Sell gold | RBI Will <b>Sell Gold</b> in India, Buy Gold Abroad, Ease Supply | Capital <b>...</b> |
- RBI Will <b>Sell Gold</b> in India, Buy Gold Abroad, Ease Supply | Capital <b>...</b>
- India's Central Bank Will <b>Sell Gold</b> on the Market in Exchange for <b>...</b>
- Tom McClellan On July <b>Sell</b>-Off, Bull Market Peak, And <b>Gold</b> Bottom <b>...</b>
- Serbia: People <b>sell</b> family <b>gold</b> with historical value to survive <b>...</b>
RBI Will <b>Sell Gold</b> in India, Buy Gold Abroad, Ease Supply | Capital <b>...</b> Posted: 06 Jul 2014 08:22 PM PDT With the large duty on Gold imports, and very large gold requirements in an inflationary economy, the issue of "how can we reduce Gold imports" has driven RBI to an interesting solution. Economic Times reports that RBI will swap Gold it owns in India for Gold deliverable in London. The official reason is that the Gold is sought to be replaced with that of a purer variety.
But what does this swap really do? Ease Gold Supply in India Without Hitting CADSince RBI will sell gold in India to Banks who can sell onward to jewellers, the supply issues in India will ease. Currently, Banks import Gold for jewellers, who have to pay upfront, and then they can only reimport another batch if 20% of the last batch has been exported. And then, there's a 10% duty on imported gold. If the RBI were to swap, for instance, 10% of it's gold, that's an additional 50 tons of gold (1/10th of its holding) that would be 50 tons less that was imported. In context, that's about a month's requirement of imports. Why will it not impact the CAD? Effectively, Swaps Dollars for Rupees, Contracts Money SupplyWhen RBI buys gold in India it will receive rupees. The purchase in London will be paid for in Dollars. Those dollars are already owned by the RBI as forex reserves. So effectively, the RBI will sell dollars it owns and the rupees it receives will go out of circulation. In that context, the quantum of gold sold will impact money supply, a little bit. India owns $21 billion of gold, worth about Rs. 120,000 cr. (1.2 trillion), so a 10% contraction is about Rs. 12,000 cr. A reduction of money supply by 12,000 cr. is not a big deal, and can be replenished easily; the RBI routinely buys dollars by printing rupees anyhow, and it can do an OMO auction to buy bonds. Capital Mind ViewThis is good for Gold companies, but only if the quantum is known. If the RBI does this for tiny amounts, it's insignificant. If it swaps more than 50 tons, it will help ease supply pressure in the next 6 months. In any case we expect a graded withdrawal of limits on gold imports and the import duty over the next year. In fact, we expect an announcement of the process in the budget, followed by RBI in it's next Policy statement in August. If you ask us about how it impacts markets, then our answer in the current situation is: everything will impact the market positively nowadays. There is no news that can even be considered remotely negative. So, that. |
India's Central Bank Will <b>Sell Gold</b> on the Market in Exchange for <b>...</b> Posted: 02 Jul 2014 03:35 PM PDT First a little history. Indians were buying too much gold for their government's comfort, so the "authorities" stepped in with duties and import restrictions in an attempt to stifle the trade. So smuggling soared. Fast forward to today. It appears the government has finally realized they can't stop their citizens penchant for gold, so they have decided to dump central bank gold onto the market. What is incredible to me is that they are justifying this with a so-called "swap" into phantom gold at the Bank of England. The favored global hub of shady, rent-seeking, banker oligarchs. Read more here. |
Tom McClellan On July <b>Sell</b>-Off, Bull Market Peak, And <b>Gold</b> Bottom <b>...</b> Posted: 07 Jul 2014 03:38 PM PDT By FS Staff In a recent interview with Financial Sense, well-known market technician Tom McClellan says current sentiment is "horribly bullish" with the market probably due for a big sell-off this month. Although cautious in the short term, McClellan does not believe we are approaching a bull market peak and cites an interesting relationship between stocks and oil prices, which projects a top sometime around 2018. Here are a few excerpts from his interview that aired on Saturday (click here for audio): Financial Sense: Tom, is there anything out there that you're seeing technically that would tell you it's time to get a little cautious here-maybe take some profits off the table? Tom McClellan: Well, sentiment is horribly bullish. That sounds like a terribly contradictory phrase, "horribly bullish." But when everybody is already bullish, they can't get more bullish; but they can get more bearish. We've seen really low levels on the VIX. And now we've seen low VIX levels that have not been confirming the latest additional higher highs [in the market]. Normally, when the S&P 500 makes a higher price high, you get a lower low in the VIX. Well, we now have a divergence in the VIX where the VIX seems to be making a higher low, and that is a big