5 March 2014 - Gold prices hold near 4-month high amid Ukraine crisis |
- 5 March 2014 - Gold prices hold near 4-month high amid Ukraine crisis
- 5 March 2014 - China Now Biggest Driver of Gold Prices, HSBC Says
- 5 March 2014 - 东欧局势远未结束 黄金避险买盘定将卷土重来
- 4 March 2014 - Gold Bulls Run for $1,400 as Turmoil in Ukraine Spurs Demand
- 4 March 2014 - 乌克兰局势持续发酵 现货黄金3月3日大涨
| 5 March 2014 - Gold prices hold near 4-month high amid Ukraine crisis Posted: 05 Mar 2014 03:51 AM PST Reuters, Singapore Gold held near its strongest level in four months on Tuesday after Russia's military intervention in Ukraine prompted safe-haven buying as investors trimmed assets perceived as riskier such as equities. But bullion may need help from the physical market as it struggles to sustain gains after prices broke a key resistance of $1,350 an ounce. The metal has risen more than 12 percent this year, having shed 28 percent in 2013 on the prospect of a global economic recovery. Cash gold was little changed at $1,350.04 an ounce by 0306 GMT after rising 2 percent to touch $1,354.80 on Monday, its strongest level since late October. "I think investors may be pretty cautious. They already bought gold yesterday and the day before. Jewelers came to buy very small amounts of gold today," Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong "Sentiment is of course a little bit bullish from here," said Leung, referring to support from the escalating tensions in Ukraine. U.S. gold was steady at $1,350.80 ounce. President Barack Obama met for over two hours on Monday with his national security advisers and discussed ways the United States and its allies could "further isolate" Russia over its military intervention in Ukraine, a White House official said. Asian shares were on the defensive as tensions over Ukraine showed no sign of abating, with Russia tightening its grip on Crimea while the West sought measures to deter Moscow. The physical gold market saw a mixture of buying and selling. Premiums for gold bars in Hong Kong were quoted at $1 to $1.30 cents to the spot London prices, little changed from last week. But weakening differentials between 99.99 percent purity gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and cash gold were likely to crimp demand from China. "We probably won't be able to replicate last year's record year. There was a rush in April when prices dropped $200. But it was more like a frenzy, bargain hunting by people who had no clear ideas about the gold market," said Joyce Liu, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "The current price premiums also show that consumer demand is tapering." Dealers in Singapore noted selling, which kept premiums for gold bars unchanged at 80 cents to the spot London prices. India has started to make physical checks of gold stocks held by wholesalers to ensure inventories match the amount imported by banks and state-run traders, an industry association said, as the country steps up efforts to halt smuggling. |
