<b>Gold Price</b> to Plunge, Visiting Fort Knox :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> |
- <b>Gold Price</b> to Plunge, Visiting Fort Knox :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b>
- SIlver and <b>Gold Prices</b> have Turned Up Either After One More Little <b>...</b>
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Added $4.10 to Close at $1310.80 Today
- The <b>Gold Price</b> Sprang $22.70 Clearing Two Resistance Levels
| <b>Gold Price</b> to Plunge, Visiting Fort Knox :: The Market Oracle <b>...</b> Posted: 09 Aug 2014 05:59 AM PDT By: David_Hague
How many times in history has conventional wisdom been spectacularly wrong?Sadly for gold investors my source for this horrific news is unimpeachable. It was none other than Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre, the renowned Director of Statistical Creation at the European Central Bank [ECB] who provided me with this astounding information. This insight was confirmed when Gustavo and I attended the most recent and most secret annual 'Conference of Central Bankers' hosted by the US Federal Reserve and held at the United States Bullion Depository [AKA: Fort Knox]. Believe the "experts" at your own perilBefore you dismiss the possibility of a radical plunge in the price for gold as the most inflammatory form of financial fear mongering, before you blindly accept the conventional wisdom that gold is a Safe-haven investment, I would urge you to consider how many times in history has conventional wisdom as shaped by our leaders, economists, bankers, analysts, pundits and experts been spectacularly wrong. Believe the "experts" at your own peril". Peace for our timeTo aid your journey down memory lane on the topic of conventional wisdom let me give you a sample of a Google search of the term 'when conventional wisdom was spectacularly incorrect': "At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained." - Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, March, 2007 "The United States are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land." Herbert Hoover 1928 "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher (economist), 15th October 1929 "It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these Credit Default Swap transactions." Joseph Cassano (Head of Financial Products at AIG), 2007 "My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is Peace for our time...Go home and get a nice quiet sleep." The preceding is the wording of a printed statement that Neville Chamberlain waved as he stepped off the plane on 30 September, 1938 after the Munich Conference had ended the day before: All I ask is that you allow yourself to be open mindedApproximately 3.3 billion additional examples of wrongheaded conventional wisdom and our experts being wildly incorrect can be found via Google. All I ask is that you allow yourself to be open minded as you consider what I am about to say. Dear Reader, at this point I have no doubt that you have a number of questions such as: Why would I, an aspiring journalist/economist with a history of drug and alcohol abuse, a rather checkered personal financial history and very spotty curriculum vitae, be allowed to be an attendee at a super-secret conference of Central Bankers? What is the startling information that proves that the price of gold will fall lower than "a snakes belly in a wagon-rut?" Why would the meeting be held at Fort Knox? Let me respond to these questions in brief and at length to give credence to the sad reality that "good as gold" will be nothing more than an amusing anachronism and a cautionary tale for those who would like to believe that there are certain inalienable unequivocal unshakable truisms in the investment and financial universe. What is an IdiotocracySimply put, Gold investors will become 'Roadkill' as our current economic structure completes its metamorphosis from a capitalist system within a democratic government into an 'Idiotocracy' [An 'Idiotocracy', when applied to government, is a system of regulation or government, controlled by money, run by useful idiots for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many. What it is about gold that makes us believe it has value?First let us quickly agree on what it is about gold that makes us believe it has value [other than being somewhat scarce, pretty, and possessing an interesting atomic structure]. Dear reader, I apologize in advance for the upcoming 50 words that one might feel are somewhat punctilious. The words are necessary to ensure we are all on the same page as I prove that your hordes of gold will soon have the same value as your "Beanie Baby" collection. "The biggest issue driving speculation in gold is that the fiat system has completely severed its ties with gold and the medium of exchange is now shifted on printed paper backed by people's perception of a country's economic health. Since gold was once used as a primary medium of exchange through the ages, combined with its characteristics, it is traded as a commodity and its value rise and falls opposite to the value of most global currencies. The value of gold now depends on the supply and demand of speculators buying it as a hedge to a weakening currency or an economic collapse. Ultimately, the perception of the