27 November 2013 - Jay Taylor:通缩并不会威胁金价,2014年或上涨 |
- 27 November 2013 - Jay Taylor:通缩并不会威胁金价,2014年或上涨
- 27 November 2013 - Chow Tai Fook Profit Almost Doubles on Higher Gold Demand
- 27 November 2013 - U.S. Bombers Fly Through China Air Zone in Boost for Ally Japan
- 27 November 2013 - London Gold Fix Calls Draw Scrutiny Amid Heavy Trading
| 27 November 2013 - Jay Taylor:通缩并不会威胁金价,2014年或上涨 Posted: 27 Nov 2013 02:49 AM PST From:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-11-27/160081582.html 近日Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks 的编辑Jay Taylor接受The Gold Report的采访，发表了对黄金的看法。 Taylor认为接下去金价的走势比起50/50或涨或跌要好一些，目前正在为下一波上涨建立基础。他说："真正的问题是金价会涨到比1900美元/盎司高多少？这取决于经济形势和市场情绪。" 在提到白银时，Taylor认为白银价格走势会跟随黄金，但会有更大延伸，"因为白银会有更多的货币成分。目前白银需求主要来自工业。由于白银价格较金价更被低估，因此上涨幅度会更大。" 尽管2013年对黄金来说是相当糟糕的一年，但Taylor认为这也提供了很大的机会。 "金价已经连续上涨了10年，2013年是10年来黄金价格第一次下跌，会是一个长期牛市中的一个周期性熊市。上一次大牛市中，金价曾经从200美元/盎司下跌到100美元/盎司，再涨到850美元/盎司，这在2014年也是很有可能发生的，金价会有相似的大幅上涨。" Taylor认为通缩并不会威胁金价，他更关注的是像20世纪30年代那样的信贷紧缩。"这对黄金生产行业是非常利好的，可能带来金价大涨催化因素对主流资产可能是打击信心的因素。" Taylor认为一些黄金银行对黄金的投机行为带来了一些问题。这些银行的售出黄金对市场的信心带来影响，并且使得中国和其它金砖国家能够尽可能多地以低价买入黄金。"这些国家毫不掩饰他们想要看到美元国际储备货币的地位被取代。" Taylor说："手握现金的投资者应该注意目前处低价的黄金矿企股票。并且我认为人们仍然应该持有黄金和白银作为核心资产。" |
| 27 November 2013 - Chow Tai Fook Profit Almost Doubles on Higher Gold Demand Posted: 27 Nov 2013 01:29 AM PST Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd. (1929), the world's largest listed jewelry chain, forecast "steady" growth for the rest of the fiscal year after first-half profit almost doubled on a surge in Chinese demand for gold. Net income rose to HK$3.5 billion ($451.5 million) from HK$1.82 billion a year earlier for the six months ended Sept. 30, the company said in a stock-exchange statement yesterday. That was above the average estimate of HK$2.98 billion from five analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Retail sales of gold in China jumped between April and June as global bullion prices plunged, aiding Chow Tai Fook and smaller competitors such as Luk Fook Holdings International Ltd. (590) The Chinese economy is showing signs of resilience and demand for jewelry continues to be strong, the company said in its statement, citing government data. "We are still holding an optimistic attitude towards the market," said Hamilton Cheng, finance director of Chow Tai Fook, adding that it is too early to give a precise forecast for the rest of the year. The stock climbed 4.1 percent to HK$12.80 as of 9:36 a.m. local time. The benchmark Hang Seng Index lost 0.07 percent. Sales jumped 49 percent during the six-month period to HK$38 billion and rose 33 percent at stores open for at least a year. The company said it opened 118 new points of sale, which includes standalone stores and concessionaire counters, taking the total to 1,954 as of the end of September. Bullion for immediate delivery has dropped about 25 percent in Singapore this year. Second Half China's gross domestic product growth rebounded to 7.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier after a pace of 7.5 percent in the previous three months. Luk Fook earlier this month also said it expects first-half net income to increase "significantly" on higher sales of gold products and gem-set jewelry. Chow Tai Fook's second-half sales growth may be "softer" and same-store sales growth could slow to mid-to-low single digits, Catherine Lim, an analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., wrote in a report last month. Gold price movements could also swing the company's margin outlook, she wrote. "The gold rush now is not comparable with that in April, May and June," Kent Wong, managing director of Chow Tai Fook, told reporters in Hong Kong. "It's reasonable to see sales slowed but this is within our expectation. Gem sales have improved as customer confidence recovered." Chow Tai Fook forecasts capital expenditure of HK$1.5 billion for the rest of the year, Cheng said. Founded in 1929 in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, the jeweler was named after founder Chow Chi Yuen. "Tai Fook" means "big blessing" in Chinese. |
