Gold price | <b>Gold Price</b> Doesn't Fall Despite Dollar Rally – Finally a Show of <b>...</b> |
- <b>Gold Price</b> Doesn't Fall Despite Dollar Rally – Finally a Show of <b>...</b>
- Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Are Rallying, All Indicators are Pointing Up
- <b>Gold Price</b> Long-term Forecast Using Statistics & Technical Analysis <b>...</b>
| <b>Gold Price</b> Doesn't Fall Despite Dollar Rally – Finally a Show of <b>...</b> Posted: 14 May 2014 01:02 PM PDT By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday was another day during which the precious metals sector didn't really decline (just a little) despite a move higher in the USD Index. Let's check if the situation is bullish now (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). Starting with gold, we saw a small move lower, which might appear slightly bullish given that the move materialized on low volume. This might have been a suggestion that the move lower was not the true direction in which the market was moving, but that was not really the case. The above is the case, in general, for an opposite situation – if a given market moves higher on very small volume, then it indicates that the buying power is drying up and that prices are about to move lower. The situation is not symmetrical, because the price doesn't stay at the same level when there are no buyers and no sellers – it declines. In short, yesterday's price-volume action is only slightly bearish. What's more interesting is that the first 2 days of this week are quite similar to the first 2 days of the last week. We saw a sizable decline after this 2-day action last week, so we can say that it's a quite bearish pattern on its own. There was only 1 situation similar to the last 2 days, so the implications are not strongly bearish, but the closeness of the situation and the level of similarity make it bearish. We can actually see a similar kind of 2-day pattern in the GDX ETF. Again, the implications are rather bearish. The mining stock sector is close to the March and April lows, and with each local high being lower than the previous one, it seems that we might finally see a breakdown this month. The precious metals sector usually declines in the middle of May, so we have bearish implications also from this perspective. On the other hand, the bullish fact is that the above-mentioned small-volume decline materialized when the USD Index moved higher and was already after a sizable rally. We previously commented on the USD Index in the following way: The US dollar moved higher in the past few days and it's about to take out the important declining resistance line that stopped the previous rally earlier this year. Once it moves above it, we are likely to see a strong upswing, which could translate into a big decline on the precious metals market. It seems quite likely in our view. The USD Index moved higher and above the declining resistance line. It's now more or less as much above it as it was during the previous attempt to move lower. Since the previous move failed, it seems to us that traders are waiting for some kind of confirmation that this breakout is a sustainable one. As such, it might not have had a bullish impact on the precious metals market just yet. It doesn't mean, however, that we won't see any in the coming days. There have been cases when precious metals' reaction was simply delayed. This could still be the case, and we are not yet convinced that metals are showing true strength here. The short-term USD Index chart reveals that there is one additional resistance lvel that needs to be taken out before the USD can rally much higher – the declining line based on the February and April highs. Once we have the USD Index above this line and the breakout is confirmed, traders should become convinced that the next move in the U.S. dollar is up, and that's when we might see metals and miners finally respond to the USD Index' strength (by declining). Summing up, the outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks remains bearish, but not extremely bearish, which means that we don't increase the size of the short position just yet. To summarize: Trading capital (our opinion): Short positions (half) in: gold, silver, and mining stocks with the following stop-loss orders: - Gold: $1,326 Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website. As always, we'll keep our subscribers updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send them our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional ones whenever appropriate. If you'd like to receive them, please subscribe today. Thank you. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com * * * * * About Sunshine Profits Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing. Disclaimer All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| Silver and <b>Gold Prices</b> Are Rallying, All Indicators are Pointing Up Posted: 14 May 2014 07:48 PM PDT
Today the GOLD PRICE broke through the $1,295 barrier to race $11.10 (0.86%) up to the next resistance at $1,305. Closed $1,305.70. Silver jumped 23.1 cents (1.2%) to 1973.5c, through the 1950c level that has so long stymied it. The SILVER PRICE now stands above its 20 DMA & today at its 2000c high punched into the 50 DMA (1999c). It is clean broken out above its downtrend line from the February 2218c high. Y'all are catching this, right? Broke out upside. MACD indicator positive, ROC positive, RSI positive, Full Stochastics positive. I'm positive it's positive. The GOLD PRICE finally punctured its 200 DMA ($1,299.76) & at its $1,309.20 high bumped the upper boundary of its even-sided triangle. Okay, take stock: Above 20 DMA ($1,294.86)? check. Above 200 DMA? Check. Thrice bounced off lower triangle boundary line? Check. Ready to smash through 50 dma ($1,311.75)? Check. Volume rise today? Check. Other indicators pointing up? Check. There it is, indicators all lined up and pointing skyward for silver & gold prices. Up above gold needs to better the last high at $1,315.80. Silver bettered its last high today ('twas 1977c) but didn't close there. Friends, it looks like the next rally has begun. Whoops, one more little fact: PALLADIUM PRICE & PLATINUM PRICE both rose strongly, up $11.15 and $30.20. Today's