7 July 2014 - Harga Emas Kembali Berkilau Usai Tertekan Data Pekerjaan AS |
- 7 July 2014 - Harga Emas Kembali Berkilau Usai Tertekan Data Pekerjaan AS
- 7 July 2014 - Rising Rates "Positive for Gold"
- 7 July 2014 - Price of gold set to rise as price fixing under review
- 7 July 2014 - 黄金3季度风险测评：我们或许有理由更加乐观
- 4 July 2014 - Ketegangan Irak dan Ukraina Picu Harga Emas Makin Berkilau
- 4 July 2014 - Now is the time to buy gold – Nichols
- 4 July 2014 - Gold Conspiracy? Nope, Janet Yellen
- 4 July 2014 - 宝鑫盈贵金属：非农不跌反涨什么让黄金白银逆天
- 3 July 2014 - Pernyataan Yellen Bikin Harga Emas Merangkak Naik
- 3 July 2014 - Indian Central Bank plans to swap Gold to improve reserves quality
| 7 July 2014 - Harga Emas Kembali Berkilau Usai Tertekan Data Pekerjaan AS Posted: 07 Jul 2014 03:31 AM PDT From:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2073383/harga-emas-kembali-berkilau-usai-tertekan-data-pekerjaan-as by Nurmayanti 05 Jul 2014 08:31 Liputan6.com, London - Harga emas menguat tipis pada perdagangan di akhir pekan ini. Penyebabnya antara lain dukungan dari saham-saham Eropa dan luka usai dirlisnya data pekerjaan AS yang positif mengangkat dolar. Harga emas di pasar spot sebelumnya turun 21 sen menjadi US$ 1.319,49 per ounce. Angka ini lebih rendah 1,2 persen ke posisi terendah dalam sepekan di US$ 1.309,64 setelah nonfarm payrolls AS rilis. Kemudian emas berjangka AS untuk pengiriman Agustus naik 50 sen pada US$ 1.321 per ounce. Kondisi perekenomian yang membaik memberikan kerugian ke pasar yang mengharapkan tanda-tanda yang lebih makro pada kekuatan ekonomi global. Pertumbuhan lapangan kerja AS melonjak pada Juni dan tingkat pengangguran ditutup pada posisi terendah dalam enam tahun. Hal ini memberikan bukti pertumbuhan ekonomi menuju ke paruh kedua tahun ini. Data-data yang membaik memicu spekulasi Federal Reserve AS Bisa menaikkan suku bunga lebih awal dari yang diharapkan. "Pada saat ini tampaknya (bagi Fed untuk mulai menaikkan suku) pertengahan tahun depan meski beberapa menyarankan di kuartal pertama sebagai konsensus. Maka kita akan melihat emas di bawah US$ 1.300," kata analis Societe Generale Robin Bhar melansir laman Reuters. Dolar naik 0,1 persen terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama, memegang posisi di bawah puncak satu minggu. Sementara saham Eropa bercampur karena investor mengambil kesempatan untuk mengunci keuntungan dari keuntungan sejak Maret. Penguatan mata uang AS membuat aset berdenominasi dolar seperti emas lebih mahal bagi investor asing. (Nrm) Source:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2073383/harga-emas-kembali-berkilau-usai-tertekan-data-pekerjaan-as |
| 7 July 2014 - Rising Rates "Positive for Gold" Posted: 07 Jul 2014 03:29 AM PDT From:http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/karr-inflation-070320145 Thursday, 7/03/2014 11:22 Higher rates will signal rising inflation, with the Eurozone moving to print money... EDWARD KARR is founder of RAMPartners S.A., an investment management and investment banking firm based in Geneva. Here he tells The Gold Report why European bankers are destined to inflate their way out of structural crisis and why that is good news for the price of gold. Karr believes gold has bottomed and should explode upward. The Gold Report: Let's talk about the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) of 2010. What is the FATCA regulation? Edward Karr: In March 2010, Congress passed the Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act. The HIRE Act was intended to stimulate domestic jobs in the US FATCA was quietly slipped in as a very small part of the HIRE Act. In a nutshell, FATCA makes every overseas bank, financial company, hedge fund, mutual fund, broker, and dealer an enforcement agent of the US Internal Revenue Service. Starting July 1, 2014, these financial institutions are required to turn over their data on US clients' and US persons' accounts. Implementing FATCA is costly because many foreign financial institutions did not have the compliance systems and information technology in place to report on US persons' holdings. Banks are being forced to spend tens of millions of Dollars to upgrade their systems. And if they do not provide the information to the US, the penalties are extremely severe. The US government can levy a 30% withholding penalty on any business that the institution does in the US, including trading US Dollars, equities, bonds and fixed income instruments. Noncompliance effectively locks a firm out of the US