warning sign and a big trading setup for the type of selloff that I think we're due for, probably in July. Financial Sense: So, do you think the market could be forming a major top right now? Tom McClellan: I don't look for a bear market anytime soon. And the leading indications that we follow when I've talked about it at on a chart on the home page of our website (see chart below), if you look at what crude oil prices were doing ten years ago, that tells you what stock prices are going to be doing now. And ten years ago, crude oil prices were still in the middle of a long bull market leading up to the 2008 top. So, spring forward ten years, and stock prices are now in a long bull market leading up to a top due in 2018 plus or minus. But along the way, you've got to have some texture; you can't go in a very linear precise uptrend. You've got to wiggle the pen as you draw the chart on the graph paper. You don't ever get to draw just only with a straight edge. And that's the kind of market we've been in, so we need to have a little bit of a scary event. Oil prices could do it; geopolitics could do it; some FED official saying something inappropriate could do it. I'm not sure what the cause is going to be, I just see the conditions ripe for an avalanche, but a small avalanche of limited magnitude.
Financial Sense: And Tom, if that were to happen, what type of areas do you think will do well coming out of a correction? Tom McClellan: Housing related stocks should do well until about January 2015. So the next six months looks like a great time for the housing sector. Now I don't have any individual picks within that sector, but the overall sector as depicted by the HGX Index or by ITB as an ETF you can trade that tracks that. And I also think that inflation is going to rise for the next six months; I'm talking about CPI inflation. I'm not sure about anybody else's definition, but I think that we are due to see from some of the leading indications a continuing rise of inflation. But then, inflation rates should start going back down again in 2015. So only between about now and December/January should we see a big rise in actual CPI inflation rates. We'll still be worried about inflation rates well into 2015 because it takes a long time for the worry to go back down when the turn has already happened, but I think that inflation numbers are going to pick up. Financial Sense: Along the lines of inflation, what is your take on gold here? I mean, it's got a little spark to it and we're also seeing, unlike what we've seen in the past, some very good movement in the gold stocks. If you take a look at some things like the GDX and the HUI, they are up quite substantially this year. Tom McClellan: They are and it's a little bit early. There is an important 13.5 month cycle in gold prices that's been going on for the last couple of decades at least. And it's due for its bottom, ideally, in the month of July. Well, gold started up early so either that cycle bottom was put in earlier than it was supposed to or we're seeing a phenomenon that quite often happens with gold as it's making a last dying gasp right before the real bottom of that cycle, which is to have a late blow off and one more sell off. I think we're going to see one more sell off in gold prices that will surprise all the guys that rushed in to by the gold stocks and they'll start hating gold again. And when everybody starts really really hating gold again, right after that sell off, then it would be the time to buy for a really strong up phase of gold as it starts its next 13.5 month cycle. But I think that it's a little bit too premature and I think there was a little bit too much eagerness of people to rush back into gold on this little bit of strength. So that tells me that … no, they haven't been slapped down hard enough yet, and gold's still got that mission to do before this real bottom is done. Financial Sense: If we we're to sum up, you don't see any signs of a market top or this bull market coming to an end. We may get a correction here in the short term, but in your opinion, that's going to present another buying opportunity. Tom McClellan: That's very well said. We're still in a long-term uptrend. It's gotten to an overdone point within the uptrend. You don't ever keep going up. You go up three steps forward and two steps back. So you've got to have a little bit of a pullback now just to keep the market healthy. A farmer has to let a field lie fallow every once in a while, we have to have winter come along to get all the leaves off the trees so that the new leaves can grow. It's that sort of a thing that is normal, natural and healthy; and we're due for one. Seeking Alpha PRO helps fund managers:
