22 May 2014 - The World Is Running Out Of Gold

Posted: 22 May 2014 03:28 AM PDT

From:http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/05/the-world-is-running-out-of-gold/

KELSEY CAMPBELL-DOLLAGHAN TODAY 8:45 AM

How much gold would you have if you stole every bit that's ever been mined? Not much — you'd be able to make a cube of solid gold with 18m sides. There just isn't that much gold in the world, and it's getting harder and harder to find it. In fact, our love of gadgets may be part of the problem.

In a report from the Wall Street Journal this morning, we learn that we're only two decades away from exhausting the world's gold supply if mining continues apace. How could we be running out of gold? It's simple. As gold boomed in the '90s and '00s, the easy-to-access deposits were sapped of their supplies. Now, the gold being discovered is way deeper into the Earth, which means that discovering it takes a lot more work before it can be extracted.

Now, new gold discoveries are incredibly rare. In fact, in 2012, there were none at all:

In 1995, 22 gold deposits with at least two million ounces of gold each were discovered, according to SNL Metals Economics Group. In 2010 there were six such discoveries, and in 2011 there was one. In 2012: nothing.

Unless gold companies want to dig deeper — often in arctic areas that are notoriously difficult to mine — it's becoming difficult to discover the low-hanging (or high-hanging, in this case) fruit. In one instance quoted in the story, miners had to blast away 100 tonnes of rock to find just an ounce of the good stuff. It's contributing to illegal mining practices too.

Sure, a gold cube with 18m sides sounds massive. But think about chiseling that block into all the gold bars, coins, electronic components, and even jewellery that exists in the world. It's actually extremely small — there's only .005 parts per million in the Earth's crust, compared to 50 parts per million of copper. In fact, some gold experts say we have even less: in 2013, Warren Buffet estimated that the cube would only have sides of 6m in length.

Here's where things get really strange. As the BBC points out, all of the gold mined since the beginning of time has, in essence, been recycled: A piece of gold mined by the Romans may have been melted down into a gold bar in the 1800s, say, and may have eventually made its way into a consumer product like a gold watch.

But all those gadgets and computers and electronics that require minute amounts of gold to function? They're changing that gold reuse pattern for the first time in history. Because so little gold is used in this tech, it doesn't make sense to recycle it. So while gold, like air, has remained a static resource on Earth, that's no longer true. Our gold resources will continue to deplete, one iPhone at a time. [Wall Street Journal, BBC]

Source:http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/05/the-world-is-running-out-of-gold/

22 May 2014 - 去美元化之货币战争黄金或可坐享其成

Posted: 22 May 2014 03:26 AM PDT

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-22/165019603.html

2014-05-22 07:40:28 来源：FX168

国际黄金目前仍在1290-1305区间内窄幅振荡。下降趋势线受乌克兰支撑未能跌破；上涨趋势线因美联储削减QE持续进行及美强劲经济数据影响未能成功守稳。

另外，数据显示，中国本年度黄金实物需求减少，"五一"黄金周黄金消费同比下降30%左右。

金银业贸易场(Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society)理事长张德熙(Haywood Cheung)表示，继2013年中国黄金购买热潮以后，2014年黄金消费现状与2012年较为相近。

去年四月，因金价大跌，中国出现黄金购买狂潮，一时间"中国大妈"哄抢黄金举动令世界瞠目结舌。但是今年黄金购买热情渐渐退去。

张德熙在接受采访时表示，"以前消费者在金饰店每人大约花费1万港币(1290美元)，但现在消费水平在5000-6000港币左右。"该消费统计数据是由包括汇丰控股以及最大上市珠宝连锁店周大福[微博]珠宝集团在内的171位成员共同努力的结果。

张德熙补充说，"2014年黄金消费很特殊。虽然目前黄金消费回到2012水平，但料明年情形会有改善，黄金消费水平有望回到2013年水准。"