markets. TGR: FATCA was set up to stop people from cheating on their taxes; will it have some effect? Edward Karr: FATCA goes after a mosquito with a sledgehammer – or in mining terms, uses a D11 bulldozer to move a small pebble. There are 7.6 million US citizens living outside the US who are caught up in this war on tax evasion. However, an organization called Republicans Overseas is launching a constitutional challenge to FATCA lawyered by Jim Bopp. He is the attorney who took down the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law in the Supreme Court. Bopp is confident that FATCA will be overturned. TGR: Looking forward, then, what is the economic outlook in Europe for gold, commodities and stocks? Edward Karr: The overall European economic outlook is the same muddle-through situation that has dominated the continent for the last couple of years: slow economic growth and possible deflation. After the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the US proactively recapitalized its financial system. The European banks still need to be recapitalized. The European Central Bank (ECB) has done a really good job in defending the euro, but the underlying problem of high debt levels on the banks' balance sheets has not been addressed. Greece is not really a big problem, but keep a close eye on France. It has a very slow growth rate, high debt levels and is basically an economic train wreck in slow motion. In addition, we are seeing a resurgence of ultranationalism in the polls. Europe desperately needs inflation. Deflation, of course, is a central banker's worst nightmare. The bankers need inflation to avoid deflation. The ECB is going to have to start running the money printing presses around the clock. I just see no other way out of the dilemma. The banks can only inflate their way out of their crushing debt loads. And rising, higher inflation means higher interest rates, which is very positive for the gold markets. TGR: How will higher interest rates impact the gold markets? Edward Karr: As inflation and interest rates rise, so does the consumer demand for gold. People buy gold as a safe haven and a store of value. I have a positive outlook for gold and gold equities as Europe recapitalizes its banking systems and the prices of precious metals explode upward. TGR: What about banking systems in other areas of the world? Edward Karr: China escaped its last financial crisis with a massive government stimulus program. As a result, China is trapped inside one of the biggest credit bubbles in the history of the human race. Some people believe that when the bubble pops there will be a very hard landing. But with the stroke of a pen, the Chinese government can address economic issues much more effectively than a bunch of European bureaucrats sitting around a table. TGR: Will inflation hit the US? Edward Karr: Because the US banking system is in great relative shape, there will be a resurgence of domestic manufacturing. The US has a lot of land and has plenty of capital and technological savvy. It has abundant, cheap energy compared to the rest of the world. As the manufacturing economy takes off, inflation will gradually pick up there, too, which is positive for gold. Today's gold price of $1319 per ounce is the new base price, in my opinion. Precious metal stocks are extremely cheap right now. This is a great time to buy. TGR: Thanks for your time. Source:http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/karr-inflation-070320145 |
| 7 July 2014 - Price of gold set to rise as price fixing under review Posted: 07 Jul 2014 03:26 AM PDT JULY 07, 2014 9:11AM LONDON'S century-old gold price fixing, tainted by a rigging scandal and attacked by critics as old-fashioned, goes under the spotlight this week in key talks aimed at modernising the process. Analysts said that the market price of gold, which is driven by investment and jewellery demand, could climb as a result of an overhaul. Buyers and sellers of the precious metal will meet in London on Monday to discuss the setting of the global benchmark, which affects the flow of billions of dollars worldwide every day. The World Gold Council (WGC) will host an eagerly-awaited forum with retail and central banks, exchanges, mining firms, refiners, traders and other industry groups, while Britain's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) watchdog will attend as an observer. The benchmark gold price is set by four banks at 10:30am London time (0930 GMT) and 3:00pm, via