herd is what dictates the value of commodities." [The Econtrader ] His rather grubby life took a turn for the betterNow that we are on the same page vis-à-vis gold and why it is perceived as valuable, I believe you are sufficiently prepared for the bad news that is about to follow. Let me now answer your questions. First let me explain how I, an aspiring journalist/economist/ barista with a fondness for Jack Daniels became privy to information that will change the course of history. My entrée into the exclusive world of central bankers was provided by my friendship with none other than Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre, the Global Director of Statistical Creation at the European Central bank. My relationship with Gustavo traced its roots back to my time on Wall Street where I self-medicated my way through a career in financial services. Gustavo plied his trade as a drug dealer/bookie/pimp extraordinaire to his exclusive Wall Street clientele [myself included]. His rather grubby life took a turn for the better when a very senior member of the European Central Bank while in the Big Apple for a series of high level meetings. [Code for a drunken binge ending in a hotel room in a cocaine induced coma in bed with two prostitutes] placed with Gustavo, a spectacular, ruinously large, and incorrect wager on the outcome of the 2010 World Cup. His notional job was to fabricate statisticsThe only way the hedonistic central banker could settle the debt to Gustavo and avoid meeting Roscoe, Gustavo's 300 pound [136 kg.] 'Manager of Accounts Receivable' was to offer Gustavo a highly paid sinecure at the European Central Bank [ECB]. Overnight Gustavo moved from Brooklyn to the Champs-Élysées, as the new director of Global Statistical Creation at the ECB. His notional job was to fabricate statistics to support whatever fantastical money printing and debt strategies the central banks around the world were espousing to stimulate growth in the world economy. Remarkably Gustavo's skill with numbers, coupled with his complete lack of morals and ethics, topped off with an almost sociopathic form of narcissism allowed Gustavo to excel at his job. In short order, his skill and his willingness to blackmail his colleagues ensured that he was the de facto head of the ECB and seen as leader in the Global Central Banking community. I would probably be a 'Guest of the State for a nickel or a dimeAt that fateful moment that had changed Gustavo's life forever I had been supplementing my Wall Street income by acting as a driver for Gustavo's employees. I had become privy to the hedonistic central bankers dilemma when I picked up the two prostitutes after their rendezvous with the central banker that fateful night. In addition, my friendship with Gustavo made me well aware of the staggering number of high crimes and misdemeanors he had committed. I had enough information to put him away for a thousand years. [If the information was made public I would probably be a 'Guest of the State for a nickel or a dime myself but I was prepared to take the risk.] This knowledge ensured that Gustavo always took my calls. He was always willing to share a little inside information to help out an old friend/blackmailer. Reflect on these questionsDear Reader, while you may still be dubious about the source of my information and the veracity of my thesis please continue reading. As you read please reflect on these questions: How much gold is there in the world? Who owns most of the gold? How transparent is the gold market? If gold were to replace fiat currency how many ounces of gold would there be for each person on the planet? How happy would governments be if gold replaced Fiat currency? You have to come to Kentucky immediatelyDear Reader now for the exciting part. Your patience will be rewarded. Imagine my surprise when I got a panicked phone call from Gustavo. The call came at a most inopportune moment as I was in the midst of enjoying the effects of a significant Jack Daniels day-buzz. It was time to get up and make some lunch anyway so I raised myself off the floor and answered the phone. As I made my way to the kitchen I listened to Gustavo's hysterical tirade. "David, I need your help, you have to come to Kentucky immediately" Gustavo was almost crying." I had not spoken to him since he humiliated me in Paris [but that is a story for another day]. While I was still angry at him for "throwing me under the bus" in Paris I sensed an opportunity. "Why, pray tell, would I go to Kentucky? Gustavo". I queried. He was almost incoherent and probably drooling as he spat out his answer. "David, I am supposed to address a top secret meeting of the world's central bankers being held at the United States Bullion Depository [AKA Fort Knox] tomorrow. I am the keynote speaker. The subject of my speech is Gold, Fiat Currency, Global Debt, the inevitable collapse of our monetary system as well as car allowances for central bankers." [I thought it amazing how bankers could find time to discuss car allowances at a meeting focused on the collapse of our global monetary system] I smelled a Pulitzer PrizeGustavo continued, "We are going to be instituting huge changes to the global monetary system. I must prepare the central bankers for the upcoming turmoil