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CHART: Interest rates vs gold price shows plenty upside

CHART: Interest rates vs gold price shows plenty upside


CHART: Interest rates vs gold price shows plenty upside

Posted: 14 Aug 2014 01:07 AM PDT

Gold was trading sideways on Wednesday around the $1,310 level, holding onto gains of nearly 9% this year.

This year the price of gold has found some support from safe haven buying thanks to the political crises in Eastern Europe and the Middle-East, but the number one negative factor working against the metal has been expectations of higher market interest rates and rising bond yields in the US.

As the chart shows the relationship between real long-term interest rates in the US (as proxied by 10-year US inflation-linked bonds) and the gold price is strongly negative.

Rising real interest rates raises the opportunity costs of holding gold because the metal provides no yield, and entices investors to rotate into riskier assets like stocks as evidenced by outflows from physical gold-backed ETFs which have continued this year.

Higher rates also boost the value of the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price.

But despite consensus forecast by economists of higher rates the expected upward march of bond yields seems to have thoroughly reversed, even as the world's largest economy continues to recover and the Federal Reserve throttles back monetary stimulus.

On Wednesday benchmark treasuries were testing support at 2.46% from above 3% last year, while adjusted for inflation yield in the US sunk to a meagre 0.22% versus 0.75% at the start of the year.

According to this chart, 0.22% yield on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS (which is actually up from a 14-month low hit last week) seems more consistent with a gold price of around $1,400 an ounce versus today's levels.

CHART: Interest rates vs gold price shows plenty upside

Source: Saxo Bank

Do You Know The “Quality” Of Diesel Fuel You Are Buying?

Posted: 13 Aug 2014 06:00 PM PDT

Most fuel buyers assume the diesel fuels they purchase meet the established (ASTM – American Society for Testing and Materials) specification requirements.  Whether diesel fuels are sourced from major producers or independent suppliers, there is absolutely NO guarantee this always happens. Click here to find out more.

Imperial Metals evicted by B.C. First Nation

Posted: 13 Aug 2014 12:48 PM PDT

Imperial Metals (TSX:III), whose Mount Polley tailings pond spilled a massive quantity of toxic waste on August 4, is being evicted from a B.C. First Nation's land in the Thompson Okanagan region.

The Vancouver-based mining company, which is conducting a metallurgical survey in the area for its Ruddock Creek zinc-lead project, has received a notice from the Neskonlith band to vacate, The Canadian Press reported.

The band, one of 17 forming the Secwepemc First Nation, cited the Mount Polley tailings pond breach as a reason for refusing to allow mining development that might endanger water purity and salmon habitat on its land near Chase, about 48 kilometres east of Kamloops.

The catastrophic failure of the tailings pond wall at the Mount Polley copper and gold mine near the community of Likely released 10 billion litres of water and 4.5 million cubic metres of metals-laden fine sand, contaminating several lakes, rivers and creeks in the Cariboo region.

At a protest Monday against Imperial Metals in Vancouver, Dawn Morrison of the Secwepemc said that the disaster impacted the northern part of her people's territory.

She said the Ruddock Creek Mine was being developed without Secwepemc consent and suggested the project threatened the upper Adams River watershed important for sockeye salmon.

"We need to stop them. They're doing (the mine development) without our permission," Morrison said. "We still very much assert that we have full title. We have never surrendered or ceded it."

Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Sierra Club B.C. renewed its call to the provincial government to establish an independent committee of experts to investigate the Mount Polley disaster and quickly assess risks at other mine tailings ponds across the province.

Forest and Climate Campaigner Jens Wieting said in a release that Bill Bennett, B.C.'s minister of energy and mines, "is losing the trust of British Columbians by claiming the Mount Polley catastrophe is not an environmental disaster."

"We need an honest acknowledgement of the scope and the scale of the environmental disaster and the long term risks and uncertainties," Wieting said. "Instead we have seen greenwashing and spin to lull British Columbians into a false sense of security."

"Only an independent in-depth investigation to establish what went wrong at Mount Polley will give us answers and next steps in which we can trust."