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Serbia: People <b>sell</b> family <b>gold</b> with historical value to survive <b>...</b> Posted: 06 Jul 2014 07:54 AM PDT BELGRADE - If you've recently walked downtown Belgrade, you could notice a large number of shops dealing with the purchase of gold, silver and antiques. The situation is similar in all other major cities in Serbia. The increase in the number of businesses of this kind has been especially noticeable in the last 10 years, and a large number of exchange offices began to engage in this type of business, as an additional source of income. It is not hard to see why. Serbia has been, for a long time, in a precarious financial situation, and majority of its citizens are literally struggling to survive. The increasing taxes demanded by the state, unemployment and average income which is not sufficient for the state nominated "minimal consumer bag" (the cost per month of necessary groceries for a family, enough not to die of hunger or malnutrition), have forced Serbian citizens to sell their family gold, silver and objects of historical importance at any price. Do not take photos, do not mention my nameIn front of one "gold-to-cash" shop in the heart of Belgrade, we saw a decrepit old woman, dressed in a visibly over-worn T shirt with inscription "Metallica". She carried black, opaque bag, with something bulky inside. The woman entered the shop, and we saw through the window that it was a large candlestick, probably made of silver. After about 10 minutes the woman came out of the store, a little scared. We waited for her to get a little further from the shop, approached and asked her: "Excuse us, do you perhaps know does anyone here buys old items made of silver and gold?" "Here, young man, you have a shop right here (she points with her hand), they have the best prices in the city, my daughter told me so, and they are honest," she said. "Have you sold them anything yet?" we asked. "Yes, son, when trouble catches you, you have to sell, what can you do," she said. We entered the shop carrying two things – silver item of a former Yugoslav statesmen, estimated to be worth about $200 in a German auction house, as well as a golden chain whose purchasing price was about $320. The candlestick of impressive size stands behind the counter on a table. We give the silver object to be estimated. A worker in the shop takes it, examines it, puts it on the scale and finally says:"For this, I can give you maximum 4,000 dinars (~$45). It has 166 grams, purity is 800, and the question is whether the whole thing is made of silver, or is it just outside, it has to be checked. This is the best I can offer". To our warning that on the back of the object is engraved inscription, that the object is probably important to collectors and that it is unique, an older man interferes in the talk. Until then he was sitting aside and reading newspapers. He took the object, examined it and said:"Because of the engravings I can give you 1,000 dinars over the price, but not more. So in total 5,000 dinars (~60), take it or leave it." While we talked to the elderly gentleman, three more people entered the store and waited. We gave the golden chain for evaluation. The worker examined it, measured and said: "For the chain I can give you 9,400 dinars ($110)." Obviously unsatisfied that we are creating a line and we still haven't decided which object to sell, the older man hurries us. We decided to risk and introduce ourselves. We told him that we are journalists and that we would like to ask him a few questions. Seeing camera and Dictaphone we prepared, the man became extremely aggressive. "Get out you scum. Get out! Do not take photos or mention my name. Get out you bastards!" I am a craftsman, I have children, I know nothingNear a famous Belgrade green market, we entered another shop that purchase gold and silver. We showed them the silver item, and told them right away about the inscription. They directed us to another shop and told us to ask for Ratko (not his real name). We found the store and Ratko, the shop is empty. We gave him the item, and immediately introduced ourselves and ask him to answer a few simple questions. Initially confused, Ratko took the object, examined it, measured and said: "This, only in silver, is worth about 7,000 dinars (~$80). Maybe it is better if you offer it to collectors via Internet. Which questions you wanted to ask me?" At the moment we were declaiming the questions, a man enters the shop, a worker or owner, and immediately went behind the counter. Ratko's mood to talk to us disappeared at the same moment. "Look, I am only a craftsman, I have been doing this for 30 years. I do not know what you are asking me. There are all kinds of situations. It is not like people talk, I do not know what to tell you. I have children, I do not want trouble, please understand my position." We went to the next shop in one of Belgrade's underground passages. We waited in line. A girl before us sells a golden ring and a golden ornament for a tie. The silver object was here estimated to be worth about 3,000 dinars ($35), with the story that "the purity is 800, they need 912″ and that "it is the biggest price we can get anywhere in the city". We introduced ourselves, explained that we are journalists, and asked if we can ask a few questions, and, at the same moment, we were politely asked to leave the shop and not to come back. We were treated the same way