| 27 November 2013 - U.S. Bombers Fly Through China Air Zone in Boost for Ally Japan Posted: 26 Nov 2013 08:13 PM PST Two unarmed American B-52 bombers flew through disputed areas of the East China Sea covered by China's new air defense zone, a show of support for Japan as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks to expand his nation's military. China's creation of the zone on Nov. 23 may spur Abe to take a more hard-line stance as his government studies changing how it interprets the U.S.-imposed pacifist constitution to deploy the country's armed forces more freely. Abe is undertaking a review for a 10-year defense plan to be announced next month that may see Japan's government add ballistic missile defense ships and refueling planes. The Chinese move may also tighten the alliance between Japan and the U.S., which flew the bombers into the area yesterday. The planes spent less than an hour in the China-claimed zone as part of an annual training exercise, said a U.S. defense official who asked not to be named discussing the deployment. A Pentagon spokesman said Nov. 25 the U.S. won't change its flight operations to comply with the zone. "All it does is send a message that China's interest is throwing its weight around," Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo, said of the new Chinese zone. "China is acting the part of the regional bogeyman, which will put wind in the sails of Abe's national security agenda." China's announcement of the zone marked the latest escalation between the world's second and third-largest economies over the islands, known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. More than a year since Japan infuriated China by buying some of the islands, planes and ships from the two countries have frequently tailed each other in the area. China Imposition Abe said he was "very concerned" by the new zone, which overlaps with Japan's own identification zone in the East China Sea and where China said aircraft must now report flights and identify themselves. "It's extremely dangerous," he told parliament Nov. 25. Japan's government yesterday rejected the validity of the air defense zone and instructed domestic airlines not to submit flight plans to China. Japan can't accept China's "false" imposition of obligations on airlines, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters. "It struck me that it was a pretty ham-handed maneuver and because it was so ham-handed it is going to inflame passions in Tokyo, so it does plays into Abe's hands," said Jeffrey Lewis, a director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California. "It will coalesce public opinion around his vision of foreign and defense policy," Lewis said. Aircraft Carrier China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, departed for its first cross-sea area training in the South China Sea, the official Xinhua News Agency said Nov. 26. China is embroiled in a separate territorial dispute in those waters with countries such as the Philippines. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Japan Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida spoke for 20 minutes by phone last night. The two both described China's actions as "dangerous," Japan's Foreign Ministry said in an e-mailed message. Vice President Joe Biden is scheduled to travel to China, South Korea and Japan next week and President Barack Obama plans to take a postponed trip to Asia in April. The U.S. and Japan last month set out a road map for their alliance over the next 20 years, agreeing to revise the guidelines for defense cooperation for the first time since 1997. The U.S. is compelled to come to Japan's aid in the event of a conflict. Backing Down "Abe would probably like to go eyeball-to-eyeball with the Chinese, to try to back them down," Robert Kelly, a professor of political science at Pusan National University in South Korea, said in a phone interview. "He can't do that right now. Japan's just not militarily strong enough to do this alone." In October, an advisory panel called for a review of Japan's self-imposed curbs on arms exports and said the country's defense industry should become more competitive. It cited the rising influence of China, whose military spending increased 10.7 percent last year and 11 percent in 2011. The Yomiuri newspaper reported Nov. 22 that Japan will add refueling planes and introduce high-speed warships to its fleet to boost the security of its remote islands. Japan plans to increase the number of Aegis ballistic missile defense ships to eight from six, the paper said. Since Abe took office in December, the public has backed his approach of standing firm on the territorial dispute and tended to oppose his plan to permit Japan to defend allies. Asahi Poll A poll in the Asahi Shimbun published on Aug. 26 found 59 percent of respondents were against reinterpreting the constitution to allow collective self-defense. Abe's approval rating stood at 63 percent in a poll by the Nikkei newspaper conducted Nov. 22-24. "This will make Japanese public opinion vis a vis China more unfavorable, but it's already very unfavorable," said Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto. China's Defense Ministry said the military will take "defensive emergency measures" if