teleconference. The banks — Britain's Barclays and HSBC, Canada's Scotiabank and Societe Generale of France — are all members of the Gold Fixing Company and agree the price twice daily. Germany's Deutsche Bank pulled out of the panel earlier this year. The process begins with the so-called spot price of gold, which is based on the current market rate of contracts for physical delivery of the metal. The four banks must then declare whether they are interested in buying or selling at this level. The price can fluctuate depending on the balance of supply and demand, and settles on a so-called "fixing". The system lurched into crisis this year when Barclays was fined more than 26 million ($45 million, 33 million euros) by the FCA after an ex-trader at the troubled bank admitted attempting to manipulate the gold price. Barclays is among several banks fined billions of dollars by regulators for foreign exchange rigging, prompting a broad review of how global financial benchmarks are set. Critics argue the gold-price fixing process is also open to abuse. "It lacks transparency, which means prices can be rigged to benefit banks, at the expense of producers, traders, investors, jewellers and other market participants," said Mark O'Byrne, research director at broker GoldCore. "Prices should be determined by market forces of supply and demand and not due to a bank's determination." The process is little changed since its creation on September 12, 1919, when the Gold Fixing Company's five founders — including NM Rothschild & Sons — agreed one single daily price fix in British pounds. O'Byrne added: "The gold fix is anachronistic in the modern technological age of electronic trading and a move to electronic trading seems inevitable. At the same time, this will not be a panacea as oversight and transparency remains important." Caroline Bain, senior commodities economist at research consultancy Capital Economics, said transparency was needed to prevent price rigging. "It can be manipulated even though it is based on real deals," Bain told AFP. "Traders working for institutions involved in the 'fix' can make deals that would influence the price in a way that suits their portfolio. "There is a lack of transparency about how the price is derived. It also contributes to a much wider lack of information on the size of the gold market." For its part, the WGC has already stated that the gold market needs greater transparency and auditing of the data used to determine the London price fixings. Between two and four million ounces of physical gold transactions are based on any given day's fix price, according to estimates from commodities research specialist CPM Group. Back in May, Barclays was fined by the FCA for failing to adequately manage conflicts of interest between the bank and its customers. The watchdog uncovered systems and controls failings in relation to a fixed London pricing of gold over a nine-year period to 2013. Bain added: "The case was more about internal problems at Barclays as they were not monitoring the trader's activity, but it did highlight the fact that the gold fix can be manipulated." The gold market remains subject to volatility as the metal is often seen as a haven investment in times of geopolitical uncertainty. In recent weeks, mounting violence in Iraq has sent traders fleeing to gold. Gold jumped last Tuesday to a 3.5-month spot price high of $1,424 per ounce on the London Bullion Market. Prices had rocketed to an all-time peak of $2052 per ounce in September 2011 on fears of a fresh global recession amid the raging eurozone debt crisis. The market could return once more to such levels if the fixing system is overhauled, according to O'Byrne. "We believe that a more transparent and reliable fixing could lead to higher gold prices as we suspect that prices are artificially low at this time and do not reflect the delicate supply demand balance in the physical gold market," he told AFP. "Nor do they capture the degree of systemic and geopolitical risk in the world today." |
