15 July 2014 - Harga Emas Kian Berkilau Pekan Ini |
- 15 July 2014 - Harga Emas Kian Berkilau Pekan Ini
- 15 July 2014 - Gold hammered on profit-taking
- 15 July 2014 - Goldman Stays Gold Bear as Bullish Wagers Increase
- 15 July 2014 - 葡萄牙危机及印黄金关税致金价上扬
| 15 July 2014 - Harga Emas Kian Berkilau Pekan Ini Posted: 15 Jul 2014 06:13 PM PDT From:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2077312/harga-emas-kian-berkilau-pekan-ini Liputan6.com, New York - Kekacauan dan konflik geopolitik di berbagai negara terus mencuri perhatian para investor dari seluruh penjuru dunia. Kekhawatiran akan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik membuat emas menjadi incaran dan memicu harganya terus naik. Mengutip laman Forbes, Senin (14/7/2014), pekan ini, para partisipan survei mingguan bertajuk Kitco News Gold Survey memprediksi harga emas akan kembali berkilau. Hal itu menyusul kuatnya data teknikal pergerakan harga emas dan ditopang kekhawatiran konflik geopolitik, Dari 25 responden, sebanyak 17 partisipan memprediksi harga emas akan naik. Sedangkan enam diantaranya menilai harga emas akan turun dan dua diantaranya memprediksi harga emas bergerak stagnan pekan ini. Para partisipan terdiri dari pialang emas, sejumlah bank investasi, pedagang emas dan analis pergerakan harga logam mulia tersebut. Sementara itu, prediksi para partisipan tepat dengan kenaikan harga emas sebesar US$ 18 per ounce sepanjang pekan lalu. Sebagian besar partisipan yang mengatakan, kenaikan harga emas pekan ini akan dipicu konflik dari berbagai negara. Selain itu data teknikal emas juga mengarah pada penguatan harga. Dalam empat bulan terakhir, harga emas telah meningkat hingga ke level yang sangat tinggi yaitu US$ 1.346,8 per ounce. "Saat ini faktor-faktor pemicu naiknya harga emas termasuk konflik regional antara Ukraina-Rusia, Israel-Palestina, dan Irak-Suriah. Selain itu kesehatan finansial Eropa dan rilis data ekonomi China juga menjadi salah satu faktor naiknya harga emas," ungkap pengamat emas di Eureka Minee, Richard Baker. Sementara para partisipan yang melihat harga emas menurun mengatakan adanya kemungkinan penguatan dolar AS yang dapat menekan logam mulia tersebut. "Pasar akan tetap berada di kisaran US$ 1.310- US$ 1.340 per ounce, tapi dengan adanya tanda-tanda penguatan dolar AS. Saya rasa harga emas akan melemah dan tak bisa berada di level US$ 1.325- US$ 1.350 per ounce," ungkap penulis di Morrison on The Markets, Ken Morrison. (Sis/Ndw) (Nurseffi Dwi Wahyuni) Source:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2077312/harga-emas-kian-berkilau-pekan-ini |
| 15 July 2014 - Gold hammered on profit-taking Posted: 15 Jul 2014 06:10 PM PDT From:http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/07/14/gold-hammered-on-profit-taking/12641931/ John Waggoner, USA TODAY Gold, one of 2014's stellar performers, sold off more than 2% Monday in a rout that traders blamed on profit-taking and pre-placed sell orders. Gold started the year at $1,202 an ounce and soared 11.2% to $1,337.40 an ounce by Friday. Monday, however, the rally got hammered, and gold fell $30.70 an ounce, or 2.3%, to $1,306.70. iShares Gold Trust, a $7.1 billion exchange-traded fund that invests in the yellow metal, dropped 2.27%. People invest in gold when they feel unsure about paper assets, particularly currency, or when war or other disruptions threaten to disrupt the financial system. So far this year, talk of inflation — which erodes the value of currency — has been elevated, in part because May's consumer price index jumped 0.3%, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 2.1%. The Federal Reserve has said that it aims for a 2% inflation rate, as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which rose 1.77% in May. The tensions between Israel and Gaza have also intensified investor insecurity. But signs of slow growth in Europe have dampened some inflationary fears, and fears of a ground invasion of Gaza seem to be slowing as well. Both could have prompted some profit-taking in the yellow metal. And, says Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, wedding