21 April 2014 - China allows gold imports via Beijing |
- 21 April 2014 - China allows gold imports via Beijing
- 21 April 2014 - Why China is a positive and not a negative for the gold price going forward
- 21 April 2014 - 乌克兰货币四个月贬值近四成 黄金充当保护神
21 April 2014 - China allows gold imports via Beijing Posted: 21 Apr 2014 03:34 AM PDT From:http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/21/China-allows-gold-imports-via-Beijing/ Published: Monday April 21, 2014 MYT 11:12:00 AM Updated: Monday April 21, 2014 MYT 11:21:04 AM SINGAPORE: China has begun allowing gold imports through its capital Beijing, sources familiar with the matter said, in a move that would help keep purchases by the world's top bullion buyer discreet at a time when it might be boosting official reserves. The opening of a third import point after Shenzhen and Shanghai could also threaten Hong Kong's pole position in China's gold trade, as the mainland can get more of the metal it wants directly rather than through a route that discloses how much it is buying. China does not release any trade data on gold. The only way bullion markets can get a sense of Chinese purchases is from the monthly release of export data by Hong Kong, which last year supplied US$53bil's worth of gold to the mainland. "We have already started shipping material in directly to Beijing," said an industry source, who did not want to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media. The quantities brought in so far are small, sources said. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is believed to be adding to its gold reserves, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), as it looks to diversify from US Treasuries. The central bank rarely reveals the numbers. Gold's 28% plunge last year and China's record bullion imports in 2013 sparked speculation that the PBoC has added significant amounts of gold to its reserves, and could likely make an announcement this year. Central banks tend to be very secretive about their gold purchases and sales because prices are extremely sensitive to their trades. Rumours last year of Cyprus selling its gold reserves to prop up finances sent the metal down more than 10% over two days – its biggest such decline in 30 years. Gold has traditionally been imported from Hong Kong into Shenzhen, where nearly 70% of the Chinese gold jewellery business is located. Shanghai was opened up as a second port last year. Only banks are allowed to import gold into China. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd, ANZ and HSBC are among the 12 banks that can import gold. 'TOO TRANSPARENT' China imported nearly 1,160 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong last year, more than twice that of 2012 as the drop in prices caused a spurt in demand. An analysis of trade figures from data provider Global Trade Information Services showed that China imported at least another 194 tonnes last year from centres other than Hong Kong, likely into Shanghai, showing that direct imports have ramped up. One of the reasons why China could be encouraging more direct imports was because it wanted to avoid taking the Hong Kong-to-Shenzhen route that makes its gold purchases public, while China wants to keep the trade a secret, sources said. "There is a view over why should people know how much China is buying," said one of the sources at a bullion banking operation in China. "With the Hong Kong route, there is a lot of transparency and people can easily monitor what is going in and out." Another source said the move to open up Beijing "is partly driven by the fact that Hong Kong is perhaps a little too transparent", but it is also to accommodate upcoming free-trade zones and non-jewellery demand. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, the platform for all physical trades in China and in whose vaults importing banks store gold across the country, was not immediately available to comment. CAUTION ON RESERVES ANNOUNCEMENT Besides the 1,160 tonnes of gold imported from Hong Kong last year, China had about 428 tonnes of local production. The WGC has said Chinese demand in 2013 was 1,066 tonnes, leaving industry guessing about the "surplus" of around 522 tonnes, not including the amount of direct imports. The central bank last disclosed its gold reserves in 2009, when it announced that its bullion holdings had risen to 1,054 tonnes from 600 tonnes in 2003. Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultancy Precious Metals Insights, has said China's official-sector purchases could have totalled 300 tonnes in the first half of 2013, and the pace likely continued in the latter half. "The major increase in gold supply to the Chinese market in 2012 and especially 2013 could be partly related to large-scale official purchases," according to a Klapwijk-led survey for the WGC that was released last week. The report said while a part of the surplus was being used for commodity financing deals, some of it could be for the PBoC as well. Rumours on PBoC's gold reserves range from 3,000 tonnes to 5,000 tonnes. The United States is the biggest holder of gold reserves with over 8,000 tonnes. Even a 1,000 tonne increase from last announced levels could prompt a jump in gold prices, which would make the PBoC very cautious about the timing of any announcement, said two China gold market analysts, who didn't want to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. – Reuters Source:http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/21/China-allows-gold-imports-via-Beijing/ |