aircraft don't comply with its demands when they enter the zone. Xinhua said Nov. 25 the zone "will not affect the freedom of flight over the East China Sea," citing China's ambassador to Japan, Cheng Yonghua. Other Countries South Korea is among the nations expressing concern over China's actions. "The matter of the air defense zone is another development that complicates already difficult situations" in East Asia, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung Se said today at a forum in Seoul. China's ambassador to Australia was called in Nov. 25 to explain the new zone. Ma Zhaoxu said in a statement today he rejected Australia's "erroneous remarks and required the latter to respect facts, do not take sides." The new zone may pressure Abe to make good on a vow made last month not to allow "any change in the current situation by force." Japan deployed fighter jets in late October after Chinese aircraft flew between southern Japanese islands without entering the country's airspace. "It forces Abe to take a firm response," said Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies in Honolulu. "He's not going to back down on something like this." |
| 27 November 2013 - London Gold Fix Calls Draw Scrutiny Amid Heavy Trading Posted: 26 Nov 2013 07:19 PM PST Every business day in London, five banks meet to set the price of gold in a ritual that dates back to 1919. Now, dealers and economists say knowledge gleaned on those calls could give some traders an unfair advantage when buying and selling the precious metal. The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority is scrutinizing how prices are set in the $20 trillion gold market, according to a person with knowledge of the review who asked not to be identified because the matter isn't public. The London fix, the benchmark rate used by mining companies, jewelers and central banks to buy, sell and value the metal, is published twice daily after a telephone call involving Barclays Plc (BARC), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Societe Generale SA. (GLE) The process, during which gold is bought and sold, can take from a few minutes to more than an hour. The participants also can trade the metal and its derivatives on the spot market and exchanges during the calls. Just after the fixing begins, trading erupts in gold derivatives, according to research published in September. Four traders interviewed by Bloomberg News said that's because dealers and their clients are using information from the talks to bet on the outcome. "Traders involved in this price-determining process have knowledge which, even for a short time, is superior to other people's knowledge," said Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Frankfurt-based precious-metals broker Degussa Goldhandel GmbH and a former economist at Barclays. "That is the great flaw of the London gold-fixing." Gold Capital The U.K. capital is the biggest center for gold trading in the world, according to the London Bullion Market Association, which said more than $33 billion changed hands there each day in 2012, exceeding the $29 billion of futures traded on Comex, the New York commodities exchange, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Financial instruments including cash-settled swaps and options are priced off the London fix, according to the LBMA website. In private meetings this year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates derivatives, discussed reviewing how gold prices are set, according to a person with knowledge of the talks. The FCA review is preliminary and not a formal investigation, another person said. The people wouldn't say what's being looked at or if regulators suspect wrongdoing. Participants on the London call can tell whether the price of gold is rising or falling within a minute or so, based on whether there are a large number of net buyers or sellers after the first round, according to gold traders, academics and investors interviewed by Bloomberg News. It's this feature that could allow dealers and others in receipt of the information to bet on the direction of the market with a high degree of certainty minutes before the fix is made public, they said. 'Trickles Down' "Information trickles down from the five banks, through to their clients and finally to the broader market," Andrew Caminschi, a lecturer at the University of Western Australia in Perth and co-author of a Sept. 2 paper on trading spikes around the London gold fix published online in the Journal of Futures Markets, said by phone. "In a world where trading advantage is measured in milliseconds, that has some value." |
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