16 June 2014 - Why Gold Is Rising |
| 16 June 2014 - Why Gold Is Rising Posted: 16 Jun 2014 04:05 AM PDT From:http://wallstcheatsheet.com/business/why-gold-is-rising.html/ BEN KRAMER-MILLER JUNE 15, 2014 The price of gold has risen this year by about 5.5 percent, which is more than the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After spiking at the beginning of the year from $1,200/ounce to nearly $1,400/ounce, gold corrected to under $1,250/ounce where it was met with buying. Now the yellow metal appears to be on the rise again. I expect it to continue to do so, as there are several catalysts driving the price. First, there is interest from central banks, who have been net buyers of gold since 2010. In particular we have been seeing interest from Russia, which sold Treasury Bonds in April in order to accumulate 30 tonnes of gold, or more than 1 percent of annual mine supply. We have also been seeing interest from Turkey, Kazakhstan, and South Korea. It is widely believed that the People's Bank of China has been buying a tremendous amount of gold, and this belief is backed up by the incredible amount of buying that we have seen in China over the past two years or so. However, there is no formal statement from the PBoC that this is the case, and so this claim is speculative, at best. Second, we should expect to see a decline in gold supply over the next couple of years. Lower prices plus higher production costs have made it very difficult for many mining companies to find funding for their projects. This has impacted some very large projects from Seabridge Gold's (NYSE:SA) KSM project to Chesapeake Gold's (OTCMKTS:CHPGF) Metates project, each of which would add nearly a million ounces of gold to the world supply per year. Third, we are seeing continued stimulus coming out of central banks. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond buying program it has been pumping money into the economy. The ECB recently lowered interest rates below zero, which means that there is a carrying cost for Euros. This means that Europeans have an incentive to sell Euros and to buy an asset whose supply isn't rising rapidly, one of which is gold. Fourth, economic data both in the United States and at the global level has been relatively weak. The World Bank recently reported that it is reducing its forecast for global growth this year from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent. Furthermore, we saw GDP decline in the U.S. in the first quarter by 1 percent, which means that the U.S. is at risk of entering a recession. Retail sales numbers have also been coming in weak, and they would be considerably weaker if it weren't for inflation and the fact that people are borrowing money in order to buy cars. A weak economy is bad for global stock markets, and when people sell their stocks they need to put their money somewhere. Bonds are overvalued, and there are large institutions selling bonds such as the Central Bank of Russia. Furthermore the Federal Reserve is buying fewer bonds, which means that there is less demand in the market. This leaves gold as the best option for many investors. Longer term investors interested in owning gold should consider buying the Sprott Physical Gold ETF (NYSEARCA:PHYS), which is taxed like a stock. This means that your gains are taxed at the capital gains rate as opposed to the more popular SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), which is taxed as a collectible at 28 percent. More aggressive investors who want to put in the effort should research individual gold miners. Generally there is far more value in small, undiscovered names and so this is where I focus my efforts and my investing dollars. I would avoid ETFs such as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which owns several poor performing companies as well as companies that produce a lot of base metals. Source:http://wallstcheatsheet.com/business/why-gold-is-rising.html/ |
