27 June 2014 - Gold Prices Benefit From Economic Sins |
- 27 June 2014 - Gold Prices Benefit From Economic Sins
- 27 June 2014 - Interesting times ahead for gold
- 27 June 2014 - 耶伦无视通胀或重蹈1970年经济危机 黄金将再次闪耀
| 27 June 2014 - Gold Prices Benefit From Economic Sins Posted: 27 Jun 2014 03:12 AM PDT From:http://goldsilverworlds.com/economy/gold-prices-benefit-from-economic-sins/ Gary Christenson | June 26, 2014 Governments, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan, spend their paper currencies as if tomorrow will never come. They act as if they believe debts can increase forever, more money will always be available, and debts can be rolled over forever. A recent US vice-president even stated that "deficits don't matter." Such economic sins may help the financial elite but they ultimately hurt most people and most economies. Governments pretend they don't know there are consequences to actions, bills must be paid, and nothing lasts forever. Government actions are equivalent to an individual announcing, "I can't be out of money, my credit cards still work." A few consequences President Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971 and disconnected the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve and the dollar from the discipline of gold. The result, as measured by official national debt is shown here – a massive increase in debt. US national debt 1900 2014 economy The two invasions of Iraq have not, based on recent ISIS conquests, produced the benefits that the US & UK war planners expected. The costs as measured in human life, international prestige, and expenses have been considerable. Additional consequences have been massively increased national debt, a sluggish economy, and accelerating inflation in food and energy prices. Prognosis: higher oil prices, more inflation, weaker dollar and more economic sins. There are always consequences from the actions of individuals, countries, governments, and central banks. Prognosis: prepare for stormy weather. Regardless of what politicians profess, there are consequences to their actions – their economic sins – and it is wise to clearly assess the likely outcomes. Most governments spend much more than their income and borrow the difference – economic sin # 1. The result is a larger money supply and increasing debt. Eventually the central bank begins "printing money" – economic sin # 2. Consumer price inflation accelerates and angry citizens watch as their capital, savings, and pensions are consumed in the fires of government created inflation – economic sin # 3. A diversion, such as another war or invasion, is then needed and economic sin # 4 commences. Prognosis: more spending, more debt, and the cycles of economic sins and economic destruction will continue. CONCLUSIONS Expect larger government, more government programs, more debt, more spending, and more military adventures. Expect more price inflation, declining purchasing power for the dollar, euro, pound, and yen, and wages that will not increase to match the rise in the costs of food, energy, and taxes. Expect excuses and diversions. Hyperinflation, another economic sin, can be created by central banks and governments. It may seem unlikely in the USA, but it is very real in Argentina and Zimbabwe. It can happen in Europe, Japan, the US, and the UK. The costs to savings, investments, and personal well-being would be incalculable. We can't tax ourselves into prosperity. "Printing money" does not create wealth. We can't inflate our currencies into wealth for the masses. We can't devalue our dollars, yen, pounds, and euros and expect to create capital or lasting prosperity. Debts are paid, one way or another. More wars and invasions benefit military contractors – but at what cost to everyone else? Gold has been a store of value for 5,000 years. It has protected people from inflation, wars, and irresponsible governments during the last several thousand years. Gold has not always and forever been a good investment – the price of gold declined between 1980 and 2000. But gold is currently excellent insurance against counter-party risk, consumer price inflation, central bank "money printing" and the consequences of the economic sins committed by irresponsible governments and central banks. Gold (and silver) prices have bottomed and will move up substantially for several years. Source:http://goldsilverworlds.com/economy/gold-prices-benefit-from-economic-sins/ |
| 27 June 2014 - Interesting times ahead for gold Posted: 27 Jun 2014 03:10 AM PDT From:http://www.bdlive.co.za/blogs/markets/2014/06/26/interesting-times-ahead-for-gold? BY DAVE LEVENSTEIN, JUNE 26 2014, 17:08 WE ARE in very interesting times right now. The lower US 2014 growth forecast by the US Federal Reserve and lingering geopolitical tension in Iraq and Ukraine have rekindled investors' interest in gold. Add to this exploding government debt, and what we have is a perfect cocktail for a financial collapse. The rally in gold that we are seeing is way overdue, but there are still a lot of shorts in this market that could create a real scramble if the upside momentum continues. Silver prices, meanwhile, were up about 8% on the week to Tuesday, after prices increased as gold rallied. The price of spot gold has traded very close to $21 