so that we can maintain order. Unfortunately I have reacted badly to what must have been a bad batch of Crystal Meth that I mistakenly combined with a bottle of Chardonnay [Salon Blanc de Blancs Le Mesnil-sur-Oger 1997]. I need to move around in a wheelchair for a while. I need you to push me in my wheel chair at the top secret meeting tomorrow. The secrets that we share ensure our mutual destruction should they be revealed, hence you are the only one I trust to keep my embarrassing condition from the media. Pick me up at the University Of Louisville Hospital at 9 am tomorrow morning. I have arranged for a limo to pick you up, it is probably outside your door now. It will take you to a private jet at La Guardia, you will spend the night at the Louisville Quality Inn near the airport and pick me up in the morning." I was insulted that he assumed my personal and professional calendar was so bereft of activity that I could simply drop everything to come to his aid. Sadly, my calendar was quite nugatory. Other that my bi-monthly visits with my parole officer life was quite quiet. However, I felt that attending a super-secret meeting of Central Bankers to discuss gold and the collapse of the global economy might well prove to be the opportunity that would catapult my career to the pinnacle of success. I smelled a Pulitzer Prize. I wondered when the deadline was to be nominated for the 2014 award. A thunderous round of applause greeted his arrival"Gustavo", I replied "I will put everything on hold and I will be there for you. You can count on me". In a New York minute, I gathered my suit from under the bed, my shirt and socks from the laundry basket, and my-pre knotted tie from the lampshade, then headed out the door. I will not bore you with details of my journey. Suffice to say 22 hours later, after a pleasant flight [piloted by a remarkable woman by the name of Ima Beauty] and a restful sleep I found myself pushing a wheelchair containing a somewhat pale and shaky Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre into the Main Auditorium inside the fabled Fort Knox. A thunderous round of applause greeted his arrival, the central bankers, leading representatives from the banking capitals of the world, representatives of the financial regulators from the four corners of the globe, as well as lobbyists from every major industry were effusive, almost hysterical in their fawning, fulsome and enthusiastic welcome. It revealed an artist's rendering of a renovated Fort Knox that had to be 10 times the size of the current buildingThe attendees were obviously thrilled at the arrival of their favorite 'rock-star' central banker. As I moved him to the microphone, the curtain behind the podium was unveiled to reveal an artist's rendering of a renovated Fort Knox that had to be 10 times the size of the current building. Where was this leading I wondered? Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the lawsGustavo began his presentation by asking everyone to "rise and recite the sacred words of the primogenitor of all bankers, Mayer Amschel Rothschild , founder of the House of Rothschild, Gustavo lead the audience in a recitation of the sacred words that guide all central bankers. "Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws". The audience complied in a reverent, almost messianic fashion. Gustavo continued, " Seven years ago the world's central banks launched, with great humility, operation "Grand Slam" in an attempt to formalize our control of the world. I am pleased to report that we have been successful beyond our wildest dreams. The entire world now waits breathlessly to hear even our most random thoughts on the subject of money and debt. Like the most frenzied drug addict, the world is perpetually desperate for our next thought or action." As you know we have been monitoring political activity around the globe for a sign that the masses were suitably numb and unable to think clearly, prior to taking our next step. The new government's platform was a promise to spend money like a 'drunken sailor in port'Gustavo, gaining momentum in his presentation said, "I am pleased to announce that the voters in the province of Ontario [Canada] have given us that sign. A government with a proven track record of corruption, waste, mismanagement, hubris and narcissism was reelected in a landslide victory. The new government's platform was a promise to spend money like a 'drunken sailor in port', add substantially to Ontario's already monstrous deficits and debt, and then in a feat of magic, worthy of Merlin the Magician, to impossibly balance the governments books in three years. The masses will now believe anything". This is the moment we have been waiting for. We must now put an end to the dream on Main Street that there is an alternative to Fiat currency. In 1971 our forebears thought they had accomplished this by directing Richard Nixon to end international convertibility of the dollar to gold on August 15 1971. Sadly although our actions were successful in creating governments, who would continually take on debt [54 trillion in global government debt as of this morning], our actions were not ferocious enough either in 1933 or 1971 to crush those malcontents who continue to this day to believe that gold is a