27 March 2014 - China bank hit by multi-day cash run |
- 27 March 2014 - China bank hit by multi-day cash run
- 27 March 2014 - Philippine Peso Slump Amid Surplus Shows Smuggling Risk: Economy
- 26 March 2014 - Harga Emas Flat Pasca Laporan Anjloknya Data Perumahan AS
- 26 March 2014 - Iraq Buys $1.56 Bln of Gold, Biggest Purchase in 3 Years
- 26 March 2014 - 黄金是今年以来表现最好的资产
- 26 March 2014 - China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Increase on Import Quotas
| 27 March 2014 - China bank hit by multi-day cash run Posted: 27 Mar 2014 12:44 AM PDT From:http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/27/news/economy/china-bank-run/ By Sophia Yan @sophia_yan March 27, 2014 The details of the bank run, which took place in a coastal province north of Shanghai and lasted at least three days, were reported by state media. Customers were worried their savings would be lost -- a very real concern in China, which has no official insurance system to protect bank deposits. The panic was so widespread that the bank placed stacks of cash in bank teller windows to reassure customers that it had enough funds to meet demand. A Reuters journalist reported from the scene that the bank was staying open 24-hours a day, and that the cash needed to satisfy hundreds of waiting depositors was being trucked in by armored car. Local government officials responded to the bank run in a video statement that sought to reassure customers that their money was safe. The China Banking Association issued a similar statement that expressed confidence in the bank's financial health, and warned that rumor mongers would be held legally accountable. The Sheyang county governor also said the People's Bank of China would protect depositors, although the central bank hasn't publicly addressed the situation. In a pinch, the central bank could tap a credit facility for rural banks that was established in January. Related story: China's high wire act on failing companies Analysts said the episode highlights the need for deposit insurance in China, a reform that is on Beijing's to-do list. Doing so should give depositors greater confidence, and help prevent future bank runs. The government is widely expected to begin work on the issue this year as it seeks to implement financial and economic reforms. In the meantime, it appears that the immediate risks from this week's run are contained. "We believe the government will not allow deposit-taking institutions to fail, so this incident will likely be resolved soon without significant repercussions on the financial system," said Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Japanese brokerage Nomura. UBS economist Wang Tao has before called deposit insurance a "prerequisite" for a more market-oriented economy that would include flexible interest rates. A "crisis resolution mechanism will also lay the foundation for allowing more credit defaults and exit of small financial institutions," she said. Attempts to contact the bank Thursday were unsuccessful, but it appeared the incident may have run its course -- with only one real victim. Local police said in a social media post that they had "captured" the suspected gossipmonger on Wednesday night. Source:http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/27/news/economy/china-bank-run/ |
| 27 March 2014 - Philippine Peso Slump Amid Surplus Shows Smuggling Risk: Economy Posted: 26 Mar 2014 08:37 PM PDT By Karl Lester M. Yap Mar 27, 2014 9:39 AM GMT+0800 The Philippine peso's failure to strengthen in the face of data showing a widening current-account surplus and an upgraded credit rating has stoked concern that imports are being underreported due to smuggling. Philippine import data may have been understated since as early as 2007, partly because of smuggling, undermining the strength of the nation's current-account surplus and the peso, Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG said in recent reports. There are sizable differences between official import figures reported by the Philippines and exports recorded by some of its trading partners including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, according to Credit Suisse. "I wouldn't be surprised if the current account could fall into a deficit in two to three years if the trajectory of trade gaps continues," said Michael Wan, a Singapore-based economist at Credit Suisse. "That could be a potential trigger, and the peso would be less resilient to risks like portfolio outflows." The discrepancies underscore doubts with the trade and current-account data and highlights challenges facing President Benigno Aquino, who has criticized the Bureau of Customs for revenue lost to smuggling and unveiled measures to limit corruption within the agency. In the past 12 months, the peso has dropped 9.3 percent against the dollar, compared with a 9.6 percent decline for