an ounce. Gold surged more than 3% for its best day in eight months last Thursday after the latest Fed announcement and continued tension in the Middle East unleashed a wave of short covering. The price of spot gold hit a nine-week high and closed well above a key psychological resistance at $1,300/oz after the Fed statement and geopolitical tension sparked a frantic reversal in market sentiment, triggering heavy stop-loss orders for traders who had previously expected lower bullion prices on hopes of a better US economy. Last Wednesday, and as expected, the Fed reduced its QE (quantitative easing) purchase by an additional $10bn to $35bn a month. However, Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen pledged that the monetary policy would be accommodative and signalled that the Fed would stick with a near-zero interest rate policy to support the economy. The low rate pledge by the Fed triggered a wave of short-covering and technical buying in gold, which pushed the price above tough resistance at $1,285, triggering more stop-loss buys, which sent the price above the $1,300/oz level, as well as its 50-and 100-day moving averages. At the time of writing the price of spot gold had remained above $1,300/oz and looked set to trade at higher levels. Earlier in the week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for the US economy this year. The Washington-based IMF now sees the world's largest economy growing 2% this year, down from an April estimate of 2.8%. The IMF left a 2015 prediction unchanged at 3%, and said it doesn't expect the US to see full employment until the end of 2017, amid low inflation. The IMF forecast comes less than a week after the World Bank reduced its 2014 growth forecast for the US, to 2.1% from 2.8%. Private economists have also lowered their predictions this month. Fighting flared between Ukrainian and pro-Moscow separatist forces, both sides reported on Sunday, despite a unilateral ceasefire declared by Ukraine as Russian President Vladimir Putin pressed Kiev to talk to the rebels. Violence continues in the Middle East as Sunni militants captured four more towns and three border crossings. Perhaps one of the biggest threats to the region is the possibility of the Sunni militants taking control of Iraq as this could lead to the destabilisation of Saudi Arabia. And if this should happen, oil prices will soar, sending gold prices through the roof. But some interesting commercial and scientific developments are also happening. According to Silver News, in April the US Food and Drug Administration approved the Spectra Shield single-use mask to protect against micro-organisms, body fluids and particulate materials during a medical emergency. The N95 shield is coated with a silver/copper agent and embedded with zeolite, a mineral with absorbent properties. Made by Nexera Medical in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, the mask blocks 95% of the bacteria that causes Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA, according to the company's tests which were submitted to the FDA. MRSA is a flesh-eating staph infection growing more common in hospitals and is very difficult to knock down with antibiotic drugs as the bacteria grows ever more resistant. The mask also blocks the bacteria responsible for strep throat, meningitis, tonsillitis and streptococcal toxic shock syndrome. Normal face masks do not filter out very small particles which are transmitted through the air by coughing or sneezing. Source:http://www.bdlive.co.za/blogs/markets/2014/06/26/interesting-times-ahead-for-gold? |
| 27 June 2014 - 耶伦无视通胀或重蹈1970年经济危机 黄金将再次闪耀 Posted: 27 Jun 2014 03:09 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-27/166091160.html 2014-06-27 07:10:02 来源：FX168 著名财经撰稿人John Nyaradi周四(6月26日)撰文称，耶伦和她的同僚似乎对近期通胀上行充耳不闻，最好希望他们是对的，不然美联储将为其付出沉痛的代价，因为美国或将面临新一轮的滞涨危机，而诸如黄金这类通胀及经济危机的资产将再次闪耀。 美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)曾在6月FOMC会议新闻发布会上，将市场对通胀担忧轻描淡写地描述成"噪音"。同时，耶伦表示目前不会提前升息，依然维持其近乎零的低利率政策。著名财经撰稿人John Nyaradi周四(6月26日)撰文称，耶伦和她的同僚似乎对近期通胀上行充耳不闻，最好希望他们是对的，不然美联储将为其付出沉痛的代价，因为美国或将面临新一轮的滞胀危机 宏观经济学将滞胀定义为高通胀、高失业率及经济增速放缓同时存在的经济现象。1970年的美国经济危机正是这一情况。 Nyaradi在文中列举了四项早期的征兆： 一.全球经济增长放缓。 周三(6月25日)美国一季度GDP终值曾被下修至-2.9%，创5年来最大跌幅，但市场多数认为这是因一季度的严寒气候所致，并看好二季度经济增长。 世界银行近期曾将全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%,并指出欧洲正在对抗通缩，而中国的经济增速也将出现放缓。国际货币基金组织(IMF)也表示，尽管美联储仍在继续着超宽松货币政策，但预计2014年美国经济增速将下降至2%。 二.商品价格上涨。 受伊拉克动乱爆发的影响，近期原油价格持续飙升，而金银也历经了反弹。此外，不论是星巴克的咖啡价格，还是餐厅的食物价格都在持续上涨。由于美国70%的经济来源于消费，商品价格上涨无疑会拖累美国经济。 三.失业率居高不下。 尽管近几个月来美国非农就业人数持续增加，但美国劳工部(Bureau of Labor Statistics)此前也表示，近340万美国人依旧处于长期失业状态(失业超过27周)，这部分人群几乎占据了美国总失业人群(980万人)的三分之一。 四.通胀走高。 美国5月CPI同比增长2.1%，创20个月最大升幅，环比上涨0.4%，创16个月新高。美国国内食品价格上涨2.5%，能源上涨3.3%，住房上涨2.9%，医疗上涨3%，交通运输上涨3.1%。由此看出，对美国通胀担忧是有理有据的。但耶伦对此的解释是，美联储更加关心的是美国PCE个人消费支出物价指数。 美国商务部(DOC)周四(6月26日)公布的数据显示，美国5月个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年率增长1.8%，增幅升至2012年10月以来新高。因此我们需要继续关注未来几个月的美国CPI和PCE指标，同时也需关注美联储是否会继续将其定义为"噪音"，还是会暗示低通胀以及低利率时代的结束。 Nyaradi指出，若真的出现滞胀，美联储将处在一个进退两难的位置。升息打压通胀将减缓美国经济增速，但不升息又会放任情况变得更加糟糕。通常在通胀持续上行的情况下，美联储将不得不远离宽松货币政策，并选择尽快升息。 然而，不断升息和收紧货币供应的结果是经济萎缩，导致滞胀环境变得更加糟糕，就如同1970年美国所经历的那场经济危机一样。 当然，在经济滞涨期间也存在许多投资机会，包括与通胀挂钩的公司债券，通胀保值债券(TIPS)，房地产以及商品股票板块例如金银和矿业。此外，在滞涨来临时也需牢记一句话—"现金为王"。 |
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