suitable alternative to fiat currency. We will not make the same 'rookie mistake' twice." The only item that remains is to select a crisis to misdirect the public's attentionGustavo was becoming manic in his presentation. He continued, "It is time for us to complete our quest for world domination. In three weeks the world's central banks via our acolytes, sycophants and toadies [by this I assume he was referring to elected officials representing the masses in government] will announce our intention to confiscate all personal holdings of gold. This will be done at the same price as we did in 1933, $20.67 [USD] In effect we will have a 'do over' of Executive Order 6102 signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt which "forbid the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States" That order allowed our progenitors to criminalize the possession of gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation. This ensured that all gold in the USA had to be turned over, to the US government on or before May 1st 1933. [Thus the need to construct the United States Bullion Depository, popularly known as Fort Knox, but really it is adjacent to Fort Knox.] We made some 'rookie mistakes' that time. We only confiscated the gold in the USA. This time the confiscation will be done on a global basis. Secondly we exempted things like jewelry, some industrial use gold, gold coins etc. We will not make that mistake twice. Furthermore, unlike Executive Order 6102, this order will never be repealed. The only item that remains is to select a crisis to misdirect the public's attention as we steal their gold. Please fill out the ballot you were given when you entered." All the 'usual suspects' are on the ballotGustavo instructed the audience. "The ballot offers you the chance to vote on which crisis-du-jour on which we will blame our actions. All the 'usual suspects' are on the ballot, as well as a few new ones." I looked at my ballot. He was right. They were all there, Global Warming, the Middle East, Al-Qaeda, generic terrorists, Republicans, Democrats, Green Party, oil shortages, environmental concerns, the Middle East, China, Iran, corrupt politicians, were amongst the many options. I do not expect you to talk, I expect you to lie.Gustavo directed the audience, "Please give your completed ballot to Mr. Strangework, the stout man dressed in a Tuxedo and wearing a Bowler hat, on your way out." At that point, with great temerity a hand was raised in the audience. After receiving permission from Gustavo, he stood up and prepared to ask his question. He introduced himself as Auric, Gilbert Auric, a functionary at the Bank of England. I learned later that the man was hopelessly delusional. He had gone so far as to change his name as an homage to the most 'Famous Gold Bug in History'. In any event, Mr. Auric obsequiously continued with his question. "Mr. Laframboise-Pierre, when this information is released to the public there will be many questions. Do you expect us to talk"? Gustavo looked fierce, he arose from his wheelchair, stared at the audience and said sternly "No, Mr. Auric, I do not expect you to talk, I expect you to lie." You should be ashamed to call yourself a gold bugDear reader if at this point you cannot deduce the identity of the most famous Gold Bug in history, after all the less than cryptic hints I have given, you should be ashamed to call yourself a gold bug. By financial discomfort I assume he meant penury for Main StreetIn any event after the standing ovation Gustavo received following his announcement subsided he continued his remarks. "We realize that our actions may cause some financial discomfort for Main Street. We feel however that the benefits of our actions far outweigh the costs. We feel it is reasonable to ask everyone to sacrifice a little for the greater good of society as a whole". [By financial discomfort I assumed he meant penury for Main Street and by society I assume he meant the 1%.] Gustavo was on a roll nowLike you Dear Reader, I was appalled to hear the 'Facts on the ground' stated so clearly. Our governments had become quite clearly, servants of the Central Banks and Lobbyists. While many of you have likely suspected this reality, it was shocking to hear it declared as a fact in such an august and powerful setting. Gustavo was on a roll now. While still a bit unsteady he remained standing and explained to the audience. "In order to ensure your own personal and professional financial safety we will allow all of you here today, in the weeks running up to the seizure of the world's gold, to put in place your trading strategies in anticipation of the 'Mother of All Insider Trades' This will allow you and your organizations to profit beyond your wildest dreams when we 'drop the hammer' and reduce the price of gold to $20.67 USD. They were all grinning like Cheshire Cats"In the weeks prior to the event our shills on Wall Street will pump the price of gold to $2700/ounce. Then, the 'Axe will fall'. Depending on the trading strategy you have chosen, we anticipate you and your organizations should collectively profit in the amount of 8.3 trillion dollars". [In researching this commentary afterward, I learned that $8.3 trillion was roughly equal to the value of all the gold