Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: September is Nearly Always a Supremely <b>...</b> |
| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b>: September is Nearly Always a Supremely <b>...</b> Posted: 27 Aug 2014 03:31 PM PDT
Markets are all gearing down before the long US weekend. Labor Day is coming upon which, oddly enough, nobody labors. The quiet settled over silver and GOLD PRICES. Gold traded in a $7.30 range to end $1.90 (0.15%) lower at $1,281.90. Silver gained -- ho-hum -- 1.9 cents (0.1%) to 1940.5 cents. None of this says a durned thing. The GOLD PRICE punched into but couldn't close above its 200 DMA ($1,284.89). No moxie. The SILVER PRICE bounced up but remains glued to the downtrend line from August 2013 and can't pull away higher, not even to cross the 20 DMA at 1975c. Now oddly enough there are signs -- and no bigger than a cloud the size of a man's hand on the horizon -- of turning up. First, the RSI had reached "plumb over-sold" and has turned up. The Rate of Change has risen from "abysmal" to "lightening up", and the MACD histogram has waxed smaller and smaller while the MACD fast line is trying hard to curve up. Most likely nothing much will happen the rest of the week, but September is nearly always a supremely strong month for silver and gold prices. This is getting sort of funny. S&P500 makes a new high by -- 1/10 of a point. Yes, up 1/10 to 2,000.12. Actually traded sideways to lower most of the day, but began rallying after 3:00 to end barely higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't outshine the S&P500 much. Rose 15.31 (0.09%) to 17,122.01. This looks like wheel spinning at a top as fewer and fewer buyers participate. CLARITY, that's what we need, clarity of mind and purpose. We are sprayed daily by media firehoses that force our attention this way and that, but really only a few things are necessary, and only a few things forecast all the rest. Somebody told me once that the best commodity traders didn't read much news, but only paid attention to a few important indicators. Most of us don't have that clarity of mind. Mercy, I fall prey to the fog, too. As long as I've studied money and the monetary system, you'd think I'd have learned how to spell "inevitability." But my attention is diverted by the Fed's QE sideshow or a gold and silver correction or a stock market rise on manufactured money or some gaseous guru. No excuse for me. I understand that the central banking system is a scam, a fraud, a con game that will inevitably fail. I understand that over 50% of American income comes from federal and state and local spending. I recognize American imperial overstretch and remember how many empires have committed suicide the same way. Then I look at a six year economic crisis that won't let go of the economy and an economy that remains comatose, and I know how this will end. I know all the money is borrowed into existence, so the Fed cannot possibly stop inflating, or the whole system deflates and bankruptcies abound. And I have observed that in the last 30 years the frequency and amplitude of economic crises has grown, now inveigling the whole globe. And I remember that the whole system rests on fragile human confidence alone. Yea, I let my mind run over all those things, and clarity -- sharp, acute, unrelenting, unforgiving, ruthless -- returns. And I remember why I am holding silver and gold. In the bogus currency markets today the US dollar index fell back 20 basis points to 82.49. I wasn't paying close attention yesterday or I'd have noticed that yesterday's high print was 82.75, which fulfilled my target. Today the US dollar index posted an 82.75 high again and what looks like a key reversal (yes, yes, I know that it doesn't quite match that because it didn't trade higher) with a starkly lower close after higher trading. What I'm poking at is, the US dollar index might have topped today. Even if it intends to rise higher (and it could) to 83.65 or 84.60, it is scheduled for a correction here anyway. Both the euro and the yen are severely oversold and due at least for a relief rally. Euro closed up 0.2% at $1.3194 while the Yen rose 0.2% to 96.29 cents/Y100. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Manipulation Still Alive :: The Market Oracle :: Financial <b>...</b> Posted: 24 Aug 2014 05:52 PM PDT By: Toby_Connor