| 7 July 2014 - 黄金3季度风险测评：我们或许有理由更加乐观 Posted: 07 Jul 2014 03:24 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-07-07/166369139.html 2014-07-07 07:37:19 来源：FX168 度过7月超级周，贵金属市场正式进入三季度。我们经过对基本面和技术面的整理后发现，或许我们有理由对金、银三季度的走势更加乐观，也更有信心。 超级周的喧嚣终于落幕，周五（7月4日）美国市场因独立纪念日休市，而下周重要经济数据和风险事件也较少，市场料将迎来一段修正时期。而贵金属市场也将正式迎来第三季度的走势。 美元受到良好的就业市场数据提振，自79.75的逾1个半月低位，显著反弹至目前80.20附近。而黄金、白银似乎安然度过美元反弹的攻势，继续保持高位震荡的格局。那么三季度，金、银将如何演绎？当下的关注重点，是否应该有所转移？FX168贵金属频道为您做以下整理。 2.市场情绪：美国股市正在创造"奇迹"，道指突破17000点大关，标普500指数正在逼近2000关口，赶超上证指数的节奏。但投资者似乎并不像表面上那样，毫无顾忌地青睐股票。要不然，如何解释金价的顽强，以及股市活跃性的下降？ 下图为高盛对标普500指数的3年预估。 如果你还记得08年的原油，那么你或许应该知道，高盛的预测不是不能相信，但绝对不能信到最后。 地缘政治也不时为黄金注入活力。伊拉克和乌克兰危机，都有着推动大宗商品价格走高的能量。而以色列、和亚太部分地区也出现局部不稳定的迹象。 基本面重点： 1.美元宏观：美元短线最大的支撑因素已经释放，6月ADP和非农数据分别为28.1万和28.8万人，均远超预期。但金银仍能保持当前形态，值得引起思考。 3.供求关系：印度新政府放松黄金进口限制预期越来越高。交易所积极在亚太推动现货金合约。尽管亚太需求可能不会像去年那样井喷式增长，但前景依然乐观。 4.央行动向：中国推出微刺激；美联储耶伦在最新的IMF活动中再度显露了鸽派立场；连以往最为传统的欧洲央行，也在德拉基治下，准备推出QE。 5.通胀水平：美国CPI年率升至2.1%，PCE物价升至1.8%，美联储仍试图抑制影响；欧元区到底是通缩风险，亦或滞涨风险？或许等德拉基真的推出QE，就会见分晓。 技术面关注重点： 1.黄金：下方1300和1306是短期重要的多空风水岭。站稳保持看多，跌破则可能回调至1287/88。日线级别收盘站上1332可视为强势信号，但最好有MACD重新金叉的辅助。 操作上建议在站稳1300的基础上，尽量减少空单，以逢低买入为主；突破1332可加仓。 2.白银：震荡上行的趋势保持完好，目前需要尽快刷新21.27上方的新高，以延续市场信心。日内21.00是重要风水岭。更长周期来看，下方趋势线将是重要的多空分界。 操作上建议，在保持当前趋势情况下，减少空单，以逢低买入为主，20.90下方是理想买点。 总结： 自1975年以来，3季度以及整个下半年一直是黄金的强势周期。从上述技术面和基本面分析来看，我们有理由更加积极地看待黄金在未来3个月的表现。 |
| 4 July 2014 - Ketegangan Irak dan Ukraina Picu Harga Emas Makin Berkilau Posted: 04 Jul 2014 10:41 AM PDT From:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2071636/ketegangan-irak-dan-ukraina-picu-harga-emas-makin-berkilau Ekonomi 02 Jul 2014 07:50 Liputan6.com, Chicago - Harga emas berjangka di divisi Comex New York Mercantile Exchange ditutup naik pada Selasa (Rabu pagi WIB) ke level tertinggi sejak 14 April karena ketegangan di Ukraina dan Irak. Mengutip Xinhua, Rabu (2/7/2014), harga kontrak emas paling aktif untuk pengiriman Agustus naik US$ 4,6 atau 0,35 persen menjadi US$ 1.326,6 per ounce. Harga perak untuk pengiriman September naik 6 sen atau 0,3 persen menjadi US$ 21,12 per ounce. Platinum untuk pengiriman Oktober naik US$ 32,1 atau 2,2 persen menjadi US$ 1.515 per ounce. Ketegangan di Ukraina memicu harga emas menguat. Pertempuran meningkat setelah Presiden Ukraina Petro Poroshenko menyatakan mengakhiri gencatan senjata yang gagal menghentiken kekerasan di wilayah itu. Sementara di Irak, parlemen baru gagal untuk memberikan Nouri al-Maliki sebagai Perdana Menteri. Namun angka pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) positif menahan laju penguatan harga emas. The Institute for Supply Management melaporkan indeks manufaktur merosot tipis ke 55,3 pada Juni dari periode Mei di kisaran 55,4. Meski demikian, indeks untuk pesanan barunya naik 2 poin menjadi 58,9 dari 56,9. Data ekonomi positif ini berdampak ke reli bursa saham AS sehingga sejumlah investor menjauhi investasi emas. Sementara itu, SPDR Gold Trust melaporkan ada peningkatan transaksi emas terbesar dalam lima minggu. Transaksi naik menjadi 25,4 juta ounce pada Senin pekan ini dari 25,2 juta pada pekan lalu. (Ahm/) (Agustina Melani) Source:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2071636/ketegangan-irak-dan-ukraina-picu-harga-emas-makin-berkilau |
| 4 July 2014 - Now is the time to buy gold – Nichols Posted: 04 Jul 2014 10:39 AM PDT From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=246411&sn=Detail Author: Lawrence Williams Posted: Friday , 04 Jul 2014 LONDON (MINEWEB) - One of the problems facing the potential gold investor who may see the longer term future of the precious metal as being decidedly positive, is when to actually step in and buy bullion, bullion related securities or gold stocks. Respected New York gold analyst, Jeff Nichols, feels that the time may well be now. Nichols recommends holding a proportion (perhaps 5-10%) of one's investment portfolio in physical gold, thus providing a variety of benefits – portfolio appreciation, diversification, reduced portfolio volatility, risk reduction, inflation protection, and more. Given that Nichols describes himself as not being a 'gold-bug' he does reckon to be 'super-bullish' on gold's longer term prospects. His views on gold's likely future appreciation are largely predicated on the growing incomes and expanding middle class sector in China and India, the world's two largest consumers of gold – and which recent research suggests may, between them, be accounting for the consumption of virtually all the world's newly mined gold output. While short term geopolitical factors may contribute to ebbs and flows in the gold price, Nichols reckons that basic fundamentals provide the key to gold price growth in the longer term with the ever increasing consumption in the Asian and Middle eastern economies in particular, while new mined output remains pretty flat and shows little signs of any significant growth in the years ahead. But perhaps even more importantly Nichols comments that the weak performance in the gold price over the past two to