that has ever been mined in history.] Gustavo raised his voice as he said, "I believe that we can count on the world's Securities Regulators to turn a blind eye to this egregious insider trading in the interests of the long term benefits to mankind". He smirked as he said these words and looked up at the private box that contained most of the world's securities regulators. They were all grinning like Cheshire Cats and giving him the 'Thumbs up'. Clearly even securities regulators would like to be billionaires. It is even possible that some small benefit, in the form of jobs, will trickle down to Main StreetPandemonium erupted in the room as everyone realized they were going to richer than King Midas. Even the North Korean delegation seemed to be quite 'stoked' at the thought of vast personal wealth. The issue of car allowances for central bankers seemed somewhat irrelevant now. Gustavo gestured to the room and asked for quiet. "As the new leaders of the world we will continue to encourage all manner of civil and nation-state wars. We will keep the perceived threat levels permanently elevated to ensure a continued production or war material. We will remove pesky environmental protection laws, and we will outlaw any car that gets more than 10 miles to the gallon. The oil industry lobbyists were ecstatic. Other similar actions in other industrial activities will also be forthcoming. The profits we enjoy from these activities will quintuple. It is even possible that some small benefit, in the form of jobs, will trickle down to Main Street". After all, he grinned, "Who will clean up the inevitable toxic spills and fight the wars our actions will cause?" The audience doubled over in a cacophony of laughter at Gustavo's 'bon mot'. Gustavo actually genuflected as he mentioned the name RothschildLadies and Gentleman, Gustavo concluded, "I thank you for your attention. We have a lot of work ahead of us. It will be a difficult journey, but the rewards will be commensurate with our efforts. I would like to conclude my remarks by giving credit to the individuals who created this masterful plan and set it in motion many years ago. Let me read to you a quote from the letter that set the wheels in motion in 1863. The letter is from the Book of Rothschild, Chapter 11 verse 3-12". Gustavo actually genuflected as he mentioned the name Rothschild. Gustavo read the quote, "The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests." The Rothschild brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863." Beam me up!As the audience exited the auditorium and handed their ballots to Mr. Strangework, I slowly wheeled an elated and exhausted Gustavo off the stage. I reflected on what I had heard today and felt somewhat ill. Clearly there was a 'world of hurt' coming in Main Streets direction. Should I expose the banker's nefarious scheme or should I use the information to become obscenely rich. This would require some serious thought. As we made for the exit two extremely large private security guards grabbed me, threw a bag over my head and hustled me into a waiting van. I heard Gustavo as I banged my head getting into the van. "David", Gustavo pleaded, "I am sorry my old friend, but I cannot let you out in public until we have executed our plan. You would be far too tempted to expose our actions in order to win your coveted Pulitzer Prize. You will be released after our efforts have succeeded." I could not believe it. He had thrown me under the bus once again. I hoped the prison to which I was being taken had internet access, as the guards had neglected to find the smartphone I always kept in my sock. Desperate times require desperate measures. The words of Captain James T. Kirk, Captain of the Starship Enterprise, a man who had vast experience in crisis management, came to mind. I closed my eyes, clicked my heels together three times, and uttered the immortal words, "Beam me up Scotty, I think I am in trouble again." David Hague David can be reached at davidhague@rogers.com David has divided his time unequally for the last 30 years between the financial services, education, writing and comedy. He has spent time in financial services as an investment adviser, financial planner, sales trainer, corporate entertainer, and as a teacher of investment courses. He has also taught numerous financial courses. His work in comedy includes numerous corporate events and performances at comedy clubs. His background allows him to seamlessly move between the business world, higher education and the world of comedy and sometimes, to bring the two worlds together. © 2014 Copyright David Hague - All Rights Reserved © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SIlver and <b>Gold Prices</b> have Turned Up Either After One More Little <b>...</b> Posted: 08 Aug 2014 04:19 PM PDT