This all started right after the announcement of QE3. Gold was driven below $1700 and held below that level for 2 months. This got the ball rolling so to speak, it broke an intermediate cycle and started the bear market. Of course we all remember the call by GS to sell gold short followed by the premarket attack on April 12 that took out the stops below $1520 leading to a waterfall decline. That had to be one of the most blatant cases of manipulation in market history. Without a doubt gold completed a final ICL (intermediate cycle low) on Apr. 16. The May retest was the beginning of what should have been a recovery from the manipulation and a resumption of the secular trend. But then something happened. As gold tried to rise above $1400 we saw repeated attacks to keep gold below that level eventually leading to another waterfall decline in June down to $1179. In the process this created a 33 week intermediate cycle - a full 10 weeks longer than normal. The natural ICL occurred on week 23 at the April bottom. The manipulation to prevent a new intermediate rally above $1400 added a full 10 weeks to the cycle. And let me say that having observed these cycles for over 10 years I can say without a doubt that a failed intermediate cycle in decline never stretches an extra 10 weeks. Most of the time they bottom a bit prematurely as the selling pressure tends to exhaust itself quickly. So a manipulation zone had been established between $1400 and $1430. The next intermediate rally out of the June bottom was capped right at that $1430 level. The zone had been successfully defended. This then led to another stretched intermediate cycle. Again having watched these cycles for years I can say without a doubt that two stretched and declining cycles in a row isn't a naturally occurring event. The powers that had created this bear market were trying to run the stops below $1179 and in the process they stretched a second intermediate cycle. The next blatant manipulation of the gold market occurred right after the September FOMC meeting. Gold was immediately taken down the very next day creating a daily cycle that topped on day 1. Never in history has a gold daily cycled topped on day 1. This established another manipulation zone at $1375. The intermediate rally out of the Dec. 31 bottom poked above that $1375 level for 1 day before it was turned back down. Another manipulation level was being successfully defended. We now we have another manipulation zone that has formed at the top of the recognition day on July 19 at $1320. Other than just a few days above that level the zone has been defended and it has now broken the intermediate cycle. What is concerning is that every one of these manipulation zones are being successfully defended when challenged. That would suggest that the next intermediate rally is unlikely to get above $1320 for more than a day or two before it too is turned back. goldAt this point it has become painfully obvious that once a manipulation zone is established the powers in the paper market can defended them, and each one of these zones are occurring at lower and lower levels. I think traders need to recognize this fact and adjust their trading accordingly. One can only go long the sector at an intermediate cycle bottom, and once that rally approaches a manipulation zone get out and stay out until the next intermediate bottom. As this pertains to the gold market right now it would suggest that we aren't likely to see $1320 recovered quickly. I honestly don't know what it is going to take to break this pattern in the gold market. If two ongoing wars isn't enough to drive gold through the $1320 suppression zone who knows what kind of black swan event will have to occur to trigger a resumption of the secular trend. For now I have locked up our gains in the metals and I'm going to continue to sit on the sidelines until gold gets into the timing band for the next intermediate bottom, and that isn't due for another 7-12 weeks. If we see a manipulation zone challenged and broken, that will be our clue that gold is ready to trade freely again. As of right now that would mean a sustained move above $1320. If that were to occur that would get me off the couch and back into the market. If not, then I will wait patiently for the next buying opportunity in 2-3 months. So far the SMT has made good money buying these intermediate bottoms and exiting when gold pushes into a manipulation zone. But until the manipulation has been broken, a buy and hold strategy is no longer an option as each one of these zones is occurring at lower and lower levels as the powers in the paper market try to keep the bear market alive. Toby Connor GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby. © 2014 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
If one looks at a longer term chart of the last two years it's very clear that gold is being capped at certain levels, and those levels are slowly forcing gold lower and lower. Each one of these manipulation zones are being defended successfully and that has some serious connotations going forward.
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1 Comment for "Silver and Gold Prices: September is Nearly Always a Supremely ..."
Well the Gold edged lower as stronger dollar and firmer equities due to hopes of more stimulus from ECB expected to check any big upside for the metal as per the Epic research