season in India — a prime time for gold purchases on the subcontinent — has ended for the summer. Why the sell-off Monday? Hard to say. The gold market is small: Melted on an NFL football field, sideline to sideline and end zone to end zone, all the world's gold would rise 5.4 feet. A few relatively large trades can sway the gold market fairly quickly. "Any of the major gold-trading firms or large-scale institutional speculators — acting independently — has the power to knock gold one way or the other by $25 or even $50 an ounce or more when the internal technical triggers are properly aligned," says Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors. The best time to buy gold, Holmes argues, is when the yield on five- and 10-year Treasury securities is below the inflation rate. That's true now for five-year Treasuries, which yield 1.67%, but not for 10-year T-notes, which yield 2.55%. "Gold becomes money when the government pays less interest than the rate of inflation," he says. Currently, several large investment banks, most notably Goldman Sachs, are negative on gold. Still, signs of higher inflation — or further world unrest — could send gold prices up again. Source:http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/07/14/gold-hammered-on-profit-taking/12641931/ |
| 15 July 2014 - Goldman Stays Gold Bear as Bullish Wagers Increase Posted: 15 Jul 2014 06:08 PM PDT By Debarati Roy Jul 15, 2014 Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Jeffrey Currie isn't backing down from his bearish call on gold. As bullion's 8.7 percent rally this year beats gains for equities, commodities and Treasuries, he's sticking with the view that the metal will be lower by the end of December as the economy improves. Currie, who last year got ahead of the biggest gold collapse since 1980, is an undeterred bear even as hedge funds add to their bullish holdings for a fifth straight week and assets in exchange-traded products advance. Currie isn't alone in predicting the end to a rebound that drove the best first-half performance for gold since 2010. Societe Generale SA's Michael Haigh, who also correctly forecast 2013's slump, said in a July 11 report that he expects the metal will drop about 5 percent by the fourth quarter. Defying the analysts, money mangers are now holding the biggest bet on a bullion rally since 2012 as prices posted the longest streak of weekly gains in three years. Related: Gold Set for Biggest Loss of 2014 as Portugal Woes Ease "Some people are moving into inflationary hedge assets," Currie, the bank's global commodities research head with a Ph.D in economics from the University of Chicago, said in a July 11 telephone interview. "Gold will start moving lower once there is more confidence in the recovery, without significant inflationary concerns." Prices will "likely end lower this year," he said. Futures gained 1.3 percent last week to $1,337.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York, a sixth straight advance and the longest streak since August 2011. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials climbed 3.4 percent this year, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 5.3 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index increased 3.3 percent. Gold futures fell 2.3 percent today to $1,306.70 in New York. The net-long position in gold rose 5.4 percent to 144,272 futures and options contracts in the week to July 8, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. That's the highest since November 2012. Short holdings have fallen for five straight weeks. The Rise and Fall of Gold After 12 straight years of gains, gold tumbled 28 percent in 2013 as an equity rally prompted some investors to lose their faith in the metal. U.S. consumer costs rose 1.5 percent in the 12 months through December, compared with an average of 2.4 percent in the previous decade. The inflation rate rebounded to 2.1 percent in May, the latest government data show. Currie on April 10, 2013, issued a sell recommendation, before a two-day 13 percent plunge that ended April 