in a couple of other shops. It has never been worseWhat we have noticed is that all those engaged in the purchase of silver and gold do not want to be photographed, their name mentioned, and they do not like journalists. Luckily, there are still people who are ready to openly talk about everything. A woman, to whom we will refer to as Ljilja, has been engaged in the trade with antiquities, numismatics, philately, autographs, anything that has any value, for almost 40 years, and is very well-informed about the collectibles in Serbia. She asked us not to photograph her, or record the conversation and not to publish her name. "It has never been worse. Nor there are people in Serbia, collectors, who can afford to pay for what they want, nor there are objects of interest. And prices have drastically decreased. People give things from their homes for almost nothing. Those are things that have historical importance, and all those things end up across the border. All sorts of things are sold, at prices that are far from the catalog values," said Ljilja. "Important postal stamps were sold for a pittance. So-called collectors buy them and then resell them over the Internet, buyers and the price are already known in advance. Majority of people does not know what they are selling, but they have to in order to survive. The trend, as well as the fact that true collectors do not have money for their hobby, drastically decreases the value of everything. There is almost no point in buying catalogue with prices, as in Serbia everything is far below real price," said Ljilja. "The market is flooded with people who sell everything they have, they have to do it in order to survive. It is no longer collectibles, or cleaning the basement or attic. This is a must, you can see it in their eyes as soon as they enter the shop. There are some really valuable things, but also items that are not worth. Recently a woman offered me a telegram from 1918, and I had to tell her that it really has no value, and she begged me to buy it for at least 10 euros, because it is from 1918, it has to be worth something. It is difficult today in Serbia, really, I can't remember it has ever been like this," said Ljilja. "I recently heard that a Relay of Youth baton (Stafeta Mladosti) was for sale. The man could not have sold it in Serbia, so he offered it via eBay. I do not known how true the information is, but I heard that he sold it to someone from Portugal for $8,000. The people sell to whomever they can," she said. Marija also keeps an antique shop in Belgrade. She also asked us not to mention her name or photograph her. "There are all kinds of situations. A difficult time has come, people have no money. Gold and silver are sold for a pittance. Mostly elderly people, retired, although there also a lot of young people, bring things that are worth, but as not as much as they ask for them. Whether someone gave them wrong information, or they assume the price on their own, they sometimes ask for four times more value that the item is worth. When I show them the price in the catalogue at first they think that I want to trick them, but when they realize that it is not my intention, because I can not buy it due to the lack of money, they leave disappointed as the whole world has collapsed," said Marija. "Gold and silver. It always goes. I do not buy it, unless it has some historical importance, and if I manage to get rid of some of the things you see here [in the shop]. Otherwise, there is no money. People are selling more over the Internet. Antiques shops in Serbia, I know from my own example, do not have so much work anymore. Nobody buys anything, they all want to sell. Prices went down. I heard, there are stories that many valuable things from Obrenovic family period ended up outside Serbia. These items are unique, things that would be in prime locations in museums. It is terrible, you know," said Marija. At our comment about large number of shops for the purchase of gold and silver in Belgrade, Marija said: "Two or three people holds all shops - everything is theirs, it does not matter who they are. If I know who they are, obviously the state also knows and lets them do business. They know that there is no more money "under the mattress", and that people are massively selling everything that has any value. They buy everything for nothing, what has no historical value they melt and resell, what has any value outside the value of the gold and silver itself, all that ends up outside of Serbia. It is carried out in every possible way. My heart bleeds when I think about how many things of historical importance for Serbia has ended up outside of the country. And how many more will go. The state does not do anything to stop all this, and people can not eat gold," said Marija. Wrapping up our tour of Belgrade "gold-to-cash" type of shops, in a street that carries the name of a Serbian queen, we saw a line in front of a small office. The inconspicuous inscription on the window says "Gold to Cash – Highest prices guaranteed". |
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