the Indian rupee. India had a record $88 billion deficit in the fiscal year through March 2013, compared with a reported $9.4 billion surplus for the Philippines last year. Sacred Cows Philippine import data are sourced from the customs bureau, National Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said yesterday. In response to a question about discrepancies in the figures, Customs Commissioner Sunny Sevilla told Bloomberg yesterday: "We are committed to eradicating smuggling and corruption. There are no friends nor sacred cows. Everyone will be held accountable." While trade-data differences occur in other nations, the gaps in the Philippine numbers are sizable compared to countries such as Thailand, and have been widening since 2007 for some of its trading partners including Japan, Wan said in a report this month. Deutsche Bank estimates the Philippines has posted a current-account deficit since 2012, contrary to the surpluses officially reported for at least eight years. "Our findings suggest that the Philippines' current-account balance may not be as strong as it seems and that the peso is not as resilient to sudden shifts in investor sentiment as we used to believe," Diana del Rosario, a Singapore-based economist at Deutsche Bank, said in the report. Under Pressure The "peso underperformed most of its current-account surplus peers last year and behaved more in line with those in deficit," del Rosario said, adding that the currency may remain under pressure as capital flows out of emerging markets to developed economies. The Philippine central bank, in a response to the Deutsche Bank report, was cited by Deutsche Bank as saying that "the current account is expected to continue to post an appreciable surplus and the recent volatility in the country's exchange rate has been mainly due to negative market sentiment." The central bank, which releases current-account data, didn't reply to Bloomberg e-mails and text messages seeking comment, ahead of a monetary policy meeting today. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will probably hold its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 3.5 percent today, according to 13 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Similar Threat As the prospect of reduced U.S. monetary stimulus spurred outflows from emerging markets, Indonesia's rupiah lost 21 percent last year to become Asia's worst-performing currency after the nation's current-account deficit widened to a record. A similar threat hangs over the Philippines as the U.S. Federal Reserve tapers this year, even with the BSP forecasting a $10.4 billion current-account surplus this year. Peso forwards will probably weaken to 45.2 per dollar in the fourth quarter from 44.8 now, according to Bloomberg surveys. The current account, which measures trade and financial flows including interest and dividend payments, is used by investors to gauge a nation's resilience to a crisis. Japan's currency typically strengthens during times of stress, given the nation's persistent current-account surplus. Philippine imports rose 21.8 percent in January from a year earlier, data showed this week, the fastest pace in three years. Foreign-exchange reserves climbed to $80.5 billion in February from a revised $79.4 billion the previous month. Foregone Revenue President Aquino in July 2013 criticized customs officials for "heedlessly permitting" smuggling that leads to more than 200 billion pesos ($4.4 billion) in foregone revenue annually. The Philippine government has lost at least $19.3 billion since 1990 in tax revenue due to evasion of customs duties through under-invoicing of imports, Washington-based Global Financial Integrity said in a February report. The customs bureau, which collects about 20 percent of government revenue, has missed its annual goal since at least 2010. Smuggling of some agricultural commodities including rice and sugar totaled $2.5 billion from 1986 to 2009, according to a report from the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture published this year. Former Philippine Commissioner Ruffy Biazon said on Dec. 2 he was quitting after being named by Justice Secretary Leila de Lima among former lawmakers who may face graft charges. Since taking office in December, Sevilla has suspended permits of 70 companies and 45 brokers for violating rules on providing detailed information of goods they imported. It was the "first time in recent history" that so many were suspended, said the bureau, which also investigated 65 of its employees for their alleged involvement in rice smuggling. 