just to name a handful. The notion that the central banks can keep all the plates spinning by providing ever-larger doses of monetary accommodations is a false hope. Once the plates start toppling the whole charade could come to an abrupt and disastrous end as confidence in those central banks evaporates. At that point, you're going to want some gold in your portfolio. Source:http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2014/08/13/the-daily-market-report-421/ |
| 14 August 2014 - Gold import rules likely to stay until next year: WGC Posted: 14 Aug 2014 02:46 AM PDT Indian gold demand in 2014 will fall below last year's record levels as import restrictions are expected to remain in place, despite an improvement in demand in the second half of the year, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Demand in 2014 will be 850-950 tonnes, the industry body said, down 50 tonnes from its earlier forecast. China's demand forecast was also lowered to 900-1,000 tonnes from an earlier 1,000-1,100 tonnes. The forecasts put consumption in India and China below record purchases of 974.8 tonnes and 1,120.1 tonnes respectively last year, when gold prices slumped 28 percent after a 12-year bull run. Global gold demand fell 16 percent in the second quarter, according to WGC's quarterly report released on Thursday. Consumers had brought forward their purchases after the sharp price drop last year, eating into 2014 demand. Second-quarter demand in India fell 39 percent, while in top buyer China demand halved, the report said. In India, tough rules on imports - which have hurt demand - could remain in place for the rest of the year, as uncertainties over oil prices and U.S. monetary policy could deter the government from any easing, said Somasundaram PR, head of the WGC's operations in India. Struggling with a high trade deficit, India last year raised its gold import duty to a record 10 percent and made it mandatory to export a fifth of all bullion imports. Gold is India's second-biggest expense on the import bill after oil. "What's the point in relaxing everything and be faced with a higher interest rate scenario and higher oil prices," said Somasundaram. "Given all that I think (the rules) might extend into the first quarter of next year." Market expectations for a duty cut had climbed after the election of Narendra Modi, who leads the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party, as India's new prime minister. Modi had earlier indicated his willingness to remove the curbs, saying any action on gold should take into account the interests of the public and traders, not just economics and policy. But the import duty was left unchanged in the new government's first budget in July. With the restrictions expected to stay, smuggling will remain rampant, with the WGC predicting that illegal gold supplies will be about 200 tonnes for the year. In 2013, the WGC had estimated 150-200 tonnes of unofficial supplies. The lure of big profits from avoiding duty has lead to rampant smuggling. On the demand front, Somasundaram said Indian consumption could climb to 500 tonnes in the second half, about 27 percent higher than the first half. "We are entering Diwali with a slightly better mindset and the consumers are also clear that a price drop or an import duty cut won't happen in a hurry," he said, referring to the Hindu festival when it is considered auspicious to buy gold. "So the fact that the uncertainty is gone and normal purchasing behaviour will return, we expect the second half will be better than the first half," he said. The first half of 2013, particularly the second quarter, was an unusual period for gold purchases globally as a sharp plunge in prices set off a rush to buy gold jewellery, bars and coins. |
| 14 August 2014 - Gold beats oil on safe haven demand Posted: 14 Aug 2014 02:43 AM PDT From:http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-beats-oil-on-safe-haven-demand-20140814-103wgf.html Gold traded at its highest price relative to crude oil since March amid global economic concerns. An ounce of bullion bought as much as 13.58 barrels of oil on Wednesday, the highest in more than four months. US retail sales in July were the weakest in six months, while Chinese industrial output unexpectedly slowed, separate US economic reports showed. The precious metal has jumped 9.3 per cent this year as escalating violence in the Middle East and Ukraine, coupled with signs of slowing economic growth, boosted the appeal of haven assets. West Texas Intermediate slid 0.8 per cent. The US is pumping the most oil in 27 years as muted expansion in China signals less fuel demand. "It's clear that people are comfortable with the global oil-supply situation, despite all the violence in the oil-rich regions, and probably demand will not surge as there are growth concerns," said Tom Power, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago. "Gold, on the other hand, is advancing because of the global turmoil." Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3 per cent to settle at $US1,314.50 an ounce in afternoon trading on the Comex. On August 8, the price reached $US1,324.30, the highest for a most-active contract since July 18. Trading was 25 per cent below the 100-day average for this time, data compiled by Bloomberg show. WTI futures for September delivery rose 0.2 per cent to $US97.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price dropped as much as 0.6 per cent to $US96.75. Silver futures for September delivery dropped 0.3 per cent to close at $US19.845 an ounce on the Comex. On the Nymex, palladium futures for September delivery rose 0.4 per cent to $US881.60 an ounce. Platinum futures for October delivery fell 0.2 per cent to $US1,469.90 an ounce. Source:http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-beats-oil-on-safe-haven-demand-20140814-103wgf.html |
| 14 August 2014 - 专家：货币充裕的世界中 需要黄金作为对冲品 Posted: 14 Aug 2014 02:23 AM PDT From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2014/08/14151717812642.shtml First Eagle的全球价值主管Matt McLennan称，黄金是一种针对不确定的全球投资，比较聪明的对冲方式。 McLennan说："我们的目标总是创造一种都会变更富有的投资组合，我认为现在是处在风险资产在比较高水平交易的情况中。" McLennan管理着价值930亿美元的基金，他称他的投资组合中，70%为股票，20%为现金，10%为黄金和黄金矿企。 "现在的世界是个有太多债务又没有足够工作的世界，这会为任何地方带来金融萧条。并且在一个货币充裕的世界中，我们需要稀缺的东西，比如难以复制的商业模型，或者黄金本身这种非人造的东西。" McLennan指出，在风险资产不受欢迎的情况下，黄金会表现良好，相反也一样。他认为黄金更适合在一个平衡的投资组合中而非单独的买卖。 "可以说，如果你认为黄金是投资组合中压仓底的重要部分，并且如果你通过从矿企那里得到更便宜的黄金，这么想是很合理的。" |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Home To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
0 Comment for "14 August 2014 - The Daily Market Report: Gold May Rise as Confidence in Central Banks Wanes"