The gold price lost $1.90 to $1,308.90 today while silver fell 4.9 cents to 1990.2c. The GOLD PRICE punched through the downtrend line form October 2012 today, a new high for the move, as high as $1,324.30, but couldn't hold on there and fell back under the line. That's lousy and the first half of a key reversal. A lower close on Monday confirms that reversal. The gold price rose 1.2% this week while silver fell 2.1%. That suggests that gold's rise was gassed by the Ukraine crisis. The SILVER PRICE never even rose above its 200 DMA this week. Not far away at about 1960c stands the downtrend line from the August 2013 high. If silver doesn't catch there it could drop to 1860c. What's in favor of it stopping there? Well, it broke out through that line in June, and markets quite often trade back to a resistance line they have broken for a final kiss goodbye before moving higher. I don't expect silver and gold prices to tumble significantly. The gold price might hit $1,270, silver 1930c, but I believe they have turned up and, either after one more little low or immediately trade high the rest of the month in an August rally, classic time for precious metals rallies to begin. Dow continues on a confirmed monthly key reversal (=break into new high ground with a lower close than the previous month, confirmed by a lower close in the next month). Today the Dow rose 185.66 (1.13%) to 16,553.93 while the S&P500 rose 22.02 (1.15%) to 1,931.59. It appears that the Dow is doing no more than bouncing off its 200 DMA (16,348.82). MACD still calls for lower prices, but stocks probably will rally a bit to work off their oversoldness. Like silver and gold, the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are contradicting each other. Dow in gold rose today, 1.44% to 12.63 oz (G$261.08 gold dollars), but from a hair's breadth above the uptrend line from August 2011 (12.452 oz against 12.4 oz or G$257.41 against G$256.33). All indicators call for lower prices, and the DiG is below all its moving averages, so momentum is firmly down. Dow in Silver, on the other hand, has an upward correction that has not yet turned down. More, it punched into its 50 DMA today ($1,072.39 silver dollars or 829.43 oz). Today it rose 1.49% to S$1,074.89 (831.23 oz). Needs a close below $1,055.68 (816.5 oz) to confirm a downturn. US dollar index, Parasite of Nations, Punisher of Savers, Terror of Investors, fell back below 81.50 support/resistance. Closed down 13 basis points to 81.46. May correct a little here before it resumes its rally. Euro rose 0.32% to $1.3406, but still looks like a motheaten old sweater you ought to throw away. Yen this week cancelled out the sell signal it flashed when it fell out of that triangle by trading back up into the gaps left behind. Still, that doesn't mean it's showing much strength -- bound in the same old range. A reader has chided me for not giving proper credit and thanks for those medical personnel attending my friend Daniel and applying those means necessary to his recovery. He is right, and I thank God for each of them and their faithful, diligent service. They took Daniel off the ventilator today and he is recognizing people. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Added $4.10 to Close at $1310.80 Today Posted: 07 Aug 2014 04:15 PM PDT
By the tee-tiniest of margins the gold price in the aftermarket closed above that downtrend line from October 2012. The Comex close at $1,310.80 wouldn't have been enough. Can't count that as a breakout, but it does command a little respect. Not much, just a little. Thoughts are beginning to circle in my mind like buzzards over roadkill that the GOLD PRICE completed a Right shoulder of an upside-down head and shoulders with that drop to $1,281 last week. Thoughts haven't landed yet, but they are circling. I am never quite easy when silver and gold prices are rising and SILVER gainsays gold by falling when gold rises. I am further miffed that silver will not close above 2000c resistance. This is bad taste and bad form, although I will grant the possibility that last week's lows about 1975c market the extent of the correction. That is a sucker bet, however, because silver has not given yet a firm witness of turning around. A close above 2060c would do that without reservation or hesitation. If nothing more that Ukraine-anxiety is driving this rally-ette, 'twill fail soon and give us further downside. But I am a hypocrite. I bought a fairly stout (for me) amount of both silver and gold prices today. Yesterday I meant to tell y'all that the 10 year not yield fell hugely, but recovered on the close to close at the top of the range. Today it fell 2.02% to end at 2.424%. That all looks very odd to me, making that huge fall but then closing at the day's high. Anyway, it appears to be a breakdown in interest rates (breakout upside in bonds, as they move opposite to their interest rates. Stocks kept on falling today. Dow lost 75.07 (0.46%) to end the day at 16,368.27 -- 1.14% DOWN from where it began the year. S&P500 fell 10.67 (0.56%) to 1909.57. Today the Dow punched into, but closed not below, its 200 DMA (16,343.38). It hath yet further to fall, as the meteor from the sky, the apple from the tree, and the job openings on Wall Street. S&P500 closed below its one hundred day moving average (1,913.72). Lower prices coming. Land o' Goshen! As my country aunts used to say, that Dow in Gold fell nearly to the uptrend line from August 2011! Today that line stands about 12.40 (G$256.33) and the DiG closed down 1.03% at 12.45 oz (G$257.36). (I have no idea why they said that or even what they meant, other than extreme surprise and astonishment.) Dow in silver skidded 0.16%, right along the falling fanline. Ended at 819.03 oz (S$1,058.95 silver dollars). 