| 5 March 2014 - China Now Biggest Driver of Gold Prices, HSBC Says Posted: 05 Mar 2014 03:49 AM PST From:http://bullionbulletin.in/more_goldnews.aspx?pageid=Dtgold_030514 March 4, 2014 "We would argue that physical demand trends in the emerging world will largely define gold's price movements this year," HSBC analysts James Steel and Howard Wen said in a research note.China alone can take up the equivalent of half of the global gold mine output, while a possible recovery in Indian demand could also act as a boost for the yellow metal as long as the Indian authorities reduce import tariffs on gold. Investment demand, typically coming from gold exchange-traded funds, had long been considered the sole reason behind the gold's decade-long bull run. Hedge funds and money managers poured money into gold ETFs in anticipation of inflation amid loose global monetary policy.But a reversal of that trade on expectations of a winding-down of the bond buying program by the Federal Reserve which saw macro hedge-funds and other investors liquidate 881 tons of gold from ETF holdings last year, reducing total holdings by one-third from their peak at end-2012. Nonetheless, the yellow metal wasn't burned–apart from the tradition of jewelry gift-giving, the young generation in the Asian nation were quietly snapping up gold out of concern of their country's property market and the health of the economy.And that helped provide a floor to falling gold prices last year (down nearly 30% on year), and make up for the outflows of gold ETFs. HSBC says it expects China to remain the world's largest importer, consumer and producer of gold this year.To be sure, headwinds exist – economists have warned about deflation risks globally as economic growth in developed markets, such as the U.S. and Europe, has yet to gather steam. That would imply "lower gold prices than would otherwise be the case, as falling prices removes the need to own gold as an inflation hedge," the house says."Gold prices may be influenced based on how well the Fed manages this transition," it adds.A stronger U.S. dollar against its rivals, such as euro, may also weigh on gold prices as they are denominated in the greenback and will therefore look less appealing for other currency holders. Source:http://bullionbulletin.in/more_goldnews.aspx?pageid=Dtgold_030514 |
| 5 March 2014 - 东欧局势远未结束 黄金避险买盘定将卷土重来 Posted: 05 Mar 2014 03:46 AM PST From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-03-05/162728054.html 2014年03月05日08:28 来源：FX168 现货黄金周二(3月4日)纽约时段盘初一度触及1331.20美元/盎司日低，随后微幅反弹至1335美元附近，整体大跌逾1%，因日内俄罗斯总理普京下令演习部队返回基地，导致避险情绪陡然降温。然而，分析师对此表示，乌克兰动荡局势还远未结束，而黄金避险买盘必定会在未来卷土重来，推动金价大涨。 现货黄金周二(3月4日)纽约时段盘初一度触及1331.20美元/盎司日低，随后微幅反弹至1335美元附近，整体大跌逾1%，因日内俄罗斯总理普京下令演习部队返回基地，导致避险情绪陡然降温。然而，分析师对此表示，乌克兰动荡局势还远未结束，而黄金避险买盘必定会在未来卷土重来，推动金价大涨。 俄罗斯新闻社引用克里姆林宫发言人的话称，总统普京(Vladimir Putin)已经命令演习部队返回基地。克里姆林宫此前表示，位于乌克兰边境地带的军事演习与乌克兰当前的局势无关。 白宫官员周二表示，因俄罗斯军事干涉乌克兰，美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)周一与国家安全顾问会晤了两个小时，商讨美国及其盟友进一步孤立俄罗斯的事宜。 受俄罗斯撤军影响，周二全球股市普遍大幅反弹，俄罗斯股市日内反弹逾6%，欧洲方面英国富时100指数大涨1.64%，法国CAC40指数大涨2.28%，德国DAX30指数大涨2.19%；美国方面标普500指数反弹1.29%，纳指反弹1.69%，道指反弹逾1%。 SEB Commodity Research首席商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop称，"由于俄罗斯方面宣布撤军，意味着乌克兰及其克里米亚半岛局势暂时不会继续升级，因此隔夜下跌的风险资产日内都有所反弹，而金价却遭遇短期的获利了结打压下挫。" 不过Schieldrop强调，尽管局势有所缓解，但危机远没有结束。他表示，"我不认为乌克兰事件已经步入尾声，事实上该事件充满了诸多变数，相信等到局势再度升温时，黄金的避险买盘还会卷土重来。" 另外，Schieldrop对日内黄金市场买盘快速下滑的现象表示惊讶，其称，"以我个人观点来看，现在远未到放松的时候。