15 May 2014 - Silver highest in a month; gold tops $1,300 level

15 May 2014 - Silver highest in a month; gold tops $1,300 level
14 May 2014 - Global silver demand rises to record high in 2013
14 May 2014 - 罗杰斯：买黄金不买美股未来一两年有买进机会

Posted: 15 May 2014 03:12 AM PDT

From:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ukraine-malaise-keeps-gold-under-pressure-2014-05-14

By Myra P. Saefong and Victor Reklaitis, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver prices settled at their highest level in a month on Wednesday, buoyed by a report that said physical demand for the metal rose to a record last year following news that London Silver Market Fixing Ltd. will end its silver price fixing in mid-August.

Gold prices, meanwhile, topped $1,300 an ounce on the back of a decline in U.S. equities, with some analysts attributing to Ukraine worries and the potential for stimulus measures in Europe.

July silver SIN4 -0.30% rose 23 cents, or 1.2%, to $19.78 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest settlement for a most-active contract since April 14.

Total physical silver demand rose by 13% in 2013 to an all-time high, the survey said, with the rise primarily driven by the 76% increase in retail investment in bars and coins and a sturdy recovery in jewelry and silverware fabrication.

The silver report has also "confirmed our expectations that total identifiable investment demand, which includes physical bar investment, coins and exchange traded funds (ETF) inventories, rose by 27% to a three-year high at 247.2 Million oz last year," said Julian Phillips, founder of and contributor to GoldForecaster.com.

Separately, the London Silver Market Fixing Ltd. said it would no longer publish the London Silver Fixing, with effect from the close on Aug. 14.

Following the announcement, the London Bullion Market Association said it "launched a consultation in order to ensure the best way forward for a London silver daily price mechanism."

Deutsche Bank had resigned from the panel that sets the gold and silver fix prices. The benchmark was set by a conference call between Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia. Deutsche Bank said it has postponed its resignation from the fix until it ends in August, The Wall Street Journal reported.

"Silver has followed gold almost 'in tandem' for the last few years and continues to do so," Phillips said. "The investment demand shown in these figures shows this now in the numbers. I believe it will continue to do so."

Gold tops $1,300

Gold prices also got a boost Wednesday, with prices closing back above $1,300 an ounce.

Gold futures traded higher "in part due to weakness in [U.S.] equities," said Tyler Richey, an analyst for the 7:00's Report, which offers daily markets commentary. "Gold has maintained an inverse relationship with stocks and acted as a solid hedge most of the year, rallying sharply on pull backs in the stock market."

Gold for June delivery GCM4 -0.13% rose $11.10, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,305.90 an ounce on Comex. That was the first settlement for a most-active contract above $1,300 since May 6.

Phillips said he saw only some influence on gold from turmoil in Ukraine.

Source:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ukraine-malaise-keeps-gold-under-pressure-2014-05-14

14 May 2014 - Global silver demand rises to record high in 2013

Posted: 15 May 2014 03:07 AM PDT

From:http://www.miningweekly.com/article/global-silver-demand-rises-to-record-high-in-2013-2014-05-14

By: Henry Lazenby

14th May 2014

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – The global demand for silver bullion has risen to a record high in 2013, boosted by significant growth in silver fabrication, silver coin and strong jewellery demand, the latest instalment of the 'World Silver Survey' has found.

Published on Wednesday, the report found that in 2013 total physical silver demand rose by 13% to just over one-billion ounces, an all-time high that was mainly driven by a 76% increase in retail investment in bars and coins, coupled with a sturdy recovery in jewellery and silverware fabrication.

Prepared by research firm Thomson Reuters GFMS for The Silver Institute, the report found that the largest component of physical silver demand, industrial applications, dipped by less than 1% to 586.6-million ounces, to account for 54% of total physical silver demand.

Asia, however, experienced a 3% increase in silver industrial demand, led by China, where a continued recovery in the electrical and electronics sector, along with gains in the Chinese ethylene oxide industry, took total Asian industrial offtake to a new high. Japan also experienced gains in silver industrial demand.

Last year's recovery in jewellery fabrication was a reflection of the improved economic outlook in the industrialised world, which lifted consumer confidence and retail sales for a 10% increase in jewellery demand at 198.8-million ounces. Global silverware fabrication rose 12% to a three-year high of 50-million ounces, on the back of strong gains in India and China.

Photography demand slipped by 7% to 50.4-million ounces in 2013, posting the slowest percentage decline in nine years.

The global supply of the grey metal declined by 2.7% in 2013, to 978.1-million ounces, impacted mainly by a 24%, or 60.8-million-ounce, slide in silver scrap.

Scrap supply to the market in 2013 experienced the largest year-on-year reduction since the 1980s, which was owing to a combination of softer silver prices and an exhaustion of "distressed" coin and jewellery recycling. As a proportion of total silver supply, scrap dropped to under 20%, after averaging 25% in total supply the previous two years, and this served as a substantial contributor to the physical market deficit posted in 2013.

The net balance had grown by 47-million ounces to 113.3-million ounces.

The silver price averaged $23.79/oz last year, the third-highest nominal average price on record, but still down 24% year-over-year in a particularly volatile time for the entire precious metals complex, the report has found.

Silver mine production grew by 3.4% to reach 819-million ounces. A large portion of the growth was attributable to the primary silver mining sector, which experienced strong growth from the start, along with the ramp-up of operations that entered production in recent years.