three years has been largely due to perceived short term returns in the general equities markets being far superior to those likely to be achieved in gold. As this momentum gathered it was seen in particular with the huge outflows from the gold ETFs last year while the overall stock market went from strength to strength. But this may all be due for a change! There seems to be an increasing feeling within the investment community that the equities market may well be at or near a peak. In the U.S. in particular, stock prices have tended to advance at a faster rate than can be justified by corporate earnings growth – and indeed, contrary to many experts' claims, the return to growth in the general economy has fallen far short of government forecasts. And in the Eurozone too a return to economic growth has not really been seen and unemployment remains unacceptably high. Nichols feel that the general equities market is heading for a change in relative performance. Indeed, he reckons the various measures of stock-market valuation, such as the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio, are at or above levels that have signalled past Wall Street reversals. And, similarly, after achieving record highs earlier this year, the two-month decline in NYSE margin debt may also be signalling an equity market correction – or worse! And, outflows from the gold ETFs also seem to have run their course – recently, for example, we have been seeing some inflows. Last year some 880 tonnes of gold were disinvested from the world's major gold ETFs, which not surprisingly, given that this is equivalent to around 30% of global gold output, is seen as a major contributor to gold's dismal performance during the period. While there is some evidence of a decline in China's vast appetite for gold this year as against last year's record, gold consumption there remains robust and the difference with 2013 has been significantly more than countered by the turnaround in the gold ETFs. With U.S. economic growth failing to impress there also seems to be the likelihood that the U.S. Fed will continue to run an accommodative economic policy (low interest rates and some QE continuation) for the foreseeable future, and probably for longer than the markets had been expecting. An end to the Fed's accommodative policies had been seen as a negative for gold given its big rise during the initial stages of QE – but, in truth, gold had been rising strongly before the term Quantitative Easing had even been coined so the twoslightly are not necessarily complementary factors in the gold price equation. However – in a perhaps sarcastic note – Nichols comments that he views the gold market in a distinctly positive light even should he be wrong on the vulnerabilities of the general equities markets. "Even if we're wrong," he says, "and somehow world stock and bond markets continue moving higher for years to come, and the U.S. and other major economies return to health with sustainable growth, and somehow the Fed pulls a rabbit out of a hat engineering a return to normative monetary policies – even if we're wrong, gold will still appreciate smartly over the years to come on the strength of Asian demand with China and India leading the way as voracious gold consumers." He goes on to point out the huge difference in gold investment patterns between East and West. In the West, most big investors are looking for short term gains and thus flit between what are seen as the latest 'hot' investment options. In the East, gold tends to be held for the long term and seldom comes back into the marketplace except in times of severe financial stress. What the ongoing movement of gold from West to East suggests, given that Eastern demand may well equate to, or exceed, newly mined gold production, is the likelihood of consequent gold bullion shortages developing in the West with a corresponding rise in values wholly on supply/demand patterns. Thus, Nichols concludes, "Watch out for higher prices ahead". What we might add to Nichols' views is that the rise and fall of activity in the gold market is very much down to sentiment. Back in 2010 to 2012 the general feeling in the investment sector appeared to be that gold was set on an ever-upwards path and the price rose accordingly. Even bank analysts seemed to concur at the time. But come the market peak, and subsequent price decline, views changed, tthe gold bears crowed, the media changed its views, bank analysts all started predicting further downturns ahead