200 DMA awaits below at 808.15 oz. US dollar index rose 9 basis points to 81.59, telling us nothing but the dollar's reluctance to fall. Euro lost 0.16%, while the yen, stretching its muscles, rose 0.03%. Nothing happening in scrofulous currencies. I'm already in hot water because Susan has been all day preparing the Shoe (our house) for a birthday party for my daughter Mercy tonight. You have never seen anybody serious until you watch my wife planning and preparing a party -- one of the reasons I love her, among many, but I cannot be late so I have to run but I have some good news. Today I went to see my friend Daniel in the hospital and when I asked him to squeeze my hand, he could. When I asked him how he was, he mouthed around the breathing tube, "Pretty good." I cried, I don't mind telling y'all. Thank God for his mercy, and please keep on praying for Daniel Freemon. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The <b>Gold Price</b> Sprang $22.70 Clearing Two Resistance Levels Posted: 06 Aug 2014 04:56 PM PDT
That jump carried the GOLD PRICE through its 20 DMA ($1,304.94) almost to the downtrend line from October 2012, which has been the stout barrier to gold's rise in the last 2 months. Tomorrow that line stands at $1,313.75, so any STRONG close above that would constitute a breakout. On the other hand, I am haunted by remembering that these crisis-inspired runs usually fade and hand back all the gains. The SILVER PRICE yesterday came right to the downtrend line from the August 2013 high, skidded to a stop, and reversed higher today. GOLD/SILVER RATIO has worked strongly higher in the last three days, from 63.90 to 64.868 yesterday to 65.38 today. Very much overbought, and ought to fall back soon. The gold price, up about $20, doped up on increasing tensions over Ukraine. Putin put his own sanctions on the EU and other countries, showing two can play the sanction game. One wonders if the noobs in the US regime really are stupid enough to throw the whole world into war. They certainly want one, as their propaganda machine has shifted into high gear, and never mind waiting for facts, lies will work even better. My suspicious nature says the Nice Government Men went into high gear today, too, to make sure markets didn't run away on the bad noises out of Ukraine. Stock indices rose toward noon, then eroded the rest of the day, but closed "up". Dow gained an minute 13.87 (0.08%) to close at 16,443.34. S&P500 rose an infinitesimal 0.03 (0.00%) to 1,920.24. With a 16,369.55 low yesterday, the Dow scared its 200 DMA (16,338.50) to death. Surely a bull market nearing its 200 DMA ought to attract buyers aplenty, but today's Dow gain doesn't look too stout. RSI has fallen to areas where it ought to rebound, but MACD gives no token of turning up. The S&P500's 200 DMA lies far below at 1,861, but the 100 DMA is at 1,913, a line the S&P500 punched at its 1,911.45 low today. Logically stocks ought to stage some sort of little rally from here, but the plunge has not yet ended. Whoa! Dow in gold sliced clean through its 200 DMA (12.71 oz or G$262.74 gold dollars), falling 1.24% to 12.58 oz (G$260.05). Y'all recall that the DiG topped on 9 June and fell hard until mid-July, when it began a countertrend rally. It has now (1) crossed below the 200 DMA AND (2) closed below the last low (12.645 oz or G$261.39) oz). Mark: the uptrend line from the August 2011 will stand tomorrow at 12.40 oz (G$256.33). Crossing that line will give the next confirmation that the long trend of stocks rising against gold, which began with the gold top in August 2011, had ENDED. Silver acted a little lethargic today,. Dow in silver dropped only 1.24% to 820.32 oz (S$1,060.62 silver dollars). This remains equivocal, with the 20 DMA below at 815.24 oz (S$1,054.05) and the 200 DMA at 807.51 oz (S$1,044.05). Conceivably the DiS could knife through those tomorrow, but it hasn't done so yet. I don't know a durned thing, but had I been the Nice Government Men today I'd a-been selling that dollar hard, to keep it from running away upside during a crisis. But maybe it was nacheral forces drove the dollar index down ten basis points to 81.50. And it is more overbought than Liberace albums at an old ladies' convention. Euro wriggled and showed slight signs of life, rising 0.04% to $1.3380. Yen rose a sizeable 0.52% to 97.99. That sliced into (but closed not above) all its clustered 200, 50, and 20 DMAs, and closed the gaps left behind by the fall. That likely invalidates the sell signal the yen gave when it fell out of that long narrow triangle. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
Dear Reader, my apologies for the stunning revelation regarding the upcoming cataclysmic drop in the value of gold. I realize that my fellow gold bugs will be reaching for some form of chemical assistance to help them regain their composure after contemplating the implications of the title of my commentary. Gold bugs, I am sure, will scour my words to find evidence in my analysis that my statement is entirely incorrect.
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1 Comment for "Gold Price to Plunge, Visiting Fort Knox :: The Market Oracle ..."
Gold futures for October 2014 contract, at MCX, is trading at Rs. 28,548 per 10 grams,