Posted: 15 Jul 2014 11:45 AM PDT

Asian countries withdraw the largest amount of gold from Switzerland As the MUST SEE charts below clearly demonstrate, gold is rapidly flowout out of the West to Asia…after a short layover in Switzerland.

Submitted by Market Update:

More and more gold is flowing towards the emerging economic powers in Asia. We do not conclude this based on just anecdotal evidence, but also based on the Chinese gold imports through Hong Kong and the increasing flow of gold out of Switzerland and the United Kongdom. In April, Marketupdate published a chart of the gold flows in and out of Switzerland from the first quarter of this year, based on new data published by the Swiss Customs Administration. The gold trade data from Switzerland is not new, but this is the first year in which the import and export figures are available for each country individually. This gave us the opportunity to perform a more detailed analysis on the Swiss gold trade.

The following graphs show the net amount of gold flowing in and out of Switzerland during the first five months of this year.

The first graph shows the countries which traded the largest amount of gold in Switzerland. The negative volumes represent the amount of gold flowing out of Switzerland to the country mentioned, while the positive bars show the amount of gold countries brought to the Swiss gold vaults.

These results confirm the trend we have been talking about for a while now, the flow of physical gold to Asia and the Middle-East.
This gold is mainly from 'the West', more specifically the United States and the UK.
The top five of countries getting gold out of Switzerland are Hong Kong, China, India, Singapore and Saudi-Arabia.
The oil-producing countries also prove to have a strong appetite for physical gold, because the metal represents a long term store of value to them.

Asian countries withdraw the largest amount of gold from Switzerland

Gold flowing to Asia and the Middle-East

When we take the Swiss gold trade as a reference point for the gold market, we see a worldwide flow of gold towards Asia and the oil-producing countries in the Middle-East. When we combine the total trade volume between Switzerland and the rest of the world, we see a clear trend of gold moving from other continents towards the East. From January till May this year, a total volume of almost 550 tonnes of gold went from Switzerland to Asian countries. A significant volume of 33 tonnes of gold flowed from the Swiss vaults to the Middle-East region. Al other countries were busy supplying Switzerland with the precious yellow metal.

Physical gold flowing to Asia and the Middle-East

Based on these figures, we cannot trace whether there is a direct relationship between the gold flow from Switzerland to Asia and the gold flow from other countries to Switzerland. But given the fact that Switzerland is an important trading hub for gold globally, we can draw the conclusion that the flow of gold to the East is still strong.

United States

This trend is, to a certain extent, comparable with the '50s and '60s of the twentieth century. After WWII the United States were very powerful and had a strong export capacity. Europe still had to recover from WWII and paid off their debts to the United States with their large gold hoards. Af the war, the US managed to expand their gold reserve from 9.000 to approximately 24.000 tonnes. After peaking in 1958, the US gold hoard started dwindling again. European countries became net exporters and accumulated dollar reserves, which in turn were exchanged for physical gold. Most of this gold trade was done on paper, since the European gold was still in the vaults of the Federal Reserve. The US gold hoard was dwindling fast, once it became clear the US couldn't deliver on its promise to pay gold at a fixed exchange rate of $35 per troy ounce. In 1971, Nixon abandoned the link between the dollar and gold.

Now it looks like Asian is playing the role Europe played during the Bretton Woods system. First they accumulated dollar reserves by running a trade surplus with the US and Europe. Now they want value for their money and they started trading paper for gold. The question is: How will this end?

In the late fifties, many European countries redeemed gold from the US, now the metal is moving to Asia

Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way ...

Posted: 19 Jul 2014 04:13 AM PDT

by Michael Noonan

There is no one singular event that will ultimately loosen the manipulative shackles that
the elite's central bankers have maintained on the PMs [Precious Metals], as evidence
continues to mount that Western countries, and the US, especially, are going under
economically and financially. All central banks are insolvent, kept afloat by lies. The
accounting rules have been changes to allow banks to price their assets however the
banks choose. Most, if not all central banks assets, [just about all banks, as well] are
worthless, or near worthless.

The sanctions charade that Obama keeps imposing on Russia is having some degree of
affect, but overall, the US moves do nothing more than isolate itself from the rest of
the Western world unwilling to risk offending their energy supplier and business partner,
Russia. By extension, there are strong ties between Russia and China, and one of the
pivotal business partnerships with both is Germany. As goes Germany, so goes Europe.

Austria has already picked sides, with Russia, for the economic writing is on the wall, but
this country does not have the same influence/impact as Germany, but the path of least
resistance keeps getting clearer.

Germany is not about to jeopardize its long-established business ties with Russia. At least
3,000 businesses are linked to Russia, and they are not being quiet in their displeasure
about any sanctions against Russia by the US. Further, Deutschland is increasing its
economic ties to and with China. Between these three powerhouse nations, it is all about
business and economic growth. With the US, it is all about fiat debt and war with little
to no concern about which country[s] the US alienates in order to support its flailing and
failing debt addiction.