and the gold market totally lost its glister. Now, this downturn phase could possibly be coming to an end, although most bank analysts seem to remain bearish. However, these ranks may be beginning to break. Are we seeing the necessary change in perception for gold which would put prices back on the upwards path again? It's probably too early to tell yet, but we have been seeing a definite shift is sentiment vis-a-vis gold this year from outright bearish to cautious. It's not yet reached the optimistic or truly bullish stage, but we could well be on the cusp of a sea change and the tide could start flowing for gold again as Nichols suggests. The next few months could well be setting the direction of the precious metal for the future. Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=246411&sn=Detail |
| 4 July 2014 - Gold Conspiracy? Nope, Janet Yellen Posted: 04 Jul 2014 10:23 AM PDT From:http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/rick-mills-070320141 Thursday, 7/03/2014 10:55 RICK MILLS is the owner and host of Aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 400 websites. Today he says juniors can't fund their projects, which means that the majors' reserves will continue to shrink. Rick Mills here tells The Gold Report's sister title, The Mining Report, that this process can have but one result: higher metals prices across the board... The Mining Report: Last month, the price of gold rose over 3% in one day. Can we ascribe this to the conflicts in Ukraine and Iraq or the unraveling of Chinese commodity financing deals? Rick Mills: I don't think those things had anything to do with it. The unraveling of Chinese commodity financing deals was mostly about copper. While the situation in the Middle East is certainly affecting the price of oil, I believe that Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has more to do with the price of gold than anything else going on in the world today. TMR: You're referring to her press conference of June 18? Rick Mills: Yes. She confirmed that the tapering of bond buying will continue, but more important was her announcement that the Fed's zero interest rate policy will continue. Real interest rates are going to remain low for a while yet; that news caused gold's price to increase. Below is a chart created by US Global Investors. It shows in stark clarity the relationship between real interest rates and gold's price. TMR: Many goldbugs believe gold and silver prices are manipulated downward by central banks. Do you agree? Rick Mills: No, I don't. I almost wish it were true. If it were, I could sit back and play the markets knowing exactly what was going to happen next. This claim of manipulation is just an excuse for being constantly wrong. It's a business model to sell gold off your website and expensive newsletter subscriptions. Learning about sector rotation and macro events will make you a much better investor than clinging to conspiracy theories. TMR: Do you have any thoughts on where the prices of gold and silver will go in the second half of 2014? Rick Mills: Higher sooner rather than later. That goes for copper, nickel, tin, zinc and pretty much any mineral. It's a question of supply and demand. Junior resource companies own the world's future deposits. They buy claims from prospectors, work the projects and advance them to where they are bought by larger companies. And these mining juniors cannot get funding. So how will the majors replace their reserves? The answer is that they can't. It's just a matter of time before metals prices react to physical shortages. Think about it, when was the last time you heard of a major mining company making a discovery? TMR: You've written at length about rising global scarcity of resources. What effects will this have on metals prices? Rick Mills: We live on a planet with a finite resource base with a growing population. We reached 7 billion people in October 2011. The United Nations says we can probably expect upward of 10 billion people by 2050. Other reports claim that world population will reach 11.4 billion by the 2060s. Norman Borlaug, the father of the green revolution, said if we do everything that he has shown us, and there are no black swans, the earth could support 10 billion people at most. Ecological overshoot is coming. Our freshwater aquifers, probably our most important treasure, are being sucked dry by industry and unsustainable drybelt agriculture, and poisoned at the same time through fracking. We're rushing headlong