breakout takes platinum over its downtrend line from it 2011 high. Palladium has been above that line since 1 March. So the white metals are agreeing with the silver & gold price rally. Surprise, surprise, the London Silver Fix Company announced today it will cease operations as of 14 August, after 117 years. No doubt this comes from heat stocked by the LIBOR interest rate fixing scandal. You have to wonder what sort of goofs or toadies government regulators must be if they don't get that "fix" means price fixing. If you and I conspired to fix the price of arm garters, regulators would be all over us like ugly on an ape, but you let gigantic corporations in London do it and acute regulatory blindness sets in. After LIBOR exploded the London Gold Fix came under investigation. Durn! You mean -- nahh, it couldn't be -- that those venerable institutions might be manipulating the gold price in the gold FIX? To their own PROFIT? Deutsche Bank, under fire for its role in the LIBOR scandal, withdrew from the Gold Fix and has withdrawn from the silver fix, leaving only two participants. Britain's regulators have asked DB to stay on until the August cessation. This doesn't mark the end of government attempts to manipulate silver & gold prices, but it will make it more difficult, and it does bring us one small step closer to unfettered markets where the participants actually discover the price, rather than the government setting it. Stocks today fell like your granddad's upper plate into a well, leaving behind that little stalk-thingey -- okay, "tower" -- formation that often marks a reversal. Dow dropped 101.47 points (0.61%) to 16,613.97. SP500 lost 8.92 (0.47%) to 1,888.53. Don't count stocks out yet, but they have fulfilled my time expectations. Might still make one higher high in the next few days. NEVERTHELESS, LISTEN: It is time y'all ought to swap stocks for silver & gold. I know it seems a mite early, but today the Dow in Silver broke down through its 20 DMA and through its uptrend line, after a lower high last week than the May 1 high. Closed today down 1.69% at 840.15 oz (S$1,086.25). Dow in gold also fell through its 20 DMA (12.76 oz). Fell 1.5% to 12.72 oz (G$262.95 gold dollars). Why rush things? Why not wait for further confirmation? Because stocks are running out of time to make new highs, and because silver & gold MAY have begun their next leg up today. US dollar index stumbled back 7 basis points (0.09%) to 80.12. Needs yet to close above 80.40 to confirm a rally. Euro looks sick as a hound eating rat poison. Rose a pitiful 0.09% to $1.3715 today, but only after it has left two gaps behind. Euro's throat has been cut. Yen rose 0.36% but that still doesn't change much. It needs to close above 98.5 to punch through the upper boundary of its downtrending trading channel. Today's most interesting development was the gap-down plunge of the 10 year treasury note index to its lowest level since November. This can't be good news for stocks. Generally lower rates help the gold price. My wife Susan had her pacemaker re-programmed in Columbia this morning, then travelled on to Nashville with my daughter Liberty. She went shopping and reported, "I actually walked swiftly through Whole Foods while waiting for Liberty to finish up her doctor's appointment. Walked to car and not nearly so out of breath as yesterday. Can you imagine it's changing already?" I hope so. We are praying that this pacemaker reprogramming would put a stop to Susan's atrial fibrillation. Thank you most kindly for your prayers. © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <b>Gold Price</b> Long-term Forecast Using Statistics & Technical Analysis <b>...</b> Posted: 14 May 2014 01:09 PM PDT By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since the top in gold in 2011 gold has selling off. Depending on how you analyze the market, this 3 year sell off could be seen as consolidation within a major cyclical bull market or that it's in a bear market. But know this, either way, the outlook is bullish, and all gold has to do is find a bottom here and rally above the $1400 per ounce level. This would kick start a major feeding frenzy of gold buying. Gold bear market in the past have on average corrected 33% and lasted a total of 550 days. So if we look at the stats of the current pullback in gold it has dropped 38% and about 700 days long. Time for a bottom and bull market? It sure seems like it. You can see my recent report on the US Dollar and gold forecast. Gold Prediction Technical Outlook:Gold remains in a down trend, but looks to be starting a possible stage 1 basing pattern. Technical analysis is pointing to strength as the MACD moving higher, relative strength, and the down trendline show price and momentum being bullish. A few weeks ago the chart completed a Golden Cross. This is not shown on the chart, but it is when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA. Investors tend to look at this as a major long term buy signal, although I do not use it for any of my analysis or timing of the market. If historical data, statistics, and technical analysis prove to be correct we can expect gold to rise. My gold prediction is for price to reach $2300 – $2500 per ounce within 24 months. Gold Prediction Conclusion:The average gold bull market last roughly 450 days and posts a gain of 95%. So with the current correction which is beyond these levels already, expect price to firm up this year and complete the stage 1 base. Note that until gold breaks out of its Stage 1 Basing pattern, I will remain bearish/neutral on the metal. There is a huge opportunities else where unfolding… Join my email list FREE and get my next article which I will show you about a major opportunity in bonds and a rate spike – www.GoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return. This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis. © 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. |
Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (half) are justified from the risk/reward perspective in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
Here is my gold prediction (silver and gold mining stocks, should be the same) looking forward 24 months.
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