<b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 21, 2014 - DailyForex.com |
- <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 21, 2014 - DailyForex.com
- <b>Gold Price</b> Volatility | Stewart Thomson | Safehaven.com
- <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 19, 2014 - DailyForex.com
| <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 21, 2014 - DailyForex.com Posted: 21 Mar 2014 03:03 AM PDT
By: DailyForex.com Gold prices continued to decline yesterday and touched the 1320 support level as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. The American dollar gained some more momentum across the board after the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims increased slightly and data released from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed that the index measuring manufacturing activity in the region climbed to 9 in March from -6.3 in February. Lately, easing concerns surrounding Ukraine and Russia coupled with growing perception that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates sooner and faster than previously thought have created the exodus out of gold. Speaking strictly based on the charts, the weekly and 4-hour charts suggest that the directional bias remains weighted to the downside. Basically the overall trend is up when prices are above the cloud, down when prices are below the cloud and flat when they are in the cloud itself. The XAU/USD pair has been making lower lows and lower highs since it printed a bearish engulfing candle on Monday, indicating that the bears are gaining strength since that the pair hit the 6-month high of 1392.04. However, it appears that the XAU/USD pair found some support just above the 1320 level. We have a bullish Tenkan-sen (nine-period moving average, red line) - Kijun-sen (twenty six-day moving average, green line) cross on the 30-minute time frame and therefore it is technically possible to see a short-term bounce targeting the 1338 - 1339 area, as long as the 1330 support level holds the market. If we break through the 1338/9 zone, the pair may extend its bullish movement and revisit the 1346 resistance level. If the American dollar resumes its bullish sentiment and prices fall below the 1330 support level, there will be interim support at 1326.14. Below that, an important challenge will be waiting the sellers at 1320. Breaching this level would indicate that the bears will continue to dominate the market.  | ||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Volatility | Stewart Thomson | Safehaven.com Posted: 25 Mar 2014 10:00 AM PDT There are very few price areas where risk capital can be invested in gold, with a reasonable degree of confidence that a "significant low point" will be established there. In my professional opinion, those price areas are major HSR (horizontal support and resistance) zones. These key HSR zones are most apparent on the weekly and monthly gold charts. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. On this monthly gold chart, note the buy-side HSR in the $1227.50 area. Even when the gold price "arrived" in this key area, it still declined about $50 further, to $1180. When there is no major buy-side HSR in the current price area, it is very difficult to make accurate predictions about the next major rally. Long term technical oscillators on that monthly chart suggest that the big rally from the $1227.50 HSR zone can continue, but without major buy-side HSR in play now, it's a bit of a crapshoot to guess when a sustained move higher will commence. As gold rallied into the $1390 area, Indian gold dealers began mentioning the possibility of a dip towards the $1300 area. Their bids appear to have diminished in the $1360 - $1390 zone. While hedge funds kept buying near the highs, they generally use a lot of leverage. They have to exit the market quickly when it declines. Without heavy support from physical dealers, gold tends to experience violent intermediate trend sell-offs around key Western fundamental events like FOMC meetings, comex option expiry, and US employment reports. On that note, please click here now. That's a snapshot from the CME website of the comex April gold option contract. Those options expire tomorrow (March 26). While there are lots of call options outstanding, there are also many put options with a $1300 "strike" price. Put option holders profit if the price of gold is well below their strike price on expiry day. Deep-pocketed banks that hold the other side of that trade are likely to be buyers of gold futures contracts in this general price area, in an attempt to prevent put option holders from making large profits. Please click here now. That's the daily gold chart. There is minor trend HSR at $1308, $1300, and $1280. Gold is currently trading above all three of those prices. Because of the severe drawdowns that many gold market investors have experienced over the past few years, emotions can run very high on any disappointing sell-off, like the current one. It's important for investors to fight those emotions and maintain their focus on the big picture. It's likely that Indian dealers are already beginning to come back into the gold market, and that should reduce price volatility almost immediately. Please click here now. That's a daily chart of the US dollar versus the Indian rupee. The dollar broke below key HSR yesterday. Breakdowns that occur on low volume tend to be significant, and that's the case here . A major decline in the dollar against the rupee would increase the amount of gold that Indians can buy. That's bullish for gold. Please click here now. That's the daily silver chart. Note the stokeillator, at the bottom of the chart. The lead line is at about 20, which is where decent minor trend rallies can begin. While Indian dealers have reduced their gold imports over the past year due to government red tape, they have increased silver imports quite significantly. Silver is my favourite metal right now, and a Narendra Modi win in the upcoming Indian election could help silver prices recover quite nicely. Modi has been weighed in silver by local dealers, and he is endorsed by all the major Indian bullion associations. Please click here now. That's the daily CRB (general commodity index) chart. The RSI oscillator become massively overbought. I highlighted that with a red circle. The overbought condition has now dissipated. Note the position of the stokeillator at the bottom of the chart. It suggests a general commodity rally should start very soon, but that rally is likely to be only a minor trend move. In the commodity sector, and especially in gold and silver, some patience is currently required, but I don't see anything to be overly concerned about. Generally speaking, most technical indicators are oversold on commodity index monthly charts, but a little overbought on the weekly charts. They are generally "almost oversold" on the daily charts. Emotionally, that's a very tough situation for investors. Commodities can rally a bit now, but they are unlikely to begin a fresh sustained intermediate trend higher until the weekly chart indicators approach oversold levels. Please click here now. That's the daily GDXJ chart. The stokeillator lead line is at 25, and the price is near the main uptrend line. A rally seems imminent. Most investors in the gold community are junior stock enthusiasts. The good news is that even if GDXJ fails to rally significantly, many individual issues should bounce nicely higher. Once tomorrow's option expiry day is out of the way, and physical dealers in India are back in the market, the current price volatility should lessen. The gold market is probably just days (and maybe just hours) away from regaining the "steady as she goes" type of price action that it exhibited on the rally from $1180 to $1290! Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I'll send you my free "Yellowcakes Versus Silver" report. Some analysts believe that uranium stocks could outperform all market sectors in 2014, while others believe silver stocks are the better play. I'll show you why I own both sectors, and which stocks I'm focused on now! | ||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Analysis- March 19, 2014 - DailyForex.com Posted: 19 Mar 2014 12:27 AM PDT
By: DailyForex.com Gold prices settled lower yesterday, extending losses to second straight session, as easing fears of a wider conflict stemming from Russia and Ukraine dented the previous metal's safe-haven appeal. The American dollar was also supported by better than expected U.S. housing data. The Commerce Department's report showed that building permits climbed 7.7% to a 1.02 million pace in February. In the meantime, the major stock markets are recovering and that is soaring the demand for disaster insurance. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart remains bearish as the pair trades below the Ichimoku cloud and because of that, I still think that there will be significant resistance levels ahead and breaking through these barriers will not be so easy. Although Monday's bearish engulfing pattern supports this theory, further confirmation is required to say that the trend is about to reverse. The Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two-day meeting today and until the announcement gold prices will probably continue to respect the ascending channel. That means the 1350 level where the top of the Ichimoku cloud (4-hour chart) and the bottom line of the channel reside will be supportive in the short term. If this level remains intact and the XAU/USD pair starts to climb, the first challenge will be waiting the bulls at the 1365 level. If the bulls manage to break and hold above 1365, then we could see a test of the 1376 resistance level. If prices drop below 1346, there is a strong possibility that the market will continue to retreat and head towards the 1333/0 area. A daily close below 1330 would shift things to the bears and increase speculative selling pressure. |
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