Primary silver mine output grew 6%, and accounted for 29% of global silver mine supply. Mexico was the world's leading silver producer, followed by Peru, China, Australia and Russia.

Primary silver mine cash costs stood at $9.27/oz, up 1% in dollar terms. The producer silver hedge book was aggressively reduced last year to stand at 15-million ounces on a delta-adjusted basis.

Supply from above-ground stocks dropped by 23.2% to 199.7-million ounces.

Government sales increased slightly to 7.9-million ounces, an extremely low level considering government disposals averaged 43-million ounces a year from 2002 to 2011.

The report found that the total identifiable investment demand, which includes physical bar investment, coins and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inventories, rose by 27% to a three-year high at 247.2-million ounces last year. The growth was driven mainly by a strong rise in retail purchases of silver bars and coins.

Demand for physical bullion bars more than doubled last year to reach a high of 127.2-million ounces, while purchases of silver coins and medals rose 38% to a record 118.5-million ounces. ETF holdings showed only modest growth in 2013, adding 1.6-million ounces, compared with adding 157.8-million ounces in 2006.

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter

Source:http://www.miningweekly.com/article/global-silver-demand-rises-to-record-high-in-2013-2014-05-14

14 May 2014 - 罗杰斯：买黄金不买美股未来一两年有买进机会

Posted: 14 May 2014 10:13 AM PDT

From:http://news.china.com/finance/11155042/20140514/18500708.html

证券时报记者李辉

国际知名投资家吉姆·罗杰斯近日在接受硬资产投资者网站采访时表示，未来1至2年黄金还有买进机会，美国股市一些板块出现泡沫，他不会买美国股票。

2013年金价大跌29%，今年出现了反弹。金价一度逼近1400美元，目前在1300美元附近徘徊。

对于金价短期走势，罗杰斯表示不擅长择时操作，也不是一个短期交易者，因此完全没想过短期会怎么走。罗杰斯认为，未来1到2年金价还会有买进机会。他称，希望能够足够精明买入黄金，那意味着金价跌破每盎司1000美元；如果美国与伊朗爆发战争，那意味着金价会涨到1600美元。他认为，未来还会有买进黄金的机会，这就是他做了一些对冲的原因，但不会卖出黄金。

乌克兰与俄罗斯之间的冲突，成为国际金融市场投资者关注的一个焦点。对于商品投资者来说，应该关注什么？罗杰斯称，没有什么别的原因能比得上这样一个事实：俄罗斯和乌克兰都是许多商品的重要生产国。尤其是几个世纪以来，乌克兰一直是一个重要的农产品生产国。如果乌克兰的生产中断，相应的农产品市场供应会减少。

今年农产品市场的上涨令不少投资者感到意外，比如美国玉米产量创纪录，但价格上涨了，咖啡价格更是几乎翻倍。罗杰斯对全球农产品价格持乐观看法。他表示，全球农产品的库存接近历史低点。10年来，全球的消费比产量更多，这意味着农产品库存处于很低的水平了，这样下去我们会耗光农民的产量。现在美国农民的平均年龄是58岁，日本农民平均年龄是66岁。在美国，研究公共关系的人比研究农业的还要多。类似因素还有很多。因此，在农产品库存处于低位时，农民越来越少的时候，未来几年农业会爆发危机的，农产品价格会涨到很高很高。

经过长达4年的大幅上涨，现在关于美国股市是否高估有不少争论。罗杰斯认为美国股市有些高估。他认为有些板块泡沫正在形成，比如生物技术板块。有些板块可能存在泡沫，比如社交媒体、科技。他表示，不管美国股市是否定价过高，他是不会买美股。目前美国股市处于历史高点，从全球范围来看，还有许多比这便宜的。

对于美联储货币政策，罗杰斯仍是持批评态度。他称，美联储维持高度宽松的货币政策对于整个世界来说，是一个灾难。美联储这帮官员和学者永远不会在第一时间做出正确的决定。在整个世界的历史上，货币宽松政策从没有持续过这么长时间。短期来看，也许这一做法有用，但是长期来看，没有好处。全球各大央行同时开启印钞机，这是有史以来的第一次。因此，当这一切结束时，对于整个世界来说就是一场灾难。

不过，对于中国经济，罗杰斯表达了看似有些矛盾的看法。对于中国经济增速转向放缓，罗杰斯表示，在这方面很少有国家能够做得好。一段时间以来，中国一直在试图降低经济增速，中国一直在努力解决通胀、房地产等方面面临的问题，中国经济出现减速，这很正常。

不过，他也提醒，最近的10-20年里，中国经济没有出现大的问题，这太不寻常了。美国经济在达到当前的地位前有过15次经济衰退。对于一个国家、公司、家庭或者个人来说，在成长的道路中出现挫折太正常了。

对于最近做过的一些交易，或者打算做的交易，罗杰斯表示，他有一些农产品指数产品，打算买些俄罗斯股票。他还表示，由于债务问题和房地产问题，中国市场现在还缺乏吸引力。不过，有些消息令人兴奋，那就是中国政府决定让市场在资源配置中起决定性作用，这对于中国乃至世界都是好消息。

Source:http://news.china.com/finance/11155042/20140514/18500708.html

15 May 2014 - Silver highest in a month; gold tops $1,300 level

15 May 2014 - Silver highest in a month; gold tops $1,300 level

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