从乌克兰事件中不难发现，俄罗斯与欧洲以及美国的关系已经开始紧张起来，这可能就是危机再度点燃的预警。" Price Futures Group高级市场分析师Phil Flynn称，"绝对不要低估普金，此前每当市场尝试去了解他时，他最后的做法总会令市场出乎意料。" Flynn指出，"当前投资者只不过是奉行'危机事件前头脑冷静，以免蒙受巨大损失'的金字格言，暂时获利平仓。如果未来俄罗斯遭到经济制裁，欧洲也会受到波及，因为欧洲需依靠俄罗斯的石油及天然气进口，最终导致局势再度恶化。" Flynn推测乌克兰问题短期还会再度升温，并推动贵金属录得第二次大幅上涨。 技术面上，三菱集团(Mitsubishi)贵金属策略师Jonathan Butler表示，"隔夜金价曾上涨至1350美元的四个月高位，而位置目前已转化为关键的阻力。相信未来几个交易日交易商将密切关注金价是否会再次上探1350一线。如果是，这将确认金价的上行趋势，反之亦然。" 与此同时，Flynn认为金价总体的上扬趋势仍保持完好，其称，"当前黄金市场在经历短期大涨后的回调是良性的，预计金价的下个阻力为在1360美元上方，该位置是去年10月末的高位。" 他最后补充道，"近期公布的美国一系列经济数据持续走软，这之中可能有受天气的影响，但也可能不是。因此未来市场仍会对美国经济前景抱有不确定性，加之乌克兰地缘政治风险以及新兴市场货币贬值的压力，金价将受到支撑继续上扬。" |
| 4 March 2014 - Gold Bulls Run for $1,400 as Turmoil in Ukraine Spurs Demand Posted: 04 Mar 2014 08:13 PM PST Gold traders are setting their sights on $1,400 an ounce, a price not reached since September, as the worst standoff between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War increases demand for the metal as a haven. The most-traded bullion option on the Comex yesterday was a call giving owners the right to buy at $1,400 by April, with an estimated 4,547 lots changing hands. That's almost double the amount of the next most-active option and compares with an average volume of 427 in the past month. Investors are once again flocking to the precious metal, leaving prices poised for the biggest quarterly gain since 2007. Russia's growing military presence in Ukraine is the latest sign of global turmoil fueling the rally after slowing U.S. economic growth and slumps in emerging-market currencies. Money managers are the most bullish on gold in 14 months, government data show. Bullion tumbled 28 percent in 2013, the biggest drop since 1981. "Worries about a possible conflict are very constructive for gold, and we are seeing momentum traders come in," Quincy Krosby, a market strategist for Newark, New Jersey-based Prudential Financial Inc., which oversees more than $1 trillion of assets, said in a telephone interview. "The mixed economic numbers out of the U.S. and concerns about slowdown in other parts of the world have boosted demand for a safe-haven asset." Gold futures for April delivery gained 2.2 percent yesterday to $1,350.30 on the Comex, after touching $1,355, the highest since October. The contract dropped 1.3 percent to $1,332.60 at 8:30 a.m. in New York today. The April $1,400 call surged 240 percent yesterday to $5.10. 2014 Rally Bullion jumped 11 percent this year, the third-biggest gain among the Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities, which climbed 3.4 percent. Arabica coffee surged 73 percent in New York, while hogs gained 26 percent in Chicago. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products rose 6.9 metric tons to 1,746 tons in February, the first monthly gain since December 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, compared with the government's first estimate of 3.2 percent issued in January, the Commerce Department said Feb. 28. Gold plunged into a bear market in April as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid an equity rally and muted inflation. Last year, ETP assets dropped 33 percent, wiping $73.4 billion from the value of the funds. Prices also fell as the Federal Reserve prepared to slow the pace of monetary stimulus. The central bank cut monthly bond purchases in December and January by $10 billion, leaving purchases at $65 billion. 