Mexican copper mine 'too slow' to report spill

Posted: 13 Aug 2014 11:43 AM PDT

Mexican copper mine too slow to report spill: authorities

Spill (aerial taken Sunday). Credit: Twitter | @Noti_SONORA

Grupo Mexico has denied reports claiming it did not immediately report a massive acid spill from its Buenavista mine in northern Mexico, just about 40 km from the U.S. border, allowing toxic waste to flow into a river that supplies water to hundreds of thousands of people.

In a press release posted by SoyCobre.com (in Spanish), the company said it proceeded to build a retaining wall to prevent the 40,000 cubic meters spill from spreading as soon as it detected the toxic leak.

But Carlos Arias, director of civil defence for the northern state of Sonora, told AP yesterday that residents detected the sulphuric acid leak downstream the next day, at which point the mine operators hadn't notified state authorities.

Mexican copper mine too slow to report spill: authorities

The spill affected seven different municipalities, turning the 420-kilometer-long waterway orange. Credit: Twitter | @betoeliasm

"The company deliberately concealed the accident," Cesar Lagarda, an official at the National Water Commission (PROFEPA), told La Jornada (in Spanish).

He added the agency found concentrations of arsenic and some metals that exceeded levels permitted in the waters of Sonora, adding that authorities continue to monitor chemicals water quality at multiple points along the river.

Lagarda also said the accident was due to lack of proper supervision at the mine, along with rains and construction defects.

Mexican copper mine too slow to report spill: authorities

Credit: Twitter | @betoeliasm

Despite dumping lime into the river to neutralize the acidity of the leaked chemical, local reports the contamination has already killed fish and cattle in the area.

Water supplies from the river have been cut off to about 20,000 people.

Top mining state

Sonora is home to more than a quarter of Mexico's mining industry and leads in gold, copper and graphite production.

Mexico's federal government recently opened up the country's vital energy sectors such as electricity generation and oil production to private companies.

In 2009 an American subsidiary of Grupo Mexico, Asarco, paid the U.S. government a record $1.79 billion to settle hazardous waste pollution in 19 states.

VIDEO: May's devastating flooding that hit Bosnia and Herzegovina

Posted: 13 Aug 2014 11:10 AM PDT

ArcelorMittal Zenica, and ArcelorMittal Prijedor will donate US$350,000 each to flood-affected local communities that hit Bosnia and Herzegovina in May this year.

Three months' worth of rain fell on the region in just three days in May, creating the worst floods since records began 120 years ago.

The rain turned Serbia's largest coal mine into a lake. RB Kolubara miner lignite powers half of Serbia electricity needs. The operator hopes to achieve 70 percent capacity this month.

Approximately 1.5 million people, or 30% of the population in Bosnia, were affected by the floods. The rain caused nearly 300 landslides in the country, burying dozens of houses and cars and further complicating relief efforts.

Money will go to rebuilding the damaged areas as well as landslide prevention.

Image from Mining Mayhem

Keystone pollution may be four times estimates: study

Posted: 13 Aug 2014 10:50 AM PDT

The controversial Keystone XL pipeline could result in four times more greenhouse-gas emissions than previously thought, according to a new study by researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute.

U.S. State Department findings earlier this year that the pipeline would make no significant difference failed to account for an increase in the amount of oil on the market as a result of the proposed infrastructure, the study says.

Such an increase could reduce oil prices, spur consumption and lead to more emissions, write researchers Michael Lazarus and Peter Erickson.

The co-authors used existing data from previous research and international agencies that mathematically illustrate the way oil prices affect consumption.

"We find that approval of the Keystone XL pipeline could lead … to an increase in global GHG emissions four times as big as prior analyses have concluded," the study says.

This finding—developed here using a simple supply and demand model—points to the need for greater availability and transparency of oil supply and demand analyses," it says.

Canada's government claims the study's conclusions were derived from false assumptions, according to The Canadian Press.

Ottawa "agrees with the U.S. State Department analysis that Keystone XL will be safer and less emitting than alternative options," according to an email from Natural Resources Canada quoted by the news agency.

According to the study, Keystone XL's yearly carbon impact could reach 110 million tonnes versus the State Department's largest estimate of 27 million tonnes.

The Stockholm Environment Institute is a non-profit, international research group based in Sweden whose work receives both public and private support.

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