'Difficult' Challenge "Curbing smuggling will be one of Aquino's difficult challenges," said Credit Suisse's Wan. "Given recent moves by the government against smuggling I am more confident, but it's not something that can be changed overnight." The Philippine economy grew 7.2 percent last year and 6.8 percent in 2012. The nation last year received investment-grade scores for the first time from Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. The country's current-account surplus this year may be 3.25 percent of its gross domestic product, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. Fitch said this week external finances remain a key rating strength for the Philippines. While the official current-account surplus data may be inflated, the overestimation won't be large and wouldn't reverse the surplus into a deficit, New York-based GlobalSource Partners said in a report this month, citing an IMF staff estimate last year that said unregistered remittances are about half of officially recorded transfers. "Investors recognize a limited upside for the peso," said Alan Cayetano, head of foreign-exchange trading at Bank of the Philippine Islands in Manila. The smuggling and lack of infrastructure improvements aren't helping, he said, and "questions raised recently on the accuracy of trade data and current-account surplus are adding to the negative tone." |
| 26 March 2014 - Harga Emas Flat Pasca Laporan Anjloknya Data Perumahan AS Posted: 26 Mar 2014 07:48 PM PDT 26 MAR 2014 09:12 DIBACA:209 SUMBER: SFN Harga emas terpantau flat di sesi perdagangan Asia pada hari Rabu (26/03). Hal tersebut akibat lemahnya support pada prospek pertumbuhan sehubungan dengan wacana kenaikan suku bunga AS tahun depan. Di divisi Comex New York, emas berjangka untuk pengiriman segera diperdagangkan pada $1,311.80 per troy ons atau naik tipis sebanyak 0.01%. Pada sesi overnight, harga berada pada level rendah $1,306.20 dan level tinggi $1,317.90. Pada tengah malam tadi, harga emas mengalami kenaikan lebih awal setelah Departemen Perdagangan melaporkan bahwa penjualan rumah baru anjlok pada Bulan Februari. Laporan tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa masih sektor perumahan masih harus berjuang menghadapi hambatan. Penjualan rumah baru anjlok sebanyak 3.3% pada bulan Februari menjadi 440,000 unit. Level tersebut merupakan yang terendah sejak akhir September. Tetapi, penurunan itu masih lebih baik daripada ekspektasi analis yang menyebutkan bahwa kemerosotan akan mencapai 4.9%. Selain itu, isu Ukraina masih tak bisa dilepaskan sebagai faktor yang mempengaruhi harga emas. Presiden Barrack Obama mendesak Rusia untuk segera meredakan krisis di Ukraina. Jika tidak, Rusia terancam akan menghadapi sanksi yang lebih berat, terlebih apabila Negara Pimpinan Putin tersebut berani melanggar perbatasan Ukraina lebih jauh lagi pasca pencaplokn Crimea. Harga emas sempat jatuh 3.1 persen pekan lalu setelah Presiden The Fed, Janet Yellen, mengatakn bahwa suku bungan kemungkinan akan dinaikkan di awal 2015. |
| 26 March 2014 - Iraq Buys $1.56 Bln of Gold, Biggest Purchase in 3 Years Posted: 26 Mar 2014 07:47 PM PDT From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-25/iraq-buys-1-56-bln-of-gold-biggest-purchase-in-3-years.html By Khalid Al-Ansary and Nicholas Larkin Mar 25, 2014 11:14 PM GMT+0800 Iraq bought 36 metric tons of gold this month valued at about $1.56 billion in the largest purchase by a nation in three years. The Central Bank of Iraq acquired the metal to help stabilize the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, it said in an e-mailed statement. The country held about 29.8 tons of bullion as of August, according to data on the International Monetary Fund's website. The latest addition was the biggest since Mexico bought 78.5 tons in March 2011. While nations purchased about 544 tons in 2012 in the largest accumulation in about five decades, acquisitions slowed to 369 tons last year, according to the London-based World Gold Council. Countries will continue buying amounts in the "hundreds" of tons, the producer-funded council said in February. Bullion prices rebounded 9.1 percent since December, after slumping the most since 1981 last year as demand for a store of value waned. "Gold is quite attractive to central bankers," Mark O'Byrne, a director in Dublin at brokerage GoldCore Ltd., which has more than $200 million in bullion under management, said today by phone. "They see it as an important asset diversification and a safe-haven element within foreign-exchange reserves." Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,314.77 an ounce in London, after sliding 28 percent last year. It reached a record $1,921.15 in September 2011. Prices averaged $1,344.71 so far this month, valuing Iraq's purchase at about $1.56 billion. Iraq's Reserves Adding the amount Iraq said it bought in March to its reported holding in August would make it the 40th-largest holder by country, according to the WGC. The nation has no plans to sell metal from its reserves, Muneer Omran, director general of investments at the central bank, said in an interview in Dubai in January. Bullion had accounted for less than 2 percent of the nation's total reserves, compared with about 70 percent for the U.S. and Germany, the biggest holders. "Demand from the likes of Iraq is important," GoldCore's O'Byrne said. "It doesn't necessarily mean it will lead to higher gold prices per se, but it definitely means that there's an ongoing demand from central banks that is likely to continue" and should support prices, he said. Mexico owns about 123 tons of the metal, according to the WGC. Turkey's reserves, at about 488.6 tons now, expanded as much as 44.7 tons in July 2012. Bullion has been added to its balance sheet as a result of accepting gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products reached 1,769.6 tons yesterday, the highest this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Assets fell to 1,735.4 tons last month, the lowest level since October 2009. Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-25/iraq-buys-1-56-bln-of-gold-biggest-purchase-in-3-years.html |
| 26 March 2014 - 黄金是今年以来表现最好的资产 Posted: 26 Mar 2014 07:44 PM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-03-26/163374542.html 2014年03月26日07:39 来源：中国黄金网 作者：覃维桓 今年以来，截至3月21日，金价已经上涨了11%，是各类资产中表现最好的。例如美国股市的标普指数，虽然今年还不断创出新高，但是只上涨了1%左右。大宗商品铜下跌了12%，纽约原油只上涨了0.89%。 金价为什么会上涨呢？有人归因于乌克兰局势紧张。的确，乌克兰局势在关键的时候推了金价一把。 当1月底至2月初，在经过了将近一个月的上涨之后，金价正有可能出现回落之时，乌克兰局势紧张加剧，再次推动金价上了一个台阶。 但是，在乌克兰事件出来之前，金价就已经在上涨了。在一个月的时间里，金价就上涨了70美元/盎司。主要是因为美国天气不好，导致美国经济数据不佳。 所以有不少人认为，到春天回暖之后，美国经济将会出现大幅度好转，到时金价将将会出现下跌，甚至创出新低。 当然，简单来说，今年金价上涨是因为去年下跌得太多了。去年国际金价下跌了29%，而标普指数上涨了31%。那么，跌多了就要涨，涨多了就会跌，也是很自然的事。 但是从根本上来说，金价的涨跌还是取决于供应和需求。 由于今年中国的实金需求始终保持旺盛势头，而对印度减少黄金进口限制的预期始终存在。供应方面，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的赎回大幅减少，再也没有出现去年那样的持续大量减持黄金，一增一减也就使得金价难以真正下跌。 现在面临的问题是：第二季度以后，美国经济是否能够真正复苏，从而带动美元走强，抑制金价？ 我觉得这种可能性虽然有，但并不是太大。因为美国如果继续收紧货币政策，甚至提高利率，受影响最大的是股市，而一旦股市下跌，就会直接影响消费，进而影响经济发展。因为美国股市上涨的一个重要原因就是公司用低息贷款回购股票，如果低息不存在，这种回购也就会停止。而股市下跌会使得消费者手中可支配的资金减少，从而减少消费。 美国股市这几年已经上涨了两倍多，长期处于高位运行状态，很难保证还会有去年那样的强势走势；而金价在经过去年的狂跌之后，已经开始恢复元气，今年以来的走势就是证明。 尽管黄金市场的空头还想继续打压，甚至屡屡表示金价还会创出新低，一些投行也在调低对金价的预期。但我想其操作难度很大。在1200美元/盎司下方，每下跌50~100美元，阻力会成倍增加，我想空头总不会有意砸出底部，让多头建仓吧。 |
| 26 March 2014 - China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Increase on Import Quotas Posted: 26 Mar 2014 07:42 PM PDT By Bloomberg News Mar 25, 2014 6:24 PM GMT+0800 China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in February amid increasing demand and as the country allowed more banks to import the precious metal. Net imports totaled 109.2 metric tons last month, compared with 83.6 tons in January and 60.9 tons a year earlier, according to calculations by Bloomberg News based on data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department today. Exports to Hong Kong from China fell to 15.8 tons in February from 19 tons in January, the Statistics Department said in a separate statement. Mainland China doesn't publish such data. Bullion is up 9.1 percent in 2014 on rising consumption in Asia and as emerging-market turmoil and signs the U.S. recovery may be faltering boost haven demand. China overtook India as the largest user last year as the biggest price drop in more than three decades spurred purchases, the World Gold Council said last month. China granted licenses for importing gold to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., HSBC Holdings Plc and China Everbright Bank Co., Reuters reported in January. "Imports were boosted by more participants in the market," said Duan Shihua, a partner at Shanghai Leading Investment Management Co. "Some buyers may be replenishing inventory after robust sales during the Lunar New Year." Imports were underpinned by demand from traders using bullion purchases in trade financing deals to obtain short-term bank credit, said Liu Xu, precious metals analyst at Capital Futures Co. in Beijing. Record Consumption "Policy makers are seeking to discourage the accumulation of debt in China, leading to tight money conditions and fueling such deals as gold imports are being used for short-term financing," Liu said. China consumed a record 1,066 tons last year as demand for bars, coins and jewelry jumped 32 percent, the WGC said last month. Gold holdings in exchange-traded products climbed 6.9 percent in February, the first increase in 14 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They declined last year for the first time since the product was introduced in 2003. Bullion for immediate delivery in London rose 0.5 percent to $1,315.21 an ounce at 5:27 p.m. Beijing time. Bullion of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange advanced 6.6 percent in February, posting the second monthly gain. Mainland Chinese buyers purchased a total 125 tons in February, including scrap, compared with 102.6 tons in January and 97.1 tons a year earlier, data from the Hong Kong government showed. |
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