into shortages of resources and the resulting conflicts over them. The low-hanging mineral fruit has been picked. Metallurgy is becoming more complicated, energy is becoming more expensive, and labor shortages loom. The baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, and the resource-orientated talent pool is thinning out. At the same time, massive urbanization is ongoing in Asia and Africa. As people there move into the cities, they climb the protein ladder and eat more dairy products and chicken and beef. They get cell phones and maybe a washer and dryer, air conditioning and a motorcycle. All this puts an enormous strain on supply. Metals are going to get much scarcer, and prices are going to get very dear. TMR: You've also written about the return of economic imperialism. Do you foresee superpowers invading countries to secure resources, or will they apply pressure indirectly? Rick Mills: I like Lenin's take on the morphing of early 19th-century imperialism that he called monopoly capitalism – an alliance between big business and banking capital that dominates the state to gain exclusive control of raw materials and control of foreign markets. And both direct and indirect pressure are being applied. Russia has applied force directly in the Crimea and is applying it directly and indirectly in Ukraine. Look at what China is doing to the other stakeholders in the China Seas and what the US did in Libya for control of both water and oil. Countries need to access secure sources of minerals, energy and just basic materials. If they don't, we can expect more Arab Springs, even in developed countries. TMR: When we last spoke, you noted the significantly higher cost of new nickel and copper projects. Where do we stand a year later? Rick Mills: Things have gotten worse. We have not seen the demand destruction that would facilitate a drop in prices, and we're not going to. Even after the unraveling of Chinese commodity financing deals, copper is still over $3 a pound. If you're searching for new copper deposits, you must go farther and farther afield into dangerous country. Nickel is the same. Indonesia, one of the biggest suppliers, has decided to stop exporting raw ore. Nickel comes increasingly from laterites, and the metallurgy just doesn't seem to work on them. As a result, cost overruns are ballooning out of control. TMR: Do you worry that environmentalists could attempt to fence off Greenland as "the world's last great unspoiled wilderness?" Rick Mills: You should talk to the people of Greenland and ask them what they want. That sort of talk more amuses me than anything else. It's easy to preach about freezing somebody else's economic development when you already enjoy a high standard of living. I think most Greenlanders understand that when you have natural resources, you need to exploit them responsibly for the betterment of all. Greenland has one of the world's best reporting and permitting systems. Work is going ahead. TMR: What effect has the new royalty/tax regime had on miners in Mexico? Rick Mills: The cost of doing business, mining, in Mexico has risen; there's no doubt about that. So much will depend on what happens to the price of silver. TMR: Which so-called critical or strategic metal is most interesting to you? Rick Mills: Right now, cobalt. I think a lot of attention is being focused on this metal, and rightly so, with Tesla's "Gigafactory" talk. There's no cobalt production in the US, and I personally don't believe there will be any. Investors will have to start looking farther afield. In Russia, for instance. TMR: Junior miners saw a big surge in share prices last winter. Then there was a big fall off. Might we see another surge this year? Rick Mills: We're not going to stop using metal; we're not going to suddenly stop valuing gold and silver as precious. Majors do not find the worlds mines, juniors do. Juniors' share prices have to go up; the sector has to revive for majors to replace mined reserves. TMR: Rick, thank you for your time and your insights. Source:http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/rick-mills-070320141 |