根据最新报告，中国今年4月金银珠宝销售同比下降30%，至208亿元(33亿美元，14亿欧元，19亿英镑)。

中国第一季度内地通过香港黄金净进口量徘徊在275.6吨，去年同期为210.5吨。

据瑞士联邦海关总署，今年1月，亚洲进口了瑞士80%金银。

根据世界黄金协会(WGC)2013年11月报告，受 "西金东流"驱动，瑞士重铸黄金，以来迎合亚洲消费者喜欢高纯度、小金条口味。

但是，2014年中国黄金实物消费下降。有人认为是人民币走弱使然。人民币贬值，使得美元计价的黄金相对较贵，黄金吸引力下降。中国通过香港黄金进口减少跟中国批准北京可以直接进口黄金有关。因此，中国黄金实际进口数据将更加保密。这不排除中国一些银行暗地增加黄金储备可能。这可能使得中国黄金消费有被低估的风险。

虽然中国黄金市场未来前景不知，但是全球黄金市场可能迎来了新纪元。

一直以来，印度将黄金和原油(103.76, -0.31, -0.30%)进口视为该国经常项目赤字不断走高的罪魁祸首，印度人尤其喜欢用黄金来对冲通胀风险。印度央行[微博]此前称，印度约有80%的经常项目赤字是黄金进口所致。为此，印度政府把降低赤字的重点放在抑制黄金需求上。最大反对党人民党赢得印度大选，莫迪的当选使市场对印度新政府解禁黄金进口限制措施的预期有所升温。料印度今年的黄金需求将在900-1000吨水平。

乌克兰局势一直维持僵持局面。俄罗斯总统普京警告西方大国称，在6月1日之前，如果基地政府仍没偿清俄罗斯天然气债务，俄罗斯将停止供应欧洲天然气。

上周四(5月15日)，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)要求乌克兰偿还原本已经到期高达35亿美元的债务。

由于受到以美国为首的西方国家经济制裁，俄罗斯商业活动领域目前正在试图去"美元化"。

数十年来，几乎所有的原油及天然气都是通过美元交易。但是由于受乌克兰局势影响，俄罗斯减少了与美国的金融往来。如果俄罗斯去"美元化"进一步实施，这无疑对一向甚是优越的美元带来沉重打击。同时，也可能改变全球经济图景。

根据多方面消息，俄罗斯财政部准备增强卢布出口贸易低位，同时减少美元交易活动。

"去美元化会议"由俄罗斯第一副总理Igor Shuvalov主持举行。俄罗斯拟用卢布计价国际贸易。俄罗斯副财长Alexey Moiseev此后透露，俄政府可能用强制令，强迫俄企业让卢布交易在特定商品交易中达到一定比例。

俄媒还获悉，中国与伊朗都愿意支持俄的外贸"去美元"大计。俄媒进一步预计，本月中俄可能签署以卢布和人民币结算的油气协议。

"石油美元"是美国经济重要的基础之一，因为它创造了全世界对美元大量的需求，使得美国有能力发行大量债务而不用担心违约。

俄罗斯总统普京5月20日访华期间，俄第二大贷款机构VTB与中国银行(601988,股吧)签署以中俄各自本币付款的合作协议，避免在投资银行、银行间贷款、贸易融资、资本市场交易方面使用美元。

VTB正式声明称，根据协议，两家银行计划在多个领域开发合作关系，包括俄罗斯卢布和人民币结算等方面合作。

中国和俄罗斯都致力于加强本币在国际贸易中的影响。同时本币国际化也助于增加黄金储备。美元最终将失去其计价货币霸权。于此同时，西方各大央行以及日本央行正在努力贬值本国货币，全球货币战争将会进一步加剧。

当然，出于谨慎考虑，各参与方不会加大增持纸币。相反，他们会将财富转化成诸如黄金白银等硬通货。

目前，就总体趋势而言，黄金呈下降走势，金价徘徊于1300关口下方以及200日均线范围内。黄金短线看向1280支撑位及1320阻力。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-05-22/165019603.html

22 May 2014 - The World Is Running Out Of Gold

22 May 2014 - The World Is Running Out Of Gold

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