Throw in the NSA spying scandal the US has and continues to wage against Germany,
add the you-will-get-your-[non-existent]- gold when we say you can have it, and the
clock it ticking as to when Germany says, "Genug ist genug!" Many measures have been
taken that demonstrate a growing rift between these once-solid allies, and the only thing
standing in the way of a complete breakaway is Chancellor Merkel, whose days have to
be numbered.

The formation of the BRICS alliance continues to solidify, and there is a growing list of
nations wanting to join or become associates. Practically everything connected with the
BRICS consortium is growth-based development revolving around or tied to gold, and if
not gold then something tangible, often energy related. What is missing is the dependence
on the toxic US Treasury bonds and fiat Federal Reserve Notes, incorrectly called the "dollar."

The BRICS just keep building, golden brick by energy brick, the House of BRICS, as it
were, and in stark contrast to the House Of Paper by the US. While Obama cannot get
an audience for his Asian effort to form an alliance that omits China, cannot get an
audience from Saudi leaders moving father and farther away from the US and aligning
with China more and more, the recent BRICS Summit in Brazil had the presidents from
over 20 countries not just in attendance, but heading up their delegations.

You do not see this caliber of commitment from Obama or any Western leader, for a
reason. Other than more debt, the West has nothing tangible to offer.

The BRICS have formed their own banking cartel to eventually rival and possibly make
obsolete the IMF, given enough time. Russian President Putin is spearheading an energy
reserve, alluded to above, that will be as important as the BRICS bank. While Obama
plays golf, South America is developing strong economic ties as a united region opposed
to the fiat-driven enslavement tactics of the US central banks.

Adious, Obama. If you like your fiat dollar, you can keep it. [For our foreign readers, in
promising nothing but positive for "Obamacare," Obama made the statement, "If you like
your insurance plan, you can keep it." The numbers who lost their insurance plan, once
Obamacare was passed was astounding and a disaster for the public.]

Despite all of the sensationalized news events, none have a lasting effect for driving gold
and silver prices higher, as one would expect given the war nature in much of the recent
news. The behind-the-scenes and underhanded guiding forces of the elites directing the
teleprompter-reading, blame-everything-on Russia, golf-playing president Obama has
less and less impact, and his credibility is near all-time lows.

There was another reminder, last Monday, of how the elites and their central banks will
not go away quietly, and that was the smack-down of gold, around $3.7 billion sold onto
the market at one time. The only sensible explanation in a less and less sensible world is
one word, manipulation.

Ukraine may end up being the proverbial final straw in the US game plan that turns even
the NATO tide against US utterly failing ally interests. In the recent Malaysian plane shot
down, Obama is pointing the finger and blaming pro-Russian factors responsible, while
knowing full well and not admitting there is not the slightest bit of evidence, credible or
otherwise, that points to Russia, just Obama's say so. The can of worms Obama has
opened by inciting the takeover of a duly elected Ukrainian president keeps getting worse.

The seemingly never-ending mosaic of events have yet to coalesce into one that has a more
definitive direction that will ultimately drive gold and silver higher. We are now in the
second half of 2014, and our conjecture that 2014 may be a repeat of 2013 is still in play.

Starting with weekly gold, the lower of two protracted TRs [Trading Ranges], persists with
no clear sign of a breakout. This week, we show the extent of price rally and time, viewing
each swing up and down. They depict how the corrections lower have been more labored
in duration and less in amount. Last week's close keeps gold just above 50% of the range
low to high, which is 1306, a general guide to see if a correction can hold a half-way
retracement.

The clustering of closes and last week's wide-range bar may have more meaning when
viewed on the slightly more detailed daily chart.

D/S [Demand overcoming Supply] bars are important, especially when [but not always]
accompanied with a sharp volume increase. The volume is a mark of strong hands buying
that creates the volume as well as the upward ease of movement in price. It is a sign that
buyers have overwhelmed sellers and taken control. It is also an early sign of market
strength. Subsequent market activity will confirm the validity of a D/S bar.

How? [Good question.]

If a D/S bar is a sign of strength, that observable fact will be confirmed when the bar is
retested. A successful retest will be proven when the next decline is held in check within
the confines of the bar's range. A retest will hold anywhere from the top of the bar to as
much as the lower range of the bar. When a correction holds at/near the top of a D/S
bar, the underlying market is strong. Buyers are protecting their positions.

When a correction goes deeper into a D/S bar, the developing trend is not as strong, but
it is still showing an ability to hold and likely work higher. Last week's retest of the D/S
went well into the bar range but without totally retracing the entire bar. Given that the
initial large decline from last Monday resulted from a massive dumping at one time, the
reaction has been good, overall.

In addition, as noted on the chart, last week's sell-off stopped at a 50% range retracement.
This does not guarantee higher prices, but it puts the probability of rallying higher being
greater than continuing lower.