| 16 June 2014 - 伊拉克局势骤然紧张 避险黄金需求激增 Posted: 16 Jun 2014 04:03 AM PDT From:http://futures.cnfol.com/huangjinqihuos/20140615/18132458.shtml 来源：环球外汇网 作者：佚名 2014-06-15 13:06:01 环球外汇6月14日讯--本周(6月9日-6月13日)现货黄金日线连收5阳，也是连续第二周上行， 自1240美元/盎司低点以来， 已上涨近40美元。本周涨幅迄今约1.6%， 下行压力大大减轻。虽然美元有所反弹， 但金价未受打压， 主要受乌克兰和伊拉克等地缘政治局势影响， 此外， 欧洲央行(ECB)引入负利率， 降低了资金流入欧元区的热情， 使得金价吸引力相对上升。 在油价上涨及伊拉克局势存在不确定性的情况下，避险资产黄金的需求激增。油价上涨可能引发通胀担忧，因此可能提振被视为抵御通胀工具的黄金的需求。黄金传统上被视作在政治和经济风险加剧、出现通货膨胀时的避险投资品，此前受益于自冷战结束以来最严重的东西方对峙。 当前基本面格局 1.库尔德武装力量周四控制了伊拉克北部一省的首府(石油重镇)，而伊朗方面称，将向伊拉克派遣革命卫队。本周早些时候，伊斯兰武装分子占领了伊拉克摩苏尔和提克里特市，该国因此陷入2003年以来的最大危机。油价上涨、通胀上升以及地缘政治不确定性通常会推高黄金的需求。 2.俄罗斯和乌克兰天然气价格谈判仍在继续。乌克兰总理命令政府和地区当局准备应对俄罗斯自下周一开始削减天然气供应。乌克兰提出向俄确定天然气供应临时价格。乌克兰天然气巨头表示，若俄乌批准326美元/千立方米过渡性天然气价格，乌克兰准备向俄罗斯偿还19亿美元悬而未决的债务。 3.英国央行(BOE)加息可能至少比美联储(FED)早六个月，而且与欧洲央行形成鲜明对比。欧洲央行上周降息，而且未来数月还可能放宽政策。与此同时，日本央行(BOJ)推出更多刺激举措的可能性再度成为市场焦点。 4.美国经济数据方面。4月批发库存月率上升1.1%，预期为上升0.5%，前值亦为上升1.1%；4月批发销售月率上升1.3%，好于预期的上升0.8%；5月零售销售额小幅增加至4376.5亿美元；6月7日当周初请失业金人数增加0.4万，至31.7万，高于预期的31万；美国5月PPI月率下降0.2%，预期为上升0.1%。 5.印度方面的消息，有分析指出莫迪政府可能会放松黄金进口限制，并且放弃其他一些压制黄金的政策。在同等的条件下，可能引发印度的潜在黄金抢购狂潮，这将推高世界范围内的黄金价格。印度的投资者目前都处于观望态势，等待进一步的有利条件，这反映出印度国内的黄金团体纷纷预期黄金进口税以及其他的反黄金进口的障碍都很快被解除。 6.南非矿工与建筑业联盟(AMCU)领袖周五表示，他希望在周末和三大铂金企业会面，向他们提交工人对薪资提议的正式回应，这可能意味着持续了五个月的罢工即将结束。分析师表示，铂金系金属(PGMs)上行仍有空间，因矿场恢复运作将需一个漫长且缓慢的过程。 7.截止到6月10日黄金净多头较上周小幅增加，由59151份增加至61127份，黄金多头由157332份增加至159567份，空头由98181份增加至98440份。黄金在1240附近获得支撑，市场看多黄金的兴趣增加意味着金价短期内有望反弹。 当前技术面格局分析 技术日图显示，现货黄金以长阳线收盘，突破1258压力后爆发性上行。移动平均线系统进入震荡阶段，MA5移动平均线在1254位置支持金价走势，整体看涨。趋势指标MACD指标零轴下方空头市场，下行动能减弱，双线零轴下方金叉后向上运行。现货黄金价格持续位于关键的斐波那契回调位1262.70美元/盎司以及21日移动均线1269.69美元/盎司上方。 黄金自6月3日低位1240.73美元/盎司加速走高，后市可能进一步上涨。动能指标确认涨势，并且平滑异同移动平均线(MACD)同样看涨，相对强弱指数(RSI)位于50上方，黄金或有望进一步上看50日均线1286.99美元/盎司以及5月27日高点1292.83美元/盎司。 支撑阻力方面，现货黄金当前支撑在4月24日黄金价格低点1268.35美元/盎司，更下方支持关注1240.51，持续下破将确认打开下行空间，若跌破则下看1231.45；上方阻力位于4月15日黄金价格低点1287.28，更强阻力见于1300.00整数关口及1315.45。 机构黄金点评 瑞士经纪商MKS首席交易员Afshin Nabavi称，伊拉克爆发动乱的确推高了油价和金价，但此类避险情绪无法对金价提供较长期的支撑，建议在金价接近1280美元时逢高做空。目前1300美元是金价难以逾越的一道重要阻力，若未来没有更多的基本面消息支撑，金价可能重新跌至1240美元。 威斯克特金融顾问集团的董事经理，高级金融顾问理查德-盖特尔(Richard Gotterer)指出，伊拉克的地缘政治事件目前尚未了结，正好为黄金价格提供了所需要的支持。不过在周五的时候，投资者在消化最新的消息同时，似乎对采取观望策略是相当安心的。 ForexLive分析师Adam Button周四表示，目前金价已经突破4月低位1268美元，该位置是过去近2个月来的重要阻力，金价的下个目标可能看向55日以及200日均线水平(1288美元附近)。Auerbach Grayson的全球技术策略师Richard Ross认为，短期来看，要关注1270的水平，接近目前150天移动均线。突破这一水平后，可能就能重新测试1400的阻力水平了。 全球最大的财经博客Seeking Alpha贵金属分析Richard Cox 则指出，SPDR基金黄金ETF持续外流，黄金ETF持仓达到近4个月新低。这令市场投资者颇感头痛。目前黄金底部仍未突破。这些偏空信号令黄金投资者颇感焦虑。自去年10月，就整体趋势而言，黄金仍偏下行。这或警示黄金多头在最佳做空机会失去之前，或可抛售黄金。 Source:http://futures.cnfol.com/huangjinqihuos/20140615/18132458.shtml |
| Posted: 15 Jun 2014 06:13 PM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-06-14/165690450.html 因技术面走势稳健而伊拉克动荡加剧，促使金价在周四晚间上涨再创本周新高，且周五白天交易时段仍维持在1270美元/盎司上方。 美国总统奥巴马周四威胁将对伊拉克的逊尼派伊斯兰武装发动军事打击，后者已逼近巴格达，而库尔德族武装趁乱控制了什叶派领导的政府所弃守的石油重镇基尔库克。尽管该消息在一些市场人士看来并不是重磅消息，对美元和汇市影响也不大，但原油和黄金价格已从中受益。 此外，美国5月零售销售增幅不及预期，上周初请失业金人口增加，进一步削弱人们对经济的乐观看法，美股、日经指数都振荡下跌，市场不确定性增加，或将为后市金价进一步走强提供更多支撑。 我们难以厘清黄金价格上涨，究竟是因为本身的上涨需求，还是受股市和伊拉克事件的影响，或者两者皆有但除了上述因素外，还有很多其他方面的消息共同影响着市场：英国央行总裁卡尼周四表示，英国利率可能比金融市场的预期更早调升，这种紧缩性言论令英镑大涨，这对黄金来说并不是什么好消息，而日本央行周五如市场预期维持货币政策不变、中国5月新增人民币贷款意外创下逾10年同期新高，则对黄金构成利好。 所以从基本面来看，各方因素依旧是多空交织，这样的背景下，黄金反弹虽气势初成，但反弹根基却未必坚实。另外，除了汇率政策和流动性之外，中国最近严查铜融资，或许也会波及黄金融资，这也是容易被投资者忽略的一个影响金价的重要因素。 从务实的角度出发，因为近期金价呈阶梯型上涨，因此只要上升趋势不破，多头就可继续持有，稳健投资者可将止盈位由此前的1255上移至1270或1267，破位即获利了结。 中国银行(601988,股吧)广东省分行资金业务部 刘文亮 |
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