15, 2013, and left prices in a bear market. The slump wasn't foreseen by most money mangers, who had increased their bullish bets by 11 percent the prior month. The investors cut holdings to a six-year low by December. Currie Forecast Now, Currie expects bullion to drop to $1,050 by the end of 2014, maintaining a forecast from the start of the year. SocGen's Haigh sees the metal at $1,245 in the fourth quarter. Investors aren't convinced prices will fall. After violence spread in Iraq and Ukraine and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low, the need for a haven asset resurfaced and gold was back in favor. Holdings in bullion-backed ETPs rose for three straight weeks through July 11, the longest stretch in four months. Last year, more than $73 billion was wiped from the value of funds as investors sold 869 metric tons of the metal. Interest Rates Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, about 3 percent at the beginning of the year, have come down to 2.5 percent, as the Fed has signaled it's in no rush to boost interest rates. The central bank in June repeated its view that the rates are likely to stay low "for a considerable time." Goldman this month revised its forecast for higher borrowing costs to the third quarter of 2015, rather than the first three months of 2016, citing an accelerating economy. Bullion jumped 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought debt and held borrowing costs at an all-time low. "There have been too many bears in the woods in spite of gold climbing," George Gero, New York-based precious metals strategist who helps manage $500 million at RBC Capital Markets LLC, said July 10. "Geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world and economic surprises are attracting more investors. Probably we will see a re-rating of those bearish forecasts." Bullion is still down 32 percent from an all-time high of $1,923.70 reached in September 2011 as the U.S. economy showed signs of sustained growth. Jobless claims declined to 304,000 in the week ended July 5, the fewest in more than a month, a government report showed July 10. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose to a record this month. Commodity Wagers Combined net-wagers across 18 U.S. traded commodities fell 8.9 percent to 1.17 million contracts as of July 8, the CFTC data show. Bets on rising oil prices fell 7.8 percent to 304,366 contracts, while those for copper surged 55 percent to 38,367, the highest since December 2010. A measure of net-long positions across 11 agricultural products slumped 14 percent to 515,996 contracts, the lowest since February. Cotton holdings fell to the lowest this year, and wagers on a decline for wheat expanded for a fifth straight week. Investors are holding the smallest bet on a soybean rally since they were net-short in December 2011. Prices in Chicago fell for 10 straight sessions through July 11, the longest slump since 1973. U.S. stockpiles will more than double before the start of the 2015 harvest, the government said last week. "Earlier this year, it was all about agriculture prices rallying because of weather, but supplies have come back so quickly that we have seen a big reversal," Jack Ablin, who helps manage $66 billion in assets as chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank in Chicago, said July 10. "People have become more comfortable about the global crop situation." |
| 15 July 2014 - 葡萄牙危机及印黄金关税致金价上扬 Posted: 15 Jul 2014 06:06 PM PDT From:http://finance.ccb.com/Info/72480077 来源：环球网 2014年07月14日 据英国路透社7月11日报道，金价于10日触及三个半月高位，因对葡萄牙最大上市银行财务问题的忧虑刺激避险买盘，且印度保持黄金进口关税在纪录高位，可能促使稍早未购买黄金的交易商重返市场。 欧美股市下跌，避险日元触及数个月高位，因对葡萄牙最大上市银行必利胜银行（BES）财务问题的忧虑提醒投资者警惕欧洲银行业再陷危机的可能性。 汇丰的金属分析师兼高级副总裁James Steel称，"客观地讲，金价在过去一段时间一直呈上行趋势，未受太多的卖盘阻碍，因欧洲和中东的地缘政治风险，以及美联储坚称升息尚需时日。" 葡萄牙最大的上市银行BES的最大股东Espirito Santo Financial Group 暂停了该行的股票和债权交易，称因其母公司ESI出现"重大困难"。这是今年欧元区二线公债市场首次出现重大的忧虑蔓延的情况，限制了对希腊在2012年违约后第二次发债的需求。 报道指出，在10日公布的预算中，印度决定保持进口关税在10%的纪录高位，迫使因预计关税将被下调而离场观望的珠宝商重新补充库存。此举也支撑金价涨势，推动交投较活跃的8月期金上扬多达3%。其他贵金属也攀升，铂金系金属触及数月高位。 |
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