'Risk-Off Day' "We saw a classic risk-off day, with money moving towards all safe-haven assets," Michael Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $250 million at New York-based Pension Partners LLC, said in a telephone interview. "Once the panic subsides, we may see gold become a bit vulnerable and lose some ground." Analysts are split on the outlook for prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month reiterated its forecast for the metal to reach $1,050 by the end of the year. Westpac Banking Corp. sees bullion dropping to $1,011 in December. UBS AG said Feb. 19 that the commodity has "started to shed its stigma" and increased its 2014 forecast to $1,300 from $1,200. Gold surged 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system to boost growth. Prices rose to an all-time high of $1,923.70 in September 2011. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the central bank is "open to reconsidering" the pace of cutbacks in asset purchases should the economy weaken. Policy makers next meet March 18-19. Hedge Funds Hedge funds and other money managers boosted their gold net-long position, or bullish bets, by 25 percent to 113,911 contracts in the week to Feb. 25, the highest since December 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. "The fundamentals are very supportive, and gold looks good technically as well," Bill O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, said in a telephone interview. "If the market is able to hold on to its gains in the next few sessions, we could rise to $1,400." |
| 4 March 2014 - 乌克兰局势持续发酵 现货黄金3月3日大涨 Posted: 04 Mar 2014 08:10 PM PST From:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140304/084618396627.shtml 2014年03月04日 08:46 生意社 生意社03月04日讯 因3月3日俄罗斯黑海舰队向驻克里米亚的乌克兰军队发出最后警告，令整个局势再度升温，刺激黄金(1337.70, -0.20, -0.01%)的避险买盘，同时全球股市普遍下滑，金价受支撑大涨近2%。现货黄金收涨。现货黄金上涨24.60美元，涨幅1.86%，报1350.30美元/盎司。 周一(3月3日)走势表述： 国际现货黄金亚太时段开盘跳涨逾10美元，随后加速上行1350美元关口。欧洲时段盘初，现货黄金小幅回落至1343美元附近，但之后再度震荡上行。纽约时段盘初，现货黄金扩大涨幅，并刷新1354.70美元/盎司的四个月高位，最终在1350美元上方企稳。 现货黄金最高触及1354.70美元/盎司，最低下探1325.89美元/盎司，较上一个交易日开盘价1325.70美元/盎司上涨24.60美元，涨幅1.86%，报1350.30美元/盎司。 1.周一(3月3日)国际文传电讯(Interfax)援引乌克兰国防部消息人士的消息称，俄罗斯黑海舰队向驻克里米亚(Crimea)的乌克兰军队发出最后警告。黑海舰队要求乌方军队在3月4日上午5点(GMT时间03:00)前投降，否则乌克兰军队可能有被军事打击的可能。 2.美国期货协会(CFTC)公布的数据显示，截止2月25日当周，投资者持有的黄金期货和期权净多头头寸上升了25.0%至113，911手。 1.美国商务部(DOC)3月3日公布的数据显示，1月个人消费支出月率增长0.4%，预期增长0.2%，前值修正为增长0.1%，初值增长0.4%。 2.数据编撰机构Markit3月3日公布的一行业调查报告显示，美国2月Markit制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)终值升至57.1，预期56.6，初值56.7。 3.美国供应管理协会(ISM)3月3日发布报告称，美国2月ISM制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为53.2，预期为52.0，1月该数据为51.3。 法国外贸银行(Natixis)的商品研究主管Nic Brown认为尽管近期金价还有更大的上涨空间，但对于目前水平，投资者们应该谨慎，并且不要对受天气影响的经济有太多解读。Brown认为，金价有潜力在近期上涨到1400美元/盎司，但该行的观点是黄金过分扩张，会随着改善的经济数据而有所修正。 新加坡Phillip期货投资分析师Joyce Liu表示，"因局势动荡，黄金短期受到支撑。我正在关注金价是否会突破去年10月份触及的高点1361。如果该价位告破，这将极大地鼓舞更多的买家进入市场，因为突破该阻力意味着趋势有改变的潜力。需要密切关注金价，看看它能否继续上升并收于该水平上方。" 花旗银行(Citi)研究团队3月3日宣布将2014年黄金均价预估上调4%，至1303美元/盎司。花旗分析师D.Wilson周末曾发布报告预测，2014年一季度金价的目标在1280美元/盎司，而四季度将上扬至1320美元/盎司。 (文章来源：凤凰财经) Source:http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20140304/084618396627.shtml |
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