21 April 2014 - Why China is a positive and not a negative for the gold price going forward Posted: 21 Apr 2014 03:31 AM PDT Posted on 20 April 2014 Last week a report from the World Gold Council suggested that around 1,000 tonnes of gold is being used as collateral in Chinese commodity financing deals that would be unwound if the shadow banking complex was to collapse. Not surprisingly news of such a supply overhang depressed the gold price. Since then analysts have pointed out that this is an assumption and based on little more than an estimate of gold imports. Moreover, last year gold experienced significant volatility and high local premiums in China that would not have made it ideal for financing. Copper is the usual commodity of choice for such deals. You don't use assets carrying large premiums either. Facts, facts So it looks like a rather poor piece of work that has unnecessarily damaged the gold price based on supposition rather than facts. Indeed, ArabianMoney has always argued that China is a valuable support for the gold price and also a reason why it will eventually head much higher. Certainly the selling of 880 tonnes of gold last year by ETFs would have depressed the price far further if it had not been for the uptake in China where the retail market for gold is particularly hot at the moment. Local retail investors want a little gold in their portfolios because perhaps deep down they know that good times cannot last forever. China has seen many episodes of paper money becoming worthless in its long history. We have also flagged up the fact that this gold is on a one-way trip to China. It is not coming back. The Chinese have not sent a bar back in the other direction for years. Gold exports are illegal. Thus the supply shortage in the West will be evident when the ETFs want to stock up on gold again as would happen with the slightest whiff of inflation or problems in the bond markets. That's positive for prices, not negative. If money printing is going to get out of control then China and Japan are the two most likely culprits. Japan is already printing three times more per capita than QE3 at its height. Gold is a hedge against currency devaluation. It's not something you can print. Shadow banking crisis Sure at the margins there would be gold sales if the Chinese shadow banking system imploded. Then again a far more probable scenario is a series of controlled detonations that will scare more local investors into buying something with a value that does not depend on any third party bank or financial institution. From the Western side there is the view that recent money printing will finally result in inflation as economic growth gathers pace. That's gold positive too. Then again if China and Japan get into trouble it is hard to believe over-inflated Western asset prices would hold up under the deflationary tsunami. US economic data splutters forward even now. Precious metals are a hedge against falling stock and real estate markets, or at least fall by less and rebound more quickly. Gold remains an attractive buy at current price levels. |
21 April 2014 - 乌克兰货币四个月贬值近四成 黄金充当保护神 Posted: 21 Apr 2014 03:25 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-04-21/164103493.html 2014年04月21日07:37 来源:FX168 欧盟,俄罗斯,乌克兰和美国外交官经过马拉松式会谈后在周四(4月17日)同意采取行动缓解危机。乌克兰爆发危机至今,经济濒临崩溃,该国货币呈自由下落,乌克兰货币格里夫纳成为2014年全球表现最糟糕的货币。格里夫纳/美元由1月18日的0.1196跌至4月11日的0.0755,贬值幅度达36.8%。 乌克兰央行4月14日将基准利率大幅上调3个百分点至9.5%。该国货币格里夫纳跌势暂缓,然而依然在全球所有货币中排名倒数第一。分析认为,此举无助于缓解跌势,乌克兰经济面临6年来的第三次衰退且外汇储备锐减,市场对该国境外债务再融资能力的担忧决定格里夫纳后市堪忧。 美国研究公司Rareview Macro的创始人Neil Azous表示,乌克兰央行加息后虽然格里夫纳的跌幅暂时有所收窄,但此举对未来几周料影响甚微,因为相比乌克兰国内债市的回报率,投资人更为关注乌克兰对境外债务再融资的能力。加息不会对中期行情有任何影响,鉴于乌克兰的贷款余额,不能忘记该国还有大量待重组的债务。 从下图可以看出,乌克兰货币价值以可怕的幅度和速度下滑。本周,以黄金计价的格里夫纳下跌了7.0%,金价由15,669格里夫纳/盎司升至16,880格里夫纳/盎司。 今年迄今,乌克兰金价由9992格里夫纳/盎司升至16,880格里夫纳/盎司,或者说,以黄金计价的格里夫尼亚价值在不到四个月的时间里下跌了69.0%。这导致了乌克兰普通民众食物,燃料和基本生活必需品的成本飙升。人们转而买入黄金,白银等硬通货和产生收入的资产保持,黄金等贵金属对冲风险的价值凸显。 再一次,持有实物黄金的幸运儿在货币坍塌中得到保护。他们现在能够买入食物,水,房产,土地,企业和其他产生收入的资产以及其他生活必需品。 因此,事实再次表明,那些声称黄金不能避险的人缺乏知识,有时只是出于偏见,他们甚至劝告投资者不要持有黄金。 黄金今天在乌克兰保护了其持有者,在未来,同样的事情还会再次发生。 |
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