| 4 July 2014 - 宝鑫盈贵金属：非农不跌反涨什么让黄金白银逆天 Posted: 04 Jul 2014 10:21 AM PDT From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-07-04/166315364.html 2014-07-04 10:21:24 来源：和讯网 和讯特约 现货黄金： 美国劳工部（DOL）周四（7月3日）公布的数据显示，美国6月非农就业人数增加28.8万人，远好于预期的增加21.5万人，同时6月失业率也进一步降至6.1%。数据显示：美国6月非农就业人数增加28.8万人，远超预期的增加21.5万人，前值增加21.7万人；美国6月份失业率录得6.1%，创2008年9月来的新低，预期为6.3%，前值为6.3%。 美国劳工部还将5月非农就业人数上修至增加22.4万人。数据公布后，美元指数快速上行，非美货币纷纷回落，贵金属也受到卖盘打压回落。数据公布后，美元指数快速上行，非美货币纷纷回落，贵金属也受到卖盘打压回落。 4小时图上观察，boll开始收口，整体向上，中轨和MA10位置分别位于1324-1322一线，昨日价格出现反弹后在这里也是再度承压，日内这一线依旧是重点去关注，是日内的第一关键阻力位，如果破位，金价还将测试上方1330-1332，而如果阻力有效，出现回落信号，下方还将测试昨日低点1308一线支撑，日内4小时关注的区间是1310-1324即可，有效破位顺势追单。黄金白银贵宾喊单群12345638验证YY 小时图上看，金价昨日在最低回踩1309一线后，出现快速反弹，附图MACD上观察，DIF上穿DEA于零轴下方出现金叉开口，若能持续发散穿越零轴那么多头还将迎来新的契机，而短期价格受制于MA60均线1324压制。日内操作下方关注1310关键支撑，上方关注1324第一阻力，下方初见1310一线做多，止损1304，目标1315-1318-1322.上方初见1324一线轻仓尝试空单介入，止损1327，目标1320-1318，反弹见1330-1332依旧空，止损1336，目标1326-1324-1320. 现货白银： 现货白银自破位4000后整体呈现强势，在日线收线大阳之后，连续9天整理，在这9天大体上震荡偏强格局，虽然说日线高点每次都刷新，但突破的幅度并不大，表明上方的压制越来越强。 昨日白银开盘于4190一线，亚欧盘时段整体交投非常清淡，30点的波动未能给太多操作机会，美盘时段受到非农数据影响，下方最低试探到4120一线后出现快速反弹，上方最高到4200附近阻力影响，日线上收取一根带长下影的小阴线近似阴T，目前白银的大体震荡区间依旧是在4250-4120之间，日线有效破位该区间，则将顺势发展，4小时上看，银价依旧处布林上下轨间运行，而昨夜受非农利空数据影响最低回踩布林下轨支撑遭遇明显买盘支撑快速反弹，技术面上有探底回升之嫌，短期上行的阻力位于布林上轨4200-4220一线，下方重要支撑4120一线。黄金白银贵宾喊单群12345638验证YY 小时线上看，银价仍处上行通道运行，附图指标MACD，快线上穿慢线，若能穿越零轴实现放量，那么多头还将有进一步上攻。日内操作上行关注4200附近阻力，下方关注4120一线重要支撑，初见4120-30多，止损4094，目标4160-4180-4200.上方初见4200-4210空，止损4250，目标4180-4150-4130 作者观点不代表和讯网立场 |
| 3 July 2014 - Pernyataan Yellen Bikin Harga Emas Merangkak Naik Posted: 03 Jul 2014 03:56 AM PDT From:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2072226/pernyataan-yellen-bikin-harga-emas-merangkak-naik Energi & Tambang 03 Jul 2014 07:40 Ilustrasi Harga Emas Naik (Liputan6.com/Andri Wiranuari) Liputan6.com, New York - Harga emas berjangka merangkak naik setelah Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atau The Federal Reserve (The Fed) menegaskan bahwa mereka masih akan menjaga suku bunga di level rendah dan tetap menjalankan kebijakan stimulus. Ditulis oleh Bloomberg Businessweek, harga emas berjangka untuk pengiriman Agustus naik 0,3 persen menjadi US$ 1,330.90 per ounce pada rabu (2/7/2014) pukul 1.47 waktu New York, di Comex New York Mercantile Exchange. Harga tersebut merupakan kontrak emas tertinggi sejak 24 Maret yang tercatat $ 1,334.90 per ounce. Tadi malam, Gubernur The Fed, Janet Yellen menjelaskan pada International Monetary Fund (IMF) di Washington, AS, bahwa mereka tetap akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level terendah atau mendekati 0 persen dan tetap melanjutkan kebijakan stimulus dengan membeli surat utang jangka panjang. Analis Pasar RJO Futures Chicago, AS, Tom Power menjelaskan, pernyataan dari Yellen tersebut membuat pelaku pasar merasa perlu untuk melindungi nilai aset-asetnya dari kenaikan inflasi dalam rezim suku bunga rendah. "Permintaan akan emas naik dan harga pun juga ikut terangkat," jelasnya. Power melanjutkan, pelaku pasar melihat bahwa logam mulia masih menjadi pilihan alternatif investasi agar nilai keuntungan tidak tergerus angka inflasi. Terlihat, dalam dua hari terakhir, transaksi akan produk logam mulia tersebut cukup tinggi. Kondisi ini juga terjadi pada 19 juni lalu saat The Fed juga mengatakan hal yang sama. Jika dilihat dari awal tahun, harga emas telah melonjak sebesar 11 persen. Beberapa hal yang mempengaruhi kenaikan harga emas tersebut adalah sentimen akan kebijakan Bank Sentral Amerika dan juga sentimen akan konflik geopolitik di Ukraina dan Irak. Jika dihitung sejak Desember 2008 atau sejak Amerika mengalami krisis dan The Fed mengeluarkan kebijakan suku bunga rendah, kenaikan harga emas mencapai 70 persen. (Gdn) (Arthur Gideon) Source:http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2072226/pernyataan-yellen-bikin-harga-emas-merangkak-naik |
| 3 July 2014 - Indian Central Bank plans to swap Gold to improve reserves quality Posted: 03 Jul 2014 03:53 AM PDT Thursday, July 3rd 03:42 PM IST The Indian Central bank, as a step towards improving the management of its reserves, has sought quotes from banks to swap gold in its own vaults for international-standard gold. MUMBAI(Bullion Street): The Indian Central bank, as a step towards improving the management of its reserves, has sought quotes from banks to swap gold in its own vaults for international-standard gold. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to offload some of its relatively impure gold onto the local market, subject to the approval of government, which would in turn help to ease supply shortages arising from import curbs. The RBI said the operation would "standardise the gold available with RBI in India with respect to international standards like London Good Delivery" and the gold acquired would be delivered to its overseas custodian, the Bank of England. |
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