Most all of these observations are based upon logic, using one form of market activity to
confirm another, step-by-step. When you read a market this way, you are keeping attuned
to what is going on in the market, present tense, without having to know of any exogenous
events that may or may not seem to be market related.

We tend to favor silver over gold during the next rally phase. Both will rally as a pair, but
silver is more likely to outperform gold and bring the gold:silver ratio closer than it is.
Silver keeps hugging nearer to the 18+ area support area and not rallying higher to the
upper resistance area, and that can lead to another lower swing low. This is mentioned
as a possibility without assigning any level of probability. If there is one more attempt
at a lower low, we would expect it to be brief, but "if" is conditional and not guaranteed.

The daily chart may be more illuminating.

We did not draw in the thin lines connecting the swing highs/lows as was done on the gold
chart [daily], because the current activity here is much more obvious, as the comments
note. Recall from the explanation of the degree of retracement of a D/S bar will be more
indicative of the underlying potential for continuation. Here, last week's rally stopped at
the upper reaches of the D/S bar, and well above a 50% of range retracement, making
silver's chart performance stronger compared to gold's.

Between the two, the question about further upside is better answered in the silver chart.
The probability of higher prices to come is much greater compared to the gold chart.
Silver's sideways movement is a weaker correction of its recent gains. What we know about
corrections that are weak is that they typically lead to higher prices.

We said that last week in recommending the long side on the breakouts for gold and silver,
only to be stopped out on Monday's dumping of gold contracts. It happens, and there is
little one can do, except wait for the next opportunity, and they always come along. If this
is a developing change of behavior that will lead to a change in trend, the number of
opportunities to participate from the long side will grow. Keep one's powder dry for the
purchase of futures.

The opportunities for purchasing physical silver and gold are greater now than in the past
few years. Keep buying. Keep stacking. A 400% gain in the next 12 -24 months is not
a stretch of anyone's imagination. First things first, however, and the first thing we need
to see is a breakout of the current TR. There should be no hesitation, however, in the
ongoing purchase of the physical metals. None.

It is not a question of an upside breakout for physical gold and silver. Rather, it is more
a question of the ongoing breakdown and collapse of the Western banking system and fiat
"dollar." That process has been well on its way for several years. It does not happen
overnight, until after one night when you wake up, and it will have already happened.

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a must see gold chart for serious investors and traders, part 1 $gld ...

Posted: 14 Jul 2014 09:42 AM PDT

Why is this gold chart a must see chart for serious investors and traders? The answer is simple. Those who have followed along have profited handsomely by buying a large core position aggressively in $600s, selling half of the core position at $1904 and selling the remaining half at $1757, undertaking a large number of profitable short-term trades from the long side during the gold bull market, and undertaking a large number of short-term trades from the short side to profit from the gold bear market.

At The Arora Report, we rely heavily on adaptive algorithms that take into account many, many factors. In our research, the four most important factors at this time are technicals, quality of ownership, inflation expectation momentum, and sentiment momentum. All of the four important factors are shown on the chart of popular SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).

Please click here for an enlarged chart.

This is the first in a series of four articles. In this article, technicals will be addressed; the other three important factors will be addressed in subsequent articles.

Symmetrical Triangles

The chart shows two symmetrical triangles markets by orange colored lines.

A symmetrical triangle is formed when the prices behave in a manner such that the price range is wide in the beginning and contracting as time progresses. Symmetrical triangles are important to watch because they lead to break outs. A break out can be in either direction. A break out from a symmetrical triangle in the direction of the trend happens far more often than against the trend. For this reason, symmetrical triangles are often considered as continuation patterns; however, sticking with the assumption can be dangerous. A symmetrical triangle formed in the price chart of gold at a time when gold was approaching its highs broke to the downside as shown in the chart.

Right now, gold chart is forming another symmetrical triangle as shown on the right-hand side of the chart. In the big picture, gold trend is still down. Therefore, chances of this triangle breaking to the downside are higher than breaking on the upside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Leonardo Pisano Bigolo, popularly known as Fibonacci, was an Italian mathematician who originated many concepts that are still in use today. Fibonacci retracements are ratios that are useful in determining potential reversal levels. The chart shows Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. In the big picture, gold retraced to the 61.8% level. Often 61.8% level marks the bottom of a cycle The next retracement level is 76.4%. The retracement of gold to this level cannot be ruled out. . In the big picture, such retracement will bring gold price to the bottom of the target zone shown on the chart. The point is that there is still significant downside risk in gold; this risk will be alleviated if gold continues to meander between 50% and 61.8% for a few more months.

Very Long-Term Target

As my long-term readers may recall that when I issue an unequivocal signal to sell gold at $1904, I forecasted the target zone shown on the chart. That call has proven spot on as gold dipped one third of the way into the target zone.

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Gold flowing to Asia and the Middle-East

United States

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